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Research Report: Creating Resilient, Climate-Adaptive Economies in

Response to El Niño and Global Drought Crisis
Forum: United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC)

Issue: Creating Resilient, Climate-Adaptive Economies in Response

to El Niño and Global Drought Crisis

Student Officer: Tapfuma Dandara

Position: Co-Chair

Introduction

Background on Climate Change and El Niño

The rising frequency and intensity of El Niño events, along with extended
droughts from climate change, have greatly affected global food security, water
availability, and economic stability. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) states that human-driven global warming has worsened extreme
weather, making droughts more intense and unpredictable.

El Niño is a climate event marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in

the Pacific Ocean. It disrupts weather patterns worldwide, resulting in heavy
rainfall in some areas and prolonged droughts in others. The World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) notes that the 2023-24 El Niño event was
among the strongest on record, worsening water shortages in Africa, Latin
America, and Southeast Asia.

Scope of the Problem

- 2.3 billion people currently live in water-stressed regions (UN Water, 2023).
- Droughts have caused $124 billion in agricultural losses globally over the past
decade (FAO, 2024).
- By 2050, climate change could displace 216 million people, mainly due to
drought-related resource shortages (World Bank, 2021).

Key Terms and Definitions

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

- El Niño: Warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures leading to extreme
weather.
- La Niña: Cooling phase, often resulting in opposite effects, such as excessive
rainfall.
- Neutral Phase: Normal ocean temperatures and stable weather patterns.

Climate Adaptation vs. Mitigation

- Adaptation: Changing systems to lessen climate impacts, like using
drought-resistant crops.
- Mitigation: Lowering greenhouse gas emissions to slow climate change, such
as by using renewable energy.

Drought Resilience Metrics

- Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI): Assesses long-term drought conditions.
- Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI): Monitors rainfall deficits over time.

Green Infrastructure
Nature-based solutions include:
- Reforestation: Improves water retention in soil.
- Wetland Restoration: Boosts natural flood and drought buffers.
- Sand Dams: Help store rainwater in dry areas, like in Kenya.

Challenges Posed by El Niño and Droughts

Agricultural Collapse
-​ Case Study: The 2015-16 drought in Ethiopia caused 90% crop failure,
leaving 10 million people food insecure (WFP, 2016).
 -​ Global Impact: Droughts account for a 10-15% reduction in global cereal
production each year (FAO, 2023).

Water Scarcity
-​ Cape Town’s "Day Zero" (2018): The city nearly ran out of water, forcing
strict rationing.
-​ Future Projections: 33 countries will experience extreme water stress by
2040 (WRI, 2023).

Economic Fluctuations
-​ Supply Chain Disruptions: The 2023 El Niño led to a 30% increase in
coffee prices due to droughts in Brazil and Vietnam.
-​ Migration Crisis: The World Bank forecasts 216 million climate migrants by
2050.

Health and Humanitarian Crises

-​ Malnutrition: Droughts in Somalia (2022) left 7 million people without
enough food.
-​ Disease Outbreaks: The drought in Yemen contributed to a cholera
epidemic that affected 1 million people.

Major Parties Involved

Developed Nations
-​ Accountability: The U.S. and EU are responsible for 50% of historical
emissions, yet only provide 20% of adaptation funding (Oxfam, 2023).
-​ Initiatives: The EU’s Global Gateway program promises €300 billion for
climate-resilient infrastructure.
Vulnerable Nations
-​ Case Study: Bangladesh’s Delta Plan 2100 is a $38 billion project to fight
salinity intrusion and droughts.

United Nations Agencies

 -​ WFP: Distributed $1.2 billion in aid during the 2022 drought in the Horn of
Africa.
-​ FAO: Advocates for climate-smart agriculture in areas prone to drought.

Financial Institutions
-​ World Bank’s PROGREEN Initiative: Provides $1.5 billion for land
restoration in the Sahel.
-​ IMF’s Resilience Fund: Offers debt relief to nations vulnerable to climate
issues.

Past Actions and Their Effectiveness

International Agreements
-​ Paris Agreement (2015): Commits countries to limit warming but lacks
enforcement for adaptation funding.
-​ Sendai Framework (2015): Focuses on reducing disaster risk but has
uneven implementation across nations.

Humanitarian Aid
-​ UNCERF: Funded 120 drought-response projects in 2023, assisting 15
million people.
-​ NGO Efforts: Oxfam and Red Cross provide emergency water and food
supplies.

Technological Solutions
-​ Drought-Resistant Crops: CGIAR’s "Scuba Rice" increased yields by 20%
in flood-prone areas.
-​ Solar-Powered Irrigation: Used in Kenya and India to lessen dependence
on rainfall.

Timeline of Key Events

 YEAR EVENT IMPACT

1982-83 Severe El Niño $8 billion in global

damages (NOAA)

2015-16 El Niño-induced 60 million affected in

famine Africa

2023 U.N declares “Global 1.4 billion face water

Drought Emergency” stress

2024 Return of El Niño Worsens droughts in

Latin America and
Southeast Asia

Proposed Solutions

Climate-Smart Agriculture
-​ Drought-Resistant Seeds: Use CGIAR’s heat-tolerant wheat in vulnerable
areas.
-​ Precision Irrigation: Israel’s drip systems cut water use by 60%.

Water Management Infrastructure

-​ Rainwater Harvesting: India’s Jal Shakti Mission aims to replenish
groundwater.
-​ Desalination: Saudi Arabia’s Ras Al-Khair plant produces 1 million m³/day.

Economic Diversification
-​ Shift to Renewable Energy! The U.S. solar industry employs 250,000
people, which is double the number of coal jobs.
-​ Microfinance for Resilience: Support small businesses in areas prone to
drought.
International Cooperation
-​ Climate Finance Transparency: A UN-backed platform to track the $100
billion/year climate finance pledge.
-​ Early Warning Systems: Satellite-based drought monitoring for regions at
risk.

Case Studies

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program

- Helped 8 million people with cash-for-work to build terraces and
wells.

California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act

- Reduced water extraction by 25% in five years.

Stakeholder Analysis

Private Sector
- Coca-Cola’s "Water Neutrality" initiative replenished 100% of its
water usage.

Local Communities
- Kenya’s Maasai women installed solar-powered wells, cutting water
collection time by 70%.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Call to Action
- ECOSOC should set up a "Drought Resilience Task Force" to
enforce adaptation targets.
- Developed nations must meet the $100 billion/year climate finance
promise.
Long-Term Vision
- Align policies with SDG 6 (Clean Water) and SDG 13 (Climate
Action).

Bibliography
United Nations and Affiliated Agencies
-​ UN Water – [https://www.unwater.org](https://www.unwater.org)
-​ World Food Programme (WFP)** –
[https://www.wfp.org](https://www.wfp.org)
-​ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)** –
[https://www.fao.org](https://www.fao.org)
-​ United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)** –
[https://www.unep.org](https://www.unep.org)
-​ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)** –
[https://www.ipcc.ch](https://www.ipcc.ch)
-​ World Meteorological Organization (WMO)** –
[https://public.wmo.int](https://public.wmo.int)

Climate and Drought Data

-​ NASA Climate – [https://climate.nasa.gov](https://climate.nasa.gov)
-​ NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)** –
[https://www.noaa.gov](https://www.noaa.gov)
-​ World Resources Institute (WRI) – Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas –
[https://www.wri.org/aqueduct](https://www.wri.org/aqueduct)
-​ Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) Data** –
[https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov)

Economic and Humanitarian Reports

-​ World Bank Climate Reports –
[https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange](https://www.worldbank
.org/en/topic/climatechange)
-​ IMF Resilience and Sustainability Trus –
[https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change](https://www.imf.org/en/Topi
cs/climate-change)
-​ Oxfam International – [https://www.oxfam.org](https://www.oxfam.org)
Case Studies and Regional Data
-​ CGIAR (Climate-Smart Agriculture Research) –
[https://www.cgiar.org](https://www.cgiar.org)
-​ Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme** –
[https://www.psnp.gov.et](https://www.psnp.gov.et)
-​ California’s Groundwater Management** –
[https://water.ca.gov](https://water.ca.gov)
-​ Kenya’s Sand Dams (Practical Action) –
[https://practicalaction.org](https://practicalaction.org)

Private Sector Initiatives

-​ Coca-Cola Water Replenishment Projects –
[https://www.coca-colacompany.com/sustainability/water](https://www.coca
-colacompany.com/sustainability/water)
-​ EU Global Gateway Initiative –
[https://ec.europa.eu/international-partnerships/global-gateway_en](https://
ec.europa.eu/international-partnerships/global-gateway_en)

Additional Useful Databases

-​ ReliefWeb (Disaster and Drought Updates)–
[https://reliefweb.int](https://reliefweb.int)

-​ Our World in Data (Climate & Water Statistics) –

[https://ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org)