Real Estate Price Statistics in

Oman

International Workshop on Short-term Statistics

18-20 May 2015
Beijing, China.

Hilal Al Harthi

1
 Outline

Real Estate Index Overview

Land Price Index
Construction Input Price Index
Results
Challenges
Conclusion

2
Real Estate Price Index Overview
A Proxy index combining of two separate indices:
A. Land Price Index
Measures the average price change of land plots
in the country.

B. Construction Inputs Price Index

Measures the change in average overall costs
involved in construction

Not follow the purchase prices for complete real

estate units.
Nor is it based on the re-sale of real estate units.
Real Estate Price Index Overview
REPI measures the total costs involved in the
developing residential real estate.

This is probably still the most typical way of

getting family housing in Oman.

Each citizen has a right to own at least one

residential plot.
A) Land Price Index

Concepts and scope

Quarterly Indicator measures the average price

changes of land plot around the country

Actual selling prices on a sample of blocks

or prices estimated by local real estate companies

(in case of no transaction has been made during the
month)
Sample & Data Source
Oman divided into 10 regions oo o
oo
o
Al Wasta & Musandam were oo o ‫ا‬
excluded from the sample. o ‫ح‬

1st stage: Selection of wilayat.

2nd stage: selection of blocks
(Blocks as Ministry of Housing
definition)

SALALAHo
Sample & Data Source
oo o
oo
o
Sample of 20 wilayats using (PPS) ‫ا‬
oo o
sampling Transaction value o ‫ح‬
The frame Ministry of Housing real
estate register

Sample of 175 blocks using (PPS)

sampling No. of transaction
The frame Ministry of Housing
real estate register

100 estate agencies

A) Land Price Index weights
The Index weighted based on total value transactions
Figure 1. LPI Weights Structure
Weight

Muscat

Dhofar

Ash- Sharqiyah North

Ash- Sharqiyah South

Ad-Dakhliyah

Al Buraymi

Al - BatinahNorth

Al - Batinah South

Adh - Dhahirah

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

LPI Questionnaire
The data collected during (Feb. , May, Aug. ,
Nov. ) and includes:

Actual average price of actual selling transactions

Estimated price based on knowledge of market
prices
Plot area in square meter
Is the plot empty or built-on
Number of transaction

9
B) Construction Input Price Index
Concepts and scope

o Quarterly Indicator measures the average

price changes of construction sector inputs;
materials, labor, plant & other costs.

o This inputs is measured for different

construction types; residential, non residential &
infrastructure.

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B) Construction Input Price Index
Construction types

1st satge was to determine the projects or the

construction types:
Using tender board data, building permits data ,
discussion with construction companies and others
sources
Residential buildings
Villas low cost – medium cost - high cost
Apartment buildings
Non-residential buildings
Commercial
Non-commercial
Other construction
Transport infrastructure
Networks 11
 Over-all structure
The weight structure is identified individually for
different types
The CIPI is compiled separately for the two main
types of construction (Building & Infrastructure)
Figure 2. CIPI overall Structure

12
Inputs structure and weights
2nd stage: Building type level weights:
Source: Sample of actual project BoQs from tender
board analyzed by quantity surveyors:

o Quantity surveyors task:

Defined the inputs
Highly detailed cost structure for all inputs
Cost shares within each construction type
Cost share matrix (Construction type, cost element)

NCSI staffs defined the basket items by asking the

building materials companies and other sources for
the fast moving items
Construction inputs
Figure 3. CIPI Inputs

14
 Cost share matrix (Construction type, cost element)
Figure 4. Cost share matrix (Weights)
Commer Combin Wareho Health Health
Low- Medium Apart- Commer Govern- Educati
cial ed res ./ us e & building building Mos qu
cos t cos t ment -cial Hotels ment on
retail / comm. indus tri es
villa villa building office office building
wholes a building al (Hos pit (Health
12.1% 33.4% 15.2% 3.9% 5.9% 5.9% 2.0% 2.0% 6.9% 6.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Mate rials 56.9% 60.1% 58.9% 61.2% 60.9% 62.1% 62.9% 57.7% 63.6% 56.4% 64.0% 58.4% 61.0%
1 Concrete and aggregates 12.5 12.8 10.5 4.7 9.1 7.1 7.3 9.9 8.4 14.1 7.7 8.6 10.3
2 Precast Concrete Blocks 2.9 2.9 1.6 0.6 1.4 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.5 3.6 1.6 1.5 1.3
3 Steel 11.0 8.9 11.1 23.1 11.0 8.3 4.7 26.4 9.5 9.5 5.6 6.8 10.0
4 Waterproofing 6.8 4.1 2.0 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.7 1.9 1.3 3.0 2.2 2.6 6.4
5 Timber 3.0 5.7 6.2 2.0 7.1 3.1 10.6 1.7 4.0 5.9 3.2 7.7 5.1
6 Doors and windows 5.7 4.0 3.3 1.4 5.5 6.3 2.3 3.1 4.3 2.4 1.3 2.2 0.8
7 Finishes 6.6 8.8 10.0 2.1 8.1 5.4 6.4 1.6 9.4 7.1 5.2 4.5 9.9
8 Conveying system - - - 1.0 1.6 2.2 1.5 - 2.1 - 1.4 - -
9 Mechanical installations 3.1 3.0 4.5 2.8 4.9 2.8 3.7 2.1 1.7 1.6 6.9 4.7 0.9
10 Sanitaryware 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 3.1 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.1 2.6 0.1
11 Building management system - - - 1.1 - 0.4 - - - - 1.7 - -
12 Air conditioning 0.8 6.7 3.5 8.3 5.0 8.8 10.5 4.7 10.1 2.4 10.9 7.1 12.1
13 Electrical installations 3.9 2.7 5.4 13.5 5.4 14.8 10.5 5.4 10.6 6.3 15.1 10.2 4.0

Labor 25.2% 23.4% 24.4% 20.1% 22.2% 18.4% 20.7% 19.3% 20.5% 22.9% 20.1% 23.0% 22.7%
1 Skilled 20.8 19.1 20.0 17.0 18.7 14.9 16.9 15.8 16.8 18.3 16.6 18.6 18.5
2 Semi Skilled 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.3
3 Unskilled 4.1 3.8 3.7 2.6 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.1 4.1 3.0 3.4 3.9

Pla nt 6.7% 6.3% 6.1% 6.1% 6.4% 5.6% 5.1% 10.7% 5.1% 9.4% 4.7% 8.1% 6.0%
P1 Excavating & Earth Moving Equipments
1.7 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.1 4.5 0.4 3.5 0.4 2.6 1.3
P2 Compacting Equipments 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.4 0.3 1.3 0.3 0.8 0.6
P3 Mixing Equipments 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3
P4 Transporting Equipments - - - - - - - - - - - - -
P5 Hoisting Equipments 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.3 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.5 1.8
P6 Other Equipments 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.7 1.3 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.1

Overheads a nd profits 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
O1 Construction costs 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
O2 Support 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
O3 Miscellaneous 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

15
Cost share matrix (Construction type, cost element)
Figure 5. Cost share matrix (Weights)

16
Data Sources
Building material
Building materials wholesalers & retailers
Wage and salary
Construction companies
Plant costs
Rentals of vehicles and machinery
Other measures
Proxy measures for some parts of the index

o 125 items from 156 Outlets

o Around 1500 price each quarter + labor data
o Coverage: Whole Sultanate, Muscat the largest
source with over 50% of sources
Dissemination
LPI Regional indices (The Sultanate, Muscat,
Dhofar, …)
CIPI The Sultanate index by building types and
Cost elements.

Currently, they are presented within the NCSI only.

Will be released in the monthly statistical bulletin.
A quarterly real estate bulletin will provide more
detailed data.
NCSI website
RESULTS

19
Figure 6. LPI for the Sultanate
Land Price Index _ The Sultanate
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
 ( ‫را‬ ‫() ب‬ ‫ا‬ ‫وا‬ ‫د)ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ت ا ء‬#$‫د‬ % ‫ا(ر' م ا‬
Figure 7. CIPI for Total Construction(Buildings&Infrastructure) by Cost Elements

GEN ERAL CON STRU CTION

Cost Element W eight Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014

Material 54.1 98.4 101.4 103.27 98.76 96.93 95.86 95.72 94.35 93.79
M1 Concrete and aggregates 10.0 99.2 93.0 87.07 100.62 100.64 100.42 100.82 100.58 100.99
M2 Precast Concrete Blocks 2.5 99.7 87.6 85.73 99.26 100.73 100.74 99.80 100.05 100.55
M3 Steel 7.8 97.7 124.8 132.38 99.71 88.20 83.29 81.76 77.75 76.20
M4 W aterproofing 2.2 99.3 114.0 106.62 99.76 99.85 106.78 105.05 104.33 103.93
M5 Timber 3.5 95.7 90.1 95.90 101.37 100.27 101.34 99.53 100.52 100.08
M6 Doors and windows 2.5 100.4 101.4 97.61 95.72 95.52 95.98 92.06 91.90 91.17
M7 Finishes 4.9 100.4 101.1 105.11 98.33 99.04 103.73 103.41 99.69 99.57
M8 Conveying system 0.3 100.0 106.0 107.78 100.17 100.17 100.57 104.23 102.71 102.71
M9 Mechanical installations 2.7 90.5 88.0 91.58 92.71 91.83 92.49 92.75 91.83 89.42
M10 Sanitaryware 0.4 99.0 98.1 98.48 101.01 100.00 104.41 101.08 101.00 100.69
M11 Building management system 0.1 98.3 104.0 112.05 - - - - - -
M12 Air conditioning 3.4 100.0 105.3 104.51 102.27 98.56 94.15 101.80 93.32 93.05
M13 Electrical installations 4.9 96.2 106.4 115.57 93.74 92.12 89.60 86.30 85.87 87.65
M14 Infrastructure materials 8.9 99.7 95.6 99.76 99.31 100.58 96.42 98.08 99.09 96.83

PLAN T 14.1 99.2 95.8 108.00 100.01 96.93 103.34 104.05 105.05 100.51
LABOU R 19.9 99.9 101.3 110.17 98.99 100.79 123.22 123.22 124.50 124.50
OVERH EAD 11.9 100.0 101.7 104.65 99.14 87.95 87.86 88.31 88.42 88.49

TOTAL IN DEX 100.0 99.0 100.6 105.48 99.03 96.63 101.40 101.48 101.14 100.21

21
Figure 8. CIPI for Total Construction(Buildings&Infrastructure) by Cost Elements

22
 ‫را‬ ‫ب‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ت ا ء‬#$‫د‬ % ‫ا(ر' م ا‬
Figure 9. CIPI for Infrastructure by Cost Elements

IN FRASTRU CT U RE
Cost Element W eight Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014

M aterial 45.1 98.8 98.1 101.10 98.92 98.79 96.55 97.17 97.23 96.22
M1 Concrete and aggregates 8.4 99.6 94.4 88.39 - - - - - -
M2 Precast Concrete Blocks 3.0 97.1 81.8 80.27 98.87 100.78 102.70 101.33 101.33 102.70
M3 Steel 3.6 98.3 126.0 133.74 90.96 80.47 76.22 74.77 70.27 69.02
M4 W aterproofing 0.4 99.9 96.4 96.92 89.66 89.15 88.10 88.10 88.11 87.96
M5 Timber 1.2 96.5 94.1 98.20 101.28 98.66 101.55 99.02 100.31 100.46
M6 Doors and windows 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - - - - - -
M7 Finishes 0.3 97.2 92.7 95.49 101.74 96.18 100.11 99.69 100.73 100.80
M8 Conveying system 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - - - - - -
M9 Mechanical installations 1.9 97.7 98.2 105.55 99.61 103.68 102.81 103.76 102.28 101.05
M10 Sanitaryware - - - - - - - - - -
M11 Building management system - - - - - - - - - -
M12 Air conditioning - - - - - - - - - -
M13 Electrical installations 3.2 93.6 111.5 126.38 99.80 98.57 95.04 92.77 93.09 93.93
M 14 Infrastructure materials 23.1 99.7 95.6 99.76 99.31 100.58 96.42 98.08 99.09 96.83

PLAN T 25.8 99.6 95.8 109.73 100.27 96.88 102.55 103.31 105.90 101.96
LABOU R 14.1 99.9 100.7 110.37 98.96 101.08 124.60 124.60 124.75 124.75
OVERH EAD 15.0 100.0 101.5 104.22 99.18 88.77 88.71 89.10 89.20 89.27

TOTAL IN DEX 100.0 99.3 98.4 105.10 99.31 97.12 100.88 101.41 102.14 100.68

23
Figure 10. CIPI for Infrastructure by Cost Elements

24
Challenges

o LPI:
- Some times we have few available prices
estimated prices based on agent knowledge
- large differences in prices within a block due to plot
location (corner, near the main road, …), other factors
we ask for a typical type of plot

o CIPI :
- Labor data (response rate, …)

25
Conclusion

The real estate Index is an experimental indicator that

combines the two indices (LPI & CIPI)
The aim is to summarize the two different sources of
inflation in real estate, the asset (LPI) & physical
construction cost (CIPI)

Our Plan: other indices:

for new houses (in practice normally dwellings)
for existing constructions (re-sale price for existing
dwellings)

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Thank you

27