Jn ()ti 1 d1\\ -to d,l\' Id,·. W( ' 'Ol11l' ,H ro~', c,t,1f( •rt1t•n f'1 t.
, IJr h ,t\
I. r111l,1Mh, it ma r ti'tm toda v.
2 I d1,uH lhttt lw will w111 the 200 m rau•
,,/ wrll ~t> up
.l "f1wrt' Jrti iu •h < hctrH t that the pncP~ of p, trol and dw(, 1
1on
4. ~cht1 wdl ,noi.:.I prnhat \ ~tand first in th<' rJnn11dl rxt1minc1t
1
,
( "P
s. Our cricket team is 1kt h to win the, next twenh -twentv World
1
n,e word~ J'rtllMhlv', 'dou 1,!', 'hi~h (hancr,', 'mr t t, 1h/t,, , ,rnd /rr
k I\- IJ',t LJ lfl th ' ab<,vt•
1 1
ng of ,J/1 ('Vl'nf /-or PXc1mplt: , th"
~t,1tcments show a certain kind of unce rtainty fo r thf' ha p1wn 1
,t m,1y not rc1m todc1 y 11,•n', th•·
word probably in statement J indica tes that it may rain or
er "'rnilM rond1twns. S1m1lt1r
prediction has been made on the basis of past experic ncc" und
1
e c"1"e", wh,·n wt• try to drri ve Jt ,1
predictions have been mad e in statements 2 to 5. In all thes
decision, we face unce rtainty.
h 1 pt n, ~ tor tt t·
Prohab1hty 1~ the quantitative measure of the possibility ot
t r ·e) of an t1vcnt . Though the theory of prob ability star ted with gambhn~ 1t now finds w,de
1.>1. curr
gica l Sc1t nCe'>, Med ical XJ(11cec,,
applications in the fields of Commerce, Physical Sciences, Biolo
1
Weather Forecasting, etc.
,-, idcr ic'] I lie 1✓
the games of chan ce related to
The concept of prob ability originated in a strange manner in
r de Mere asked French mathe-
gambling. In 1654, a French nobl eman and gambler Chevalie
di5cusse d these problems with
matician BJ~;,-, Pd'-(al to solve certain dice problems. Pascal
l and Fermat .;olved the problems
another French ma thematician Pierre de h·rm tt. Both Pasca
ry.
independently. Their work was the beginnin g of probability theo
•
a
JlflJ(
Blaise Pascal (1623 -166?) Pieue de format ( 1601 -1665)
l X/.Jf )// /l) () /1I
, .
•1,, ili'IH''' '' whi ch ,·111 /.-. 111 .,~11111,· 711,•/I
rl,:fi11,•tl 1111/, ·0111, ·,.., (r1·H11//,c; ) i,c; en/l ed a ,,, r xpcnment.
.
fi,o mp les !
Tns.~i ng n t'din ,HH ' ,u· .'-lt' Vt•1· n l llnw s ls nn t_•x per irne nt.
( i)
of dil'C' one 1>r St' Vt• ro l lim eR is an
exp erim ent .
(1i) Thr ow ing n pnl r
n bng nr nn urn is nn exp e rim ent.
( iii) Drn win g (l bol l frnm
2. T, io l
'!, resu lts in one or several outcomes.
A tri,, l f... 1111 o<'f fi,il y f'l'l,l<Jr1111•d 011c,· wlii<
Ex ant pks :
Th
Tos sin g a coin 20 tim es are 20 trials
(i) To8~ing n coi n onc e is o tri al. · e possible
out con 1cs uf a tria l are H ea d a nd Tail.
· I Th
(it) Th row ing a die onc e js one trial. Thr ow ing a die 10 times are 10 tna s. e po 'b 881
le
5 and 6.
ou tco n1 E's of each tr.ial are 1, 2, 3, 4,
3. Random Experiment
in whi ch all the possible out com es (results) are known in advance but the exact result of
. erim
An exp . ent .
ed
.
is called a random experiment.
any specific tnal cannot be surely predict
ssi ng a coi n a num ber of tim es, thr ow ing a die a number of times are random
Examples: To
experiments.
4. Sample Space
set of all possible outcomes in an experiment is called its sample space.
The
Examples:
rol led , its faces can tur n up wit h any of the following six numbers:
(i) If a die is
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
a die is given by the set of all possible outcomes
He nce , the sample spa ce S for thr ow ing
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
ns are tos sed sim ult ane ous ly, any of the following four results is possible
(ii) If two coi
HH , HT , TH, TT [Here H = head, T == tail]
· 15· the set
ult ane ous toss of two cmns
He nce , the sam ple spa ce S for the sim
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
~ / ,.f' nf
f 'I'' 1111 111 1/ I t l1r II di ,I, ,,., 1 1 11 I I f 1/1 11 ti{ •1 1\IJ I( ·•, JI I f{II (>1 1 ,, /1111 1
11f 11,,. " 'l'n1111 .-,11
111 1•t•, •11 / /lll 1111 • I I (I
l ~;,rnplcl'I : .
thr ow oln ,1 n un ,l i,. r, " ( 11111, •,. ( ,1 ·t11n , < I H , t ( I 1n ,, p l1tt1 < u\;1 1 thr 11 •.-.J 1, 1 "''
(I) ~u pp .,., ,. '"' '
,1,
►, "
nn1 1 • h e id ,,., ,,n i l tnl l ,., Ml , • .,.. , . 11! W tlh nu t <,1rnl' l,1 \l
f' \ ' l' " ' ,, 11l , ( \llc n 1 1y, g0 t1i11g ,,
1
• .
,, ii ·• , i ps ( . . l
~ un J)l l ·" L' ,v, • 1h 1111 v ' ' • , 1 nu n, 11('r 1J( Hn 1m bt' r . I hl' n tlw , •v C'fl
(Ii) , ,.. nn n ,J nr g l'tl mv, nn f•v ,•n\ 1\1 .!
l •G - re<i<•n l(•d hy t.hl' f>1 •t
H Y 2 . 4 a 11d <' · lli'l 'i t ·V t ' t \ l ta n w r••p
fll
will t'\ lll '<i c. t ,)f th1 t'l' 1>1 1k\
l
'
I - 12 , 'I,(, I
a cr. s a nd Evan t
Exornples of So ,n ple Sµ , s
sorne
-- -
--
-R,111dom ~x p~ inw n l
Tossi ng n ~1)in
Tossi ng tw o coi n.<:
\HK t' S - Ill , Tl
Su n 1p ll• Spn, P
S ,c, IH I I, HT, TH , T fl
Ge tti ng ;:i
Ge ttin g on e hea d, E =
hr ad,
\} IT, T H \
tV( • n t
E ,.. IHI \
silllU lta neously
er, £ = n, 3, 5}
5 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Ge ttin g an od d nu mb
Throwi ng a die on ce
a thr ow ,
3,
S = IH HH, TH H, HT H,
HHT, Ge ttin g tw o he ad s in
Tossing th ree coins HI T, TH T, IT H, TIT\ E = \TH H, HT H, HH'T\
4. simu lta ne ou sly
on the tw o dic e
11 12 13 14 15 16 Ge ttin g sam e nu mb er
Tiu-ow ing two di ce 21 22 23 24 25 26 E = \11, 22 , 33, 44, 55, 66)
5. togeth er
31 32 33 34 35 36
S= 41 42 43 44 45 36
51 52 53 54 55 56
61 62 63 64 65 66
girl in a family ,
S = {BB, BH, GB, GG} Ha vin g one boy and one
Having two children E = {BG, GB)
6.
in a family
ic outcomes of
fin d tha t an ev en t is a collection of some specif
amples, we )I
NOTE . From the ab ov e ex the sa mp le sp ac e.
ev en t is a su bs et of
the experiment. Th us an
6_
Equally Likely Outcomes equally likely if the different outcomes have the same
om experiment are said to be
The results of a rand ou tco others.
me in preference to
reason to expe ct an
., there is no
(or equal) chance of occurrence i.e on e of th e tw o po ss ible ways either head
om. It can only la nd in
Suppose a coin is tossed at rand
up or tail up.
tco m e, he ad or tail, is as lik ely to occur as the other. We
at each ou
One can reasonably expect th .
ou tco m es head an d tail, are equally likely outcomes
say that the
ou tcom es ar e 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Each of those
ir die. The possible
Again, suppose we throw a fa outcom es 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 an d 6 of throwing a die an
of turning up. So the
numbers has the same chance
equally likely outcomes.
r. 7
L:J
7. Exhaustive Outcomes trial are its exhaustive outcomes.
tcomes of an experiment or a
The total number of all possible ou exhaustive events.
ample, when a die is thrown, there are in all six
ex
I 'vc O ul(0 l1lf' S
8. Mv!uolly Ex<. l'~ '111 , .... ,irl /c> /,l' 11111 /11nll11 ,·xcl usivc, if they cn nnot occu
• ,·.r1J1·,·1111 ('11 / o11 .•, .
7T1'I' ou tcc1111r ., ,,, ' . . t • ~ I t' itlw r lwnd or tt1 il w ill c1 ppear. They canno
r togeth
, dwn n coin t.'< n!-i!'> t L , t . er.
I N ,,,r,11111, /, , \ occur t
ogeth
F vouroble O ulco n1 cs ~t
9. .
a
• I1 . rn,,·., . . .,
u1/11d1 l'// ,., 111 t
'
iii .<' .,.11 rl'l' tl ( c'
,
4 011
en/led favourable outcomes t h
t·rw 11/, nn ·
1' • . • ,. , ,ulL'om e~ to thl:' ()CcurT encc of o t at
~, an,.p l(', tht:' favou1 t10 1< l ,m even numb er when a di' . event. t-
e is thro Wn ror
.J. or 6.
are~,
!,! \ I \ I,"·," Outcome ic;· th(• rL'"ult
'
nf an expc rirnl'nt or activit y.
Snmpl c Space is the scl nf "II possib le outco mes.
Event is llw sc i of some speci fi c outco mes.
E,re11n1cnto l \) l En~pirical Probabil ity
11,e p1'obab ility ~f t'1e occurrence of nn event is the ratio between the numbe
r of times th
the total nu mber of trials. The probabilities of event s which are based
on the e event occurs to
experiments and the recordings of the data ab out the occur
. . . . . . rence of the resu 1ts of actual
t'\PL'nmcntal or empmcal probab1hhcs. However, m this . . events are
chapter, we shall use t , called
for finding the experimental or empirical probability.
erm probability'
Probability of an Event
Suppose we perform an experiment. Let m be the number of times
an event 'E'
the total numb er of trials, then the probability of happening of
the event ,E' is de; ::~d n be
P(E) = Number of trials in which the event E happ ened= m
The total number of trials n
Clearly, 0 s; m s; n
Os; ms;l
n
⇒ 0 s; P( E) s; 1
Thus, the probability of an event lies between O and 1 (both O
and 1 inclusive).
Illust ratio n 1 Supp ose we toss a coin 50 times. In each toss,
it shows up either head or a tail.
Supp ose in 28 tosses, the outco me is head and in the rema ining
22 tosses, the outcome is tail.
Then, the probability of getting a head in each toss is
Num ber of times a head comes up 28 14
P (getting a head)
Total numb er of tosses of the coin 50 25
Also, the proba bility of getting a tail in each toss is
Num ber of times a tail comes up 22 11
p (getting a tail) = Total numb er of tosses of the coin= 50 = 25
. . E 45
Illus tratio n 2 Supp ose we throw a die 100 times . achf1me 1·ts u pper face shows 1, 2, 3, ,
or 6. Supp ose the die turns with even numb ers 2, 4, or 6 in
48 throws.
Then, the proba bility of getting an even numb er in a throw of
die is
48 12
p (getting an even numb er)=
100 25 ·
=
Even t
swre ,I rohirh always OCl' IU-5 111 an <'XJ'rT11 11(' ,r/ re: <.(11/r , / n 'il1rr
.
M!frrt or i r rtnm l"r rnl
;111 t•fl{'I • .
r robr1b1hty l)f the evPnl , ''crctti non •n nt1ml)(> r I~"" t)1an '7' ·
'1·1l:ith C
t us fl di e nrc marked w it h numlw rn I 2 3, 4' 5 one1 h, ,. t' ealh in a ~tngle thrnw of 3 <i ,,-,
Ll• · ~ of the , , numi·-- . l
,j'i face~ , . h ' wr LS ~ ., lh~n 7
f11C s , thro"'' a die, 1t 1s Rurc I o t Wf' get J numbe r lc~s ll 7
we - •. 1an .
\,VhCl1 Nu
ctting O nu m ber less than 7) = __ mber of fn voura_!?l e o~tc-~~ es _ 6
p (g N umber nf all possible ou tcomes - 6 -- 1
ti f pro/Jability of n sure or crrtai11 rvrn f is I .
f f'lUS, I
•ble Event .
poss1
1f11 f which can never ocrn r 111 rm rxpe ri111cnf is en/led n11 impossible eve-n1.
A I even
' fi nd the probab. ility of the event getting a nu mber '8' in a single th row of a di e. As no
et us . . .
L
f
·e is marked v,11 th numbe r 8, so gettmg 8 in a single throw of ad ie s
•
' 1· imposs ible.
. the d 1
race 0 . B) Number of cases favourable to 8 = O
tting num b e1 - =0
P(ge Number of all possibl e cases 6
e probability of an impossible even t is 0.
fhUS, tl1
e defined the probability of the occurrence of an event E as
we hav
P( E) = Number of cases favourable to E
Number of all possible outcomes
·, a tor.
bove expression, the numerator is always less than or equal to the denomm
In the a
the probability P( E) of any event E is such that
'fherefore, 0 ~ P(E) ~l
We can represent the probabilities on a number line, as shown below.
?
~
An unlikely event would hav~ a
1
2
A likely event would have a
probability between ½ and 1, i.e.,
probability between Oand -½, ,. e.,
somewhere here.
somewhere here.
❖ Probability is Ofor an irnpo!;sibl~ C\ u1t.
❖ Probability is 1 for a cert.iii e\ rnt.
I
❖ Probability is ~ for an e\ en Lh,, n(l ,
2
(For example, getting a head when we toss an unbiased coin has an even chance.)
Elementary Event
An event having only one outcome of the experiment is called an elementary eYent.
An event having more than one outcome of the experiment is called a rnmp\.1imd t)Yent.
han<:L
, In a throw of a die 'The event of getting number 4' is an elementary event. On the oiher
The event of getting an even number (2, 4 or 6)' is a compound event.
' . d
ln O toS!-of n coi n, th C' eve nts o f ,gc,u· w n hco d an 'vc
n
tlin ~ a tail' are ele me ntary
\l r event
nHl )' be noH' d tha t s, lt
. . .
Sim 1la rly, m A th row of a d1c, th e, l ,vci,ts of get tin g nu m bers 'l' , '2' ' '3' , '4'
, ' 5' and , ,
ele me ntary eve nts. 6 ar~
Moreover,
1 1 1 1 1 1
P(l ) + P(2) + P(3) + P( 4) + P(5
) + P(6 ) = 6+ 6+ 6+ 6+ 6+ 6= l
Th us, tlte sum of the probalii/ it-ie
s of all the elementary events
of an experiment is 1.
Co mp lem en t of an event. Giv
en the event E . The eve nt wh
E do ~ not occur is called eve ich occurs when, and only Wh
nt 'no t E' or com ple ment of eve
and E are also called n11111-~ knw nt E an d is den ote d by E. The eve
n tm-y (' vcn n~~,£
h.
In a sin gle thr ow of a die, sup po
se tha t
E =the event of getting a nu mb
er s 4 ={l, 2, 3, 4}
Th en, no t E = the event of getting a
nu mb er> 4 = {5, 6}
Here, P(E)+ P(not E) =- 4 2 -
+- =l or P(E)+ P(E )= l
6 6
It is tru e for any eve nt E tha t
P(E) = 1- p( E)
Some Im po rta nt Results
1. Probability of a sur e ev en
t =1
2. Probability of an impossible
even t = 0
3. The su m of the probabilities
of all the ele me nta ry eve nts
of an experiment is 1.
4. For an y ev en t E,
(a) 0 s P( E) s 1
(b) P( E) =l -P (E )
(c) P( E) = 1- P( E)
(d) P( E)+ P(E) = 1
So I v e d E x a m p le s
Example 1 Eleven bags of whea
t flour, each marked 5 kg, actua
weights of flour (in kg) : lly contained the following
4.97 5.05 5.08 5.03 5.00 5.06
5.08 4.98 5.04 5.07 5.00
Find the probability that any of
these bags chosen at random conta
ins more than 5 kg of flour.
[NCERT1
Solution. Total number of bags =
11
Number of bags containing more
than 5 kg of flour = 7
P (a bag contains> 5 kg of flo
ur)
Number of bags containing more
= than 5 kg of flour = '!__ .
To tal nu mb er of ba gs
11
Example 4 Two coins are tossed simult
One head: 275 times, No head: 120 ti aneoF~sly 500 times, and w "
mes. ind the b e get Tw h
events. pro ability of occu o eads: 105 tirnes
• rrence of each of t ,
Solution. Let E1 = event of getting two heads . hese
, E2 == event of . i\Ct ✓1 ·
E3 = event of getting no head gelting one head
Total number of trails =500
Probability of the event of getting two heads,
- Number of times two heads come up 105
P(E 1 ) - =-= 021
Total number of trails 500 ·
Probability of the event of getting one head,
p E _ Number of times one head co~es up = 275 =0.55
( 2) - Total number of trails 500
Probability of the event of getting no head,
Number of times no head comes up = 120 =0.24.
P( E3) = Total number of trails 500
REMARKS .
es of each trial. jl
1. Here Ei, I; and ½ are all the possible outcom
2. P(Ei) + P( I;)+ P( ½) = 0.21 + 0.55+ 0.24 = 1.
