Section 3.

Probability

目录
3.1 Events .............................................................................................................................................2

Key1. Event Basics..........................................................................................................................2

Key2. Notation and Venn Diagrams.......................................................................................4

3.2. Probability.....................................................................................................................................8

Key3. Probability Basics..............................................................................................................8

Key4. Probability in Venn Diagrams.....................................................................................13

Key5. Conditional Probability..................................................................................................19

Key6. Independent Events and Mutually Exclusive Events.........................................23

Key7. Tree Diagrams..................................................................................................................26

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3.1 Events

 Key1: Event Basics

 Definitions:
1) Experiment: repeatable activity that has a result that can be observed or
recorded. It is what is happening in a question.

2) Trial: Each repeat of an experiment. E.g., For experiment as tossing a dice,

each toss is a trial.

3) Outcome: the result of each trial from an experiment.

4) Sample space: a list/set/table that includes all possible outcomes for an

experiment,usually denoted by S.

5) Event: an outcome or a collection of outcomes that we are interested in

happening,

E.g., Tina is throwing two fair four-sided spinners and she would gain or lose
scores that is the product of the sides showing when spun. The first spinner
has four sides as -1, 0 , 1, 2 and the second has sides -3, -1 , 1, 3. She would
win the game if she scores a 6, and lose the game if she loses money by
scoring negatively.

-- Experiment: throwing two fair four-sides spinners

-- Outcome: the product of the pair of sides shown from the two
spinners each time she spins them
-- Sample space:

-- Event:
 “Winning the game”. This event has only 1 outcome as she spins a 2
and a 3 as a pair.
 “Losing the game”. This event has 5 outcomes as when she scores -3,
-6, -2 each once and -1 twice.

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Example:

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 Key2: Notation and Venn Diagram for Events

 Terminology for Events:

1) We can denote Events as Event A, B, C or etc. E.g, in last example, we can
define Event “Winning the game” as Event A and “Losing the game” as
Event B.

2) Venn Diagram:
-- used to illustrate events especially when outcomes of different events
overlap
-- mostly used for 2 or 3 events
-- consists of a box that represent the sample space S, and bubbles/circles
that each represent an event
 The box represents all the outcomes included in S called as the
Universal Set, usually labelled with S, U or §
 The bubbles are labelled with their event name (A,B,etc.) and inside
are the outcomes each event collects. So if two events overlap, it
means they have some common outcomes.
 The numbers inside a Venn diagram (one number in each closed
region) either represents a frequency (number of outcomes) or
probability (the probability of those outcomes to happen)

a. For frequency, the sum of the numbers = the total frequency in

the sample space.
b. For probability, the sum of the numbers = 1 (We shall discuss it
later).

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 Say in a class of 50 students, 30 students like maths, 25 like biology, and
15 like both then what is the number of students who like neither of them?

First, let’s define Event A as loving math, Event B as loving biology.

A contains: all the students who likes math as outcomes of survey.
B contains: all the students who likes biology

-- “not A”: means Event A does not happen, called Complement event of
A.

Formally written as : ( pronunced as A prime, sometimes as , pronounced

as A bar)

The unshaded region =A= students who love math=30 of them

The shaded region = = students who doesn’t love math=50-30=20 of them

-- “A and B”: means both the Events happen at the same time.

Formally written as : ( the symbol called intersection)

In this case, “A and B “ means “ loving both math and biology”

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 All outcomes within the box S(Sample Space) = all 50 students
outcomes within and on the circle A = students who love math
outcomes within and on the circle B = students who love biology

The shaded region = = students who love both math and biology = 15 of
them

-- “A or B”: means either Event A or B happens, or both happen.

Formally written as : ( the symbol called union)

In this case, “A or B “ means “students loving either math or biology”

The shaded region = = students who love either math or biology =

30+25-15=40 of them

Back to our question, what is the number of students who like neither of
them?

The blank region = students likes neither A nor B = 50-40=10 of them

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 (AUB)’ = the complement event of AUB

Example:

Draw a Venn Diagram to represent the three groups.

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3.2 Probabilities

 Key3: Probability Basics

 Probability of events:

1)

Note: the outcomes must be equally likely to happen, and All probabilities
are non-negative

E.g., In the first spinning example, If we denote Event A as “winning the

game”, then

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 , Since here there is only one outcome as throwing a 2 and a 3 to
score 6 that can lead to the occurrence of event A, and the number of total
possible outcomes is 16.

2) Law of total Probability: The sum of probabilities of all outcomes in an

experiment is 1.
Note: It is not “all events”.

where, xi(s) are all possible outcomes for random variable X in sample
space S.

E.g., Tossing a fair two-sided coin returns two possible outcomes: Tail,
Head.

P(Head)=P(Tail)=0.5

So, P(Head)+P(Tail)=1

Tossing a fair six-sided coin returns 6 possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

P(1)=P(2)=P(3)=P(4)=P(5)=P(6)=1/6

So, P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)+P(5)+P(6)=1

3) Probability of Complement events:

Say, the probability of today raining = 0.3, if we define Experiment as

“today’s weather”, then the possible outcomes are {rainy, not rainy}. By the
Law of Total Probabilities,

P(rainy today) + P(not rainy today) = 1

Now, if we define Event A= “It rains today”, then Event A’= It doesn’t rain
today” such that:
P(A)+P(A’) = 1

Therefore, given some event A, to find the probability of its complement

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event, we apply:

4) : means the probability of random variable X less than or

equal to 4 is 0.4.

Now, If we define Event A = “X taking values less than or equal to 4”, then
Event A’ = “X taking values greater than 4”. By the law of total probability and
the probability of complement events, we can obtain:

whereby, : means the probability of random variable X greater

than 4 is equal to 0.6.

5) Relative Frequency: the number of times an event occurs divided by the

total number of events occurring in a given scenario.

E.g. Ellie surveys a group of students in her school to learn about their favorite
sport. The data collected has been presented below. What will be the relative
frequency for volleyball?

In this case,
Experiment = Surveying on favorite sport among a population

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 Trial = Each time surveying a student. #of trials = # of students
Outcome= Getting a response (a specific sports choice) from a surveyed
student

So, around 2 out 7 people in Ellie’s case like volleyball the best.

Now, Let’s define Event A = “favors volleyball the best”

Recall:

,
where all outcomes equally likely to happen(true in this context since each
student’s response is recorded equally and unbiasedly)

Then here,

Note: we use here rather than . It is because the probability observed in

Ellie’s experiment cannot well represent the probability of other populations in
general. It is only an estimated probability. The more trials we do, the
larger sample space we would obtain, the finer the estimated probability it
would become to better represent a huge population in general (closer to
actual probability).

Therefore, when n tends to be infinitely large, i.e., an infinite series of trials

we experiment over, the relative frequency tends to approach the actual
probability.

Probability: is the relative frequency over an infinite number of trials.

Relative frequency is often used as an estimate of probability.

6) Now, we can use this relative frequency / observed probability to estimate

the actual frequency of an event occuring in a series of trials.

Say, the surveyed population of Ellie’s investigation expands up to 100.

Then what could be an estimated number of people who may like volleyball
the best?

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 There might be around 2000 such people in this sampled population that
favors volleyball than others. We call the estimated frequency as Expectation
(we expect 2000 people to like volleyball).

Expectation: in n trials (e.g., each time surveying a person is a trial,

his/her response is an outcome), Event A is expected to occur n times its
theoretical probability P(A) or relative frequency of Event A observed by a
series of trials.

Example:

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 Key4: Probability in Venn Diagrams

 Probability of events:
1) Recall:
 The numbers in a Venn Diagram will represent either a frequency or a
probability.
 The sum of probabilities =1

2) Probabilities on Venn diagram for different regions overlapping

with two events:

 The relationships between probabilities on the diagram:

E.g. Given the Venn diagram in frequency for events A and B, try to find
the corresponding probabilities.

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Given the information above, we can obtain the following:

-- n=5+8+3+4=20=total outcomes

-- ,

-- ,

--

--

--

--

Now, we can draw another Venn Diagram based on probabilities:

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 We also find that :

1)

2)

3）
4）

Therefore, we conclude that, for two events A and B:

Example:

40 people were surveyed regarding which games consoles they owned.8

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people said they owned a Playstation 5 and an Xbox Series X. 5 people said
they owned neither of these consoles. Of those people that owned only one
games console, twice as many owned an Xbox Series X as a Playstation 5.
One of the 40 people is chosen at random.

Find the probability that this person

i) owns both consoles
ii) owns exactly one console,
iii) doesn’t own a Playstation 5.

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The members of a local tennis club can decide whether to play in a singles
competition, a doubles competition, both or neither. Once all members have
made their choice the chairman of the club selects, at random, one member
to interview about their decision.
S is the event a member selected the singles competition.
D is the event a member selected the doubles competition.

 Key5: Conditional Probability

 Definition: probability of some event, say A, depending on the outcome of

a prior event, say B.

E.g.,
Bag with 6 white and 3 red buttons. One is drawn at random and
not replaced. A second button is drawn. Find the probability that the second
button is white given that the first button is white.

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 Formally writen as:

 Notation and Rules-to-know:

Key word: Given that.

For Event A and B where A occurs prior to B, then the probability of B

given that A occurs is denoted as:

 In Venn diagram:

 Axioms:

1) For any event A,

2) Conditional probability of B given B is 1, i.e.,

3) If A1, A2, A3, A4,..... are disjoint events (not depending on each other),
then

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Example:

I roll a fair die twice and obtain two numbers X1=result of the first roll
and X2= result of the second roll. Given that I know X1+X2=7, what is the
probability that X1=4 or X2=4?

Consider a family that has two children. We are interested in the children's
genders. Our sample space is S={(G,G),(G,B),(B,G),(B,B)}. Also assume that
all four possible outcomes are equally likely.

(i) What is the probability that both children are girls given that the first child
is a girl?

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(ii) We ask the father: "Do you have at least one daughter?" He responds
"Yes!" Given this extra information, what is the probability that both children
are girls? In other words, what is the probability that both children are girls
given that we know at least one of them is a girl?

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 Key6: Independent events and Mutually Exclusive events

 Independent events

1) Definition: Events that do not affect each other, i.e., the probability of
one event happening is unaffected by the outcome of the other event.

E.g.,
The event A “rolling a 6 on a dice” and the event B “flipping heads on a
coin” are independent, since the outcome of Event A as rolling a 6 does
not affect the probability of outcome of Event B as getting a head/tail.

2) If the probability of Event A doesnt influence that of event B, then

.

Since , we obtain:

Therefore,

For two independent events A and B, we have

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 E.g.,

For the event A “rolling a 6 on a dice” and the event B “flipping heads on
a coin”,

 Mutually Exclusive Events:

1) Definition: Events that cannot occur simultaneously, generally referring to

events from the same single trial of an experiment.

E.g.,
The event A “rolling a 6 on a dice” and the event B “rolling a 4 on the
same dice at the same time” are mutually exclusive, since same dice at
one time cannot give both 5 and 6 simultaneously. It’s either 5 or 6.
Therefore A and B are mutually exclusive,

And so: The probability of A and B happening at the same time is zero.

2) If A and B are mutually Exclusive events, then,

-- the probability of A and B happening at the same time is zero, which

gives us:

, and thereby

-- the probability of either A or B happening is:

In summary:

For two mutually exclusive events A and B, we have:

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 E.g.,
For the event A “rolling a 6 on a dice” and the event B “rolling a 5 on the
same dice at the same time”,

Example:

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(a) Two events, Q and R are such that P(Q)=0.8 and P(Q and R)=0.1. Given
that Q and R are independent, find P(R)

(b) Two events, S and T are such that P(S)=2P(T). Given that S and T are
mutually exclusive and that P(S and T)=0.6 find P(S) and P(T).

(c) A fair five-sided spinner has sides labelled 2, 3, 5, 7, 11. Find the
probability that the spinner lands on a number greater than 5.

 Key7: Tree Diagrams

 Tree diagram Definition:

1) used to show the combined outcomes of more than one event that happen
one after the other.

2) helps calulate probabilities when AND and/or OR’s are involved.

3) are very helpful when probabilities for a second event change depending on the first
event.

 How to draw and label a tree diagram:

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E.g., For Dependent events (Second trial is dependent of first trial)

1) Two procedures:
-- Step1: Man’s inviting:
 Two events:
Event T = “to theater” , Event C’ = “to cinema” (complement to T)

 P(T)=0.7 ; P(C)=0.3

-- Step2: Decision made by the sister:

 Two events:
Event A= “accept” , Event R = “reject” (complement to A)

 P(A|T)=0.9 ; P(R|T)=0.1 (complement to P(A|T))

 P(R|C)=0.4 ; P(A|C)=0.6 (complement to P(R|C))

2) Graphing:

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3) Find the probability of the combined outcome.

-- The probability of his sister accepting the invitation to theater

The probability of his sister rejecting the invitation to theater

-- The probability of his sister accepting the invitation to cinema

The probability of his sister rejecting the invitation to cinema

4) Find the probability of the events from Step2. P(R), P(A).

-- P(reject theater or cinema) =P(reject theater) + P(reject cinema)= P(R and T) +P(R and C):

-- P(accept theater or cinema) =P(accept theater) + P(accept cinema)= P(A and T) +P(A and C):

Verifying: Event A as complement of Event R satisfies P(A)+P(R)=1

E.g., For Independent events (Second trial is independent of first trial)

A coin is flipped and a dice is rolled after the coin.Find the probability if you want to flip a Head
and roll a 6. (Note: Flipping a coin and Rolling a dice are two independent events.)

1) Two procedures:
-- Step1: Flipping coin:
 Two events:
Event H=“Head”, and Event H’=“Tail”

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  P(H)= P(H’)=0.5

-- Step2: Rolling a dice:

 Two events:
Event S= “a 6 rolled” , Event S’ = “not a 6 rolled ”

 Independence renders that:

P(S|H)=P(S)=1/6 ; P(S|T)=P(S)=1/6 (complement to P(S|H))

P(S’|H)=P(S’)=5/6 ; P(S’|T)=P(S’|T)=5/6 (complement to P(S’|H))

2) Graphing:

3) Find the probability of the combined outcome.

-- The probability of getting a Head and a 6

The probability of getting a Head and a number not 6

-- The probability of getting a Tail and a 6

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 The probability of getting a Tail and a number not 6

4) No need to find the probability of the events from Step2: P(S), P(S’).

Example:

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A contestant on a game show has three attempts to hit a target in a shooting game. They have a
maximum of three attempts to hit the target in order to win the star prize – a speedboat. If they do
not hit the target within three attempts, they do not win anything. The probability of them hitting
the target first time is 0.2. With each successive attempt the probability of them failing to hit the
target is halved.

Find the probability that a contestant wins the star prize of a speedboat.

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