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CMTH 380 BB0 TEST 2, Spring 2021 Duration: 3 hours: from 6 pm to 9 pm

Last Name ____________________________________First Name: ___________________________

Student ID Number _________________________ Total mark: 52

c. If a bank customer is chosen at random and is found to have a saving account, then

probability that this customer has a checking account is_____________.

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2. (4 marks)
Two independent alarms are working in the case of emergency with certain probability.
The probability that the first alarm is working in the case of emergency is 0.95, and probability
that the second alarm is working in the case of emergency is 0.90.
a. Probability that both alarms are working in the case of emergency is _______________

b. Probability that at least one alarm is working in the case of emergency is____________

c. Probability that neither of alarms is working in the case of emergency is _____________

d. Probability that first alarm will work and the second alarm will not work is _____________

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 3. (4 marks)
Suppose that for a certain midwestern city, in any given year the probability of tornado hitting is
0.15, so that P(T) = 0.15, probability of flooding from the river running through the city is 0.08,
so that P(F) = 0.08. Probability that at least one of two events T and F occurs in a given year is
P(T ∪ F) = 0.21.
a. Probability that both events T and F occur in a given year is P(T ∩ F) = ______________

b. Probability of tornado in the city given that the flooding from the river has occurred is

P(T|F) = ______________
c. Probability of flooding from the river in the city given that the tornado hitting has occurred is

P(F|T) = _____________
d. Are events T and F mutually exclusive? Answer Yes or No. _________________

Are events T and F independent? Answer Yes or No. _________________

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 4. (3 marks)
Suppose that a family has two children, each of which is a boy or a girl, and we assume that boys
and girls are equally likely at birth.
a. Probability that both children are girls if it’s known that at least one child is a girl is ______
b. Probability that both are girls given that the oldest child is a girl is ______
c. Probability that family has exactly one boy given that at least one child is a girl is _________

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5. (10 marks) so many questions are given for training purposes.
Two cold tablets are accidently placed in a box containing three aspirin tablets.
The five tablets are identical in appearance.
One tablet is selected at random from the box and swallowed by the first patient.
A tablet is then selected at random from the remaining tablets and swallowed by the
second patient.
a. Probability that the first patient obtained cold tablet, and the second patient obtained
aspirin tablet is __________
b. Probability that the first patient obtained aspirin tablet, and the second patient obtained
cold tablet is __________
c. Probability that exactly one patient obtained cold tablet is__________
d. Probability that exactly one patient obtained aspirin tablet is__________
e. Probability that both patients obtained cold tablet is ____________
f. Probability that both patients obtained aspirin tablet is ____________
g. Probability that neither patient obtained cold tablet is ____________
h. Probability that neither patient obtained aspirin tablet is ____________
i. Probability that at least one patient obtained cold tablet is ____________
j. Probability that at least one patient obtained aspirin tablet is ____________

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6.(2 marks)
A survey of people in a given region showed that 20% were smokers and 80% were nonsmokers.
The probability of death due to lung cancer, given that a person smoked, was 0.02 , and
probability of death due to lung cancer given that the person did not smoke was 0.002.
a. Probability of death due to the lung cancer for a randomly selected person in the region is

___________
b. If a person in a region has died from a lung cancer, then the probability that he was a smoker
is ___________

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7. (4 marks) so many questions are given for training purposes. You will get two questions on the
test
A certain disease occurs in 3% of a population. The test gives a positive result (indicating the
presence of the disease) in 90% of cases when the person has the disease and in 2% of cases when
the person does not have a disease.

a. Suppose that the test gives a positive result for a particular patient. Probability that a patient
has a disease is_______________

b. Suppose that the test gives a negative result for a particular patient. Probability that a patient
does not have a disease is________

c. Suppose that the test gives a positive result for a particular patient. Probability that a patient
does not have a disease.

d. Suppose that the test gives a negative result for a particular patient. Probability that a patient
has a disease is_______________

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8. (3 marks)
An insurance company needs to know how much to charge for a $100,000 policy insuring an
event against cancellation due to inclement weather.
The probability of inclement weather during the time of event is assessed as 2 in 100.
The value of the yearly premium such that the expected gain for insurance company will
equal to $500 is___________________.

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9. (4 marks)
A home security system is designed to have 80 % reliability rate. Suppose that five homes,
equipped with this system, experience an attempted burglary.
a. Probability that only one alarm will be triggered is______________________.
b. Probability that all alarms will be triggered is___________________________.
c. Probability that at least one of the alarms will be triggered is _____________.
d. The mean number of alarms triggered and standard deviation of number of alarms
triggered is _________.
e. Probability that at least two alarms are triggered.

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10. (3marks)
A student prepares for an exam by studying a list of 10 problems. She can solve 6 of them.
For an exam, the instructor selects 5 problems at random from the list of 10 problems.
a. Probability that the student can solve all 5 problems on exam is___________
b. Probability that the student can solve 2 problems on exam is ____________
c. The mean number of problems that the student can solve on exam is____________.

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11. (2 marks)
The average number of traffic accidents on a certain section of highway is two per week. Assume
that the number of accidents follows Poisson distribution with the mean equal to 2.
a. Probability of no accidents on this section of highway during a 1 – week period is ______
b. Probability of at most three accidents on this section of highway during a 2 – week period
is _________

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12. (3 marks)
The weights of adults are normally distributed with a mean 170.0 pounds and a standard
deviation of 25.0 pounds.
a. Probability that a randomly selected person will weigh at most 160 pounds is _______
b. The percent of adults who weigh at least 200 pounds is_____________
c. Probability that a randomly selected person will weigh between 140 and 165 pounds
is______

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13. (2 marks)
A used -car dealership has found that the length of time before a major repair is required on
the cars it sells is normally distributed with a mean equal to 10 months and a standard
deviation of 3 months.
If the dealer wants only 5% of the cars to fail before the end of the guarantee period, the length
of guarantee period in months should be ____________(round to the nearest month)

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14. (2 marks)
A producer of soft drinks was fairly certain that her brand had a 10% share of soft drink
market. In a market survey involving 2500 consumers of soft drinks, 211 expressed a
preference for her brand.
If the 10% figure is correct, probability of observing 211 or fewer consumers who prefer her
brand of soft drink in the sample of 2500 consumers is ___________

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15. (3 marks)
In a large corporate computer network, user logons to the system can be modeled as a Poisson
process with the mean of 25 logons per hour.
a. Probability that the time between two successive logons is no less than 6 minutes is ______
b. Probability that the time between two successive logons is no more than 2 minutes is
_______
c. Probability that the time between two successive logons is between 2 and 3 minutes is __

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