STA01A1 Solution 5, University of Johannesburg 1
SOLUTION 5
45.
a. P(A) = 0.106 + 0.141 + 0.200 = 0.447
P(C) = 0.215 + 0.200 + 0.065 + 0.020 = 0.500
P(A C) = 0.200
P ( A C ) 0.200
b. P(A|C) = = = 0.400
P (C ) 0.500
If we know that the individual came from ethnic group 3, the probability that he has type A blood
is 0.40.
P ( A C ) 0.200
P(C|A) = = = 0.447
P ( A) 0.447
If a person has type A blood, the probability that he is from ethnic group 3 is 0.447
c. Define event D = {ethnic group 1 selected}
P ( D B) 0.192
We are asked for P(D|B) = = = 0.211
P ( B) 0.909
P(DB)= 0.082 + 0.106 + 0.004 = 0.192
P(B) = 1 – P(B) = 1 – [0.008 + 0.018 + 0.065] = 0.909
56.
P( A | B) + P( A | B)
P( A B) P( A B)
= +
P( B) P( B)
P( A B) + P( A B)
=
P( B)
P( B)
=
P( B)
=1
57. P(B|A) > P(B)
→ P(B|A) + P(B’|A) > P(B) + P(B’|A)
→ P(B) + P(B’|A) < 1 by Exercise 55.
Thus, P(B’|A) < 1 – P(B) = P(B’).
60.
STA01A1 Solution 5, University of Johannesburg 2
P (not .disc has.loc) 0.03
a. P(not disc | has loc) = = = 0.067
P (has.loc) 0.03 + 0.42
P (disc no.loc) 0.28
b. P(disc | no loc) = = = 0.509
P (no.loc) 0.55
73. P(A B)
= P(B) – P(A B)
= P(B) - P(A) • P(B)
= [1 – P(A)] • P(B)
= P(A)• P(B).
Alternatively,
P( A | B)
P( A B)
=
P( B)
P( B) − P( A B)
=
P( B)
P( B) − P( A) P( B)
=
P( B)
= 1 − P( A) = P( A)
79. Let A1 = older pump fails, A2 = newer pump fails, and x = P(A1 A2).
Then
P(A1) = 0.10 + x, P(A2) = 0.05 + x
and x = P(A1 A2) = P(A1) •P(A2) = (0.10 + x)(0.05 + x) .
The resulting quadratic equation
x 2 - 0.85 x + 0.005 = 0
has roots x = 0.0059 and x = 0.8441.
Hopefully the smaller root is the actual probability of system failure.
83.
You will have to use Venn diagrams to solve this problem – this is not a two stage problem
where you can use a tree diagram. We have 2 events that are not mutually exclusive.
First order of business would be to calculate the probability of the intersection:
P(first inspector detects defectives AND second inspector detects defectives)
= 1 – P(at least one doesn’t) This means A doesn’t or B d doesn’t or both doesn’t
(colour your Venn diagram then it is easily seen)
= 1 – 0.2
= 0.8
Note: It was given that P(at least one doesn’t) = 0.2
STA01A1 Solution 5, University of Johannesburg 3
P(both detect the defect) = 1 – P(at least one doesn’t) = 1 - 0.2 = 0.8
a. P(1st detects 2nd doesn’t)
= P(1st detects) – P(1st does 2nd does)
= 0.9 - 0.8 = 0.1
Similarly,
P(1st doesn’t 2nd does) = 0.1,
so P(exactly one does) = 0.1 + 0.1= 0.2
b. P(neither detects a defect)
= 1 – [P(both do) + P(exactly 1 does)]
= 1 – [0.8 + 0.2] = 0
So P(all 3 escape) = (0)(0)(0) = 0.
92.
a. He will have one type of form left if either 4 withdrawals or 4 course substitutions remain.
This means the first six were either 2 withdrawals and 4 subs or 6 withdrawals and 0 subs;
the desired probability is
6 4 6
+
2 4 6 = 16 = 0.0762
10 210
6
b. He can start with the wd forms: W-C-W-C or with the cs forms: C-W-C-W:
# of ways: 6 4 5 3 + 4 6 3 5 = 2(360) = 720;
The total # ways to arrange the four forms: 10 9 8 7 = 5040.
The desired probability is 720/5040 = 0.1429
101. Let A = 1st functions, B = 2nd functions.
So P(B) = 0.9, P(A B) = 0.96, P(A B) = 0.75.
Thus,
P(A B)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)
= P(A) + 0.9 - 0.75
= 0.96,
implying P(A) = 0.81.
P ( B A) 0.75
This gives P(B | A) = = = 0.926
P ( A) 0.81
STA01A1 Solution 5, University of Johannesburg 4
104. Let B denote the event that a component needs rework. Then
3
P(B) = P( B| A ) P( A ) = (0.05)(0.50) + (0.08)(0.30) + (0.10)(0.20) = 0.069
i =1
i i
(0.05)(0.50)
Thus P(A1 | B) = = 0.362
0.069
(0.08)(0.30)
P(A2 | B) = = 0.348
0.069
(0.10)(0.20)
P(A3 | B) = = 0.290
0.069
