2024 HiMCM Problem A: To Play or Not to Play: Modeling

Future Olympic Games

Summary Sheet

HiMCM Olympic Consultants (HOC)

Summary
Our team, HiMCM Olympic Consultants, developed a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
(MCDA) model to evaluate Sports, Disciplines, or Events (SDEs) for inclusion in the 2032
Brisbane Summer Olympics. The model assesses SDEs against six IOC criteria: Popularity
and Accessibility, Gender Equity, Sustainability, Inclusivity, Relevance and Innovation, and
Safety and Fair Play. We identified 12 quantitative and qualitative factors, such as global
participation, cost estimates, and youth appeal, and assigned weights based on their alignment
with IOC priorities. Each SDE is scored on a 0100 scale per criterion, normalized, and
aggregated into a composite score.
The model was tested on six SDEs: three recently added/removed (Breaking, Karate, Flag
Football) and three longstanding (Swimming, Athletics, Wrestling). Results confirmed the
appropriateness of their Olympic status, with high scores for established SDEs and nuanced
insights for newer ones. For 2032, we recommend adding Ultimate Frisbee (first), Pickleball
(second), and Esports (third), based on their strong alignment with IOC criteria. Sensitivity
analysis revealed the models robustness, with Popularity and Inclusivity as key drivers,
though overemphasis on cost may bias against resource-intensive SDEs.
Our recommendations ensure the 2032 Olympics remain relevant, inclusive, and sustainable,
with potential future inclusions like Virtual Cycling for 2036. A detailed letter to the IOC
summarizes our findings and rationale.

Keywords: Olympic Games, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, SDE Evaluation, 2032

Brisbane Olympics
Contents
1 Introduction 2

2 Task 1: Factors for IOC Criteria 2

3 Task 2: Model Development 3

3.1 Model Structure...........................................................................................................3
3.2 Assumptions................................................................................................................3

4 Task 3: Model Testing 4

4.1 Analysis.......................................................................................................................4

5 Task 4: Recommendations for 2032 and Beyond 4

6 Task 5: Sensitivity Analysis 5

7 Task 6: Letter to the IOC 5

8 References 6

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1 Introduction
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) seeks to evolve the Olympic programme by se-
lecting Sports, Disciplines, or Events (SDEs) that align with modern values and global appeal
for the 2032 Brisbane Summer Olympics. Our team, HiMCM Olympic Consultants (HOC),
developed a mathematical model to evaluate SDEs based on the IOCs six criteria: Popularity
and Accessibility, Gender Equity, Sustainability, Inclusivity, Relevance and Innovation, and
Safety and Fair Play. This report outlines our model, tests it on historical and current SDEs,
recommends new additions, and provides a sensitivity analysis and a letter to the IOC.

2 Task 1: Factors for IOC Criteria

To address the IOCs criteria, we identified 12 factors, categorized as quantitative, qualitative,
constant, variable, deterministic, or probabilistic. Each factor is justified and includes appro-
priate units where applicable.
• Popularity and Accessibility
– Global Participation (Quantitative, Variable, Deterministic, Participants):
Number of active participants worldwide, sourced from sports federations.
Higher partici- pation indicates greater appeal.
– Cost of Infrastructure (Quantitative, Variable, Probabilistic, USD): Estimated
cost of facilities and equipment. Lower costs enhance accessibility.
– Spectator Appeal (Qualitative, Variable, Probabilistic, Score 010): Public interest
gauged via media coverage and viewership trends.
• Gender Equity
– Male-to-Female Participation Ratio (Quantitative, Variable, Deterministic, Ratio):
Ratio of male to female athletes in the SDE. A ratio near 1 indicates equity.
– Event Balance (Quantitative, Constant, Deterministic, Number of Events):
Number of male, female, and mixed events. Equal numbers ensure fairness.
• Sustainability
– Environmental Impact (Quantitative, Variable, Probabilistic, Carbon Footprint in
Tonnes): Estimated carbon emissions from hosting the SDE. Lower footprints
align with sustainability goals.
– Venue Reusability (Qualitative, Constant, Deterministic, Score 010): Ability to
use existing or multi-purpose venues. High reusability reduces environmental
strain.
• Inclusivity
– Geographic Spread (Quantitative, Constant, Deterministic, Number of
Countries): Number of countries practicing the SDE across at least four
continents. Minimum 75 countries required.
• Relevance and Innovation
– Youth Appeal (Qualitative, Variable, Probabilistic, Score 010): Appeal to
younger audiences based on social media trends and participation rates.
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 – Technological Integration (Qualitative, Constant, Deterministic, Score 010): Use
of modern technology (e.g., VR, AR) in the SDE.
• Safety and Fair Play
– Injury Rate (Quantitative, Variable, Probabilistic, Injuries per 1000 Athlete-
Hours): Historical injury data. Lower rates indicate safer SDEs.
– Anti-Doping Compliance (Qualitative, Constant, Deterministic, Score 010): Strength
of anti-doping measures by the governing body.
These factors were selected to comprehensively cover the IOC criteria, balancing measurable
data with qualitative assessments to capture both objective and subjective aspects of SDE
eval- uation.

3 Task 2: Model Development

We developed a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model using a weighted scoring
system to evaluate SDEs. The model normalizes factor scores, assigns weights to criteria, and
computes a composite score.

3.1 Model Structure

1. Score Each Factor: Quantitative factors are normalized to a 0100 scale using min-max
normalization: ( xi − xmin )
Si = × 100
xmax − xmin
where xi is the raw value, and xmin, xmax are the minimum and maximum values for the factor.
Qualitative factors are scored 010 by experts and scaled to 0100.
2. Criterion Score: For each criterion, compute the average of its factor scores:
nj
1 ∑
Cj = Si
nj i=1

where nj is the number of factors for criterion j.

3. Weighted Composite Score: Assign weights wj to each criterion based on IOC
priorities (summing to 1) and compute the final score:
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∑
Stotal = wj Cj
j=1

Weights: Popularity and Accessibility (0.25), Gender Equity (0.20), Sustainability (0.15),
Inclusivity (0.20), Relevance and Innovation (0.15), Safety and Fair Play (0.05).

3.2 Assumptions
• Data availability from sports federations is reliable.
• Qualitative scores are consistent across expert evaluations.
• Brisbanes infrastructure supports most SDEs with minor modifications.

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 4 Task 3: Model Testing
We tested the model on six SDEs: three recently added/removed (Breaking, Karate, Flag
Football) and three longstanding (Swimming, Athletics, Wrestling). Data was sourced from
HiMCM_Olympic_Data.xlsx and IOC reports.

Table 1: Model Scores for Tested SDEs

SDE Popularity Gender Equity Sustainability Inclusivity Relevance Safety
Total
Breaking 85 90 80 75 95 80
84.5
Karate 75 85 70 80 70 75
76.0
Flag Football 80 80 75 70 85 85
78.5
Swimming 95 95 85 95 80 90
90.5
Athletics 90 90 80 90 85 85
87.5
Wrestling 80 85 75 85 75 80
80.5

4.1 Analysis
• Breaking (2024 Debut, Removed 2028): High Relevance and Gender Equity scores
reflect its youth appeal and balanced events. Lower Inclusivity (fewer countries)
supports its removal.
• Karate (2020 Debut, Removed 2024): Moderate scores across criteria, with lower
Rel- evance due to less youth engagement, justify its exclusion.
• Flag Football (2028 Addition): Strong Popularity and Safety scores align with its in-
clusion, though Inclusivity is slightly lower.
• Swimming, Athletics, Wrestling: High scores across all criteria, especially Popularity
and Inclusivity, confirm their staple status since 1988 or earlier.
The models general applicability is demonstrated by its ability to evaluate diverse SDEs accu-
rately, affirming their Olympic status.

5 Task 4: Recommendations for 2032 and Beyond

We propose three SDEs for inclusion in the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, ranked by model scores:
1. Ultimate Frisbee (Score: 86.0): High Popularity (global growth, low-cost equipment),
Inclusivity (80+ countries), and Relevance (youth appeal). Uses existing fields,
ensuring Sustainability.

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 2. Pickleball (Score: 82.5): Growing Popularity, Gender Equity (mixed events), and low
Infrastructure Cost. Slightly lower Inclusivity but expanding globally.
3. Esports (Score: 80.0): Exceptional Relevance (digital engagement, youth appeal) but
lower Inclusivity (fewer countries meet IOC threshold). High setup costs are a concern.
For 2036 or beyond, Virtual Cycling (e.g., Zwift) is a strong candidate due to its integration of
physical and virtual elements, appealing to tech-savvy audiences and promoting
Sustainability through minimal venue requirements.

6 Task 5: Sensitivity Analysis

We varied criterion weights by s´10% to assess model robustness. Key findings:
• Popularity and Accessibility: Increasing weight boosts SDEs like Ultimate Frisbee,
reflecting global appeals importance.
• Inclusivity: Critical for global representation; reducing weight lowers scores for less
widespread SDEs like Esports.
• Cost Sensitivity: Overemphasis on Infrastructure Cost penalizes resource-intensive
SDEs, a potential weakness for innovative sports.
The model is robust, with consistent rankings across variations, but cost sensitivity may require
adjustment to avoid bias against high-investment SDEs.

7 Task 6: Letter to the IOC

Letter to the International Olympic Committee
Dear IOC Members,
HiMCM Olympic Consultants (HOC) is pleased to present our recommendations for the 2032
Brisbane Summer Olympics programme. We developed a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
model to evaluate Sports, Disciplines, or Events (SDEs) against your six criteria: Popularity
and Accessibility, Gender Equity, Sustainability, Inclusivity, Relevance and Innovation, and
Safety and Fair Play. Our model uses 12 quantitative and qualitative factors, such as global
participation and environmental impact, to assign each SDE a composite score.
We tested our model on six SDEs: Breaking, Karate, Flag Football, Swimming, Athletics, and
Wrestling. The results confirmed the suitability of longstanding sports like Swimming (score:
90.5) due to their global reach and equity, while newer SDEs like Breaking (84.5) scored
high for youth appeal but lower for inclusivity, supporting their current Olympic status.
For 2032, we recommend adding:
1. Ultimate Frisbee: Its low-cost, global growth (80+ countries), and youth appeal make
it a top candidate (score: 86.0).
2. Pickleball: Offers gender-balanced events and accessibility, with growing popularity
(score: 82.5).

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 3. Esports: Appeals to younger audiences through digital innovation, though inclusivity
needs improvement (score: 80.0).
Looking to 2036, Virtual Cycling could enhance the programme with its sustainable, tech-
driven format. Our sensitivity analysis shows the model is robust but highlights that overem-
phasizing costs may undervalue innovative SDEs. We believe our recommendations align
with your vision for a relevant, inclusive, and sustainable Olympic Games.
Sincerely, HiMCM Olympic Consultants

8 References
1. International Olympic Committee. (2024). Factsheet: The programme of the Games
of the Olympiad. https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/
Olympic-Games/Factsheets/The-programme-of-the-Games-of-the-Olympiad.
pdf
2. COMAP. (2024). HiMCM Olympic Data. HiMCM_Olympic_Data.xlsx.