Module 5 A probability experiment is a process
that leads to well-defined outcomes, but
Probability the specific outcome cannot be
predicted in advance.
The sample space is the set of
all possible outcomes of a The probability of an event
probability experiment. is the proportion of times the event
would occur in a long series of repetitions.
An event is a single Can only be calculated
outcome or a collection of as an experiment is repeated.
outcomes from the sample The longer the proportion of times an
space. event occurs the closer approaches its
probability (Law of Large Numbers).
always between 0 and 1;
0 (cannot occur); An event with a small probability
1 (certain to occur) (less than 0.05) is considered
If all outcomes in a sample space unusual
are equally likely, the probability
of an event A is:
A or B Two events are mutually
exclusive if they cannot both
Empirical Method:
Approximate
A compound event occur at the same time. probabilities by
combines two or There are no common repeating experiments
more events outcomes in their and using the observed
sample space.
frequency.
“or” Simulation: Use
NOT mutually exclusive: two events that share outcomes technology to mimic
in their sample space must correct for double-counting. experiments and
estimate probabilities
when actual repetition
This is the General Addition Rule is impractical
B|A
The conditional probability
of event B given event A is:
A and AC
The complement of event A, denoted AC,
is the event that A does not occur.
Complements are always mutually exclusive and
...means that this is the probability that together cover the entire sample space
B occurs assuming A has occurred
This is the General Multiplication Rule
“at least”
“B given A”
A affects B then, B is dependent of A:
“A and B”
“... is replaced” “A and B”
A DOES NOT affects B then,
“...not replaced”
B is independent of A
A random variable represents
the numerical value of the outcome Module 6
Because of a probability experiment.
It is typically denoted by an
Probability
A probability distribution UPPERCASE letter. Distributions
specifies the probability
for each possible value A random variable is
of a discrete random variable. A random variable is continuous if it can
discrete if the number take on any value
Properties: of possible outcomes is within an interval.
Each probability P(x) must be finite or countable.
between 0 and 1.
The sum of all probabilities ..on Module 7
must equal 1
Histograms visually
represent the probability random
variable probability
distribution of a discrete
The mean is the expected value if the random variable.
L1 x L2 P(X)
experiment is repeated many times.
VarStat (List, frequency)
It represents the center of the probability distribution.
The square root of the variance
is the standard deviation of the
probability distribution.
The variance measures the spread
of the probability distribution. Expected Value:
Used in gambling, business, and insurance
to predict average gains or losses over time.
A positive expected value of x indicates an expected gain;
a negative value indicates an expected loss
"Probability helps you make better
choices — like calculating the
chance you’ll actually finish your
homework before midnight!"
