Warburg Research 20250528
Warburg Research 20250528
RESEARCH
(SDAX, Software/IT, NA9 GR)
Rel. Performance vs SDAX: EPS 14.5 % n.a. 5.58 3.64 3.69 4.84 5.26 5.54
DPS n.a. 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.10 1.30 1.30
1 month: -5.2 % Dividend Yield n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.2 % 1.8 % 2.2 % 2.2 %
6 months: -61.8 % FCFPS 1.81 4.09 3.54 4.15 7.77 5.24 5.51
Year to date: -45.0 % FCF / Market cap n.a. 3.4 % 4.0 % 5.0 % 13.0 % 8.8 % 9.2 %
Trailing 12 months: -35.5 % EV / Sales n.a. 2.1 x 1.5 x 1.3 x 0.9 x 0.8 x 0.7 x
EV / EBIT adj. n.a. 15.5 x 15.8 x 12.5 x 8.6 x 7.5 x 6.7 x
Company events: EV / EBIT n.a. 16.2 x 16.8 x 13.0 x 9.0 x 7.8 x 6.9 x
14.08.25 Q2 P/E n.a. 21.8 x 24.4 x 22.3 x 12.4 x 11.4 x 10.8 x
14.11.25 Q3 Net Debt 149.7 141.1 195.7 165.5 62.8 7.6 -48.5
ROCE (NOPAT) 18.8 % 31.4 % 18.4 % 15.9 % 18.9 % 21.9 % 22.7 %
Guidance: 2025: revenue: EUR 1,020-1,080m; adj. EBITDA margin: 14.5-15.5%
Analyst
An dr ea s Wo lf COMMENT Published 28.05.2025 08:15 1
awolf@warburg-research.co m
+49 40 309537-140
Nagarro RESEARCH
Company Background
Nagarro provides technology and custom software development services for digital transformation,...
...with a focus on disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and internet of things.
Complementary business fields such as managed services, e-commerce solutions or ERP consulting complete the offering.
While the majority of revenue is generated in higher price countries, Nagarro is able to serve this demand with access to experts in
regions associated with lower costs.
Competitive Quality
Nagarro is a trusted and valued digitalisation partner developing tailor-made software to achieve competitive differentiation for its clients.
Technological focus and expertise position the company as an IT engineering expert rather than a consulting or services company.
Proprietary software Ginger supports collaboration, a decentralised organisational structure which provides access to IT talent and
enables Nagarro to serve both, small and large companies around the globe.
Organizational design and processes allow Nagarro to cross-fertilize knowledge across the global organisation and adapt quickly to
new technologies and client needs with lean and agile teams and short time-to-market.
Access to scarce IT specialists: Nagarro's approx. 17,000 IT experts e.g. in India, China or Romania have a strong footprint in future-
oriented technologies such as cloud, AI, IoT, deep learning or big data.
Sales by region
2024; in %
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DCF model
Detailed forecast period Transitional period Term. Value
Figures in EUR m 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e 2032e 2033e 2034e 2035e 2036e 2037e
Sales 1,010.0 1,060.5 1,113.5 1,169.2 1,224.2 1,278.2 1,331.3 1,383.3 1,434.1 1,483.5 1,531.6 1,578.3 1,609.9
Sales change 3.9 % 5.0 % 5.0 % 5.0 % 4.7 % 4.4 % 4.2 % 3.9 % 3.7 % 3.4 % 3.2 % 3.0 % 2.0 % 2.0 %
EBIT 95.6 103.4 108.5 113.4 120.0 125.3 130.5 135.6 140.5 145.4 150.1 154.7 157.8
EBIT-margin 9.5 % 9.8 % 9.7 % 9.7 % 9.8 % 9.8 % 9.8 % 9.8 % 9.8 % 9.8 % 9.8 % 9.8 % 9.8 %
Tax rate (EBT) 28.0 % 28.0 % 28.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 %
NOPAT 68.8 74.5 78.1 77.1 81.6 85.2 88.7 92.2 95.6 98.9 102.1 105.2 107.3
Depreciation 38.7 40.4 42.2 12.9 12.2 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 17.7
in % of Sales 3.8 % 3.8 % 3.8 % 1.1 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 %
Changes in provisions -12.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
- Other 24.8 26.1 27.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PV of FCF 120.8 68.7 66.6 8.4 52.1 50.8 49.3 47.7 46.1 44.4 42.7 40.9 40.4 698
share of PVs 18.60 % 30.70 % 50.70 %
Other: IFRS 16 impact in the detailed forecast. Depreciation and capex at same levels thereafter.
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Valuation
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026e 2027e
Price / Book n.a. 10.7 x 7.0 x 4.9 x 3.1 x 2.5 x 2.1 x
Book value per share ex intangibles n.a. -3.36 -4.84 -2.63 -0.11 4.29 8.76
EV / Sales n.a. 2.1 x 1.5 x 1.3 x 0.9 x 0.8 x 0.7 x
EV / EBITDA n.a. 12.5 x 11.8 x 9.4 x 6.4 x 5.6 x 5.0 x
EV / EBIT n.a. 16.2 x 16.8 x 13.0 x 9.0 x 7.8 x 6.9 x
EV / EBIT adj.* n.a. 15.5 x 15.8 x 12.5 x 8.6 x 7.5 x 6.7 x
P / FCF n.a. 29.7 x 25.1 x 19.8 x 7.7 x 11.4 x 10.9 x
P/E n.a. 21.8 x 24.4 x 22.3 x 12.4 x 11.4 x 10.8 x
P / E adj.* n.a. 21.8 x 24.4 x 22.3 x 12.4 x 11.4 x 10.8 x
Dividend Yield n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.2 % 1.8 % 2.2 % 2.2 %
FCF Potential Yield (on market EV) n.a. 5.2 % 5.0 % 5.8 % 9.8 % 11.2 % 12.6 %
*Adjustments made for: -
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Financial Ratios
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026e 2027e
Total Operating Costs / Sales 87.2 % 83.0 % 87.0 % 86.2 % 87.0 % 86.7 % 86.7 %
Operating Leverage 0.1 x 2.6 x -4.0 x 2.5 x -0.3 x 1.6 x 1.0 x
EBITDA / Interest expenses 9.0 x 13.0 x 6.5 x 6.3 x 22.4 x 24.0 x 25.1 x
Tax rate (EBT) 21.5 % 24.0 % 26.3 % 37.9 % 28.0 % 28.0 % 28.0 %
Dividend Payout Ratio n.a. 0.0 % 0.0 % 27.1 % 22.7 % 24.7 % 23.5 %
Sales per Employee n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
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Financial Ratios
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026e 2027e
Efficiency of Capital Employment
Operating Assets Turnover 6.3 x 6.1 x 5.7 x 4.9 x 7.4 x 7.5 x 7.7 x
Capital Employed Turnover 2.2 x 2.9 x 2.5 x 2.5 x 3.0 x 3.1 x 3.2 x
ROA 11.9 % 28.5 % 16.5 % 15.2 % 20.2 % 22.0 % 23.2 %
Return on Capital
ROCE (NOPAT) 18.8 % 31.4 % 18.4 % 15.9 % 18.9 % 21.9 % 22.7 %
ROE 42.7 % 60.8 % 30.0 % 25.0 % 26.9 % 24.6 % 21.4 %
Adj. ROE 42.7 % 60.8 % 30.0 % 25.0 % 26.9 % 24.6 % 21.4 %
Balance sheet quality
Net Debt 149.7 141.1 195.7 165.5 62.8 7.6 -48.5
Net Financial Debt 139.5 129.6 180.8 142.9 52.8 -2.4 -58.5
Net Gearing 154.6 % 89.5 % 114.8 % 74.3 % 22.7 % 2.3 % -12.3 %
Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA 198.6 % 89.1 % 152.5 % 106.6 % 39.3 % n.a. n.a.
Book Value / Share n.a. 11.5 12.8 16.7 19.2 23.6 28.1
Book value per share ex intangibles n.a. -3.4 -4.8 -2.6 -0.1 4.3 8.8
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Financial Ratios
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026e 2027e
Cash Flow
FCF 21.6 56.6 47.7 55.3 103.5 69.9 73.4
Free Cash Flow / Sales 4.0 % 6.6 % 5.2 % 5.7 % 10.2 % 6.6 % 6.6 %
Free Cash Flow Potential 59.3 95.5 69.0 72.8 84.3 90.5 94.6
Free Cash Flow / Net Profit 72.1 % 73.3 % 97.1 % 112.5 % 160.4 % 99.6 % 99.5 %
Interest Received / Avg. Cash 0.4 % 0.5 % 1.6 % 2.3 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Interest Paid / Avg. Debt 3.6 % 4.6 % 6.9 % 6.7 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 %
Management of Funds
Investment ratio 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 %
Maint. Capex / Sales 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Capex / Dep 10.9 % 12.5 % 19.4 % 19.8 % 20.1 % 20.0 % 19.9 %
Avg. Working Capital / Sales 10.8 % 11.9 % 15.2 % 17.4 % 15.8 % 12.6 % 12.6 %
Trade Debtors / Trade Creditors 559.6 % 1136.7 % 1017.4 % 1287.0 % 394.5 % 394.7 % 394.5 %
Inventory Turnover 219.6 x 291.6 x 73124.0 x 68879.0 x 153.5 x 150.6 x 158.1 x
Receivables collection period (days) 69 67 73 83 75 75 75
Payables payment period (days) 114 65 90 90 250 268 268
Cash conversion cycle (Days) -102 -70 -91 -83 -293 -319 -319
CAPEX and Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Generation Working Capital
in EUR m
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SOURCES
All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise.
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Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, within the last twelve months participated in the management of a consortium for an issue in
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Companies affiliated with Warburg Research manage financial instruments, which are, or the issuers of which are, subject of the investment
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-6a-
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-6c- The issuer holds shares of more than 5% of the total issued capital of Warburg Research or an affiliated company.
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Company Disclosure Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months)
Nagarro 3, 5 https://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE000A3H2200.htm
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INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION
Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of
the analyst who covers this financial instrument.
-B- Buy: The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months.
-H- Hold: The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12 months.
-S- Sell: The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months.
“-“ Rating suspended: The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company.
Buy 142 71
Hold 47 24
Sell 6 3
Rating suspended 5 3
Buy 36 72
Hold 10 20
Sell 1 2
Rating suspended 3 6
Total 50 100
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EQUITIES
Matthias Rode +49 40 3282-2678
Head of Equities mrode@mmwarburg.com
RESEARCH
Michael Heider +49 40 309537-280 Hannes Müller +49 40 309537-255
Head of Research mheider@warburg-research.com Software, IT hmueller@warburg-research.com
Henner Rüschmeier +49 40 309537-270 Andreas Pläsier +49 40 309537-246
Head of Research hrueschmeier@warburg-research.com Banks, Financial Services aplaesier@warburg-research.com
Stefan Augustin +49 40 309537-168 Malte Schaumann +49 40 309537-170
Cap. Goods, Engineering saugustin@warburg-research.com Technology mschaumann@warburg-research.com
Jan Bauer +49 40 309537-155 Oliver Schwarz +49 40 309537-250
Renewables jbauer@warburg-research.com Chemicals, Agriculture oschwarz@warburg-research.com
Christian Cohrs +49 40 309537-175 Simon Stippig +49 40 309537-265
Industrials & Transportation ccohrs@warburg-research.com Real Estate, Telco sstippig@warburg-research.com
Dr. Christian Ehmann +49 40 309537-167 Marc-René Tonn +49 40 309537-259
BioTech, Life Science cehmann@warburg-research.com Automobiles, Car Suppliers mtonn@warburg-research.com
Felix Ellmann +49 40 309537-120 Robert-Jan van der Horst +49 40 309537-290
Software, IT fellmann@warburg-research.com Technology rvanderhorst@warburg-research.com
Jörg Philipp Frey +49 40 309537-258 Andreas Wolf +49 40 309537-140
Retail, Consumer Goods jfrey@warburg-research.com Software, IT awolf@warburg-research.com
Marius Fuhrberg +49 40 309537-185
Financial Services mfuhrberg@warburg-research.com
Fabio Hölscher +49 40 309537-240
Automobiles, Car Suppliers fhoelscher@warburg-research.com
Philipp Kaiser +49 40 309537-260
Real Estate, Construction pkaiser@warburg-research.com
Thilo Kleibauer +49 40 309537-257
Retail, Consumer Goods tkleibauer@warburg-research.com
MACRO RESEARCH
Carsten Klude +49 40 3282-2572 Dr. Christian Jasperneite +49 40 3282-2439
Macro Research cklude@mmwarburg.com Investment Strategy cjasperneite@mmwarburg.com
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