What Is Rational Expectations Theory?
The rational expectations theory is a concept and modeling technique that is
used widely in macroeconomics. The theory posits that individuals base their
decisions on three primary factors: their human rationality, the information
available to them, and their past experiences.
The theory suggests that people’s current expectations of the economy are,
themselves, able to influence what the future state of the economy will
become. This precept contrasts with the idea that government policy
influences financial and economic decisions.
Understanding Rational Expectations Theory
The rational expectations theory is the dominant assumption model used in
business cycles and finance as a cornerstone of the efficient market
hypothesis (EMH).
Economists often use the doctrine of rational expectations to explain
anticipated inflation rates or any other economic state. For example, if past
inflation rates were higher than expected, then people might consider this,
along with other indicators, to mean that future inflation also might exceed
expectations.
Using the idea of “expectations” in economic theory is not new. In the 1930s,
the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes assigned people’s
expectations about the future—which he called “waves of optimism and
pessimism”—a central role in determining the business cycle.
However, the actual theory of rational expectations was proposed by John F.
Muth in his seminal paper, “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price
Movements,” published in 1961 in the journal, Econometrica. Muth used the
term to describe numerous scenarios in which an outcome depends partly on
what people expect will happen. The theory did not catch on until the 1970s
with Robert E. Lucas, Jr. and the neoclassical revolution in economics.1
The Influence of Expectations and Outcomes
Expectations and outcomes influence each other. There is continual feedback
flow from past outcomes to current expectations. In recurrent situations, the
way the future unfolds from the past tends to be stable, and people adjust
their forecasts to conform to this stable pattern.
This doctrine is motivated by the thinking that led Abraham Lincoln to assert,
“You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of
the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.”
From the perspective of rational expectations theory, Lincoln’s statement is
on target: The theory does not deny that people often make forecasting
errors, but it does suggest that errors will not recur persistently.
Because people make decisions based on the available information at hand
combined with their past experiences, most of the time their decisions will be
correct. If their decisions are correct, then the same expectations for the
future will occur. If their decision was incorrect, then they will adjust their
behavior based on past mistakes.
Rational Expectations Theory: Does It Work?
Economics relies heavily on models and theories, many of which are
interrelated. For example, rational expectations have a critical relationship
with another fundamental idea in economics: the concept of equilibrium. The
validity of economic theories—do they work as they should in predicting
future states?—is always arguable. An example of this is the ongoing debate
about existing models’ failure to predict or untangle the causes of the 2007–
2008 financial crisis.
Because myriad factors are involved in economic models, it is never a simple
question of working or not working. Models are subjective approximations of
reality that are designed to explain observed phenomena. A model’s
predictions must be tempered by the randomness of the underlying data it
seeks to explain, and the theories that drive its equations.
When the Federal Reserve decided to use a quantitative easing program to
help the economy through the 2008 financial crisis, it unwittingly set
unattainable expectations for the country. The program reduced interest rates
for more than seven years.23 Thus, true to theory, people began to believe
that interest rates would remain low.
