Probability Distributions

What is a Probability Distribution?

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION A listing of all the outcomes of an

experiment and the probability associated with each outcome.

CHARACTERISTICS OF A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

1. The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and 1
inclusive.
2. The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
3. The list of outcomes is exhaustive. So the sum of the probabilities
of the outcomes is equal to 1.

Example: A drug manufacturer may claim a treatment will

cause weight loss for 80% of the population. This claim could
be tested by a consumer protection agency using a sample and
statistical inference.
Probability Distribution Example
Suppose we are interested in the number of heads
showing face up with 3 tosses of a coin
The possible outcomes are 0 heads, 1 head, 2 heads, and
3 heads
X = Number of heads
Frequency Distribution Table
X = Number of heads

Value 0 1 2 3
Frequency 1 3 3 1
Probability Distribution Table
Probability distribution table and chart for the events of
zero, one, two, and three heads
Random Variables
In any experiment of chance, the outcomes occur
randomly, and so are called random variables

RANDOM VARIABLE A quantity resulting from an experiment that, by

chance, can assume different values.

Examples
The number of employees absent from the day shift on
Monday: the number might be 0, 1, 2, 3, …The number absent
is the random variable
The grade level (Freshman, Sophomore, Junior, or Senior) of
the members of the St. James High School Varsity girls’
basketball team. Grade level is the random variable (and notice
that it is a qualitative variable).
Two Types of Random Variables
One type of random variable is the discrete random
variable
Discrete variables are usually the result of counting
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE A random variable that can assume
only certain clearly separated values. (Integer)

Example
Tossing a coin three times and counting the number of heads
Discrete Random Variable
For example, the Bank of the Carolinas counts the
number of credit cards carried by a group of customers
The number of cards carried is the discrete random
variable
Continuous Random Variables
CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLE A random variable that may
assume an infinite number of values within a given range.

Continuous variables are usually the result of measuring

Real number
Examples
The time between flights between Atlanta and LA are 4.67
hours, 5.13 hours, and so on
The annual snowfall in Minneapolis, MN measured in inches
Mean and Variance of a Probability Distribution
The mean is a typical value used to represent the central
location of the data
The mean is also referred to as the expected value

The amount of spread (or variation) in the data is

described by the variance

The standard deviation of the probability distribution is

the positive square root of the variance
Probability Distribution Mean Example
John Ragsdale sells new
cars for Pelican Ford. John
usually sells the most cars
on Saturday. He has 1. What type of distribution is this?
developed a probability 2. How many cars does John expect
distribution for the to sell on a typical Saturday?
number of cars he expects 3. What is the variance?
to sell on Saturday.
Probability Distribution Variance Example
The computational steps for variance:
Subtract the mean from each value of x and square
Multiply each squared difference by its probability
Sum the resulting products to arrive at the variance
Comparison of Discrete & Continuous Probability
Distribution
Discrete Probability distribution Continuous Probability distribution

Xi x1 x2 x3 x4
Pi p1 p2 p3 p4
Normal Probability Distribution
The normal probability distribution is a continuous
distribution with the following characteristics:
It is bell-shaped and has a single peak at the center of the
distribution
The distribution is symmetric
It is asymptotic, meaning the curve approaches but never
touches the X-axis
It is completely described by its mean and standard
deviation
There is a family of normal probability distributions
Another normal probability distribution is created when
either the mean or the standard deviation changes
The Normal Curve Probability density function (p.213)
Family of Normal Probability Distributions
(The mean and standard deviation changes)

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distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
 Probability density function (p.213)

It is very difficult to take the integral for normal probability distribution.

We need to standardize this density function where the average as 0,
the standard deviation as 1.

7-17
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
The standard normal probability distribution is a
particular normal distribution
It has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1

Any normal probability distribution can be converted to

the standard normal probability distribution with the
following formula:
Areas Under the Normal Curve
Here is a portion of the “z” Table
Standardized normal probability density functions are already integrated for
us.
Standard Normal Probability Example
Rideshare services are available internationally. A customer uses a smartphone
app to request a ride. Then, a driver receives the request, picks up the
customer, and takes the customer to the desired location. No cash is involved;
the payment for the transaction is handled digitally.

Suppose the weekly income of rideshare drivers follows the normal probability
distribution with a mean of $1,000 and a standard deviation of $100. What is
the z value of income for a driver who earns $1,100 per week? For a driver
who earns $900 per week?

Regardless of whether z is +1or -1, the area under the curve is .3413
The Empirical Rule

To verify the Empirical Rule:

z of 1.00 = .3413 so .3413 × 2 = .6826 or about 68%

z of 2.00 = .4772 so .4772 × 2 = .9544 or about 95%
z of 3.00 = .4987 so .4987 × 2 = .9974 or about 99.7%
The Empirical Rule Example

As part of its quality assurance program, the Autolite Battery Company

conducts tests on battery life.
For a particular D-cell alkaline battery, the mean life is 19 hours. The useful
life of the battery follows a normal distribution with a standard deviation of
1.2 hours.
Finding Areas under the Normal Curve

Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:

P($1,000 < weekly income < $1,100) = .3413
P(weekly income < $1,100) = .3413 + .5000 =.8413
Finding Areas under the Normal Curve (2 of 4)

Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:

P($790 <weekly income < $1,000) = .4821
P(weekly income < $790) = .5000 − .4821 = .0179
Finding Areas Under the Normal Curve (3 of 4)

Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:

P($840 <weekly income < $1,000) = .4452
P($1,000 <weekly income < $1,200) = .4772
P($840 < weekly income < $1,200) = .4452 + .4772 = .9224
Finding Areas Under the Normal Curve (4 of 4)

Using the weekly incomes of Uber drivers:

P($1,000 <weekly income < $1,250) = .4938
P($1,000 <weekly income < $1,150) = .4332
P($1,150 < weekly income < $1,250) = .4938 − .4332 = .0606
Finding a Value for x Using z
Layton Tire and Rubber Company wishes to set a minimum mileage
guarantee on its new MX100 tire. Tests reveal the mean mileage is
67,900 with a standard deviation of 2,050 miles and that the distribution
follows the normal distribution. Let x represent the minimum
guaranteed mileage and use the formula for z to solve so that no more
than 4% of tires need to be replaced.
Sample Mean and Central Limit Theorem
Summary of part 1
Discrete Frequency Distribution
Discrete Probability Distribution
Continuous Probability Distribution
5-31

Population (N)

Parameters
Sampling

Mean (μ) ? Sample (n)

Standard deviation (σ) ?
Statistics
Sample mean
Estimation by Sample standard
probability deviation (s)

Sample mean is not perfectly same as

the population mean Error
5% error
Sampling Error

SAMPLING ERROR The difference between a sample statistic and its

corresponding population parameter.
Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF THE SAMPLE MEAN A probability

distribution of all possible sample means of a given sample size.
Sampling Distribution Example
Tartus Industries has seven production employees (the population).
The hourly earnings of each employee is given in the table.
1. What is the population mean?
2. What is the sampling distribution of the sample mean for
samples of size 2?
3. What is the mean of the sampling distribution?
4. What observations can be made about the population and the
sampling distribution?
Sampling Distribution Example (2 of 5)
Sampling Distribution Example (3 of 5)
2. What is the sampling distribution of the sample mean for
samples of size 2?
Sampling Distribution Example (4 of 5)
Tartus Industries has seven production employees (the population).
3. What is the mean of the sampling distribution?
Sampling Distribution Example (5 of 5)
4. What observations can be made about the population
and the sampling distribution?
Central Limit Theorem

THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM If samples of a particular size are

selected from any population, the sampling distribution of the sample
mean is approximately a normal distribution. The approximation
improves with larger samples.

If the population follows a normal probability distribution,

then for any sample size the sampling distribution of the
sample mean will also be normal
If the population distribution is symmetrical, you will see the
normal shape of the distribution of the sample mean emerge
with samples as small as 10
If the distribution is skewed or has thick tails, it may require
samples of 30 or more to observe the normality feature
Central Limit Theorem Results
Central Limit Theory Conclusions
Normal Distribution of Sample Mean
If the population follows a normal distribution, the
sampling distribution of the sample mean will also follow
the normal distribution for samples of any size
If the population is not normally distributed, the sampling
distribution of the sample mean will approach a normal
distribution when the sample size is at least 30
Assume the population standard deviation (σ) is known
To determine the probability that a sample mean falls in a
particular region, use the following formula:
Using the Sampling Distribution Example
The Quality Assurance Dept. for Cola, Inc. maintains records regarding the
amount of cola in its jumbo bottle. The actual amount of cola in each bottle
varies a small amount from one bottle to another. Records indicate the
amounts of cola follow the normal distribution, the mean amount of cola in
the bottles is 31.2 ounces, and the standard deviation is 0.4 ounces. At 8 a.m.
today, the quality technician randomly selected 16 bottles from the filling line.
The mean amount was 31.38 ounces. Is this an unlikely result? Is it a likely the
process is putting too much soda in the bottle? Is the sampling error of 0.18
ounce unusual?

We conclude that it is unlikely;

there is less than a 4% chance.
The process is putting too much
soda in the bottles.
Estimation and Confidence Intervals
Point Estimate
A point estimate is a single value (statistic) used to estimate a
population value (parameter)
POINT ESTIMATE The statistic, computed from sample information,
that estimates a population parameter.

Example
Suppose the Bureau of Tourism for Barbados wants an
estimate of the mean amount spent by tourists visiting that
country. They randomly select 500 tourists as they depart and
ask these tourists about their spending while there. The mean
amount spent by the sample of 500 tourists serves as an
estimate of the unknown population parameter.
Confidence Intervals
A confidence interval is a range of values within which the
population parameter is expected to occur
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL A range of values constructed from sample
data so that the population parameter is likely to occur within that
range at a specified probability. The specified probability is called the
level of confidence.

The factors that determine the width of a confidence

interval for a mean are
The number of observations in the sample, n
The variability in the population, usually estimated by the
sample standard deviation, s
The desired level of confidence
To determine the confidence limits when the population
standard deviation is known, we use the z distribution
The formula is
Finding a Value of z
The method for finding z for a 95% confidence interval is
Divide the confidence interval in half, .9500 ÷ 2 = .4750
Find the value .4750 in the body of the table
Identify the row and column and add the values
The probability of finding a value between 0 and 1.96 is
.4750
So the probability of finding a value between +/− 1.96 is
.9500
Level of Confidence, z Example
The American Management Association is studying the income of store
managers in the retail industry. A random sample of 49 managers reveals a
sample mean of $45,420. The standard deviation of the population is $2,050.
1. What is the population mean?
2. What is a reasonable range of values for the population mean?
3. How do we interpret these results?
 To determine the confidence limits when the population
standard deviation is unknown, we use the t distribution
The formula is

Example
The Dean of the Business College wants to estimate the mean
number of hours full-time students work at paying jobs each
week. He randomly selects a sample of 30 students and asks
them how many hours they worked last week. He can
calculate the sample mean, but it is unlikely he would know
the population standard deviation required for formula 9-1.
Determining when to use the Z or t distribution
Characteristics of the t Distribution
The t distribution is a continuous distribution
It is mound(작은 언덕)-shaped and symmetrical
It is flatter, or more spread out, than the standard normal
distribution
There is a family of t distributions, depending on the
number of degrees of freedom
Finding a Value of t
First assume the population is normal
Using Appendix B.5, move across the columns identified
for confidence intervals
In the next example, we want to use the 95% level of
confidence, so move to that column
Then find d.f., the
degrees of freedom, n-1
Level of Confidence, t Example

A tire manufacturer wishes to investigate the tread life of its tires. A sample
of 10 tires driven 50,000 miles revealed a sample mean of 0.32 inch of tread
remaining with a standard deviation of 0.09 inch. Construct a 95%
confidence interval for the population mean.
Would it be reasonable for the manufacturer to conclude that after 50,000
miles the population mean amount of tread remaining is 0.30 inch?

= 0.32 +/- (2.262)(0.09/√10) = 0.32 +/- 0.064 = 0.256 ~ 0.384

The endpoints of the confidence interval are 0.256 and 0.384. The margin of
error is 0.064. The manufacturer can be reasonably sure (95% confident)
that the mean remaining tread depth is between 0.256 and 0.384 inch.
Because the value 0.30 is in this interval, it is possible that the mean of the
population is 0.30.
Determining Sample Size for Means
There are three factors that determine the sample size
when we wish to estimate the mean
The margin of error, E
The desired level of confidence, for example 95% z
The variation in the population standard deviation
The formula to determine the sample size for the mean is

The result is not always a whole number; the usual

practice is to round up any fractional result to the next
whole number.
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Sample Size to Estimate a Population Mean Example
(p.300)

A student in public administration wants to estimate the mean monthly

earnings of city council members in large cities. She can tolerate a margin of
error of $100 in estimating the mean. She would also prefer to report the
interval estimate with a 95% level of confidence. The student found a report
by the Department of Labor that reported a standard deviation of $1,000.
What is the required sample size?

n = ((1.96)((1,000)/100)^2 = 384.16

The computed value of 384.16 is rounded up to 385. A sample size of 385 is

required to meet the specifications.

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Determining Sample Size for Proportions

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distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
Sample Size for the Population Proportion Example

The student in the previous example also wants to estimate the proportion
of cities that have private refuse collectors. The student wants to estimate
the population proportion with a margin of error of .10, prefers a level of
confidence of 90%, and has no estimate for the population proportion.
What is the required sample size?

n = (.50)(1-.50)(1.645/0.1)2 = 67.65

The student needs a random sample of 68 cities.

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distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.