ICICI Pru PMS Contra Strategy - Presentation - April 2024 (D)
ICICI Pru PMS Contra Strategy - Presentation - April 2024 (D)
All data/information used in the preparation of this material is dated and may or may not be relevant any time after the issuance of this material. ICICI Prudential Asset Management
Company Limited (the Portfolio Manager/ the AMC) takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The recipient of this material is solely
responsible for any action taken based on this material. The information contained herein are strictly confidential and are meant solely for the benefit of the addressee and shall not be
altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of the AMC. Further,
the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. Past performance of the Portfolio Manager may not be indicative of the performance in the future. Please
refer to pagecontained
The information 27-28 for risk
herein factors
is solely and circulation
for private disclaimers.
for reading/understanding of registered distributors and should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. 1
Index
II Investment Framework
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2
2
Key Drivers of Stock Price
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Drivers of Stock Price
The aforesaid factors/framework are only indicative. There may be other factors that may be relevant for determination of stock prices. P/E – Price to earnings, EPS – Earnings per share.
The information contained herein is solely for private circulation for reading/understanding of registered distributors and should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. 4
Markets Reward Companies with
Earnings Potential
Universe of top NSE 500 Companies by Market Cap (Dec 2007 – Dec 2023)
Source: Nuvama, NSE | Data as on Dec 31, 2023 | Profit Growth: Reported Profit After Tax. Return/Market Cap between December 31, 2007 to December 31, 2023 | Universe of top 500 NSE Listed companies
by Marketcap over the 15 year period. Past Performance may or may not sustain in future.
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The Trend has Changed
500
Index EPS 443
450
“There are decades S&P BSE Sensex - EPS
where nothing 400
S&P BSE Midcap - EPS
happens; and there
are weeks where 350 S&P BSE Smallcap - EPS
299
decades happen” 300
- Vladimir Ilyich
250
192
200
150
100 100 100 108 111 100
100
50
Apr-15 Dec-19 Dec-23
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Nifty 50 Index Movement
1027.5
22,604 132%
1 April 2021
52% 30 April 2024
33.6 4.3
-7% Change (%)
-35%
14,867 442.5 1 April 2021 to
3.9 30 April 2024
22.0
Source: Index Values -NSE India Limited. Data as on April 30, 2024. PE – Price to Earnings of Nifty 50 Index constituents | EPS – Earnings per Share of Nifty 50 Index constituents. Past Performance may or may not
sustain in future
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Investment Framework
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Investment Framework
In search of companies
with meaningful earnings
growth and sustainable
competitive advantage
1 Business
2 Management M V Valuation 3
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The Circle of Competence
Meaningful
Growth
Improving
HHI#
The aforesaid factors/framework are only indicative. There may be other factors that may be relevant for identification/selection of stock. All these factors may not be applicable for the investment approach,
The factor shall be referred as applicable. #HHI refers to the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, a commonly accepted measure of market/segment concentration. *Moat: A competitive sustainable advantage
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Evaluation, Selection and Sizing
The aforesaid factors/framework are only indicative. There may be other factors that may be relevant for identification/selection of stock depending upon the varied market conditions.
BMV – Business – Management – Valuation | *The number of companies is indicative and may increase or decrease based on the discretion of Investment Manager.
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Key Themes for CY2024
Increased power India's low urbanization Policymaker-led digital Innovation in financial Shift towards
connectivity expansion sparks urban center adoption boosts GST services amid rising experiential consumption,
driving higher opportunities, revitalizing collections, focusing on income levels and with people preferring
investments in the energy organized real estate strategic sectors like demand for financial experiences over goods
value chain. after a decade long down defense and railways. products. consumption.
cycle
Source: Oxfam Report 2022, Bernstein Analysis | The Stock(s)/Sector(s) mentioned in this material do not constitute any recommendation of the same and portfolio may or may not have any future
positions in these stock(s)/Sector(s)
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Research Team
*The above mentioned sectors does not represent a list of exhaustive sectors. Research team which includes Equity Research analysts across the business activities engaged by the AMC. IPAMC: ICICI
Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. Note: Investment team shall be supported by the dealing team and common research team
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Portfolio Management Team
ANAND SHAH
Head – PMS & AIF Investment
Fund Managers
**We have an integrated common research team which includes Equity Research analysts across the business activities engaged by ICICI Prudential Asset
Management Company Ltd. Note: Portfolio Managers form a part of the Investment team and they shall be supported by the dealing and research teams
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PRESENTING
CONTRA STRATEGY
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Contrarian Investing: How it works?
Consolidation in Industry:
Industry challenges leading to reduction in players. Distress exits may
create growth opportunities for existing players.
Special Situations:
This may include, Mergers, Acquisitions, Changes in Holding-
Subsidiary company, Product or department spin offs, etc.
The aforesaid points are only indicative. There may be other factors that may be relevant for identification of a contrarian investing opportunity.
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Contrarian Investing: How it works?
Parameters such as RoE, RoCE, Market Cap by Cash Profit, P/E, Corporate Governance &
Capital Allocation Track Record are used to determine investability.
The aforesaid points are only indicative. There may be other factors that may be relevant for identification of a contrarian investing opportunity.
RoE – Return on equity, RoCE – Return on Capital Employed, P/E – Price to Earnings
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Key Features of the Investment Approach
Investment Objective: ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Strategy (the “Contra Strategy”) seeks to generate capital appreciation by
investing predominantly in equity and equity related instruments through contrarian investing.
Strategy : Equity
Types of Securities: The Contra Strategy predominantly invests in listed equity and equity related securities. The Contra Strategy
may also take exposure to exchange traded derivative instruments for hedging purpose. For liquidity or defensive considerations or
pending deployment, the Portfolio Manager may invest in debt, money market instruments, mutual fund schemes or debt ETFs.
Key Investmeant Horizon: Benchmark Index: Investment across Minimum Investment Amount:
Features 4 Years & Above S & P BSE 500 TRI Market capitalisations Rs. 50,00,000
The investment strategy, approach and the structure of the Contra strategy herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under
differing market conditions or cycles. The investment strategy and the composition of the portfolio as stated herein is only indicative in nature and is subject to change within
the provisions of the disclosure document and portfolio management services agreement. Please refer to the disclosure document & portfolio management services agreement
for details and risk factors. The details of investment approach mentioned here are brief subset of details mentioned in the Disclosure Document(DD). Clients should refer the
DD before investing and the same is available on the website of Portfolio Manager – https://iciciprualternates.com/Investor .The investment process mentioned above are
indicative in nature. There may be other investment process for stock selection.
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Some Alpha
Stories
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Consolidation in Industry: Telecom Sector
INR Crores
60,000.00
globally in terms of subscribers. The Top 2 companies in the telecom
50,000.00
sector account for over 70% of the wireless market share, one of them
40,000.00
being Bharti Airtel (36% share) as on April 30, 2023 in India, which is
it’s all time high. 30,000.00
20,000.00
• As on March 31, 2023 the company had a 20%YoY jump in data traffic FY2023 FY2022 FY2021 FY2020
and a 69% growth in data subscribers since September 2016.
EBITDA
• ARPU at Rs203 is up 95% from lows in Q2FY19 of 103.
ARPU (Rs.) 74% rise in 4 Years
• The Company is ramping up 5G services alongside; since its 5G launch 203
183 193
in October 2022 its data subs addition at 14 million. 178
135 143 145 146
117
In Rs.
Source: Company Research Report by CLSA Limited, Industry Report (FY2023) by Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, Company Update. EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation;
ARPU – Average Revenue Per User. The Stock(s)/Sector(s) mentioned in this material do not constitute any research analysis or recommendation of the same and portfolio may or may not have any future
positions in these stock(s)/Sector(s). As on April 30, 2024, the portfolio has an exposure to Bharti Airtel Ltd.
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Consolidation in the Supply Chain: Ferrous Metals
ROE is likely to continue to rise
Tata Steel Limited ROE (%)
50 42.6
• There is consolidation in the steel sector globally due to China’s carbon 40
neutral move, inventory tightness and removal of VAT Rebates on 30
18.5
exports by the Chinese Government. 20 12.3 14.4 15.1 12.8
10 6.9
0
• Tata Steel Limited has presence across the entire value chain of steel -10
manufacturing from mining and processing iron ore and coal to -20
-9.2
producing and distributing finished products. FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023
Leverage reduces sharply with improvement in earnings
• Due to captive iron mines owned by the Company it has a resource Net Debt/EBITDA ratio
moat as it can procure raw materials at low costs. 8
5.9
6
4.4
• The consolidated adjusted net leverage falling below 3.0x, on a 4 3.3 3.2
2.7
sustained basis, are some of the factors which may be positives in the 2 0.9
1.6
future, for the growth of the Company.
0
FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023
Source: Tata Steel Limited Annual Reports
Source: www.nseindia.com , Company Research report by Kotak Securities, Stock Updated by CITI Research
EBITDA – Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization | ROE – Return on Equity
The Stock(s)/Sector(s) mentioned in this material do not constitute any recommendation of the same and portfolio may or may not have any future positions in these stock(s)/Sector(s).Past Performance may or
may not sustain in future. Further, the above transactions are the transactions in the portfolio of the oldest client .The actual portfolio composition or the transactions shall vary from client to client. Please refer
to the information available on the PMS portal to review the composition and transaction details in the portfolio. As on April 30, 2024, the portfolio has an exposure to Tata Steel Ltd.
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Current Portfolio
Positioning
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Portfolio Statistics
As on April 30, 2024
• Aggregate earnings growth with improved capital efficiency (ROE) over three years
• Earnings growth outpacing stock returns, positions risk-reward favourably
ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Strategy 39.19% 29.38% 14.37 15.21 2.59 16.90
1TTM PAT of companies declared results up to December 2023 vs corresponding TTM period three years ago
Source: Financial data from Nuvama Securities, www.bseindia.com, Morning Star | Profit Growth - Aggregate profit after tax growth (TTM vs TTM PY) of portfolio companies under each Strategy as on
December 31, 2023 | P/E – Price to Earning | P/B – Price to Book Value | Valuations are of the aggregate portfolio under each Strategy. The portfolio data mentioned above is of the oldest client and data
of an individual client may vary significantly from the above. The Strategy features mentioned herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market
conditions or cycles. Please refer to the disclosure document & client agreement for details and risk factors. Above details represents dated facts of the underlying portfolio companies depending on the
varied prevailing market and economic conditions. Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
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ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Strategy
as of April 30, 2024
Aggregate Returns
Contra Strategy 5.73% 9.59% 32.90% 52.80% 32.11% 29.38% 37.46% 25.01% 22.96%
S&P BSE 500 TRI 3.44% 6.05% 25.01% 38.63% 20.19% 20.46% 28.62% 18.21% 16.08%
For performance relative to other Portfolio Managers within the Strategy by Association of Portfolio Managers in India (APMI) visit: APMI (apmiindia.org).
Performance data provided herein is not verified by SEBI.
Contra Strategy – ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Strategy
Index Data Source: www.bseindia.com | Strategy performance mentioned above is the aggregate performance of all Clients in the Strategy using the Time Weighted Rate of Return (TWRR) methodology and the
performance of an individual Client may vary significantly from the above. Returns for one year or less are on absolute basis, while returns more than one year are on annualized basis. All the returns calculated
above are after deduction of the applicable expenses. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and is no guarantee of future results. Please note that performance of your portfolio may vary from
that of other clients and that generated by the Investment Approach across all clients because of 1) the timing of inflows and outflows of funds; and 2) differences in the portfolio composition because of
restrictions and other constraints. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and is no guarantee of future results. clients may note that the entity level performance of the Portfolio Manager is
disclosed in the Disclosure Document and the same is available on the website of Portfolio Manager - https://iciciprualternates.com/Investor
The information contained herein is solely for private circulation for reading/understanding of registered distributors and should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. 25
Key Highlights of The Investment Approach
Investment Objective: ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Strategy (the “Contra Strategy”)seeks to generate capital appreciation by investing
predominantly in equity and equity related instruments through contrarian investing
Strategy : Equity
Types of securities: Predominantly invests in listed equity and equity related securities. The Strategy may also take exposure to exchange traded
derivative instruments for hedging purpose. For liquidity or defensive considerations or pending deployment, the Portfolio Manager may invest in
debt, money market instruments, mutual fund schemes or debt ETFs.
Basis for Selection of securities: The Portfolio Manager follows ‘Contra’ style of investing which involves taking contrarian bets on equity stocks i.e.
taking calls/exposure on stocks which are currently not in favour in the market but are expected to do well in the long run. The Portfolio Manager may
also select stocks of companies in sectors where entry barriers are high, sectors in consolidation or of companies in special situation.
Investment Horizon: 4 years and above | Inception Date: September 14, 2018 | Benchmark: S&P BSE 500 TRI | Minimum Investment: ₹ 50 Lacs
The investment strategy, approach and the structure of the strategy herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market conditions or cycles. The
investment strategy and the composition of the portfolio as stated herein is only indicative in nature and is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document and client agreement
without any prior notice to investors. Please refer to the disclosure document & client agreement for details and risk factors. Investment Objective in line with Disclosure Document (DD). Basis of selection
of securities, Risks associated with Strategy specific investment approach mentioned here are brief subset of details mentioned in the DD. Investors should refer the DD before investing and the same is
available on the website of Portfolio Manager – https://iciciprualternates.com/Investor
The information contained herein is solely for private circulation for reading/understanding of registered distributors and should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. 26
Strategy Specific Risks & Disclaimer
Risks associated with ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Strategy investment approach:
• The Contra Strategy predominantly select stocks following a Contrarian style of investing.
• There could be time periods when securities selected based on their relevancy to the investment style followed by the Portfolio Manager underperform
relative to other stocks or the overall markets. This could impact performance.
• The Contra Strategy aims at maintaining a diversified portfolio without any undue concentration in any sector or stock and the portfolio may
underperform relative to concentrated portfolios during certain periods of time.
• The Contra Strategy invests across market capitalisations. Hence, risks relevant to investing in small and mid-cap stocks are also applicable for the
strategy.
• In addition to the above, the Portfolio would be subject to the following risks, which are elaborated in the Risk Factors section of the Disclosure
Document:
– Risks related to equity and equity related instruments
– Risks related to derivative investments
– Risks related to investments in debt and debt related instruments
.
The above mentioned risk factors and general risk factors relating to the Portfolio are elaborated in the 'Risk Factors' section of the Disclosure Document. https://iciciprualternates.com/Investor
The information contained herein is solely for private circulation for reading/understanding of registered distributors and should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. 27
Risk Factors & Disclaimers
Mr. Anand Shah is the Head of PMS & AIF Investments. He oversees all PMS Strategies offered by ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (the AMC/ Portfolio Manager). The
performance of the stock across Individual portfolios may vary significantly from the data depicted above. This is due to factors such as timing of entry and exit, timing of additional flows and
redemptions, individual client mandates, specific portfolio construction characteristics or structural parameters which may have a bearing on individual portfolio performance. No claims may be made
or entertained for any variances between the above performance depictions and that of the stock within individual client portfolios. There is no assurance that the value may be unlocked during our
holding period of the stock. Investor’s may note that the entity level performance of the Portfolio Manager is disclosed in the Disclosure Document and the same is available on the website of Portfolio
Manager – www.iciciprupms.com. Performance data provided herein is not verified by SEBI.
Investment in securities involves investment risks such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including the possible loss of principal. The value of the portfolio may be affected by
changes in the general market conditions, factors and forces affecting capital market. There can be no assurance that the objective of the Portfolio would be achieved. Investors are advised to refer to
the Disclosure Document, Portfolio Management Services Agreement and other related documents carefully and consult their legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible legal, tax and
financial or any other consequences of investing/ redeeming under this Portfolio, before making a decision. Please note that performance of one investor in the portfolio may vary significantly from that
of other investors and that generated by the Investment Approach across all investors because of 1) the timing of inflows and outflows of funds; and 2) differences in the portfolio composition because
of restrictions and other constraints.
The details pertaining to the investment approach mentioned herein is a subset of details specified in the Disclosure Document. Kindly refer the Disclosure Document for the detailed investment
approach, including specific risk factors, before investing. The stock(s)/Sector(s) mentioned in this material do not constitute any recommendation of the same and the portfolios may or may not have
any future positions in these Stock(s)/Sector(s). The composition of the portfolio is subject to changes within the provisions of the Disclosure Document. The benchmark of the portfolios can be
changed from time to time in the future in accordance with the regulatory provisions. No claims may be made or entertained for any variances between the performance depictions and individual
portfolio performance or for any losses (notional or real) or against any loss of opportunity for gain under various PMS Strategies. The Portfolio Manager (including its affiliates) and any of its
employee/officers’, directors shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way
arising from the use of this material in any manner. The recipient(s) alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on the basis of this material. The investments discussed in this may
not be suitable for all investors. Please note that past performance of the financial strategies, instruments and the portfolio does not necessarily indicate the future prospects and performance thereof.
Such past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The investors are not being offered any guaranteed or assured returns.
In the preparation of this material, the Portfolio Manager has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used herein may have been
obtained from members/persons other than the Portfolio Manager and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the Portfolio Manager and/ or to its affiliates. Information gathered
and material used herein is believed to be from reliable sources. The Portfolio Manager however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and/or completeness of any information. For data
reference to any third party in this material no such party will assume any liability for the same. The Portfolio Manager has included statements/opinions/recommendations in this material, which
contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ
materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general
economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, the money and interest policies of India, inflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices,
the performance of the financial markets in India and globally, changes in domestic and foreign laws, regulations and taxes and changes in competition in the industry.
All data/ information used in the preparation of this material is dated as mentioned in the portfolio data and may or may not be relevant any time after the issuance of this material. The Portfolio
Manager takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited is registered with SEBI as a Portfolio
Manager vide registration number INP000000373.
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Thank You
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