Data Analytics Assignment
Name of Student: Gitesh Karpe
Programme Name: P.G. DIPLOMA IN DATA
ANALYTICS IN ECONOMICS
Academic Year: 2022-23
Subject: Econometrics (Semester II)
Guidance: Dr. Shailesh Bharati
Growth trends of Food Grain Production in India
Abstract:
The growth, trend, and structural stability of agricultural production – food grains, as well as
the area and yield of agricultural production reflect the contribution and stability of an
economy. The objective of this research is to evaluate the growth, trend, and the structural
stability of food grain production, area under cultivation in India. To accomplish the
objectives, secondary data was gathered from the Handbook of statistics on the Indian
economy (2021–22) by RBI.
Introduction:
Agriculture makes a significant contribution to the Indian economy, accounting for over 17%
of total GDP and employing more than 60% of the population. Agriculture is the primary
source of income for approximately for 58 percent of India's population. On a sector-by-
sector basis, agriculture and related sectors account for 20.19 percent of GDP. The
agricultural sector ensures food security and nutrition for India's vast population, as well as
supplies of massive amounts of raw materials for strengthening the country's industrial base
and creating surpluses for export. Therefore this report examines the relationship between the
area,fertiliser and production in the agricultural sector using the dataset.
Dataset Overview:
The dataset comprises three variables: Area, Fertiliser, and Production. Our objective is to analyze
how Area and Fertiliser impact foodgrain Production.
Fertilise Productio
year Area r n
2007-
08 101.2 115.3 105.4
2008-
09 100.9 127.2 106.5
2009-
10 100 135.3 100.6
2010-
11 104.4 146.3 114.3
2011-
12 104.1 142.3 119.5
2012-
13 102 130.8 119.4
2013-
14 105.6 118.5 123.3
2014-
15 105.4 127.5 115.9
2015-
16 103.9 130.7 115.7
2016-
17 109 124.4 131.1
2017-
18 107.4 127.9 136.8
2018-
19 105.6 132.1 134.4
2019-
20 107.9 127.8 139.8
2020-
21 105.4 137.15 142
Descriptive Analysis:
Area Fertiliser
130.232142
Mean 104.4857143 Mean 9
2.22870636
Standard Error 0.723001766 Standard Error 6
Median 104.9 Median 129.3
Mode 105.6 Mode #N/A
Standard 8.33905563
Standard Deviation 2.7052249 Deviation 6
Sample Variance 7.318241758 Sample Variance 69.5398489
- 0.22962988
Kurtosis 0.749603924 Kurtosis 1
- 0.17888059
Skewness 0.120619132 Skewness 1
Range 9 Range 31
Minimum 100 Minimum 115.3
Maximum 109 Maximum 146.3
Sum 1462.8 Sum 1823.25
Count 14 Count 14
Production
Mean 121.7642857
Standard Error 3.552071167
Median 119.45
Mode #N/A
Standard Deviation 13.29063332
Sample Variance 176.6409341
Kurtosis -1.134553172
Skewness 0.080378337
Range 41.4
Minimum 100.6
Maximum 142
Sum 1704.7
Count 14
Correlation Analysis:
1.Area and Production:
Productio
Area n
Area 1
Production 0.836221 1
The correlation coefficient between "Area" and "Production" is approximately 0.836221.
This positive correlation implies that changes in "Area" are associated with increase in
"Production."
2. Fertiliser and Production:
Productio
Fertiliser n
Fertiliser 1
Production 0.041751643 1
The correlation coefficient between "Fertiliser" and "Production" is approximately
0.041751643.
This positive correlation implies that changes in "Fertiliser" influence increase in
"Production”.
Regression Analysis:
We will employ linear regression analysis to understand how "Area" and "Fertiliser" affect
"Production."
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.841763717
R Square 0.708566156
Adjusted R Square 0.655578184
Standard Error 7.799935336
Observations 14
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 1627.103239 813.5516196 13.37220758 0.001134932
Residual 11 669.2289036 60.83899124
Total 13 2296.332143
Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
Intercept -330.7884555 92.36488524 -3.581322649 0.004308657
Area 4.139248358 0.801382422 5.165134955 0.000310843
Fertiliser 0.154035859 0.259971845 0.592509772 0.565490228
Visual Representation:
Chart Title
160
140
f(x) = 2.95230769230769 x + 99.621978021978
120 R² = 0.863515091972399
100
80
60
40
20
0
2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020-
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Area Fertiliser
Production Linear (Production)
Linear (Production)
The intercept of the regression model is: Intercept = 99.622
The slope of the regression model is: Slope = 2.9523x
The R-squared value of the regression model is approximately 0.708566156. This
indicates that around 70.8% of the variability in foodgrain production can be
explained by the area and fertiliser.
Interpretation:
The positive slope of the regression line suggests that increase in Area is associated
with increase in production.
The R-squared value indicates that the model captures a substantial portion of the
variability in production based on the cultivated area.
Conclusion:
To conclude, this data analysis reveals insights into the intricate interplay between "Area,"
"Fertiliser," and "Production." Both "Area" and "Fertiliser" exhibit positive correlations with
"Production." Our regression analysis provides predictive models that offer insights into the
potential impact of "Area" and "Fertiliser" on "Production." This indicates the sector's
growth and potential improvements in agricultural practices. However, it's essential to
consider other factors that might influence production variations. It is important to note that
this analysis is based on available data and general analytical methods. Although the Indian
economy is still in its early stages, agriculture remains the primary source of income for the
vast majority of the population. The agricultural sector ensures food security and nutrition for
India's massive population, as well as supplies a large quantity of raw materials to various
industries.
