Chapter 04

The document provides an overview of probability, including definitions, types of events, and rules for calculating probabilities. It covers concepts such as sample space, mutually exclusive events, conditional probability, and counting rules, along with examples to illustrate these concepts. Additionally, it discusses different approaches to probability, including relative frequency, classic, and subjective approaches.

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Chapter 04

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Phuti Leshaba

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 What is probability?

 Probability is a numerical value used to

express the chance that a specific event
will occur.
 Probability is always in the interval 0 to 1
and can be expressed as percentages.
 The greater the chance that an event will
occur, the closer the probability is to 1.
 The smaller the chance that an event will
occur, the closer the probability is to 0.
 Probabilities are needed to make
generalizations about the population based
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on a sample drawn from the population.
 Experiment
 Process that results in obtaining observations
from an experimental unit.
 Experimental unit is the object on which the
observations are made.
 Results of experiment are called outcomes.
 Stochastic experiment
 The results are a definite set of two or more
possible outcomes.
 The outcome can not be determined in advance.
 Can be repeated under stable conditions.
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 Sample space
 Collection of all possible outcomes of an
experiment.
 It is denoted by S.
 List all possible outcomes inside braces.
S={ }
S

4
 Event
 Collection of some outcomes of the sample
space.
 It is denoted by A, B, C, etc.
 List all possible outcomes inside braces.
 A={ }
 Can have one or more
outcomes. S
A

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 Event
 Can define more than one event for the same
sample space.
 Two or more events are mutually exclusive if
they can not occur at the same time.
 Events A and B are mutually exclusive.

S
B
A

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 Event
 Can define more than one event for the same
sample space.
 Two or more events are non mutually
exclusive if they can occur at the same time.
 Events A and C are non mutually exclusive.
 Probability of an event
S
 Probability of Event A.
A

C 7
 Properties of probability:
1. 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
2. P(B) = 0
 B impossible event
3. P(C) = 1
 C certain event
4. P(S) = 1
5. Compliment of Event A:
 P(Ā) = 1 – P(A)

8
Three approaches to probability
1. Relative frequency approach
 The probabilities of the outcomes differ.
 Counting the number of times that an event
occurs when performing an experiment a
large number of times.
number of times event A occurred
P(event A) 
number of times the experiment was repeated
f
P( A) 
n
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Three approaches to probability
1.Relative frequency approach
Example
In a group of 20 tourists staying in a hotel,
nine prefer to use cash to pay for their
accommodation.
The probability that a tourist will use cash to
pay for accommodation is:
f 9
P( A)    0, 45
n 20

10
Three approaches to probability
2. Classic approach
 All the outcomes have the same probabilities.
 Not necessary to performing an experiment a
large number of times.

number of outcomes of experiment favourable to the event

P(eventA) 
total number of outcomes of experiment
f
P( A) 
n
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Three approaches to probability
2. Classic approach
Example
 Chance to get an uneven (Odd) number on
a dice:
S = {1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6}
F = {1; 3; 5}

1 1 1 3
P( F )      0,5
6 6 6 6

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Three approaches to probability
3. Subjective approach
 The probabilities assigned to the outcomes of
the experiment is subjective to the person who
performs the experiment.

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 The word “or” in probability is an indication of
addition
 P(A or B)
 The word “and” in probability is an indication of
multiplication
 P(A and B)

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Addition rules for calculating probabilities
 Events are mutually exclusive when they
have no outcomes in common.
For mutually exclusive events:
 P(A or B) = P(A) + P( B) – P(A and B)
= P(A) + P(B)
= 4/21 + 3/21
= 7/21 = 0,3333
B
A
Events A and B are
mutually exclusive S
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Addition rules for calculating probabilities
 Events are not mutually exclusive when
they have outcomes in common
If events are not mutually exclusive
 P(C or D) = P(C) + P(D) – P(C and D)
P(C or D) = 5/21 + 5/21 – 2/21 = 8/21 = 0,3810
Outcomes are included in C and D.

Events C and D are

not mutually exclusive
S
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Conditional probability
 Need to know the probability of an event given another
event has already occurred
 The two events must be dependent (the outcomes
of one event affects the probability of the occurrence
of another event).
 Probability of A, given B has occurred:
P( A and B)
 P(A|B) = , P(B) ≠ 0
P( B)
 Multiplication rule:
 P(A and B) = P (B)P(A|B)
 Probability of B, given A has occurred:
P( A and B)
 P(B|A) = , P(A) ≠ 0 17
P( A)
Independent Events
 Events are statistically independent if the
outcome of one event does not affect the
probability of occurrence of another event.
 Therefore: P(A|B) = P(A) and P(B|A) = P(B)
 Multiplication rule for dependent events:
 P(A and B) = P(B)P(A|B) = P(A|B) P(B)
 Multiplication rule for independent events:
 P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

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Example
• Department of social development conducted a study about the treatment
received by orphans from their guardians. They found that 50% of the
orphans goes to school without pocket money, 32% do not have school
materials and 18% goes to school without pocket money and do not have
school materials.
– Let G be the event the orphans goes to school without pocket money.
– Let M be the event the orphans do not have school materials.
• If an orphan is randomly chosen, what is the probability that the orphan;
1. goes to school with pocket money?
2. does not have school material given that she/he goes to school without pocket
money
3. does not have school material or goes to school without pocket money.
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Solutions

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Example
• Suppose event A and B are
independent such that P (A) = 0,5
and P (B) = 0,3. Find P(A|B)

21
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Counting rules
 Multi-stage experiments
 The number of outcomes for ‘j’ trails each with a different number of
‘n’ outcomes.
 The number of outcomes in S = n1 x n2 … X nj
Roll a die (n1 = 6), and the toss a coin(n2=2) twice
S = n1 x n2 x n3 = 6 x 2 x 2 = 24

Example
Need to order a meal where you can pick ‘1’ burger (n1) from ‘8’, ’1’ cool
drink (n2) from ’10’, ‘1’ ice cream (n3) from ‘5’.

Number of possible orders: 8×10×5 = 400

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Counting rules
 The factorial
 The number of ways in which ‘r’ objects can be
arranged in a row, without replacement.
 r! = r×(r– 1)×(r – 2)× …×3×2×1
 Note: r! = 0! = 1
Example
Six athletes compete in a race. Determine the
number of order arrangements for completing the
race.
6! = 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720 different ways
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Counting rules
 Combination
 Select r objects without replacement from a larger
set of n objects, order of selection not important.
n!
n Cr 
r !(n  r )!
Example
Six lotto numbers should be selected from a possible
49 numbers (order of selection not important).
49!
n Cr  49 C6   13 983 816
6!(49  6)!
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Counting rules
 Permutation
 Select r objects without replacement from a larger
set of n objects, order of selection is important.
n!
n Pr 
(n  r )!
Example
Six athletes in a race, how many ways to compete
for the gold, silver and bronze medals.
6!
n Pr  6 P3   120
(6  3)!
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Determining a probability using a
contingency table.

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In chapter 2 we looked at an example to organise
qualitative data into a frequency distribution table.

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Organising and graphing qualitative data in a
frequency distribution table.
Example:
The data below shows the gender of 160 students and the
diploma they registered for at TUT.
HR – Human resources
Std. no. Gender Dip. Std. no. Gender Mark. …..
Dip – Marketing
1 M HR 6 M Fin. – Finance
Fin. …..
M – Male2 F Mark. 7 M Mark. …..
F – Female
3 M Fin. 8 M Fin. …..
4 F HR 9 F HR …..
5 F Fin. 10 F Fin. ….. 29
Organising and graphing qualitative data in a frequency
distribution table.