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PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY
- It is to be used to describe the
likelihood of an event to
happen.
- It deals with events
that occur by chance.
- It is also the measure of
certainty of a certain outcome.
PROBABILITY
Certainty of Probability
Certain Events: Things that will surely
happen have a probability of 1.
Impossible Events: Things that cannot
happen have a probability of 0.
Definition of Terms
Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called the sample
space and is represented by the symbol S.
Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the
sample space, or simply a sample point.
Sample Space
The sample space S, of possible outcomes when a
coin is flipped,
Consider the experiment of tossing a die. If we are
interested in the number that shows on the top face,
the sample space is
Sample Space
An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a
second time if a head occurs.
Definition of Terms
Event
An event is a subset of a sample space.
An event is just a specific result or group of results from the sample space.
The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all elements of S
that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by the symbol A’.
Event
In tossing a die, let A be the event to know what
numbers on a die are divisible by 3.
Then A’ is the event that the numbers on a die is not
divisible by 3.
TRY ME
Exercise
Two jurors are selected from 4 alternates to serve at a
murder trial. Using the notation A1A3, for example, to
denote the simple event that alternates 1 and 3 are
selected, list the 6 elements of the sample space S.
TRY ME
Exercise
In tossing two dice, list the elements corresponding to
the event A that the sum is greater than 8
PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY
P(A) = the probability of event A
P(S) = the probability of sample space
Property : Positiveness
— probability values are between 0 and 1
— a probability of:
• 0 = impossible
• 1 = certain
• between 0 and 1 = it might happen
Property : Sure Event
— probability of sample space S is always 1
— the sample space S includes everything that can
possibly happen
Property : Empty Set
— probability of an impossible
event is 0
— no outcome at all
TRY ME
Exercise
Draw a random card from a deck of cards.
What is the probability that the card drawn
is a face card?
ADDITIVE LAWS OF PROBABILITY
1 Addition Rule (for Union of Events)
2 Mutually Exclusive Events
ADDITIVE LAWS OF PROBABILITY
3 Complement Rule
4 Sequence of Mutually Exclusive Events
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
— The probability of an event A occurring
when it is known that some event E has
occurred
— denoted by P(A|E)
Multiplication Theorem for Conditional
Probability
If two events can both happen (say, A and B), then the probability that both
happen together is:
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
— Two events A and B are independent if
and only if P(A|B) = P(A) and P(B|A) = P(B).
— Probability of one event does not affect
the probability of another event
