A Survey of Probability Concepts
Chapter 5
McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008
GOALS
z Define probability.
z Describe the classical,, empirical,
p , and subjective
j
approaches to probability.
z Explain the terms experiment, event, outcome,
permutations and combinations.
permutations, combinations
z Define the terms conditional probability and joint
probability.
z Calculate probabilities using the rules of addition
and rules of multiplication.
z Apply a tree diagram to organize and compute
probabilities.
z Calculate a probability using Bayes’ theorem.
2
Definitions
A probability is a measure of the likelihood
th t an eventt iin th
that the ffuture
t will
ill h
happen. It
can only assume a value between 0 and 1.
z A value near zero means the event is not
likely to happen. A value near one means it is
likely.
z There are three ways of assigning probability:
– classical,
– empirical and
empirical,
– subjective.
3
P b bilit Examples
Probability E l
4
D fi iti
Definitions continued
z An experiment is the observation of
some activity or the act of taking
some measurement.
measurement
z An outcome is the particular result
of an experiment.
z An event is the collection of one or
more outcomes of an experiment.
5
Experiments, Events and Outcomes
6
A i i Probabilities
Assigning P b biliti
Three approaches to assigning
probabilities
– Classical
– Empirical
– Subjective
S bj ti
7
Cl
Classical
i l Probability
P b bilit
Consider an experiment of rolling a six-sided die. What is the
probability of the event “an
an even number of spots appear face
up”?
The possible outcomes are:
There are three “favorable” outcomes (a two, a four, and a six) in
q y likely
the collection of six equally yppossible outcomes.
8
Mutually Exclusive Events
z Events are mutually exclusive if the
occurrence off any one eventt means
that none of the others can occur at
the same time.
z Events are independent if the
occurrence of one event does not
affect
ff t the
th occurrence off another.
th
9
Collectively Exhaustive Events
z Events are collectively exhaustive
if at least one of the events must
occur when an experiment is
conducted.
10
E i i l Probability
Empirical P b bilit
The empirical approach to probability is based on what
is called the law of large numbers
numbers. The key to
establishing probabilities empirically is that more
observations will provide a more accurate estimate of
the probability.
11
L
Law off Large
L Numbers
N b
Suppose we toss a fair coin. The result of each toss is either a
head or a tail. If we toss the coin a great number of times, the
probability
b bilit off the
th outcome
t off heads
h d will
ill approach
h .5.
5 The
Th
following table reports the results of an experiment of flipping a
fair coin 1, 10, 50, 100, 500, 1,000 and 10,000 times and then
computing the relative frequency of heads
12
Empirical Probability - Example
On February 1, 2003, the Space Shuttle Columbia
exploded. This was the second disaster in 113 space
missions for NASA. On the basis of this information,
what is the probability that a future mission is
successfully completed?
Number of successful flights
Probability of a successful flight =
Total number of flights
111
= = 0.98
113
13
Subjective Probability - Example
z If there is little or no past experience or information on which to
base a probability, it may be arrived at subjectively.
z Illustrations of subjective probability are:
1. Estimating the likelihood the New England Patriots will play in the
Super Bowl next year.
2. Estimating the likelihood you will be married before the age of 30.
3. Estimating the likelihood the U.S. budget deficit will be reduced by
half in the next 10 years.
14
S
Summary off T
Types off Probability
P b bilit
15
R l for
Rules f Computing
C ti Probabilities
P b biliti
Rules of Addition
z Special
p Rule of Addition - If two events
A and B are mutually exclusive, the
probability of one or the other event’s
g equals
occurring q the sum of their
probabilities.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
z The General Rule of Addition - If A and
B are two events that are not mutually
exclusive then P(A or B) is given by the
exclusive,
following formula:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
16
Additi Rule
Addition R l - Example
E l
What is the probability that a card chosen at
random from a standard deck of cards will be
either a king or a heart?
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
= 4/52 + 13/52 - 1/52
= 16/52, or .3077
17
The Complement Rule
The complement rule is used to
determine the probability off an
event occurring by subtracting
the probability of the event not
occurring from 1.
P(A) + P((~A) = 1
or P(A) = 1 - P(~A).
18
J i t Probability
Joint P b bilit – Venn
V Diagram
Di
JOINT PROBABILITY A probability that
measures the likelihood two or more events
will happen concurrently.
19
Special Rule of Multiplication
z The special rule of multiplication
requires that two events A and B are
independent.
p
z Two events A and B are independent if the
occurrence of one has no effect on the
probability of the occurrence of the other.
z This rule is written: P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
20
M lti li ti Rule-Example
Multiplication R l E l
A survey by the American Automobile association
(AAA) revealed 60 percent of its members made
airline
i li reservations
ti llastt year. T
Two members
b are
selected at random. What is the probability both
made airline reservations last year?
Solution:
The p
probability
y the first member made an airline reservation last yyear is
.60, written as P(R1) = .60
The probability that the second member selected made a reservation is
also .60, so P(R2) = .60.
Since the n
number
mber of AAA members is very
er large
large, you
o ma
may ass
assume
me that
R1 and R2 are independent.
P(R1 and R2) = P(R1)P(R2) = (.60)(.60)
( 60)( 60) = .36
36
21
Conditional Probability
A conditional probability is the
probability of a particular event
occurring given that another event
occurring,
has occurred.
The probability of the event A given
that the event B has occurred is
written P(A|B).
22
General Multiplication Rule
The general rule of multiplication is used to find the joint
probability that two events will occur.
Use the general rule of multiplication to find the joint
probability of two events when the events are not
independent.
It states that for two events, A and B, the joint probability that
both events will happen is found by multiplying the
probability th t eventt A will
b bilit that ill h
happen b
by th
the conditional
diti l
probability of event B occurring given that A has occurred.
23
General Multiplication Rule - Example
A golfer has 12 golf shirts in his closet. Suppose
9 of these shirts are white and the others
blue. He gets dressed in the dark, so he just
grabs a shirt and puts it on
on. He plays golf two
days in a row and does not do laundry.
What is the likelihood both shirts selected are
white?
24
General Multiplication Rule - Example
z The event that the first shirt selected is white is W1.
The probability is P(W1) = 9/12
z The event that the second shirt selected is also white is
identified as W2. The conditional p probability
y that the
second shirt selected is white, given that the first shirt
selected is also white, is P(W2 | W1) = 8/11.
z To determine the probability of 2 white shirts being
selected we use formula: P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A)
z P(W1 and W2) = P(W1)P(W2 |W1) = (9/12)(8/11) = 0.55
25
C ti
Contingency T
Tables
bl
A CONTINGENCY TABLE is a table used to classify sample
observations according to two or more identifiable
characteristics
E.g. A survey of 150 adults classified each as to gender and the
number of movies attended last month
month. Each respondent is
classified according to two criteria—the number of movies
attended and gender.
26
C ti
Contingency T
Tables
bl - Example
E l
A sample of executives were surveyed about their loyalty to their company.
One of the questions was, “If you were given an offer by another
company
p y equalq to or slightly
g y better than yyour p
present p
position,, would
you remain with the company or take the other position?” The
responses of the 200 executives in the survey were cross-classified
with their length of service with the company.
What is the p
probability
y of randomly
y selecting
g an executive who is loyal
y to
the company (would remain) and who has more than 10 years of
service?
27
C ti
Contingency T
Tables
bl - Example
E l
Event A1 happens if a randomly selected executive will remain with
the company despite an equal or slightly better offer from
another company
company. Since there are 120 executives out of the
200 in the survey who would remain with the company
P(A1) = 120/200, or .60.
Event B4 happens if a randomly selected executive has more than
10 years of service with the company. Thus, P(B4| A1) is the
conditional probability that an executive with more than 10
years of service would remain with the company. Of the 120
executives
ti who
h would ld remaini 75 have
h more th
than 10 years off
service, so P(B4| A1) = 75/120.
28
Tree Diagrams
A tree diagram is useful for portraying
conditional
diti l and
d jjoint
i t probabilities.
b biliti It iis
particularly useful for analyzing business
decisions involving several stages.
A tree diagram is a graph that is helpful in
organizing calculations that involve several
stages Each segment in the tree is one stage of
stages.
the problem. The branches of a tree diagram are
weighted by probabilities
probabilities.
29
30
Bayes’ Theorem
z Bayes’ Theorem is a method for
revising
i i a probability
b bilit given
i additional
dditi l
information.
z It is computed using the following
formula:
31
Bayes Theorem - Example
32
B
Bayes Th l (cont.)
Theorem – Example
E ( t)
33
B
Bayes Th l (cont.)
Theorem – Example
E ( t)
34
B
Bayes Th l (cont.)
Theorem – Example
E ( t)
35
36
B
Bayes Th l (cont.)
Theorem – Example
E ( t)
37
Counting Rules – Multiplication
The multiplication formula indicates
th t if there
that th are m ways off doing
d i
one thing and n ways of doing
another thing, there are m x n ways
of doing both.
Example: Dr. Delong has 10 shirts and 8
ties How many shirt and tie outfits does
ties.
he have?
(10)(8) = 80
38
Counting Rules – Multiplication:
Example
An automobile dealer
wants to advertise that
f $29,999
for $29 999 you can buyb
a convertible, a two-door
sedan, or a four-door
model
d l with
ith your choice
h i
of either wire wheel
covers or solid wheel
covers. How many
different arrangements of
models and wheel
covers can the dealer
offer?
39
Counting Rules – Multiplication:
Example
40
Counting Rules - Permutation
A permutation is any arrangement of r
objects l t d ffrom n possible
bj t selected ibl
objects. The order of arrangement is
important in permutations.
41
Counting - Combination
A combination is the number of
ways to choose r objects from a
group of n objects without regard to
order.
42
Combination - Example
There are 12 players on the Carolina Forest
High
g School basketball team. Coach
Thompson must pick five players among the
twelve on the team to comprise
p the starting
g
lineup. How many different groups are
p
possible?
12!
12 C5 = = 792
5!(12 − 5)!
43
P
Permutation
t ti - Example
E l
Suppose that in addition to selecting the group,
he must also rank each of the players in that
starting lineup according to their ability.
12!
12 P 5 = = 95 ,040
(12 − 5 )!
44
End of Chapter 5
45
