1 s2.0 S2665972725002181 Main
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A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Land use/cover (LULC) mapping is vital for natural resource management and environmental monitoring in
Land surface temperature rapidly developing regions such as Ethiopia’s Northern Highlands. This study pioneers the integration of
Land use/cover classification Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar and Sentinel-2 Level 2A MultiSpectral Instrument data via Google Earth
Machine learning algorithms
Engine to achieve high-accuracy LULC classification in the Alawuha Watershed, evaluating Classification and
Soil moisture index
Spatiotemporal analysis
Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machines (SVM). It also examined spatio
temporal variations in land surface temperature (LST) and the soil moisture index (SMI) across LULC types using
Landsat 8. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) SVM outperformed RF and CART, achieving an average overall
accuracy (OA) of 89.6 % and an F1 score of 89.5 % across 2019 and 2024, compared to 88.2 % OA and 88.1 % F1
for RF, and 83.8 % OA and 83.3 % F1 for CART. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed urban expansion, increased
forest cover, and stable farmland, with farmland consistently dominant in the watershed. LST decreased
significantly from 2014 to 2025, with built-up areas showing the highest values at 41.4 ◦ C (2019) and 38.1 ◦ C
(2024) and forests the lowest at 30.4 ◦ C (2019) and 27.8 ◦ C (2024). SMI increased significantly (2014–2025),
with forests recording the highest values at 0.59 (2019) and 0.66 (2024), and built-up and bare lands the lowest.
These findings highlight LULC’s role in regulating microclimates and water balance, offering key insights for
sustainable land-use planning and environmental management.
1. Introduction amplifies these issues by raising LST and lowering soil moisture, which
are critical biophysical parameters that influence agricultural produc
Land use/cover (LULC) classification is a cornerstone for effective tivity, water availability, and climate resilience (Effati et al., 2021;
natural resource management and environmental monitoring (Z. Zhao Sridhar et al., 2019; Z. Zhao et al., 2024).
et al., 2024). Accurate LULC maps are vital for socioeconomic planning, LST is an essential parameter in surface radiation and water balance
resource optimization, and mitigating urbanization impacts such as (Janani et al., 2024). LST, the radiative skin temperature of the land, is a
biodiversity loss, increased land surface temperatures (LST), and altered key climate variable that indicates how hot or cold the Earth’s surface is
local microclimates (Mumtaz et al., 2020; Nega and Balew, 2022; (Ghaderpour et al., 2024; Z. L. Li et al., 2023), and is crucial for inves
Stehfest et al., 2019). In rapidly developing regions like the Northern tigating climate (Bayable and Alemu, 2022). It is sensitive to vegetation
Highlands of Ethiopia, where diverse topography and climatic vari density and varies significantly with land cover, altitude, and time of
ability coexist, robust LULC mapping becomes even more critical for day (Ghaderpour et al., 2023, 2024). LST is closely correlated with soil
sustainable development (Semaw et al., 2022). Urbanization transforms moisture and is used to monitor droughts, water resources, and hazards
thermal environments, leading to surface urban heat islands that exac such as landslides (Khamidov et al., 2023; Loche et al., 2022). Soil
erbate warming, disrupt hydrological processes, and reduce biodiversity moisture, a critical parameter in global hydrological cycles, has broad
(Jabbar et al., 2023). The transition to impervious surfaces further applications in hydrology, meteorology, climatology, and water
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: bayable.geta@gmail.com (G. Bayable).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2025.100797
Received 13 April 2025; Received in revised form 10 July 2025; Accepted 14 July 2025
Available online 15 July 2025
2665-9727/© 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
G. Bayable et al. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators 27 (2025) 100797
resource management (Anderson et al., 2007; Bastiaanssen et al., 2000; Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) were incorporated to
Dobriyal et al., 2012; Pauwels et al., 2002; Western et al., 2004; Yin enhance classification performance. Furthermore, the impacts of LULC
et al., 2023). change on land surface temperature (LST) and soil moisture index (SMI)
Both LST and SMI reflect underlying LULC patterns, influencing have not been assessed in the Alawuha Watershed, providing additional
surface energy and water balances (Janani et al., 2024; Jia et al., 2021; motivation for this study. Accordingly, the main objectives and contri
Tronquo et al., 2022). Vegetation moderates surface temperatures bution of this study were to:
through cooling processes like evapotranspiration, while its removal
elevates LST and diminishes soil moisture retention (Goward et al., • Compare the accuracy of three nonparametric machine learning al
2002; Weng et al., 2004). Croplands, supported by irrigation and canopy gorithms (CART, RF, SVM) for LULC classification using Sentinel-1
cover, typically maintain moderate to high soil moisture, whereas urban SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI data.
and bare lands, characterized by impervious surfaces and minimal • Analyze spatiotemporal trends in LST and SMI between 2014 and
vegetation, show higher LST and lower moisture levels (Peng et al., 2025, linking observed changes to vegetation dynamics and the ef
2012; Weng et al., 2004; Zhang et al., 2011). Recent studies reinforce fects of Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative.
these relationships such as Shokati et al. (2024) applied Random Forests • Evaluate how different LULC classes influence LST and SMI, identi
using Sentinel-2, Landsat-8/9, and UAV hyperspectral data, demon fying patterns such as urban heat islands and forest-driven moisture
strating higher moisture in vegetated areas compared to bare soils, while retention.
Aliabad and Ghaderpour (2025) used MODIS data to model soil heat • Provide policy-relevant recommendations for forest conservation,
flux, showing lower heat flux in vegetated residential zones than in sustainable land management, and climate-resilient urban planning.
non-vegetated covers. These dynamics are directly relevant to the Ala
wuha Watershed, where LULC-driven variations in LST and SMI serve as These findings provide valuable insights for sustainable land-use
critical indicators of ecosystem health, agricultural productivity, and planning, enhancing agricultural resilience, and guiding environ
water availability (Goward et al., 2002; A. Saha et al., 2018). Therefore, mental management strategies in the Ethiopian highlands. To present
investigating how LST and soil moisture vary across LULC classes is these results, this manuscript is structured as follows: Section 1 in
essential for understanding land–atmosphere interactions, guiding troduces the research background, motivation, and objectives. Section 2
climate adaptation, and promoting sustainable land-use practi details the study area, datasets (Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, SRTM), spectral
ces—especially in Ethiopia’s rain-fed agricultural context. indices, and methods for classification and trend analysis. Section 3
Advances in remote sensing and geospatial technologies provide presents the results, including classification accuracy, spatiotemporal
effective tools for monitoring LULC changes and their impact on LST and LULC changes, and trends in LST and SMI. Section 4 discusses the
soil moisture. Medium-resolution datasets, such as Sentinel-2 and findings in the context of existing literature, their implications, and
Landsat-8, are widely used for their cost-effectiveness and accessibility, study limitations. Section 5 concludes with key insights and policy
enabling detailed LULC mapping and derivation of soil moisture indices recommendations.
(Z. Zhao et al., 2024). Machine learning algorithms increasingly
outperform traditional parametric methods like the Maximum Likeli 2. Materials and methods
hood Classifier (MLC) in LULC classification, offering superior efficiency
and accuracy (Gibson et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2022; Pham et al., 2020; 2.1. Study area
Sheykhmousa et al., 2020; Sun et al., 2019). Among these, Classification
and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector The study was conducted in the Alawuha Watershed, located in the
Machines (SVM) excel in remote sensing image analysis due to their high North Wello Zone of the Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia. The
classification accuracy (Bayable et al., 2023; Loukika et al., 2021). Deep watershed covers an area of approximately 780 km2, with elevations
learning techniques like convolutional neural networks (CNNs), while ranging from 1293 m to 3808 m above mean sea level (a.m.s.l.) (Fig. 1).
promising, are computationally intensive and require extensive re The landscape is marked by deep gorges and significant erosion, with the
sources and training data (Sewak et al., 2018). eastern boundary forming part of the southwestern block of the Afar
Due to variations in the spectral and textural characteristics of depression (Semaw et al., 2022). The watershed experiences a bimodal
ground features, the performance of machine learning algorithms for rainfall pattern with two rainy seasons. The short rainy season, Belg,
LULC classification varies regionally. This necessitates comparative occurs from March to May, while the long rainy season, Kiremt, lasts
studies to identify the most accurate methods across different land from June to September, contributing most of the annual rainfall
scapes. While parametric approaches such as Maximum Likelihood (1000–1100 mm) (Loakes et al., 2018). Mean monthly temperatures
Classification (MLC) dominate LULC studies in Ethiopia (Semaw et al., range between 21 and 25 ◦ C (Semaw et al., 2022). The area’s diverse
2022), the application of nonparametric machine learning algorithms topography significantly influences agricultural practices. Highland re
using Sentinel-2 Level 2A MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) and Sentinel-1 gions (Dega, 3200–3700 m) rely on Belg rains for crop production, while
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data remains underexplored particu mid-altitude areas (Woyina Dega, 1500–3200 m) and lowland areas
larly in the Northern Highlands, where persistent cloud cover limits (Kolla, below 1500 m) depend primarily on rainfall from the Meher
optical remote sensing. Although several studies in Ethiopia have season (Mengistie and Kidane, 2016). Agriculture, comprising crop
employed MLC for LULC classification, limited research has evaluated farming and animal husbandry, serves as the primary livelihood for
the performance of nonparametric algorithms in the Northern High residents. This sector is predominantly small-scale, labor-intensive, and
lands, including the Alawuha Watershed. Previous studies in this region rain-fed, making it vulnerable to seasonal variability and climatic
(Semaw et al., 2022; Zeleke et al., 2022) primarily relied on Landsat-5 fluctuations.
and Landsat-8 imagery, which offer lower spatial resolution than
Sentinel-2 Level-2A data and are more prone to classification errors due 2.2. Data and processing
to MLC’s sensitivity to outliers. To address these limitations, this study
evaluates three widely used nonparametric classifiers, Classification and This study utilized multiple datasets to evaluate LULC classification
Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector and its relationship with LST and soil moisture. The datasets employed
Machine (SVM), by integrating Sentinel-2 MSI optical data, Sentinel-1 include Sentinel-2 level 2A MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) optical im
SAR data, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) elevation agery, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), Landsat 8 imagery,
data. Environmental indices such as the Normalized Difference Vege and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) elevation data (Table 1;
tation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Fig. 2). For LULC mapping, spectral bands from Sentinel-2 level 2A MSI
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Table 1
Summary of the datasets utilized in this study, including product name, spatial resolution, temporal resolution, and period used.
Product Name Spatial Resolution Temporal Resolution Period Used Accessed From Data set provider
Sentinel-2 Level 2A MSI 10–20 m 5 days 2019, 2024 GEE European Union/ESA/Copernicus
Sentinel-1 SAR 10 m 6–12 days 2019, 2024 GEE European Union/ESA/Copernicus
Landsat OLI/TIRS 30 m (OLI), resampled from 100m to 30m (TIRS) 16 days 2014–2025 GEE USGS
SRTM Digital Elevation 30 m Static (2000) 2000 GEE NASA/USGS
imagery, including blue, green, red, red edge 1, red edge 2, red edge 3, Sentinel-2 imagery, field surveys, high-resolution Google Earth images,
near-infrared, red edge 4, shortwave infrared 1, and shortwave infrared and existing literature. Initially, irregular polygons representing each
2, were used. To address challenges related to cloud cover, Sentinel-1 LULC class were manually delineated using a visual interpretation of
SAR data, which is unaffected by atmospheric conditions, was inte Sentinel-2 imagery. These polygons were exported in KML format and
grated with the Sentinel-2 level 2A imagery. The vertical-vertical (VV) validated using Google Earth Pro to ensure the reliability and accuracy
and vertical-horizontal (VH) polarization channels of Sentinel-1 SAR of the delineations. Then, a stratified random sampling approach was
provided additional structural information, thereby improving classifi employed within these validated polygons to generate representative
cation accuracy. Additionally, SRTM elevation data with a 30-m reso sample points for the six LULC classes. The number of training samples
lution, along with derived slope data, were incorporated to capture for each class was determined based on its proportional area, ensuring
terrain variability. Furthermore, Landsat 8 imagery was used to estimate sufficient representation. As a rule of thumb, at least 50 sample points
LST and the soil moisture index (SMI), enabling the examination of are recommended per class (Thomas et al., 2004). Using a trial-and-error
thermal dynamics and moisture variations across different LULC types. approach, we experimented with various sample sizes and ultimately
Data preprocessing was conducted on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) selected 1280 sample points: urban (180), water (150), forest (200),
platform to standardize datasets and ensure reliability. Cloud and cirrus farmland (crop) (400), shrubland (250), and bareland (100). Of these,
masking was applied to Sentinel-2 imagery using the QA60 band, and 70 % were allocated for training and 30 % for validation across the
median composites were generated for Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-1 data machine learning algorithms. This sampling approach ensured a
sets to reduce temporal noise and provide stable LULC representations. balanced representation across all LULC classes, minimized classifica
Derived indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index tion bias, and supported robust and accurate model performance
(NDVI), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and evaluation.
Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) (Table 2), were computed
to enhance feature discrimination and facilitate the differentiation of 2.4. Machine learning algorithms
vegetation, water bodies, built-up areas, and other LULC types.
Normalization techniques were also applied across all datasets to miti Three non-parametric common machine-learning algorithms, Clas
gate scale differences, ensuring compatibility and minimizing potential sification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest (RF), and Sup
biases in classification and analysis. port Vector Machines (SVM), were employed in this study, utilizing the
Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. These machine-learning algo
2.3. Sample point generation and classification method rithms were selected for their robustness in handling outliers, ability to
effectively classify complex LULC types, and suitability for high-
The LULC map was classified into six categories: forest, shrubland, dimensional datasets (Bayable et al., 2023; Loukika et al., 2021; Z.
built-up areas, barren land, farmland, and water bodies. Sample points Zhao et al., 2024).
were generated through a combination of visual interpretation of Classification and Regression Trees (CART): The CART technique is
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G. Bayable et al. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators 27 (2025) 100797
Fig. 2. Diagram illustrating the workflow for LULC classification, LST, and SMI analysis in the Alawuha Watershed.
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Table 3 3. Results
Equations for performance evaluation metrics (Loukika et al., 2021; Nasiri et al.,
2022). 3.1. Performance evaluation of machine learning algorithms
Metric Equation
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Table 5
Accuracy assessment of LULC, including area in km2 and percentage.
Classifiers Classes Area (km2) Percentage UA (%) PA (%) F1 Score (%) OA (%) Kc
2019 2024 2019 2024 2019 2024 2019 2024 2019 2024 2019 2024 2019 2024
CART Urban 27.41 31.81 3.52 4.08 84.06 90.74 93.55 98 88.55 94.23 80.256 87.26 0.75 0.84
Water 20.79 11.24 2.67 1.44 95.45 100.00 97.67 97.5 96.55 98.73
Forest 58.05 70.74 7.45 9.08 84.75 84.21 75.75 78.68 80.00 81.35
Farmland 389.94 377.22 50.06 48.43 80.83 85.60 83.62 92.24 82.20 88.8
Shrubland 243.32 277.11 31.24 35.58 66.67 84.06 65.75 80.55 66.20 82.27
Bareland 39.38 10.77 5.06 1.38 69.23 84.00 60.00 70 64.29 76.36
RF Urban 15.90 17.1 2.04 2.2 98.33 94 95.16 94 96.72 94 87.44 88.89 0.84 0.86
Water 14.44 13.25 1.85 1.7 100 100 97.67 95 98.82 97.44
Forest 41.08 71.39 5.27 9.17 77.77 88.14 84.84 85.25 81.15 86.67
Farmland 414.30 367.22 53.19 47.15 87.3 88.62 94.82 93.97 90.90 91.21
Shrubland 277.82 297.77 35.67 38.23 76.81 80.82 72.6 81.94 74.65 81.38
Bareland 15.34 12.17 1.97 1.56 100 88.46 70 76.67 82.35 82.14
RBF SVM Urban 16.44 19.89 2.11 2.55 96.875 100 100 94 98.41 96.91 88.97 90.24 0.86 0.88
Water 13.51 11.36 1.73 1.46 97.619 100 95.348 97.5 96.47 98.73
Forest 42.59 78.55 5.47 10.08 87.5 85.71 84.8484 88.52 86.15 87.1
Farmland 393.00 393.08 50.46 50.47 89.256 90.24 93.1 95.69 91.14 92.89
Shrubland 281.85 257.22 36.19 33.02 78.082 82.86 78.08 80.55 78.08 81.69
Bareland 31.51 18.8 4.05 2.41 88.46 88.89 76.666 80 82.14 84.21
Fig. 3. LULC maps for 2019 and 2024 generated using three machine learning classifiers: Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Radial Basis Function Support
Vector Machines (RBF SVM), and Random Forest (RF).
modified Mann–Kendall test (Fig. 5b). In contrast, SMI exhibited a sig LULC classes, the RBF SVM classification result was used, as it achieved
nificant increase over the same period (p < 0.05) (Fig. 5c). Similarly, the highest accuracy compared to RF and CART. The variations of LST
NDVI increased significantly (2014–2025), indicating enhanced vege within each LULC class are shown in Fig. 7a, with higher LST observed in
tation cover in the watershed (Fig. 5a). 2019 compared to 2024 across all classes. The maximum LSTs were
Spatial trends in LST and SMI, assessed using Sen’s Slope and the recorded in built-up areas, with values of 41.4 ◦ C in 2019 and 38.1 ◦ C in
modified Mann-Kendall trend test, are shown in Fig. 6. LST increased in 2024, whereas the minimum LSTs were observed in forest areas, with
the northwestern and central regions, particularly around urban and values of 30.4 ◦ C in 2019 and 27.8 ◦ C in 2024 (Fig. 7a). Conversely, SMI
farmland areas, but decreased significantly in western forested and increased from 2019 to 2024 across all classes within the watershed
southeastern irrigated farm areas (Fig. 6a; Fig. 6c; Fig. 3). In contrast, (Fig. 7b). The highest SMI values were found in forest areas, at 0.59 in
SMI trends exhibited the opposite pattern, with decreases in northern, 2019 and 0.66 in 2024, while built-up areas (0.30 in 2019 and 0.39 in
northwestern, western, and central urban and farmland areas and sig 2024) and bare land areas (0.32 in 2019 and 0.40 in 2024) exhibited the
nificant increases in western forested and southeastern irrigated areas. lowest SMI values (Fig. 7b).
Overall, the spatial pattern of SMI Sen’s Slope was inversely related to
that of LST (Fig. 6). 4. Discussion
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G. Bayable et al. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators 27 (2025) 100797
Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of (a) land surface temperature (LST) and (b) soil moisture index (SMI) derived from Landsat-8 imagery for the period 2014–2024. The
selected months were chosen based on relatively low cloud cover compared to other months of the year.
outperformed other classifiers in the Alawuha Watershed, achieving an Jodzani et al. (2019) reported SVM’s effectiveness in urban LULC clas
average Overall Accuracy (OA) of 89.6 % and an F1 score of 89.5 %, sification compared to RF. Mengesha et al. (2024) reported that SVM
compared to Random Forest (RF; OA: 88.2 %, F1: 88.1 %) and Classi outperformed RF and CART in Ethiopian agricultural mapping using
fication and Regression Trees (CART; OA: 83.8 %, F1: 83.3 %). RF integrated Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI data, while Woldemariam
ranked second, while CART had the lowest performance among the et al. (2022) noted SVM’s higher accuracy over RF in the Lake Haramaya
evaluated classifiers. These findings are consistent with prior studies Watershed. Shao and Lunetta (2012) also noted SVM’s superior accu
demonstrating SVM’s higher accuracy in LULC mapping (Jodzani et al., racy over CART for LULC classification with limited training data using
2019; Mengesha et al., 2024; Woldemariam et al., 2022). For instance, MODIS imagery. The superior performance of the RBF SVM in this study
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G. Bayable et al. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators 27 (2025) 100797
Fig. 5. Time series of: (a) NDVI, (b) LST, and (c) SMI from January 2014 to June 2025, with significant trends (P < 0.05, Modified Mann-Kendall test).
Fig. 6. Maps display: (a) Sen slopes for LST, (b) Sen slopes for SMI, (c) Sen slopes and statistical significance (P < 0.05) of LST using the Modified Mann-Kendall test,
and (d) Sen slopes and statistical significance (P < 0.05) of SMI using the Modified Mann-Kendall test, from 2014 to 2024. Positive Sen slopes indicate increasing
trends, while negative slopes indicate decreasing trends.
is likely attributable to its non-linear kernel, which effectively captures cover patterns due to its non-linear modeling and resistance to over
complex LULC patterns, and its strong generalization ability, which fitting in smaller datasets. These findings underscore the importance of
mitigates the impact of limited training sample sizes (Shao and Lunetta, evaluating multiple classifiers to select the most effective method,
2012). However, some studies report contrasting results. For instance, ensuring precise LULC mapping and reliable trend analysis for changes
Bayable et al. (2023) reported that RF outperformed SVM and CART for such as urban expansion and afforestation.
detecting Eichhornia crassipes in Lake Tana, while Loukika et al. (2021)
and Shetty et al. (2021) revealed higher RF accuracy in LULC mapping.
These discrepancies may arise from differences in data characteristics, 4.2. Spatiotemporal variability of land surface temperature, soil moisture,
such as feature complexity or training sample size, highlighting the and vegetation cover
context-specific nature of classifier performance.
Analysis of LULC changes in the Alawuha Watershed revealed urban Land Surface Temperature (LST) in the Alawuha Watershed exhibi
expansion from 16.44 km2 to 19.89 km2 and forest cover growth from ted a significant overall decrease (p < 0.05, Modified Mann-Kendall test;
42.59 km2 to 78.55 km2 between 2019 and 2024 (Table 5; Fig. 3). These Fig. 5b) from 2014 to 2025, with spatial patterns likely attributed to
changes align with Eshetie et al. (2025) and Zeleke et al. (2022), who elevation and vegetation cover. Western and southwestern regions,
linked similar patterns to population growth and Ethiopia’s Green characterized by higher elevations and dense forests (Figs. 1 and 3),
Legacy Initiative (Jalleta, 2021). Farmland, occupying approximately maintained lower LSTs, which could be due to the cooling effects of
50 % of the watershed (Table 5; Fig. 3), underscores its socioeconomic evapotranspiration and the inverse relationship between elevation and
importance, consistent with Mengistie and Kidane (2016). The vari temperature (Li et al., 2015; He et al., 2019). In contrast, eastern re
ability in LULC estimates across classifiers emphasizes the need for gions, dominated by cropland, bare land, and urban areas (Fig. 3), dis
robust algorithms like RBF SVM, which excels in capturing complex land played higher LSTs, possibly attributed to low vegetation cover and
lower elevations that enhance heat absorption and emission (Sharma
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4.3. Land surface temperature and soil moisture across LULC classes
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G. Bayable et al. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators 27 (2025) 100797
Earth imagery, which could introduce subjectivity and lead to delinea soil moisture sensors and remote sensing should be supported to opti
tion errors or misclassification. Although stratified random sampling mize irrigation. Training programs and expanded extension services are
was used to enhance class representation, we acknowledge moderate essential to reach smallholder farmers and encourage the uptake of
confidence in these samples due to potential delineation errors, partic climate-smart agriculture. Similarly, efforts in other developing coun
ularly for smaller LULC classes with limited intra-class variability. The tries should prioritize building the capacity of smallholder farmers,
study used common machine learning algorithms to classify LULC; to providing access to affordable technologies and financial incentives to
improve accuracy, more sophisticated methods such as deep learning support the adoption of sustainable practices.
models should be used. Additionally, the medium-resolution Sentinel-2 Leveraging advanced technologies for land use and environ
imagery (10–20 m) may limit the detection of small or fragmented mental monitoring: The study’s application of machine learning al
land-use types. To address these limitations, future studies could gorithms to satellite imagery underscores their potential for
incorporate longer time series (e.g., ≥20 years), enhance ground-truth environmental monitoring. Governments and environmental agencies
validation, and use high-resolution imagery (<10 m) to improve LULC should invest in machine learning-driven platforms to enable up-to-date,
classification and spatiotemporal analyses of LST and SMI in the Ala near-real-time tracking of land use and environmental changes. Inte
wuha Watershed. grating machine learning with remote sensing imagery provides
spatially explicit insights that enhance decision-making. Establishing
4.5. Policy implications regional centers of excellence in geospatial analysis, supported by in
ternational partnerships, could strengthen local capacity for environ
The findings of this study provide critical insights for policymakers mental monitoring and informed decision-making.
and stakeholders involved in sustainable land management and climate Implementing integrated cross-sectoral policies: The interplay of
resilience in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia and other similar re LULC changes, LST, and SMI demands coordinated strategies across
gions. Based on the results of the study, the following policy directions agriculture, urban development, and environmental sectors, requiring
are derived. integrated land-use planning aligned with SDGs 11 (Sustainable Cities
Enhancing forest conservation and reforestation programs: and Communities) and 15 (Life on Land). Furthermore, establishing
Forests exhibited the lowest LST and highest soil moisture index (SMI), multi-stakeholder platforms, including inter-ministerial task forces,
underscoring their role in regulating microclimates and maintaining government agencies, local communities, private sector actors, and in
water balance. To boost climate resilience, policymakers should priori ternational organizations, can foster collaboration to co-design policies
tize forest protection and reforestation. Ethiopia’s National Adaptation that balance economic development and environmental sustainability
Plan and Climate Resilient Green Economy (FDRE, 2011, 2019) high while addressing the challenges of rapid urbanization and environ
light afforestation as a key adaptation strategy, reinforced by this mental change.
study’s evidence. The IPCC’s (2023) push for nature-based solutions
further supports integrating forest conservation into national climate 5. Conclusion
action plans. Policies should tackle deforestation drivers, like unsus
tainable agricultural expansion, through community-based manage In Ethiopia, rapid land-use changes and climatic variability chal
ment, incentivized by payment for ecosystem services (PES) schemes. lenge sustainable natural resource management. This study highlights
Buffer zones around forests could also curb agricultural and urban the potential of machine learning algorithms and remote sensing tech
encroachment. Stakeholders, local communities, NGOs, and govern nology to inform effective environmental strategies. It demonstrated the
ment, should scale up initiatives like participatory forest management efficacy of machine learning algorithms for LULC classification in the
(PFM), which has proven effective in restoring degraded lands. Remote Alawuha Watershed, Northern Highlands of Ethiopia, with RBF SVM
sensing with GEE can monitor forest cover changes in near-real-time, outperforming RF and CART. LULC analysis revealed significant shifts,
ensuring compliance with reforestation targets like the Green Legacy including urban expansion, increased forest cover, stable farmland, and
Initiative. Policymakers should develop targeted policies that promote farmland’s dominant coverage in the watershed. From 2014 to 2025,
the restoration of degraded land and the expansion of green cover in LST decreased significantly, with built-up areas recording the highest
urban and rural areas. Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative could be values and forests the lowest, while SMI increased significantly, with
expanded to include the restoration of degraded lands throughout the forests showing the highest soil retention and built-up and bare lands the
country and the promotion of forestry and agroforestry systems. lowest. These findings emphasize vegetation’s unmatched ability to cool
Promoting sustainable urban planning: Built-up areas recorded microclimates and retain moisture, starkly contrasted by the heat and
the highest LST, necessitating urban planning with green infrastructure. dryness of urban and bare landscapes. They advocate for scaling up
Policies should prioritize tree planting, green roofs, and urban parks to reforestation efforts, such as Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative, and
mitigate heat island effects, aligning with UN-HABITAT’s (2024) vision embedding green infrastructure in urban planning to bolster climate
of cities as climate solutions rather than seeing cities as problems. Local resilience, offering a vital roadmap for sustainable land-use policies in
governments could enforce zoning regulations mandating green spaces regions facing similar environmental pressures.
in new urban developments, leveraging Ethiopia’s Urban Development
Policy (FDRE, 2019) for compliance. Such measures reduce LST while CRediT authorship contribution statement
enhancing livability, public health, and well-being, supported by public
awareness campaigns to boost community involvement. Getachew Bayable: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original
Adopting sustainable agricultural practices to balance produc draft, Visualization, Validation, Software, Methodology, Investigation,
tivity and ecological integrity: Agricultural land dominated the study Formal analysis, Data curation, Conceptualization. Getie Gebrie:
area, underscoring its socioeconomic importance. Climate-smart prac Writing – review & editing, Methodology, Investigation, Formal anal
tices, such as agroforestry and conservation agriculture, should be pro ysis, Data curation. Tadele Melese: Writing – review & editing, Visu
moted to enhance soil health, improve water retention, and boost alization, Supervision, Methodology, Formal analysis, Data curation,
agricultural productivity, in line with recommendations from the Food Conceptualization. Alebel Melaku: Writing – review & editing, Meth
and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2022). The FAO (2022) has advo odology, Investigation, Formal analysis, Data curation,
cated for these practices as a pathway to achieving sustainable food Conceptualization.
systems. Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy could
incentivize the adoption of such techniques to balance food security
with ecological integrity. Additionally, precision agriculture tools like
10
G. Bayable et al. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators 27 (2025) 100797
Consent of participation FAO, 2022. The state of food and agriculture 2022; leveraging automation in agriculture
for transforming agrifood systems. In: The State of Food and Agriculture 2022.
https://doi.org/10.4060/cb9479en.
Not applicable. FDRE, 2011. Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy Green Economy Strategy.
FDRE, 2019. Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy. National Adaptation
Plan.
Ethical approval Ghaderpour, E., Mazzanti, P., Bozzano, F., Scarascia Mugnozza, G., 2024. Trend analysis
of MODIS land surface temperature and land cover in central Italy. Land 13 (6),
Not applicable. 1–15. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13060796.
Ghaderpour, E., Mazzanti, P., Mugnozza, G.S., Bozzano, F., 2023. Coherency and phase
delay analyses between land cover and climate across Italy via the least-squares
Funding wavelet software. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 118 (February), 103241. https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2023.103241.
Gibson, R., Danaher, T., Hehir, W., Collins, L., 2020. A remote sensing approach to
No funding was received for this study. mapping fire severity in south-eastern Australia using sentinel 2 and random forest.
Rem. Sens. Environ. 240 (December 2019), 111702. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
rse.2020.111702.
Declaration of competing interest Gohain, K.J., Mohammad, P., Goswami, A., 2021. Assessing the impact of land use land
cover changes on land surface temperature over pune city, India. Quat. Int. 575–576,
259–269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2020.04.052.
The authors declare that they have no financial interests or personal Goward, S.N., Xue, Y., Czajkowski, K.P., 2002. Evaluating land surface moisture
relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in conditions from the remotely sensed temperature/vegetation index measurements:
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Guo, X., Fu, Q., Hang, Y., Lu, H., Gao, F., Si, J., 2020. Spatial variability of soil moisture
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