JLL The Cold Storage Opportunity in Asia Pacific
JLL The Cold Storage Opportunity in Asia Pacific
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Cold storage real estate 101 → A rapidly growing sector → The investment upside →
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Cold chain, unlocked: The cold storage opportunity in Asia Pacific Contents →
Key takeaways
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Cold chain, unlocked: The cold storage opportunity in Asia Pacific Contents →
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Cold chain, unlocked: The cold storage opportunity in Asia Pacific Contents →
01
What is cold storage?
Cold storage facilities are a vital component
of the entire cold chain process. Simply, these
real estate 101 is usually the end consumer. Through this cold
chain process, products are transported and
stored in a consistent and temperature-controlled
environment, of which cold storage real estate
plays a critical role.
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Cold chain, unlocked: The cold storage opportunity in Asia Pacific Contents →
Figure 1
The cold chain journey – Ice cream
Source: JLL
Note: Temperature and travel times will differ depending on locations.
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Figure 2
Cold storage temperature brackets
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Figure 3
How cold storage services are evolving
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Figure 4
Cold storage typical real estate requirements
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The criticality of cold storage will spur
growth
The global cold storage sector has expanded
Robust market growth translates to rising capacity Macro and industry forces
on a per capita basis. In 2014, global capacity per Rising interest in the cold storage sector is
capita was just 0.07 cubic metres. Assuming current underpinned by the structural growth drivers of
population projections3 and historical CAGR cold the market. Global disruptions highlighted the
storage capacity growth, global capacity per capita importance of resilient supply chains, and the
will almost double to 0.13 cubic metres by 2030. vital role cold storage real estate plays in these
networks. Changing consumption patterns and the
Capacity levels differ significantly in APAC. movement towards e-commerce has led to a surge
Generally, the more advanced economies have in the need for efficient cold chain logistics and
greater capacity relative to more emerging parts more cold storage real estate.
of Asia. This is unsurprising given that logistics
networks in these countries tend to be more The primary cold storage real estate growth drivers
sophisticated and institutionalised. According are illustrated on page 13, divided between general
to the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index macroeconomic growth determinants and more
(LPI) 2023, Singapore ranked 1st, Japan came specific industry growth determinants.
in 13th, while South Korea ranked 17th globally.
Australia and China both ranked 19th. Emerging
South-East Asian countries are much further
down the rankings. Figure 6
Refrigerated warehouse capacity in cubic
metres, per urban resident
Figure 5
Global cold storage capacity 0 - 0.2 0.2 - 0.4
(million cubic metres) Indonesia India
1,200 Philippines Japan
1,100 Vietnam Australia
Million cubic metres
1,000 China
900
800
0.4 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.8
700
South Korea New Zealand
600
United States Great Britain
500
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
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Macroeconomic determinants
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Industry determinants
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Market snapshots
Australia
Australia’s large geographic size and long supply of industries, from the pharmaceuticals industry
chains make cold storage real estate strategically to food and beverage. There’s also been more of
important, particularly in key logistics hubs and a recent shift towards more energy-efficient and
major cities. The market has expanded in recent environmentally-friendly solutions.
years, supported by growing demand from a range
Sydney Melbourne
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Market snapshots
Greater China
Market size ~1.0 million sqm ~0.6 million sqm ~0.6 million sqm
Lease term 1-3 years for end users; 1-3 years for end users; 10 years
5-10 years for operators 5-10 years for operators
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Market snapshots
North Asia
Tokyo Seoul
Most facilities are owner-occupied, although 3PL groups, e-commerce players, and F&B tenants
there is increasing leasing activity as more are the main occupiers of the cold storage space.
developments for lease become available. Existing Due to a smaller pool of tenants compared to
cold storage operators are small in scale and that of dry storage, leasing demand has slowed in
cannot drive rapid market expansion. A catalyst for recent quarters. An added headwind is the large
greater growth is if major 3PL companies enter the amount of existing and upcoming supply. Core
cold chain business. investors are reviewing assets on a selective basis.
Tokyo Seoul
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Market snapshots
Southeast Asia
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Figure 7
Consumer spending – Food & beverage and pharmaceutical 2023-2027 CAGR % by country
10.0% 14.0%
12.0%
8.0%
10.0%
6.0%
8.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2.0% 4.0%
0.0% 2.0%
-2.0% 0.0%
India
Philippines
Malaysia
Vietnam
New Zealand
Australia
Singapore
Thailand
Indonesia
China (mainland)
Japan
Hong Kong (SAR)
South Korea
India
Philippines
Malaysia
Vietnam
Indonesia
China (mainland)
Australia
New Zealand
Thailand
Hong Kong (SAR)
Singapore
Japan
South Korea
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Why invest in cold storage?
The more challenging investment environment
is directing investor interest towards more
upside
faced in delivering perishable vaccines during the
COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent food
shortages have emphasised the criticality of robust
refrigerated infrastructure. This makes cold storage
assets a relatively resilient sector.
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4. Depending on the market and asset, the range could be higher or lower
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Figure 8
APAC distribution centre vs cold storage centre transaction volumes
30,000 1,000
900
25,000 800
USD millions
USD millions
20,000 700
600
15,000 500
400
10,000 300
5,000 200
100
- -
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H23
Distribution centres Cold storage centres (RHS)
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Investment managers drove much of the Similar to general L&I sector trends, more asset
investment activity in the past few years. creation in the past two years has supported
Investment managers were the largest net buyers, investment levels. This is reflected in developers
allocating USD 436.4 million net between 2021 and operators selling down their holdings on a
and H1 2023. Part of this is explained by managers net basis over this same period as they looked to
over-subscribing to the L&I sector more broadly recycle capital back into their operations.
and the need to allocate capital, including to cold
storage real estate. In addition to rising supply, adding further
impetus to investment demand are smaller ticket
Real estate investment trusts (REITS) were also net sizes. Between 2013 and 2022, cold storage deals
buyers over the same period. Many REITs prioritise averaged USD 19.2 million. General distribution
the stable income stream, longer lease terms, and centre deals by comparison averaged USD 48.3
diversification benefits offered by the cold storage million over the same period. With many groups
sector, allocating USD 322.4 million net over the less willing/unable to invest in the current
same period. This focus on stability is driven by environment, the ability to allocate capital in
their need to meet distribution requirements, smaller tranches and into a more alternative
maintain portfolio and valuation stability, and and higher-yielding sector (in conjunction with
ensure access to capital markets for financing. greater asset creation) may support cold storage
investment activity.
Figure 9
APAC cold storage buyers and sellers (2021-H1 2023)
500,000,000
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
USD millions
100,000,000
-
-100,000,000
-200,000,000
-300,000,000
-400,000,000
-500,000,000
REIT
Undisclosed
High net
worth
Corporate
Bank
Equity fund
REOC
Sovereign
wealth fund
Developer/
Owner/
Operator
Investment
manager
Buyer Seller
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Figure 10
APAC cold storage average deal size (USD millions) and ratio to the distribution centre
average deal size
120%
Ratio to distribution centre average deal size
100%
35.5
80%
24.8
60%
0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
What’s the investment opportunity? Given the increasing demand for cold storage
Investing in cold storage presents a compelling space, underpinned by relatively inelastic
opportunity for resilient and stable returns. underlying demand, cold storage assets can
Cold storage assets typically generate higher deliver robust financial performance. This asset
rental rates and investment yields, making cold class can also provide greater stability and
storage an attractive destination for capital in resilience in investment portfolios.
the current investment climate where hurdle
rates remain elevated.
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