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LCOE Analysis Lazard

Lazard's 2025 LCOE+ Report highlights that renewable energy remains the most cost-competitive generation source in the U.S., driven by low costs and rapid deployment capabilities. The report also notes a decline in energy storage costs, influenced by market dynamics and technological advancements, while emphasizing the need for diverse energy sources to ensure reliability as renewable penetration increases. Additionally, the analysis indicates that evolving capacity accreditation methodologies by independent system operators may raise firming costs in the future.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
237 views48 pages

LCOE Analysis Lazard

Lazard's 2025 LCOE+ Report highlights that renewable energy remains the most cost-competitive generation source in the U.S., driven by low costs and rapid deployment capabilities. The report also notes a decline in energy storage costs, influenced by market dynamics and technological advancements, while emphasizing the need for diverse energy sources to ensure reliability as renewable penetration increases. Additionally, the analysis indicates that evolving capacity accreditation methodologies by independent system operators may raise firming costs in the future.

Uploaded by

Ankit Chatterjee
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
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LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY+

June 2025

WITH SUPPORT FROM


CONFIDENTIAL

Table of Contents

I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

II ENERGY GENERATION 5

A Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis—Version 18.0 6

III ENERGY STORAGE 16

A Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis—Version 10.0 17

IV ENERGY SYSTEM 25

A Cost of Firming Intermittency 26

V APPENDIX 31

A LCOE v18.0 32

B LCOS v10.0 41

Copyright 2025 Lazard


This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
CONFIDENTIAL

I Executive Summary

Copyright 2025 Lazard


I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary—Selected Key Findings from Lazard’s 2025 LCOE+


Lazard’s 2025 LCOE+ Report is organized around three key areas: Energy Generation, Energy Storage and the Energy System
Levelized Cost of Energy Version 18.0
• Renewables Remain Competitive: On an unsubsidized $/MWh basis, renewable energy remains the most cost-competitive form of generation. As such, renewable
energy will continue to play a key role in the buildout of new power generation in the U.S. This is particularly true in the current high power demand environment,
where renewables stand out as both the lowest-cost and quickest-to-deploy generation resource
Energy • Increasing Competitiveness of Existing Gas Generation: The gap between the LCOE of new wind and solar and the marginal cost of operating CCGTs has widened
Generation due to, among other things, persistent low gas prices, high energy demand and increasing renewable LCOEs
• Significant Shifts Expected: Unless otherwise indicated, Lazard’s LCOE is an LTM analysis focused on “today” and is not a forecasting tool. As such, the outcomes
included herein are representative of current development and construction timelines, which vary by technology. For example, while this year’s analysis shows only a
slight increase in the LCOE of CCGTs, turbine shortages, rising costs and long lead times are expected to drive steep LCOE increases for gas technologies in the near
term, as illustrated herein. Additionally, cost declines across Vogtle units 3 and 4 indicate nuclear is poised to benefit from scale and development efficiencies

Levelized Cost of Storage Version 10.0


• Storage Cost Decline: This year’s analysis shows notable declines in the LCOS of utility scale and C&I battery energy storage systems. Key drivers of such results
include both market dynamics (e.g., lower-than-expected EV demand and the resulting oversupply of cells) and technological advancements (e.g., increased cell
capacity and energy density)
Energy • Tariffs Increase Uncertainty: While current pricing is further benefiting from aggressive competition, widening LCOS spreads indicate increased volatility as
Storage uncertainty related to the ultimate tariff regime is shaping market dynamics in real time. For example, supply chain relocation to Southeast Asia and India is well
underway, and market participants are executing on forward procurement strategies to mitigate future pricing risk
• Market Expansion Is Underway: The LCOS value snapshots show increased returns reflecting the confluence of lower costs and higher prices in several regions.
Energy storage adoption is expanding beyond ISO/RTO-driven wholesale markets and into states where municipal procurement and data center growth is prevalent
(e.g., Arizona, Colorado, Florida). Lazard expects continued expansion as backup power and grid resilience become increasingly important in high-growth markets

Cost of Firming Intermittency


• Firming Value Rises as Renewable Penetration Increases: The cost of firming helps grid operators evaluate resources based on a region’s existing generation mix
and load characteristics, ensuring the right balance between reliability and affordability. The results of this year’s firming analysis show that as the penetration of low-
cost intermittent generation increases, the value of firm capacity rises
• ISO Approaches to System Analysis Are Evolving: Several independent system operators are adjusting their capacity accreditation methodologies in ways that are
Energy generally increasing firming costs. Both CAISO and PJM have reduced capacity accreditation values for highly correlated resources (e.g., solar and shorter-duration
System storage). Continued development of more sophisticated capacity accreditation frameworks, such as incorporation of seasonal adjustments or diversity benefits,
could have material impacts on future firming costs
• Diverse Generation Sources and Innovation Are Needed: The results of Lazard’s LCOE+ have consistently supported deploying a diverse mix of energy resources.
Despite the sustained unsubsidized cost competitiveness of renewable energy, resource planning metrics indicate diverse generation fleets will be required over the
long term to meet power needs, likely bolstered by now-emerging technologies such as long duration energy storage, geothermal, nuclear small modular reactors,
pumped storage hydropower and carbon capture and storage, among others

4
Copyright 2025 Lazard
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
CONFIDENTIAL

II Energy Generation

Copyright 2025 Lazard


CONFIDENTIAL

A Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy


Analysis—Version 18.0

Copyright 2025 Lazard


Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS—VERSION 18.0

Introduction
Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy analysis addresses the following topics:
• Comparative LCOE analysis for various generation technologies on a $/MWh basis, including sensitivities for U.S. federal tax subsidies, fuel prices, carbon
pricing and cost of capital

• Illustration of how the LCOE of onshore wind, utility-scale solar and hybrid projects compare to the marginal cost of selected conventional generation
technologies

• Historical LCOE comparison of various technologies

• Illustration of the historical LCOE declines for onshore wind and utility-scale solar

• Appendix materials, including:

− An overview of the methodology utilized to prepare Lazard’s LCOE analysis

− A summary of the assumptions utilized in Lazard’s LCOE analysis

− Deconstruction of the LCOE for various generation technologies by capital cost, fixed operations and maintenance (“O&M”) expense, variable O&M expense
and fuel cost

Other factors would also have a potentially significant effect on the results contained herein but have not been examined in the scope of this current analysis.
These additional factors, among others, may include: recent tariff-related cost impacts; implementation and interpretation of the full scope of the IRA; economic
policy, transmission queue reform, network upgrades and other transmission matters, congestion, curtailment or other integration-related costs; permitting or
other development costs, unless otherwise noted; and costs of complying with various environmental regulations (e.g., carbon emissions offsets or emissions
control systems). This analysis is intended to represent a snapshot in time and utilizes a wide, but not exhaustive, sample set of Industry data. As such, we
recognize and acknowledge the likelihood of results outside of our ranges. Therefore, this analysis is not a forecasting tool and should not be used as such given
the complexities of our evolving Industry, grid and resource needs. Except as illustratively sensitized herein, this analysis does not consider the intermittent nature
of selected renewables energy technologies or the related grid impacts of incremental renewable energy deployment. This analysis also does not address
potential social and environmental externalities including, for example, the social costs and rate consequences for those who cannot afford distributed
generation solutions as well as the long-term residual and societal consequences of various conventional generation technologies that are difficult to measure
(e.g., airborne pollutants, greenhouse gases, etc.).
7
Copyright 2025 Lazard
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS—VERSION 18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Version 18.0


Selected renewable energy generation technologies remain cost-competitive with conventional generation technologies under certain
circumstances
Solar PV—Community & C&I $81 $217

Solar PV—Utility $38 $78

Solar PV + Storage—Utility 1 $50 $131


Renewable
Geothermal 2 $66 $109
Generation
Wind—Onshore $37 $86

Wind + Storage—Onshore 1 $44 $123

Wind—Offshore $70 $924 $157

Gas Peaking $1085 $149 $251

U.S. Nuclear 2 $345 $141 $1696 $220 $2286


Conventional
Generation3 Coal 2 $71 $735 $173

Gas Combined Cycle $315 $48 $1077 $109

$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275
Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh)
Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
Note: Here and throughout this analysis, unless otherwise indicated, the analysis assumes 60% debt at an 8% interest rate and 40% equity at a 12% cost. See page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to Cost of Capital” for
cost of capital sensitivities.
1 Reflects the LCOE for a system composed of standalone generation plus standalone storage less the combined system-level synergies (assumed to be 10% of storage capital costs and 25% of inverter costs). The synergies capture
potential cost reductions or efficiency gains from integrating generation and storage, such as shared interconnection infrastructure, improved energy dispatch, enhanced capacity utilization and operational efficiencies.
2 Given the limited public and/or observable data available for new-build geothermal, coal and nuclear projects, the LCOE presented herein reflects Lazard’s LCOE v14.0 results adjusted for inflation and, for nuclear, are based on then-
estimated costs of the Vogtle Plant. Coal LCOE does not include cost of transportation and storage.
3 The fuel cost assumptions for Lazard’s LCOE analysis of gas-fired generation, coal-fired generation and nuclear generation resources are $3.45/MMBTU, $1.47/MMBTU and $0.85/MMBTU, respectively, for year-over-year comparison
purposes. See page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to Fuel Prices” for fuel price sensitivities.
4 Represents the illustrative midpoint LCOE for Dominion’s Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (“CVOW”) project, based on the publicly disclosed capital cost of ~$8.7 billion (excluding onshore transmission costs) and offshore wind estimates
from Lazard. Dominion’s projected LCOE for CVOW as of February 2025 is $91/MWh in 2027 dollars, with an expected COD in 4Q 2026.
5 Reflects the average of the high and low LCOE marginal cost of operating fully depreciated gas peaking, gas combined cycle, coal and nuclear facilities, inclusive of decommissioning costs for nuclear facilities. Analysis assumes that the
salvage value for a decommissioned gas or coal asset is equivalent to its decommissioning and site restoration costs. Inputs are derived from a benchmark of operating gas, coal and nuclear assets across the U.S. Capacity factors, fuel,
variable and fixed operating expenses are based on upper- and lower-quartile estimates derived from Lazard’s research. See page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—New Build Renewable Generation vs. Marginal Cost of
Conventional Generation” for additional details.
6 Represents illustrative LCOE values for Vogtle nuclear plant’s units 3 and 4. The analysis is based on publicly available estimates and suggestions from selected industry experts, indicating a cost “learning curve” of ~30% between Vogtle
units 3 and 4. Analysis assumes total operating capacity of ~2.2 GW, total capital cost of ~$32.3 billion, capacity factor of ~97%, operating life of 70 years and other operating parameters estimated by Lazard’s LCOE v14.0 results, adjusted
for inflation. 8
Copyright 2025 Lazard 7 Illustrative high case reflects elevated capital costs ($2,400/kW – $2,600/kW) based on recently observed market quotes for CCGT projects in early stages of development (post-2028 COD).
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS—VERSION 18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to U.S. Federal Tax Subsidies


The Investment Tax Credit (“ITC”), Production Tax Credit (“PTC”) and Energy Community adder, among other provisions in the IRA, are
important components of the LCOE for renewable energy technologies

Solar PV—Community & C&I $81 $217

Solar PV—Community & C&I (ITC) $51 $178

Solar PV—Utility $38 $78

Solar PV—Utility (ITC) $24 $57

Solar PV—Utility (PTC) $20 $45

Solar PV + Storage—Utility $50 $131

Solar PV + Storage—Utility (ITC) $33 $111


Renewable Geothermal $66 $109
Generation
Geothermal (ITC) $44 $93

Wind—Onshore $37 $86

Wind—Onshore (PTC) $15 $75

Wind + Storage—Onshore $44 $123

Wind + Storage—Onshore (ITC) $21 $103

Wind—Offshore $70 $157

Wind—Offshore (PTC) $52 $141

$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 $300
Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh)

LCOE Subsidized (incl. Energy Community) 1 Subsidized (excl. Energy Community) 2


Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, this analysis does not include other state or federal subsidies (e.g., domestic content adder, etc.). The IRA is a comprehensive and evolving piece of legislation that is still being implemented and remains subject
to interpretation—important elements of the IRA are not included in our analysis and could impact outcomes. Lazard’s LCOE analysis assumes, for year-over-year reference purposes, 60% debt at an 8% interest rate and 40% equity at a
12% cost (together implying an after-tax IRR/WACC of 7.7%).
1 This sensitivity analysis assumes that projects qualify for the full ITC/PTC, have a capital structure that includes sponsor equity, debt and tax equity and assumes the equity owner has taxable income to monetize the tax credits and also
includes an Energy Community adder of 10% for ITC projects and $3/MWh for PTC projects. 9
Copyright 2025 Lazard 2 This sensitivity analysis assumes that projects qualify for the full ITC/PTC, have a capital structure that includes sponsor equity, debt and tax equity and assumes the equity owner has taxable income to monetize the tax credits.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS—VERSION 18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to Fuel Prices


Variations in fuel prices can materially impact the LCOE of conventional generation technologies

Solar PV—Community & C&I $81 $217

Solar PV—Utility $38 $78

Solar PV + Storage—Utility $50 $131

Renewable
Geothermal $66 $109
Generation

Wind—Onshore $37 $86

Wind + Storage—Onshore $44 $123

Wind—Offshore $70 $157

Gas Peaking 1 $138 $262

U.S. Nuclear 2 $138 $222


Conventional
Generation
Coal 3 $67 $179

Gas Combined Cycle 1 $41 $116

$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275
Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh)

LCOE +/- 25% Fuel Price Adjustment

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.


Note: Unless otherwise noted, the assumptions used in this sensitivity correspond to those used in the LCOE analysis as presented on the page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Version 18.0”.
1 Assumes a fuel cost range for gas-fired generation resources of $2.59/MMBTU – $4.31/MMBTU (representing a sensitivity range of ± 25% of the $3.45/MMBTU used in the LCOE).
2 Assumes a fuel cost range for nuclear generation resources of $0.64/MMBTU – $1.06/MMBTU (representing a sensitivity range of ± 25% of the $0.85/MMBTU used in the LCOE).
3 Assumes a fuel cost range for coal-fired generation resources of $1.10/MMBTU – $1.84/MMBTU (representing a sensitivity range of ± 25% of the $1.47/MMBTU used in the LCOE). 10
Copyright 2025 Lazard
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS—VERSION 18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to Carbon Pricing


Carbon pricing is one avenue for policymakers to address carbon emissions; a carbon price range of $40 – $60/Ton1 of carbon would
increase the LCOE for certain conventional generation technologies, as indicated below

Solar PV—Community & C&I $81 $217

Solar PV—Utility $38 $78

Solar PV + Storage—Utility $50 $131


Renewable
Geothermal $66 $109
Generation
Wind—Onshore $37 $86

Wind + Storage—Onshore $44 $123

Wind—Offshore $70 $157

Gas Peaking $149 $251

Gas Peaking w/ Carbon Pricing 2 $173 $291

U.S. Nuclear $141 $220


Conventional Coal $71 $173
Generation
Coal w/ Carbon Pricing 2 $108 $249

Gas Combined Cycle $48 $109

Gas Combined Cycle w/ Carbon Pricing 2 $63 $132

$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 $300

Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh)

LCOE LCOE with Carbon Pricing


Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, the assumptions used in this sensitivity correspond to those used in the LCOE analysis as presented on the page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Version 18.0”. LCOE with Carbon Pricing is limited to
carbon emissions directly related to generation and does not include the impacts of carbon pricing on embodied carbon.
1 The current administration no longer maintains an estimate of the monetized impacts of greenhouse gas emissions. Previous administrations estimated the social cost of carbon to range from $5/Ton (first Trump Administration) to over
$200/Ton (Biden Administration).
2 The low and high ranges reflect the LCOE of selected conventional generation technologies including an illustrative carbon price of $40/Ton and $60/Ton, respectively. 11
Copyright 2025 Lazard
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS—VERSION 18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to Cost of Capital1


A key consideration in determining the LCOE for utility-scale generation technologies is the cost, and availability, of capital1. In practice,
this dynamic is particularly significant because the cost of capital for each asset is related to its specific operational characteristics and
the resulting risk/return profile
Average LCOE2
LCOE
($/MWh) LCOE v18.0
$250 $242
U.S. Nuclear3
$238
225 $218
Gas Peaking
$200
200 $210
$183 Coal

175 $167
$180 Wind—Offshore
$153
$154 $153
150
$131 $137 Geothermal

125 $122 $135


$115 Gas Combined
$109 $123 Cycle
$104
$97 $113
100 $89 $104 $95
$88 $89 Wind—Onshore
$96 $81 $84
$88 $75 $78 $73
75 $69 $67 Solar PV—
$61
$69 $73 $71 Utility
$65 $52 $56 $64
50 $48 $58
$53
$48
$43
25
After-Tax IRR/WACC 4.2% 5.4% 6.5% 7.7% 8.8% 10.0%
Cost of Equity 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
Cost of Debt 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.


Note: Analysis assumes 60% debt and 40% equity. Unless otherwise noted, the assumptions used in this sensitivity correspond to those used on the page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Version 18.0”.
1 Cost of capital as used herein indicates the cost of capital applicable to the asset/plant and not the cost of capital of a particular investor/owner.
2 Reflects the average of the high and low LCOE for each respective cost of capital assumption. 12
Copyright 2025 Lazard 3 Given the limited public and/or observable data available for new-build nuclear projects, the LCOE presented herein reflects Lazard’s LCOE v14.0 results adjusted for inflation and are based on then-estimated costs of the Vogtle Plant.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS—VERSION 18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—New Build Renewable Generation vs. Marginal


Cost of Conventional Generation
Certain renewable energy generation technologies have an LCOE that is competitive with the marginal cost of selected conventional
generation technologies—notably, as incremental, intermittent renewable energy capacity is deployed and baseload gas-fired generation
utilization rates increase, this gap closes, particularly in low gas pricing and high energy demand environments

Solar PV—Utility $38 $78

Solar PV—Utility (ITC)1 $24 $57

1
Solar PV—Utility (PTC) $20 $45

Solar PV + Storage—Utility $50 $131


Levelized Cost of
New Build
Solar PV + Storage—Utility (ITC)1 $33 $111
Renewable
Generation Wind—Onshore $37 $86

1
Wind—Onshore (PTC) $15 $75

Wind + Storage—Onshore $44 $123

1
Wind + Storage—Onshore (ITC) $21 $103

Gas Peaking $47 $170

Marginal Cost of U.S. Nuclear $30 $38


Conventional
Generation2 Coal $31 $114

Gas Combined Cycle $24 $39

$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200


Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh)
LCOE Subsidized (incl. Energy Community) Subsidized (excl. Energy Community) Marginal Cost2
Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, the assumptions used in this sensitivity correspond to those used on page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Version 18.0”.
1 See page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to U.S. Federal Tax Subsidies” for additional details.
2 Reflects the marginal cost of operating fully depreciated gas, coal and nuclear facilities, inclusive of decommissioning costs for nuclear facilities. Analysis assumes that the salvage value for a decommissioned gas or coal asset is 13
equivalent to its decommissioning and site restoration costs. Inputs are derived from a benchmark of operating gas, coal and nuclear assets across the U.S. Capacity factors, fuel, variable and fixed O&M are based on upper- and lower-
Copyright 2025 Lazard
quartile estimates derived from Lazard’s research.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS—VERSION 18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Historical LCOE Comparison


Lazard’s LCOE analysis indicates significant historical cost declines for utility-scale renewable energy generation technologies, which has
begun to level out and even slightly increase in recent years
Selected Historical Average LCOE Values1
LCOE
($/MWh)
$380
$359

320
Since v3.0 Since v17.0
$275 Gas Peaking Gas Peaking
(27%) 18%
260 $248
U.S. Nuclear2 U.S. Nuclear2
$243 $227 47% (1%)
$216
$205 $205 Coal Coal
$200 10% 3%
200 $192 $191
$183 $179 $180 $182
$175 $175 $173 Geothermal Geothermal
$180 16% 3%
$157 $155 $169
$148 $151 $163 $167 $168
Gas Combined Gas Combined
140 $135
$124 $125 Cycle Cycle
$118 $122
$123 $116 $116 $117 $117 $112 $117 (5%) 3%
$111 $111 $116 $109 $108
$102 $105 $112 $108 $102 $102 $102
$111 $107 $104 $104 $109 Wind— Wind—
$83 $96 $95 $96 $98 $100 $98 $80 $82 $85 $88 Onshore Onshore
$83 $79 $97 $91 $91 $75
80 $75 $74 (55%) 23%
$82 $65 $63 $70 $78
$76 $74 $60 $58 $59 $60 $76
$71 $72 $70 $64 $56 $60 $61 Solar PV— Solar PV—
$55 $50 $61
$59 $55 $43 $41 $40 $58 Utility Utility
$47 $38 $50 $50
$45 $42 (84%) (4%)
$40 $37 $36
20 //
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2024 2025
LCOE
3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0
Version

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.


1
2
Reflects the average of the high and low LCOE for each respective technology in each respective year. Percentages represent the total change in the average LCOE since Lazard’s LCOE v3.0 and LCOE v17.0, respectively.
Given the limited public and/or observable data available for new-build nuclear projects, the LCOE presented herein reflects Lazard’s LCOE v14.0 results adjusted for inflation and are based on then-estimated costs of the Vogtle Plant.
14
Copyright 2025 Lazard
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS—VERSION 18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Historical Renewable Energy LCOE


This year’s analysis shows a divergence in trends between wind and solar with solar costs declining slightly and wind costs increasing,
likely reflecting the difference in supply chain conditions across each technology

Wind—Onshore Solar PV—Utility

Wind—Onshore 2009 – 2025 Percentage Decrease/CAGR: (56%)1/(5%)2 Solar PV—Utility 2009 – 2025 Percentage Decrease/CAGR: (84%)1/(11%)2
LCOE LCOE
($/MWh) ($/MWh)
Wind—Onshore 2020 – 2025 Increase/CAGR: 49%1/8%2 Solar PV—Utility 2020 – 2025 Percentage Increase/CAGR: 54%1/9%2

$250 $450
$394

375
200

$169
300 $323 $270
$148
150

225
$226
$166
100 $92 $95 $95 $86 $149
$101 $99 $81 $77 $75 $73 150
$62 $60 $148 $104
$56 $54 $96 $92
$54 $50 $86 $78
50 $70
$61 $53
$50 $48 75 $101
$91 $46 $44 $42 $41
$45
$37 $37 $72
$32 $32
$30 $29 $28 $26 $26 $24 $27 $58
$49 $46
$40 $36 $31 $30 $24 $29 $38
0 // 0 //
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2024 2025 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2024 2025
LCOE LCOE
3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0
Version Version

Wind—Onshore LCOE Range Wind—Onshore LCOE Average Solar PV—Utility LCOE Range Solar PV—Utility LCOE Average

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.


1
2
Reflects the average percentage increase/(decrease) of the high end and low end of the LCOE range.
Reflects the average compounded annual growth rate of the high end and low end of the LCOE range.
15
Copyright 2025 Lazard
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
CONFIDENTIAL

III Energy Storage

Copyright 2025 Lazard


CONFIDENTIAL

A Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage


Analysis—Version 10.0

Copyright 2025 Lazard


Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSIS—VERSION 10.0

Introduction
Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage analysis addresses the following topics:
• LCOS Analysis:
− Comparative LCOS analysis for various energy storage systems on a $/MWh basis
− Comparative LCOS analysis for various energy storage systems on a $/kW-year basis

• Storage Value Snapshot Case Studies:

− Overview of potential revenue applications for various energy storage systems


− Overview of the Storage Value Snapshot Case Studies analysis and identification of selected geographies for each use case analyzed
− Results from the Storage Value Snapshot Case Studies analysis
• Appendix Materials, including:
− An overview of the use cases and operational parameters of selected energy storage systems for each use case analyzed
− An overview of the methodology utilized to prepare Lazard’s LCOS analysis
− A summary of the assumptions utilized in Lazard’s LCOS analysis
− Deconstruction of the LCOS for various generation technologies by capital cost, fixed operations and maintenance (“O&M”) expense and charging cost

Other factors would also have a potentially significant effect on the results contained herein but have not been examined in the scope of this current analysis.
These additional factors, among others, may include: recent tariff-related cost impacts; implementation and interpretation of the full scope of the IRA;
economic policy, transmission queue reform, network upgrades and other transmission matters; congestion, curtailment or other integration-related costs;
permitting or other development costs, unless otherwise noted; and costs of complying with various regulations (e.g., federal import tariffs or labor
requirements). This analysis also does not address potential social and environmental externalities as well as the long-term residual and societal
consequences of various energy storage system technologies that are difficult to measure (e.g., resource extraction, end-of-life disposal, lithium-ion-related
safety hazards, etc.). This analysis is intended to represent a snapshot in time and utilizes a wide, but not exhaustive, sample set of Industry data. As such, we
recognize and acknowledge the likelihood of results outside of our ranges. Therefore, this analysis is not a forecasting tool and should not be used as such given
the complexities of our evolving Industry, grid and resource needs.

18
Copyright 2025 Lazard
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSIS—VERSION 10.0

Levelized Cost of Storage Comparison—Version 10.0 ($/MWh)


Lazard’s LCOS analysis evaluates standalone energy storage systems on a levelized basis to derive cost metrics across energy storage
use cases and configurations1

Utility-Scale Standalone
$129 $277
(100 MW, 2-Hour)

Utility-Scale Standalone
$95 $209
(100 MW, 2-Hour) (ITC)
In-Front-of-the-
Meter Storage
Utility-Scale Standalone
$115 $254
(100 MW, 4-Hour)

Utility-Scale Standalone
$83 $192
(100 MW, 4-Hour) (ITC)

C&I Standalone
$319 $506
(1 MW, 2-Hour)

C&I Standalone
$249 $396
(1 MW, 2-Hour) (ITC)
Behind-the-Meter
Storage
Residential Standalone
$547 $860
(0.006 MW, 4-Hour)

Residential Standalone
$385 $632
(0.006 MW, 4-Hour) (ITC)

$0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000


Levelized Cost of Storage ($/MWh)

LCOS Subsidized (incl. Energy Community) 2 Subsidized (excl. Energy Community) 3


Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
Note: Here and throughout this section, unless otherwise indicated, the analysis assumes 20% debt at an 8% interest rate and 80% equity at a 12% cost, which is a different capital structure than Lazard’s LCOE analysis. Capital costs include
the storage module, balance of system and power conversion equipment, collectively referred to as the energy storage system, equipment (where applicable) and EPC costs. Augmentation costs are not included in capital costs in this
analysis and vary across use cases due to usage profiles and lifespans. Charging costs are assessed at the weighted average hourly pricing (wholesale energy prices) across an optimized annual charging profile of the asset. See Appendix B
for charging cost assumptions and additional details. The projects are assumed to use a 5-year MACRS depreciation schedule.
1 See Appendix B for a detailed overview of the use cases and operational parameters analyzed in the LCOS.
2 This sensitivity analysis assumes that projects qualify for the full ITC and have a capital structure that includes sponsor equity, debt and tax equity and also includes a 10% Energy Community adder. 19
Copyright 2025 Lazard 3 This sensitivity analysis assumes that projects qualify for the full ITC and have a capital structure that includes sponsor equity, debt and tax equity.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSIS—VERSION 10.0

Levelized Cost of Storage Comparison—Version 10.0 ($/kW-year)


Lazard’s LCOS analysis evaluates standalone energy storage systems on a levelized basis to derive cost metrics across energy storage
use cases and configurations1

Utility-Scale Standalone
$81 $174
(100 MW, 2-Hour)

Utility-Scale Standalone
$60 $132
(100 MW, 2-Hour) (ITC)
In-Front-of-the-
Meter Storage
Utility-Scale Standalone
$145 $319
(100 MW, 4-Hour)

Utility-Scale Standalone
$105 $241
(100 MW, 4-Hour) (ITC)

C&I Standalone
$201 $319
(1 MW, 2-Hour)

C&I Standalone
$157 $250
(1 MW, 2-Hour) (ITC)
Behind-the-Meter
Storage
Residential Standalone
$719 $1,129
(0.006 MW, 4-Hour)

Residential Standalone
$505 $830
(0.006 MW, 4-Hour) (ITC)

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200


Levelized Cost of Storage ($/kW-year)
3
LCOS Subsidized (incl. Energy Community) 2 Subsidized (excl. Energy Community)

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.


1 See Appendix B for a detailed overview of the use cases and operation parameters analyzed in the LCOS.
2
3
This sensitivity analysis assumes that projects qualify for the full ITC and have a capital structure that includes sponsor equity, debt and tax equity and also includes a 10% Energy Community adder.
This sensitivity analysis assumes that projects qualify for the full ITC and have a capital structure that includes sponsor equity, debt and tax equity.
20
Copyright 2025 Lazard
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSIS—VERSION 10.0

Levelized Cost of Storage Comparison—Historical LCOS Comparison


This year’s analysis shows notable declines in the LCOS of utility scale and C&I battery energy storage systems. Key drivers include both
market dynamics—slower-than-expected EV demand and the resulting oversupply of cells—and technological advancements, including
increased cell capacity and energy density
Utility-Scale Standalone (100 MW, 4-Hour) C&I Standalone (1 MW, 2-Hour)
Utility-Scale Standalone (100 MW, 4-Hour) 2020 – 2025 Decrease/CAGR: (5%)1/(1%)2 C&I Standalone (1 MW, 2-Hour) 2020 – 2025 Percentage Decrease/CAGR: (20%)1/(4%)2
LCOS LCOS
($/MWh) ($/MWh)

$400 $800

700
$643
$296
$590
300 600
$257 $254 $518
$245 $506
$232 500
$448

200 400 $432 $442


$200 $407
$373
$170 300
$319
$132 $131
100 $115
200

100

0 // 0 //
2020 2021 2023 2024 2025 2020 2021 2023 2024 2025
LCOS LCOS
6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
Version Version
Utility-Scale Standalone Utility-Scale Standalone C&I Standalone C&I Standalone
(100 MW, 4-Hour) (100 MW, 4-Hour) (1 MW, 2-Hour) (1 MW, 2-Hour)
LCOS Range LCOS Average LCOS Range LCOS Average
Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
Note: The methodology for the Levelized Cost of Storage has evolved between v1.0 and v10.0 given technological advances and data availability. Page presents the most comparable Utility-Scale and C&I Standalone storage technologies

1
included in the Levelized Cost of Storage report for that year.
Reflects the average percentage increase/(decrease) of the high end and low end of the LCOS range. 21
Copyright 2025 Lazard 2 Reflects the average compounded annual growth rate of the high end and low end of the LCOS range.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSIS—VERSION 10.0

Storage Value Snapshot Case Studies—Revenue Potential for Selected Use Cases
The numerous potential sources of revenue available to energy storage systems reflect the benefits provided to customers and the grid
• The scope of revenue sources is limited to those captured by existing or soon-to-be commissioned projects—revenue sources that are not clearly identifiable
or without publicly available data have not been analyzed
Use Cases1
Commercial & Commercial &
Utility-Scale Utility-Scale Utility-Scale
Industrial Industrial
Description Standalone PV + Storage Wind + Storage
Standalone PV + Storage
Demand
• Manages high wholesale price or emergency conditions on the grid by
Response—
Wholesale
calling on users to reduce or shift electricity demand  
Energy • Storage of inexpensive electricity to sell later at higher prices (only
Arbitrage evaluated in the context of a wholesale market)   
Wholesale

Frequency • Provides immediate (4-second) power to maintain generation-load balance


Regulation and prevent frequency fluctuations   

Resource Adequacy • Provides capacity to meet generation requirements at peak load   


• Maintains electricity output during unexpected contingency events (e.g.,
Spinning/Non-
Spinning Reserves
outages) immediately (spinning reserve) or within a short period of time
(non-spinning reserve)
  
Demand • Manages high wholesale price or emergency conditions on the grid by
Utility

Response—Utility calling on users to reduce or shift electricity demand  


Bill • Allows reduction of demand charge using battery discharge and the daily
Management storage of electricity for use when time of use rates are highest  
Customer

• Payments provided to residential and commercial customers to encourage the


Incentives
acquisition and installation of energy storage systems  
Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information. 22
Copyright 2025 Lazard 1 Represents the universe of potential revenue streams available to the various use cases. Does not represent the use cases analyzed in the Storage Value Snapshot Case Studies.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSIS—VERSION 10.0

Storage Value Snapshot Case Studies—Overview


Lazard’s Storage Value Snapshots analyze the financial viability of illustrative energy storage systems designed for selected use cases and
geographies
Storage
Storage Generation Duration
Location Description (MW) (MW) (hours) Revenue Streams
In-Front-of-the-Meter Storage

Utility-Scale CAISO1
1 Large-scale energy storage system 100 – 4
Standalone (SP-15)
• Energy Arbitrage

Utility-Scale ERCOT2 Energy storage system designed to be paired • Frequency Regulation


2 50 100 4
PV + Storage (South Texas) with large solar PV facilities • Resource Adequacy

• Spinning/Non-Spinning Reserves
3 Utility-Scale ERCOT2 Energy storage system designed to be paired
50 100 4
Wind + Storage (South Texas) with large wind generation facilities

Commercial & Energy storage system designed for behind-


PG&E3 • Demand Response—Utility
Behind-the-Meter Storage

4 Industrial the-meter peak shaving and demand charge 1 – 2


(California)
Standalone reduction for C&I energy users • Bill Management

• Incentives

• Tariff Settlement, Demand


Commercial & Energy storage system designed for behind- Response Participation, Avoided
5 PG&E3
Industrial the-meter peak shaving and demand charge 0.5 1 4 Costs to Commercial Customer
(California)
PV + Storage reduction services for C&I energy users and Local Capacity Resource
Programs

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.


Note: Actual project returns may vary due to differences in location-specific costs, revenue streams and owner/developer risk preferences.
1 Refers to the California Independent System Operator.
2 Refers to the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. 23
Copyright 2025 Lazard 3 Refers to the Pacific Gas & Electric Company.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSIS—VERSION 10.0

Storage Value Snapshot Case Studies—Results


Project economics evaluated in the Storage Value Snapshot Case Studies continue to evolve year-over-year as costs change and the
value of revenue streams adjust to reflect underlying market conditions, utility rate structures and policy developments. Notably, this year
capacity/resource adequacy payments nearly doubled which, combined with LCOS declines, significantly increased project returns

In-Front-of-the-Meter Storage Behind-the-Meter Storage


$/MWh $/MWh
Subsidized IRR Subsidized IRR
$500 $500
1 2 3 4 5
450 450
47.5% 20.2% 23.6% 34.1% 28.9%
400 400

350 350

300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0
Utility-Scale Utility-Scale Utility-Scale C&I C&I
Standalone PV + Storage Wind + Storage Standalone PV + Storage
(CAISO) (ERCOT) (ERCOT) (PG&E) (PG&E)
Energy Arbitrage 1 Frequency Regulation Spinning/Non-Spinning Reserves Capacity/Resource Adequacy Demand Response—Utility Bill Management Local Incentive Payments

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.


Note: Levelized costs presented for each Value Snapshot reflect local market and operating conditions (including installed costs, market prices, charging costs and incentives) and are different in certain cases from the LCOS results for the
equivalent use case on the page titled “Levelized Cost of Storage Comparison—Version 10.0 ($/MWh)”, which are more broadly representative of U.S. storage market conditions as opposed to location-specific conditions. Levelized
revenues in all cases are gross revenues (not including charging costs). Subsidized levelized cost for each Value Snapshot reflects: (1) average cost structure for storage, solar and wind capital costs, (2) charging costs based on local
wholesale prices or utility tariff rates and (3) all applicable state and federal tax incentives, including 30% federal ITC for solar and/or storage and $27.50/MWh federal PTC for wind. Value Snapshots do not include cash payments from state
or utility incentive programs. Revenues for Value Snapshots (1) – (3) are based on hourly wholesale prices from the 365 days prior to December 31, 2024. Revenues for Value Snapshots (4) – (5) are based on the most recent tariffs, programs
and incentives available as of February 1, 2025. 24
Copyright 2025 Lazard 1 In previous versions of this analysis, Energy Arbitrage was referred to as Wholesale Energy Sales.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
CONFIDENTIAL

IV Energy System

Copyright 2025 Lazard


CONFIDENTIAL

A Cost of Firming Intermittency

Copyright 2025 Lazard


Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A COST OF FIRMING INTERMITTENCY

Market Overview—Current Generation Mix


The current generation mix across the U.S. varies significantly by market—resource availability, operational constraints, load profiles,
transmission infrastructure, seasonal weather patterns and regulatory constructs, among other factors, are key drivers of such variation
2024 Generation Mix by Region

CAISO Northwest Nuclear, 3% MISO Hydro, 2% NYISO


Other (incl. Petroleum), 3%
Nuclear, 10% Other (incl. Petroleum), 3% Solar, 2% Other (incl. Petroleum), 0% Wind, 5%
Solar, 6%
Nuclear, 14% Natural
Wind, 10% Hydro, 30% Nuclear, 20%
Natural Gas, 39%
Gas, 45% Wind, 16%
Natural
Hydro, 12% Wind, 15% Gas, 52%
Natural Hydro,
Solar, 23% Coal, 19% Gas, 24% Coal, 26% 21%

Southwest Hydro, 3% ISO-NE Wind, 3% Solar, 1%


Other (incl. Petroleum), <1% Other (incl. Petroleum), 5% Coal, <1%
Wind, 8%
Hydro, 7%
Solar, 9% Natural
Gas, 43%
Coal, 13% Natural
Nuclear,
Gas, 57%
25%
Nuclear, 24%

SPP ERCOT Other (incl. Petroleum), <1% Southeast PJM Hydro, 2%


Hydro, 3%Solar, <1% Hydro, 3% Other (incl. Petroleum), 1%
Nuclear, 5%
Other (incl. Petroleum), <1% Nuclear, 8% Hydro, <1% Other (incl. Petroleum), 2% Solar, 2%
Solar, 4% Wind, 4%
Solar, 10% Coal, 16%
Wind, 38% Coal, 14% Natural
Natural
Coal, 25% Gas, 44%
Gas, 44% Natural
Coal, 13% Gas, 50%

Wind, Nuclear, Nuclear,


Natural Gas, 29% 24% 25% 32%

Source: Publicly available information. 27


Copyright 2025 Lazard Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A COST OF FIRMING INTERMITTENCY

Market Overview—Current Firming Cost Frameworks


Many grid operators and utilities use effective load-carrying capability (“ELCC”) to measure the reliability of new power generation
resources to contribute to the electricity grid at key periods of demand, particularly intermittent ones like wind and solar. Combined with
the net cost of new entry (“Net CONE”)1, as determined by the grid operator, ELCC helps to guide decisions on resource planning,
capacity adequacy and system reliability. Balancing authorities (“BA”s) such as MISO, CAISO, SPP, PJM and ERCOT have adopted ELCC
accreditation frameworks to ensure a reliable and efficient grid
• ELCC measures the performance of a resource at times of greatest “capacity need” for the system, where capacity need is a function of electricity demand
patterns and the generation mix in each region—in general, the higher the renewable resource penetration, the lower the ELCC accreditation for each
additional renewable resource
BA-Specified Net CONE1
“Firming” Source ELCC Values2 ($/kW-month) Selected Market Commentary
• In March 2024, MISO adopted the FERC Reliability Availability and Need (“RAN”) seasonal capacity
construct for wind and solar resources
Natural Gas Solar: 39%
MISO $10.03 • Seasonal wind accredited capacity values are 18.1% for summer, 18.6% for fall, 53.1% for winter and
Peaker Wind: 26% 18.0% for spring
• Solar capacity values are 50% for all seasons except winter, which is 5%

Solar: 7% • Increasing levels of solar penetration in CAISO have shifted peak demand later in the day, reducing the
4-Hour Lithium- ELCC value for solar
CAISO PV + Storage3: 41% $18.92 • CAISO significantly reduced ELCC values for 4-hour battery storage systems, driven by significant growth
Ion Battery
Wind: 12% in 4-hour storage capacity
• SPP published seasonal accreditation values based on 2024, assigning separate values to resources for
Natural Gas Solar: 51% summer and winter seasons
SPP $8.38 • Summer wind and solar contributions are 15.2% and 25.5%, respectively, whereas winter values shift to
Peaker Wind: 20%
39.1% for wind and 62.2% for solar
Solar: 12% • PJM adopted a new, marginal ELCC methodology to begin in the 2025/2026 delivery year that reduces the
Natural Gas
PJM PV + Storage3: 33% $10.29 reliability value of highly correlated resources, such as solar and short-duration storage4
Peaker • The update is expected to better capture expected resource performance during system peak
Wind: 38%
• ERCOT maintains notably high ELCC values despite having the highest renewable penetration by
Natural Gas Solar: 38%
ERCOT $9.92 capacity of the U.S. regulatory markets
Peaker Wind: 25% • ERCOT updates its capacity scheme every three years; the most recent publication was December 2022
Source: Publicly available information.
1 Net “CONE” is defined as capital and operating costs less expected market revenues for a new, firm resource (e.g., gas peaker or battery storage). Net CONE is established by the respective balancing authority.
2 ELCC values are calculated by the respective balancing authority. ELCC is an indicator of the incremental reliability contribution of a given resource to the electricity grid based on its contribution to meeting peak electricity demand. For
example, a 1 MW wind resource with a 15% ELCC provides 0.15 MW of capacity contribution and would need to be supplemented by 0.85 MW of additional firm capacity to represent the addition of 1 MW of firm system capacity. Where
seasonal accreditation values exist, values have been annualized.
3 For PV + Storage cases, the effective ELCC value is represented. CAISO and PJM assess ELCC values separately for the PV and storage components of a system. Storage ELCC value is provided only for the capacity that can be charged
directly by the accompanying resource up to the energy required for a 4-hour discharge during peak load. Any capacity available in excess of the 4-hour maximum discharge is attributed to the system at the solar ELCC. ELCC values for
28
Copyright 2025 Lazard
storage range from 55% to 75% for PJM and CAISO, respectively.
4 This year’s analysis does not reflect this future methodology. This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A COST OF FIRMING INTERMITTENCY

Cost of Firming Intermittency—Methodology


Lazard’s Cost of Firming Intermittency analysis builds on the LCOE results by evaluating system-level costs associated with
supplementing intermittent renewable energy on the grid with firm capacity to ensure reliable electricity delivery during peak demand
periods. The analysis utilizes ELCC and Net CONE values assessed and published by grid operators for each regional market to determine
these costs

• The firm capacity value of a new resource is calculated as Nameplate Capacity × ELCC %, where:

− Nameplate Capacity of a resource refers to its maximum potential energy output, and

− ELCC measures the performance of a resource at times of greatest “capacity need” for the system, where capacity need is a function of
electricity demand patterns and the generation mix in each region

• Over time, increased renewable penetration or changes in demand patterns can shift the timing of the capacity need, impacting ELCC

• The remaining non-firm capacity (Nameplate Capacity × (1 – (ELCC %))) is “firmed” at the Net CONE, a $/kW-month figure which is intended to
reflect capital and operating costs less expected market revenues for a new, firm resource (e.g., gas peaker or battery storage)

− Net CONE is assessed and published by grid operators for each regional market

In the following analysis, the Levelized Firming Cost is defined as the additional capacity payment, priced at Net CONE, required to bring
the ELCC of the combined system (intermittent and firming resource) to 100%. The LCOE plus Levelized Firming Cost varies between
ISOs, due to (1) the standalone LCOE in the region based on regional capacity factor for wind or solar, (2) the ELCC value of the standalone
renewable resource and (3) the region’s Net CONE

Nameplate Capacity (kW) × (1 – ELCC (%)) × Net CONE ($/kW-month) × 12 Months Levelized Firming Cost
Nameplate Capacity (MW) × Regional Capacity Factor (%) × 8,760 Hours ($/MWh)

29
Copyright 2025 Lazard
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy System

Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Storage Cost of Firming Intermittency

A COST OF FIRMING INTERMITTENCY

Cost of Firming Intermittency—Results


The Cost of Firming Intermittency or “firming cost” is the incremental cost to firm1 solar, solar + storage or wind resources through
additional monthly capacity payments to a firming resource under current regional system planning constructs

LCOE plus Levelized Firming Cost ($/MWh)2


Gas Peaking LCOE v18.0 ($149 – $251/MWh)
$250

225

200

175 $164
$142 $142 $144
150 $137
$127 $128 $131 $51
$116 $122 $118 Gas Combined Cycle LCOE
125 $109 $111 v18.0 ($48 – $109/MWh)
$103 $51
$66 $96 $99 $97
100 $73
$48 $42 $86 $91
$50 $84 $86 $66 $73 $42 $80
$71 $86 $44 $72 $24
75 $50 $44 $48 $42
$23
$14
$57 $42 $24
$23 $114
50 $14 $93
$77 $69 $74 $77 $70 $67
$66 $61 $63 $59 $65 $58
25 $53 $49 $51 $52 $51 $55 $55
$41 $43 $44

0
Solar Wind Solar PV + Storage Wind Solar Wind Solar PV + Storage Wind Solar Wind
ELCC3 39% 26% 7% 41%4 12% 51% 20% 38% 33%4 38% 38% 25%
Capacity Factor 20% 37% 27% 27% 33% 21% 40% 18% 18% 30% 24% 34%
Resource Penetration 13% 26% 43% 43% 17% 2% 61% 2% 2% 5% 34% 46%
MISO CAISO SPP PJM ERCOT
2 4,5 1
Unsubsidized Regional LCOE Subsidized Regional LCOE (excl. Energy Community) Levelized Firming Cost
Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
Note: Total, including firming cost, does not represent the cost of building a 24/7 firm resource on a single project site but, instead, the LCOE of a renewable resource and the additional capacity costs required to achieve the resource adequacy
requirement in the relevant reliability region based on the net cost of new entry (“Net CONE”). ISO ELCC data as of April 2025 and representative of annualized ELCC values.
1 Firming costs reflect the cost of additional capacity required to supplement the net capacity of the renewable resource (nameplate capacity * (1 – ELCC)) and the Net CONE of a new firm resource (capital and operating costs, less expected market
revenues). Net CONE is assessed and published by grid operators for each regional market. Grid operators use a natural gas peaker as the assumed new resource in MISO ($10.03/kW-mo), SPP ($8.38/kW-mo), PJM ($10.29/kW-mo) and ERCOT
($9.92/kW-mo). In CAISO, the assumed new resource is a 4-hour lithium-ion battery storage system ($18.92/kW-mo). For the PV + Storage cases in CAISO and PJM, assumed storage configuration is 50% of PV capacity and 4-hour duration.
2 Reflects the average of the high and low of Lazard’s LCOE v18.0 for each technology using the regional capacity factor, as indicated, to demonstrate the regional differences in project costs.
3 ELCC is an indicator of the incremental reliability contribution of a given resource to the electricity grid based on its contribution to meeting peak electricity demand. For example, a 1 MW wind resource with a 15% ELCC provides 0.15 MW of
capacity contribution and would need to be supplemented by 0.85 MW of additional firm capacity in order to represent the addition of 1 MW of firm system capacity.
4 For PV + Storage cases, the effective ELCC value is represented. CAISO and PJM assess ELCC values separately for the PV and storage components of a system. Storage ELCC value is provided only for the capacity that can be charged directly by
the accompanying resource up to the energy required for a 4-hour discharge during peak load. Any capacity available in excess of the 4-hour maximum discharge is attributed to the system at the solar ELCC. ELCC values for storage range from 55%
to 75% for PJM and CAISO, respectively.
30
Copyright 2025 Lazard 5 This sensitivity analysis assumes that projects qualify for the full ITC, have a capital structure that includes sponsor equity, debt and tax equity and assumes the equity owner has taxable income to monetize the tax credits.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
CONFIDENTIAL

V Appendix

Copyright 2025 Lazard


CONFIDENTIAL

A LCOE v18.0

Copyright 2025 Lazard


A LCOE V18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Methodology


($ in millions, unless otherwise noted)
Lazard’s LCOE analysis consists of creating a power plant model representing an illustrative project for each relevant technology and
solving for the $/MWh value that results in a levered IRR equal to the assumed cost of equity (see subsequent “Key Assumptions” pages
for detailed assumptions by technology) Unsubsidized Onshore Wind — Low Case Sample Illustrative Calculations
5
Year 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 30 Key Assum ptions
Capacity (MW) (A) 300 300 300 300 300 300 Capacity (MW) 300
Capacity Factor (B) 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% Capacity Factor 55%
Total Generation ('000 MWh) (C)* = (A) x (B) 1,445 1,445 1,445 1,445 1,445 1,445 Fuel Cost ($/MMBtu) $0.00
Levelized Energy Cost ($/M Wh) (D) $36.7 $36.7 $36.7 $36.7 $36.7 $36.7 Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 0
Total Revenues (E)* = (C) x (D) $53.0 $53.0 $53.0 $53.0 $53.0 $53.0 Fixed O&M ($/kW-year) $24.5
Variable O&M ($/MWh) $0.0
Total Fuel Cost (F) -- -- -- -- -- -- O&M Escalation Rate 2.25%
Total O&M (G)* 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.0 14.0 Capital Structure
Total Operating Costs (H) = (F) + (G) $7.4 $7.5 $7.7 $7.9 $8.0 $14.0 Debt 60.0%
Cost of Debt 8.0%
EBITDA (I) = (E) - (H) $45.7 $45.5 $45.3 $45.1 $45.0 $39.0 Equity 40.0%
Cost of Equity 12.0%
2
Debt Outstanding - Beginning of Period (J) $342.0 $339.0 $335.7 $332.2 $328.4 $28.1 Taxes and Tax Incentives:
Debt - Interest Expense (K) (27.4) (27.1) (26.9) (26.6) (26.3) (2.3) Combined Tax Rate 40%
6
Debt - Principal Payment (L) (3.0) (3.3) (3.5) (3.8) (4.1) (28.1) Economic Life (years) 30
Levelized Debt Service (M) = (K) + (L) ($30.4) ($30.4) ($30.4) ($30.4) ($30.4) ($30.4) MACRS Depreciation (Year Schedule) 5
Capex
EBITDA (I) $45.7 $45.5 $45.3 $45.1 $45.0 $39.0 EPC Costs ($/kW) $1,900
Depreciation (MACRS) (N) (114.0) (182.4) (109.4) (65.7) (65.7) 0.0 Additional Ow ner's Costs ($/kW) $0
Interest Expense (K) (27.4) (27.1) (26.9) (26.6) (26.3) 39.0 Transmission Costs ($/kW) $0
Taxable Incom e (O) = (I) + (N) + (K) ($95.7) ($164.0) ($91.0) ($47.1) ($47.0) ($2.3) Total Capital Costs ($/kW) $1,900
3
Tax Benefit (Liability) (P) = (O) x (tax rate) $38.5 $65.9 $36.6 $18.9 $18.9 ($14.8) Total Capex ($m) $570

4
After-Tax Net Equity Cash Flow (Q) = (I) + (M) + (P) ($228.0) $53.7 $81.0 $51.5 $33.7 $33.5 ($6.2)
IRR For Equity Investors 12%
Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
Note: Numbers presented for illustrative purposes only. Technology-Dependent
* Denotes unit conversion.
1 Assumes half-year convention for discounting purposes.
2 Reflects initial debt financing to fund capex. Consistent Across
3 Assumes full monetization of tax benefits or losses immediately. Versions/Technologies
4
5
Reflects initial cash outflow from equity investors to fund capex.
Reflects a “key” subset of all assumptions for methodology illustration purposes only. Does not reflect all assumptions. 33
Copyright 2025 Lazard 6 Economic life sets debt amortization schedule.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
A LCOE V18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy—Key Assumptions


Renewable Energy: Solar PV

Units Community and C&I Utility


Low High Low High

Net Facility Output MW 2.0 150

Total Capital Cost $/kW $1,600 – $3,300 $1,150 – $1,600

Fixed O&M $/kW-yr $13.00 – $20.00 $11.00 – $14.00

Variable O&M $/MWh –– ––

Heat Rate Btu/kWh –– ––

Capacity Factor % 20% – 15% 30% – 20%

Fuel Price $/MMBTU –– ––

Construction Time Months 6 15

Facility Life Years 30 35

Levelized Cost of Energy $/MWh $81 – $217 $38 – $78

34
Copyright 2025 Lazard Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
A LCOE V18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy—Key Assumptions (cont’d)


Renewable Energy

Units Geothermal Wind—Onshore Wind—Offshore


Low High Low High Low High

Net Facility Output MW 250 300 900

Total Capital Cost $/kW $5,000 – $6,460 $1,900 – $2,300 $3,450 – $6,550

Fixed O&M $/kW-yr $14.50 – $15.75 $24.50 – $40.00 $60.00 – $91.50

Variable O&M $/MWh $9.05 – $24.80 –– ––

Heat Rate Btu/kWh –– –– ––

Capacity Factor % 90% – 80% 55% – 30% 55% – 45%

Fuel Price $/MMBTU –– –– ––

Construction Time Months 36 18 24

Facility Life Years 25 30 30

Levelized Cost of Energy $/MWh $66 – $109 $37 – $86 $70 – $157

35
Copyright 2025 Lazard Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
A LCOE V18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy—Key Assumptions (cont’d)


Renewable Energy: Hybrid Generation + Storage

Units Solar PV + Storage—Utility Wind + Storage—Onshore

Low High Low High

Storage
Power Rating MW 50 50

Duration Hours 4 4

Usable Energy MWh 200 200

90% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Year % 350 350


Roundtrip Efficiency % 92% 92%

Inverter Cost $/kW $19 – $50 $19 – $50

Total Capital Cost (excl. Inverter) $/kWh $122 – $313 $122 – $313

Storage O&M $/kWh $3.00 – $8.02 $3.00 – $8.02

Generation

Capacity MW 100 100

Capacity Factor % 30.0% – 20.0% 55.0% – 30.0%


Project Life Years 35 30

Total Capital Cost $/kW $1,150 – $1,600 $1,900 – $2,300


Fixed O&M $/kW $11.00 – $14.00 $24.50 – $40.00

Extended Warranty Start Year 3 3

Warranty Expense % of Capital Costs % 0.7% – 1.9% 0.7% – 1.9%

Charging Cost $/MWh $0.00 $0.00


Unsubsidized LCOE $/MWh $50 – $131 $44 – $123

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information. 36


Copyright 2025 Lazard Note: Hybrid scenarios assume 10% cost synergies for storage capital costs and 25% synergies for inverter costs due to colocation of the storage and generation asset.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
A LCOE V18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy—Key Assumptions (cont’d)


Conventional Energy
Gas Combined Cycle
Units Gas Peaking (New Build) U.S. Nuclear (New Build) Coal (New Build) (New Build)
Low High Low High Low High Low High

Net Facility Output MW 550 – 175 2,200 600 1,225 – 750

Total Capital Cost $/kW $1,150 – $1,450 $9,020 – $14,820 $3,405 – $7,210 $1,200 – $1,600

Fixed O&M $/kW-yr $10.00 – $17.00 $136.00 – $158.00 $40.85 – $94.35 $10.00 – $25.50

Variable O&M $/MWh $3.50 – $5.00 $4.40 – $5.15 $3.10 – $5.70 $2.75 – $5.00

Heat Rate Btu/kWh 10,275 – 11,175 10,450 8,750 – 12,000 6,475 – 6,550

Capacity Factor % 15% – 10% 92% – 89% 85% – 65% 90% – 30%

Fuel Price $/MMBTU $3.45 $0.85 $1.47 $3.45

Construction Time Months 24 84 60 – 66 24

Facility Life Years 30 70 40 30

Levelized Cost of Energy $/MWh $149 – $251 $141 – $220 $71 – $173 $48 – $109

37
Copyright 2025 Lazard Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
A LCOE V18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy—Key Assumptions (cont’d)


Marginal Cost of Selected Existing Conventional Generation
Gas Combined Cycle
Units Gas Peaking (Operating) U.S. Nuclear (Operating) Coal (Operating) (Operating)
Low High Low High Low High Low High

Net Facility Output MW 240 – 50 2,200 600 550

Total Capital Cost $/kW $0 $0 $0 $0

Fixed O&M $/kW-yr $4.00 – $6.10 $89.00 – $121.60 $21.70 – $33.80 $8.90 – $13.60

Variable O&M $/MWh $2.70 – $9.30 $2.70 – $3.90 $3.20 – $7.20 $0.80 – $1.80

Heat Rate Btu/kWh 10,900 – 12,550 10,400 – 10,400 10,250 – 11,800 6,950 – 7,475

Capacity Factor % 5% – 1% 91% – 87% 49% – 7% 62% – 17%

Fuel Price $/MMBtu $2.50 – $2.90 $0.80 – $0.80 $1.70 – $2.40 $2.50 – $2.90

Construction Time Months 24 84 60 24

Facility Life Years 30 70 40 30

Levelized Cost of Energy $/MWh $47 – $170 $30 – $38 $31 – $114 $24 – $39

38
Copyright 2025 Lazard Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
A LCOE V18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy Components—Low End ($/MWh)


Certain renewable energy generation technologies are already cost-competitive with conventional generation technologies; key factors
regarding the continued cost decline of renewable energy generation technologies are the ability of technological development and
Industry scale to continue lowering operating expenses and capital costs for renewable energy generation technologies

Solar PV—Community & C&I $74 $7 $81

Solar PV—Utility $34 $4 $38

Solar PV + Storage—Utility $45 $4 $50

Renewable
Geothermal $55 $2 $9 $66
Energy

Wind—Onshore $32 $5 $37

Wind + Storage—Onshore $39 $5 $44

Wind—Offshore $58 $12 $70

Gas Peaking $102 $8 $4 $35 $149

U.S. Nuclear $113 $15 $4 $9 $141


Conventional Energy
Coal $50 $5 $3 $13 $71

Gas Combined Cycle $21 $1 $3 $22 $48

$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175


Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh)
Capital Cost Fixed O&M Variable O&M Fuel Cost

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information. 39


Copyright 2025 Lazard Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
A LCOE V18.0

Levelized Cost of Energy Components—High End ($/MWh)


Certain renewable energy generation technologies are already cost-competitive with conventional generation technologies; key factors
regarding the continued cost decline of renewable energy generation technologies are the ability of technological development and
Industry scale to continue lowering operating expenses and capital costs for renewable energy generation technologies

Solar PV—Community & C&I $202 $15 $217

Solar PV—Utility $70 $8 $78

Solar PV + Storage—Utility $123 $8 $131

Renewable
Geothermal $82 $2 $25 $109
Energy

Wind—Onshore $71 $15 $86

Wind + Storage—Onshore $108 $15 $123

Wind—Offshore $133 $23 $157

Gas Peaking $188 $19 $5 $39 $251

U.S. Nuclear $188 $17 $5 $9 $220


Conventional Energy
Coal $134 $17 $6 $18 $173

Gas Combined Cycle $72 $10 $5 $23 $109

$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275
Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh)
Capital Cost Fixed O&M Variable O&M Fuel Cost

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information. 40


Copyright 2025 Lazard Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
CONFIDENTIAL

B LCOS v10.0

Copyright 2025 Lazard


B LCOS V10.0

Levelized Cost of Storage Comparison—Methodology


($ in millions, unless otherwise noted)
Lazard’s LCOS analysis consists of creating a power plant model representing an illustrative project for each relevant technology and
solving for the $/MWh value that results in a levered IRR equal to the assumed cost of equity (see subsequent “Key Assumptions” page for
detailed assumptions by technology)
Subsidized Utility-Scale Standalone (100 MW/200 MWh)—Low Case Sample Calculations
1 7
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 20 Key Assumptions
Capacity (MW) (A) 100 100 100 100 100 100 Power Rating (MW) 100
Available Capacity (MW) 110 109 107 104 102 110 110 Duration (Hours) 2
2
Total Generation ('000 MWh) (B)* 63 63 63 63 63 63 Usable Energy (MWh) 200
Levelized Storage Cost ($/MWh) (C) $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 $95 90% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day 1
Total Revenues (D)* = (B) x (C) $6.0 $6.0 $6.0 $6.0 $6.0 $6.0 Operating Days/Year 350
Charging Cost ($/kWh) $0.033
3
Total Charging Cost (E) (2.3) (2.3) (2.4) (2.4) (2.5) (3.3) Fixed O&M Cost ($/kWh) $3.00
4
Total O&M, Warranty, & Augmentation (F)* (0.6) (0.6) (0.8) (0.8) (2.6) (1.1) Fixed O&M Escalator (%) 2.5%
Total Operating Costs (G) = (E) + (F) ($2.9) ($2.9) ($3.2) ($3.3) ($5.1) ($4.5) Charging Cost Escalator (%) 1.97%
Efficiency (%) 91%
EBITDA (H) = (D) - (G) $3.1 $3.0 $2.8 $2.7 $0.9 $1.5 Capital Structure
Debt 20.0%
5
Debt Outstanding - Beginning of Period (I) $6.8 $6.6 $6.4 $6.3 $6.1 $0.6 Cost of Debt 8.0%
Debt - Interest Expense (J) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.1) Equity 20.0%
Debt - Principal Payment (K) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.6) Cost of Equity 12.0%
Levelized Debt Service (L) = (J) + (K) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) Taxes
Combined Tax Rate 40.2%
EBITDA (H) $3.1 $3.0 $2.8 $2.7 $0.9 $1.5 Economic Life (years) 20
Depreciation (MACRS) (M) (5.4) (8.6) (5.2) (3.1) (3.1) 0.0 MACRS (Year Schedule) 5 Years
Interest Expense (J) (0.5) 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.5) Federal ITC - BESS 40%
Taxable Income (N) = (H) + (M) + (J) ($2.9) ($3.9) ($2.4) ($0.4) ($2.2) $1.1 Capex
8
Tax Benefit (Liability) (O) = (N) x (Tax Rate) $1.2 $1.6 $1.0 $0.2 $0.9 ($0.4) Total Initial Installed Cost ($/kWh) $169
Extended Warranty (% of Capital Cost) 0.7%
Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) (P) $13.5 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Extended Warranty Start Year 3
Total Capex ($m) $34
6
After-Tax Net Equity Cash Flow (Q) = (H) + (L) + (O) + (P) ($27.0) $17.0 $3.9 $3.1 $2.2 $1.1 $0.4
IRR For Equity Investors 12.0%

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information. Technology-Dependent


Note: Numbers presented for illustrative purposes only.
* Denotes unit conversion.
1 Assumes half-year convention for discounting purposes. Consistent Across
2 Total Generation reflects (Cycles) x (Available Capacity) x (Depth of Discharge) x (Duration). Note for the purpose of this analysis, Lazard accounts for degradation in the available capacity calculation. Versions/Technologies
3 Charging Cost reflects (Total Generation) / [(Efficiency) x (Charging Cost) x (1 + Charging Cost Escalator)].
4 O&M costs include general O&M (BESS plus any relevant Solar PV or Wind O&M, escalating annually at 2.5%), augmentation costs (incurred in years needed to maintain usable energy at original storage module cost) and warranty costs
starting in year 3.
5 Reflects initial debt financing to fund capex.
6
7
Reflects initial cash outflow from equity sponsor.
Reflects a “key” subset of all assumptions for methodology and illustration purposes only. Does not reflect all assumptions. 42
Copyright 2025 Lazard 8 Initial Installed Cost includes inverter cost, module cost, balance-of-system cost and EPC cost.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
B LCOS V10.0

Levelized Cost of Storage—Key Assumptions


Utility-Scale C&I Residential
Standalone Standalone Standalone

Units (100 MW/200 MWh) (100 MW/400 MWh) (1 MW/2 MWh) (0.006 MW/0.025 MWh)

Power Rating MW 100 100 1 0.006


Duration Hours 2.0 4.0 2.0 4.2
Usable Energy MWh 200 400 2 0.025
90% Depth of Discharge Cycles/Day # 1 1 1 1
Operating Days/Year # 350 350 350 350
Solar/Wind Capacity MW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Annual Solar/Wind Generation MWh 0 0 0 0
Project Life Years 20 20 20 20
Annual Storage Output MWh 63,000 126,000 630 8
Lifetime Storage Output MWh 1,260,000 2,520,000 12,600 158

Initial Capital Cost—DC $/kWh $113 – $244 $107 – $232 $238 – $445 $721 – $1,338
Initial Capital Cost—AC $/kW $26 – $70 $25 – $67 $40 – $80 $0 – $0
EPC Costs $/kWh $29 – $122 $28 – $116 $56 – $168 $0 – $0
Solar/Wind Capital Cost $/kW $0 – $0 $0 – $0 $0 – $0 $0 – $0
Total Initial Installed Cost M$ $31 – $80 $56 – $146 $1 – $1 $0 – $0
Storage O&M $/kWh $3.0 – $8.2 $3.0 – $8.0 $7.3 – $9.1 $0.0 – $0.0
Extended Warranty Start Year 3 3 3 3
Warranty Expense % of Capital Costs % 0.65% – 1.50% 0.66% – 1.85% 0.50% – 1.30% 0.00% – 0.00%
Investment Tax Credit (Solar) % 0% 0% 0% 0%
Investment Tax Credit (Storage) % 30.00% – 40.00% 30.00% – 40.00% 30.00% – 40.00% 30.00% – 40.00%
Production Tax Credit $/MWh $0 $0 $0 $0
Charging Cost $/MWh $33 $27 $111 $152
Charging Cost Escalator % 1.97% 1.97% 1.97% 1.97%
Efficiency of Storage Technology % 91% – 87% 92% – 86% 92% – 88% 91% – 88%
Unsubsidized LCOS $/MWh $129 – $277 $115 – $254 $319 – $506 $547 – $860

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.


Note: All cases were modeled using 90% depth of discharge and 10% overbuild. Wholesale charging costs reflect weighted average hourly wholesale energy prices across a representative charging profile of a standalone storage asset 43
Copyright 2025 Lazard participating in wholesale revenue streams. Escalation is derived from the EIA’s “AEO 2022 Energy Source–Electric Price Forecast (20-year CAGR)”.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
B LCOS V10.0

Levelized Cost of Storage Components—Low End ($/MWh)


Capital costs, fixed operating costs and charging costs contribute to the all-in cost in varying proportions depending on the specific
energy storage use case and configuration

Utility-Scale Standalone
$62 $20 $47 $129
(100 MW, 2-Hour)

In-Front-of-the-Meter
Storage

Utility-Scale Standalone $58 $18 $39 $115


(100 MW, 4-Hour)

C&I Standalone $124 $41 $154 $319


(1 MW, 2-Hour)

Behind-the-Meter
Storage

Residential Standalone $296 $32 $220 $547


(0.006 MW, 4-Hour)

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600

Levelized Cost of Storage ($/MWh)


Capital Cost Fixed O&M Charging Cost

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information. 44


Copyright 2025 Lazard Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
B LCOS V10.0

Levelized Cost of Storage Components—High End ($/MWh)


Capital costs, fixed operating costs and charging costs contribute to the all-in cost in varying proportions depending on the specific
energy storage use case and configuration

Utility-Scale Standalone
$174 $49 $53 $277
(100 MW, 2-Hour)

In-Front-of-the-Meter
Storage

Utility-Scale Standalone $161 $48 $45 $254


(100 MW, 4-Hour)

C&I Standalone $275 $61 $171 $506


(1 MW, 2-Hour)

Behind-the-Meter
Storage

Residential Standalone $566 $61 $233 $860


(0.006 MW, 4-Hour)

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000

Levelized Cost of Storage ($/MWh)


Capital Cost Fixed O&M Charging Cost

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information. 45


Copyright 2025 Lazard Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
B LCOS V10.0

Energy Storage Use Cases—Overview


By identifying and evaluating selected energy storage applications, Lazard’s LCOS analyzes the cost of energy storage for in-front-of-the-
meter and behind-the-meter use cases

Use Case Description Technologies Assessed


• Large-scale energy storage system designed for rapid start and precise following of
In-Front-of-the-Meter

dispatch signal

• Variations in system discharge duration are designed to meet varying system • Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
Storage

Utility-Scale
needs (i.e., short-duration frequency regulation, longer-duration energy arbitrage1 • Lithium Nickel Manganese
Standalone or capacity, etc.) Cobalt Oxide (NMC)
− To better reflect current market trends, this analysis analyzes 2- and 4-hour
durations2

• Energy storage system designed for behind-the-meter peak shaving and demand
Commercial & charge reduction for C&I users • Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
Behind-the-Meter Storage

Industrial − Units are often configured to support multiple commercial energy management • Lithium Nickel Manganese
Standalone strategies and provide optionality for the system to provide grid services to a Cobalt Oxide (NMC)
utility or the wholesale market, as appropriate, in a given region

• Energy storage system designed for behind-the-meter residential home use—


• Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
Residential provides backup power and power quality improvements
Standalone • Lithium Nickel Manganese
− Depending on geography, can arbitrage residential time-of-use (“TOU”) rates
Cobalt Oxide (NMC)
and/or participate in utility demand response programs

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information.


1 For the purposes of this analysis, “energy arbitrage” in the context of storage systems paired with solar PV includes revenue streams associated with the sale of excess generation from the solar PV system, as appropriate, for a given use

2
case.
The Value Snapshot Case Studies only evaluate the 4-hour utility-scale use case.
46
Copyright 2025 Lazard
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
B LCOS V10.0

Energy Storage Use Cases—Illustrative Operational Parameters


Lazard’s LCOS evaluates selected energy storage applications and use cases by identifying illustrative operational parameters 1
• Energy storage systems may also be configured to support combined/“stacked” use cases
B x C D x E x F A x G

A B C = D E F = G = H

Project Solar/ Battery Storage Nameplate 90% DOD


Life Storage Wind Degradation Duration Capacity Cycles/ Days/ Annual Project
(Years) (MW)2 (MW) (per annum) (Hours) (MWh)3 Day4 Year5 MWh6 MWh
In-Front-of-the-Meter

20 100 – 2.6% 2 200 1 350 63,000 1,260,000


Storage

Utility-Scale
Standalone

20 100 – 2.6% 4 400 1 350 126,000 2,520,000


Behind-the-Meter Storage

Commercial &
Industrial 20 1 – 2.6% 2 2 1 350 630 12,600
Standalone

Residential
Standalone 20 0.006 – 1.9% 4 0.025 1 350 8 158

Source: Lazard estimates and publicly available information. = “Usable Energy”7


Note: Operational parameters presented herein are applied to Value Snapshot and LCOS calculations. Annual and Project MWh in the Value Snapshot analysis may vary from the representative project.
1 The use cases herein represent illustrative current and contemplated energy storage applications.
2 Indicates power rating of system (i.e., system size).
3 Indicates total battery energy content on a single, 100% charge or “usable energy”. Usable energy divided by power rating (in MW) reflects hourly duration of system. This analysis reflects common practice in the market whereby batteries
are upsized in year one to 110% of nameplate capacity (e.g., a 100 MWh battery actually begins project life with 110 MWh).
4 “DOD” denotes depth of battery discharge (i.e., the percent of the battery’s energy content that is discharged). A 90% DOD indicates that a fully charged battery discharges 90% of its energy. To preserve battery longevity, this analysis
assumes that the battery never charges over 95%, or discharges below 5%, of its usable energy.
5 Indicates number of days of system operation per calendar year.
6 Augmented to nameplate MWh capacity as needed to ensure usable energy is maintained at the nameplate capacity, based on Year 1 storage module cost. 47
Copyright 2025 Lazard 7 Usable energy indicates energy stored and available to be dispatched from the battery.
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.
B LCOS V10.0

Lazard’s LCOE+ will continue to evolve over time, and we appreciate that there can, and will be, varied views regarding the specifics of our analyses. Accordingly, we would be
happy to discuss any of our underlying assumptions and analyses in further detail—and, to be clear, we welcome these discussions as we try to improve our studies over time. In
that regard, the studies remain our attempt to contribute in a differentiated and impactful manner to the Industry.

More generally, Lazard remains committed to our Power, Energy & Infrastructure Group clients, who remain our highest priority. In that regard, we believe that we have the greatest
allocation of resources and effort devoted to this sector of any investment bank. Further, we have an ongoing and intense focus on strategic issues that require long-term
commitment and planning. Accordingly, Lazard strives to maintain its preeminent position as a thought leader and leading advisor to clients on their most important matters,
especially in this Industry.

If you have any questions regarding this memorandum or Lazard’s LCOE+, please feel free to contact any member of the Lazard Power, Energy & Infrastructure Group, including
those listed below.

George Bilicic
Vice Chairman of Investment Banking, Global Head of Power, Energy & Infrastructure
Tel: +1 212 632-1560
george.bilicic@lazard.com

Frank Daily Pablo Hernandez Gregory Hort Mark Lund Chris Miller Samuel Scroggins
Managing Director Schmidt-Tophoff Managing Director Managing Director Managing Director Managing Director
Tel: +1 713 236-4647 Managing Director Tel: +1 212 632-6022 Tel: +1 713 236-4639 Tel: +1 713 236-4675 Tel: +1 212 632-6758
frank.daily@lazard.com Tel: +1 713 236-4618 gregory.hort@lazard.com mark.lund@lazard.com chris.miller@lazard.com samuel.scroggins@lazard.com
pablo.hernandez@lazard.com
Kevin Chi Daniel Katz Gerard Pechal Gennadiy Ryskin Zac Scotton Sarah Steiner
Director Director Director Director Director Director
Tel: +1 212 632-8240 Tel: +1 212 632-1966 Tel: +1 713 236-4673 Tel: +1 713 236-4624 Tel: +1 713 236-4652 Tel: +1 212 632-1873
kevin.chi@lazard.com daniel.katz@lazard.com gerard.pechal@lazard.com gennadiy.ryskin@lazard.com zac.scotton@lazard.com sarah.steiner@lazard.com
Li Wynn Tan Lauren Davis Brody Adams Zain Baquer Clare Everts Sebastian Laso Errazuriz
Director Vice President Associate Associate Associate Associate
Tel: +1 212 632-1313 Tel: +1 332 204-5527 Tel: +1 917 994-3218 Tel: +1 917 994-3302 Tel: +1 917 994-3240 Tel: +1 917 994-3210
li.tan@lazard.com lauren.davis@lazard.com brody.adams@lazard.com zain.baquer@lazard.com clare.everts@lazard.com sebastian.laso@lazard.com
Isabelle Carpenter Quinn Lewis George Rao Bill Sembo
Analyst Analyst Analyst Senior Advisor
Tel: +1 917 994-3154 Tel: +1 332 204-5512 Tel: +1 713 236-4659 Tel: +1 713 236-4653
isabelle.carpenter@lazard.com quinn.lewis@lazard.com george.rao@lazard.com bill.sembo@lazard.com

48
Copyright 2025 Lazard
This analysis has been prepared by Lazard for general informational and illustrative purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or
other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of Lazard.

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