Name: _____________________ CB 8
What is Your Favorite Color M&M? Part 1
The company that makes milk chocolate M&Ms claims the following distribution:
13% Brown, 14% Yellow, 20% Orange, 16% Green, 24% Blue, and 13% Red. Is this true?
1. Take a class sample and record the results:
Observed values: Brown:_____ Yellow:_____ Orange:_____ Green:_____ Blue:_____ Red:_____
Total number of M&Ms:_______
2. As a class, write down hypotheses for a significance test.
H0:
Ha:
3. Let’s suppose that M&Ms claimed distribution is correct. If they are correct, how many of each
color would we expect to get in our sample.
Expected counts: Brown:_____ Yellow:_____ Orange:_____ Green:_____ Blue:_____ Red:_____
4. Use the table to calculate the test statistic.
Observed Expected (Observed − Expected)2
Counts Counts (Observed − Expected) (Observed − Expected)2 Expected
Brown
Yellow
Orange
Green
Blue
Red
Add up all the numbers in the last column. This is our chi-square test statistic: 𝜒 ! = ________________
5. What value would we get for the test statistic if our sample was very close to what is expected?
Explain.
6. What value would we get for the test statistic if our sample was very far from what is expected?
Explain.
Lesson 12.1 – Introduction to Chi-Square Tests
QuickNotes
Check Your Understanding
Are births equally likely across the days of the week? A random sample of 150 births give the following
sample distribution:
Day Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
Count 11 27 23 26 21 29 13
a. State the appropriate hypotheses.
b. Calculate the expected count for each day.
c. Calculate the value of the chi-square test statistic.
d. How many degrees of freedom for this chi-square test?
e. Find the p-value. What conclusion can you make?
What is Your Favorite Color M&M? Part 2
The company that makes milk chocolate M&Ms claims the following distribution:
13% Brown, 14% Yellow, 20% Orange, 16% Green, 24% Blue, and 13% Red. Is this true?
1. Record the information from the previous lesson.
Observed: Brown:_____ Yellow:_____ Orange:_____ Green:_____ Blue:_____ Red:_____
Expected: Brown:_____ Yellow:_____ Orange:_____ Green:_____ Blue:_____ Red:_____. χ = _______
2
CHOOSE: Choose the inference procedure and set it up.
Choose procedure: Significance level:
Parameter: Statistic:
Hypotheses: Evidence for Ha:
CHECK: Check the appropriate conditions
Random:
10%:
Large counts:
(all expected > 5?)
CALCULATE: If conditions are met, perform the calculations
General Formula: Picture:
Specific Formula:
Plug in numbers:
Test statistic:
p-value:
CONCLUDE: Make a conclusion in the context of the problem.
Lesson 12.2 – Chi-Square Test for Goodness of Fit
QuickNotes
Check Your Understanding
A traffic light is set up to provide a red light 80% of the time, yellow 5% of the time, and green 15% of the
time. A local resident is suspicious that the light is not functioning according to the claimed distribution. He
sets up a trail camera and programs it to take a picture of the light at 200 randomly selected times
throughout the day. Here are the results: Red: 173, Yellow: 13, and Green: 14.
a. Is there convincing statistical evidence that the light is not functioning according to the claimed
distribution? Use 𝛼 = 0.01.
Will You Get Accepted to College?
For many of the major universities, applicants are either accepted, denied, or waitlisted. A random
sample of 200 applicants from the University of Michigan and a separate random sample of 150
applicants from Ohio State were selected and their admission decision was recorded.
1. The table shows the results. Find the totals.
Observed Counts: University
Michigan Ohio State Total
Admission Accepted 31 74
Decision Denied 114 66
Waitlisted 55 10
Total
2. How many samples were selected? What populations are they selected from?
3. How many variables are we measuring? Explain.
4. As a class, write down hypotheses for a significance test.
H0:
Ha:
5. Overall, what is the acceptance rate for all students in the samples?
6. Find the expected counts, assuming the null hypothesis is true.
Expected Counts: University
Michigan Ohio State Total
Admission Accepted 105
Decision Denied 180
Waitlisted 65
Total 200 150 350
7. Is there convincing statistical evidence of a difference in the distribution of admission decision
for the University of Michigan and Ohio State University?
CHOOSE: Choose the inference procedure and set it up.
Choose procedure: 𝜒 ! test for homogeneity Significance level: 𝛼 = 0.05
Hypotheses: H0: There is no difference in the distribution of admission decision for University of
Michigan and Ohio State University.
Ha: There is a difference in the distribution of admission decision for University of
Michigan and Ohio State University.
CHECK: Check the appropriate conditions
Random:
10%:
Large counts:
CALCULATE: If conditions are met, perform the calculations
Specific Formula: Picture:
Plug in numbers:
Test statistic:
p-value:
CONCLUDE: Make a conclusion in the context of the problem.
8. Explain how this test is different from a chi-square test for goodness of fit?
Lesson 12.3 – Chi-Square Test for Homogeneity
QuickNotes
Check Your Understanding
A high school counselor selects a random sample of 25 freshmen, 25 sophomores, 25 juniors, and 25
seniors from East Kentwood High School. Each student was asked if they have started planning for
college. Here are the results:
Grade Level
Freshman Sophomore Junior Senior
College Yes 3 12 14 15
Planning? No 22 13 11 10
Is there convincing statistical evidence that there is a difference in the distribution of college planning
across the four grade levels?
1. State the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Show the calculation for the expected count of Seniors who have started college planning. Then
calculate all the expected counts and put them in the table.
Freshman Sophomore Junior Senior
Yes
No
3. Calculate the value of the chi-square test statistic.
Are Taco Tongue and Evil Eyebrow Independent?
Is there an association between the Taco Tongue and the Evil Eyebrow? The two-way table shows
the results from a random sample of 600 Senior students. Is there convincing statistical evidence
that the ability to do the Taco Tongue and Evil Eyebrow are associated for all Seniors?
1. Calculate the expected counts (assuming there is no association).
Observed: Expected:
2. How many samples? How many variables?
3. Perform a significance test.
CHOOSE: Choose the inference procedure and set it up.
Choose procedure: Significance level:
Hypotheses:
CHECK: Check the appropriate conditions
Random:
10%:
Large counts:
CALCULATE: If conditions are met, perform the calculations
Specific Formula: Picture:
Plug in numbers:
Test statistic:
p-value:
CONCLUDE: Make a conclusion in the context of the problem.
Lesson 12.4 – Chi-Square Test for Independence
QuickNotes
Check Your Understanding
For each of the following situations decide what type of chi square test is appropriate. Explain.
1. A random sample of 200 students was asked to sample a new type of pizza that the school was
considering using as a replacement for the current pizza. Each student stated if they were a freshman,
sophomore, junior, or senior and also if they liked the new pizza more than the current pizza (or not).
The school would like to know if there is an association between grade level and pizza opinion.
2. Another school is also considering changing their pizza vendor. This school selects separate random
samples of 50 freshmen, 50 sophomores, 50 juniors, and 50 seniors. Each student tries the new pizza
and states whether they like it more than the current pizza (or not). The school would like to know if the
distribution of opinion differs across the grade levels.
3. A large pizza chain claims that 30% of orders are placed on Fridays, 20% are placed on Saturdays, and
10% of orders are placed on each of the other days of the week. A local franchise owner wants to
determine if this is true for her store. She selects a random sample of 300 orders from the past year and
classifies each one according to the day of the week the order was placed. She wants to know if the
distribution of days for her store is the different than the claimed distribution for the whole pizza chain.
The 4C Method for Inference: Significance Tests
CHOOSE: Choose the inference procedure and set it up.
Choose procedure: Significance level:
Parameter: Statistic:
Hypotheses: Evidence for Ha:
CHECK: Check the appropriate conditions
CALCULATE: If conditions are met, perform the calculations
General Formula: Picture:
Specific Formula:
Plug in numbers:
Test statistic:
P-value:
CONCLUDE: Make a conclusion in the context of the problem.
Formulas and Tables for AP Statistics
I. Descriptive Statistics
1 ∑ xi 1 2 ∑ ( xi − x )2
x = ∑ xi = s=
x ∑ ( xi − x )=
n n n −1 n −1
ŷ= a + bx y= a + bx
1 x − x yi − y sy
=r ∑ i b=r
n − 1 s x s y sx
II. Probability and Distributions
P ( A ∩ B)
P ( A ∪ B )= P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B ) P ( A | B) =
P ( B)
Probability Distribution Mean Standard Deviation
µ X = E ( X ) = ∑ xi P ( xi ) 2
Discrete random variable, X σ X = ∑ ( xi − µ X ) P ( xi )
If 𝑋𝑋 has a binomial distribution
with parameters n and p, then:
µ X = np σX
= np (1 − p )
n
P( X= x= ) p x (1 − p )n − x
x
where x = 0, 1, 2, 3, , n
If 𝑋𝑋 has a geometric distribution
1 1− p
with parameter p, then: µX = σX =
p p
P ( X= x= ) (1 − p ) x −1 p
where x = 1, 2, 3,
III. Sampling Distributions and Inferential Statistics
statistic − parameter
Standardized test statistic:
standard error of the statistic
Confidence interval: statistic ± ( critical value )( standard error of statistic )
( observed − expected ) 2
Chi-square statistic: χ 2 = ∑ expected
AP Statistics 2020 Formulas and Tables Sheet
Probability p
Table entry for p is the point
( 2 ) with probability p lying
above it.
(χ2 )
Table C c 2 critical values
Tail probability p
df .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 .025 .02 .01 .005 .0025 .001 .0005
1 1.32 1.64 2.07 2.71 3.84 5.02 5.41 6.63 7.88 9.14 10.83 12.12
2 2.77 3.22 3.79 4.61 5.99 7.38 7.82 9.21 10.60 11.98 13.82 15.20
3 4.11 4.64 5.32 6.25 7.81 9.35 9.84 11.34 12.84 14.32 16.27 17.73
4 5.39 5.99 6.74 7.78 9.49 11.14 11.67 13.28 14.86 16.42 18.47 20.00
5 6.63 7.29 8.12 9.24 11.07 12.83 13.39 15.09 16.75 18.39 20.51 22.11
6 7.84 8.56 9.45 10.64 12.59 14.45 15.03 16.81 18.55 20.25 22.46 24.10
7 9.04 9.80 10.75 12.02 14.07 16.01 16.62 18.48 20.28 22.04 24.32 26.02
8 10.22 11.03 12.03 13.36 15.51 17.53 18.17 20.09 21.95 23.77 26.12 27.87
9 11.39 12.24 13.29 14.68 16.92 19.02 19.68 21.67 23.59 25.46 27.88 29.67
10 12.55 13.44 14.53 15.99 18.31 20.48 21.16 23.21 25.19 27.11 29.59 31.42
11 13.70 14.63 15.77 17.28 19.68 21.92 22.62 24.72 26.76 28.73 31.26 33.14
12 14.85 15.81 16.99 18.55 21.03 23.34 24.05 26.22 28.30 30.32 32.91 34.82
13 15.98 16.98 18.20 19.81 22.36 24.74 25.47 27.69 29.82 31.88 34.53 36.48
14 17.12 18.15 19.41 21.06 23.68 26.12 26.87 29.14 31.32 33.43 36.12 38.11
15 18.25 19.31 20.60 22.31 25.00 27.49 28.26 30.58 32.80 34.95 37.70 39.72
16 19.37 20.47 21.79 23.54 26.30 28.85 29.63 32.00 34.27 36.46 39.25 41.31
17 20.49 21.61 22.98 24.77 27.59 30.19 31.00 33.41 35.72 37.95 40.79 42.88
18 21.60 22.76 24.16 25.99 28.87 31.53 32.35 34.81 37.16 39.42 42.31 44.43
19 22.72 23.90 25.33 27.20 30.14 32.85 33.69 36.19 38.58 40.88 43.82 45.97
20 23.83 25.04 26.50 28.41 31.41 34.17 35.02 37.57 40.00 42.34 45.31 47.50
21 24.93 26.17 27.66 29.62 32.67 35.48 36.34 38.93 41.40 43.78 46.80 49.01
22 26.04 27.30 28.82 30.81 33.92 36.78 37.66 40.29 42.80 45.20 48.27 50.51
23 27.14 28.43 29.98 32.01 35.17 38.08 38.97 41.64 44.18 46.62 49.73 52.00
24 28.24 29.55 31.13 33.20 36.42 39.36 40.27 42.98 45.56 48.03 51.18 53.48
25 29.34 30.68 32.28 34.38 37.65 40.65 41.57 44.31 46.93 49.44 52.62 54.95
26 30.43 31.79 33.43 35.56 38.89 41.92 42.86 45.64 48.29 50.83 54.05 56.41
27 31.53 32.91 34.57 36.74 40.11 43.19 44.14 46.96 49.64 52.22 55.48 57.86
28 32.62 34.03 35.71 37.92 41.34 44.46 45.42 48.28 50.99 53.59 56.89 59.30
29 33.71 35.14 36.85 39.09 42.56 45.72 46.69 49.59 52.34 54.97 58.30 60.73
30 34.80 36.25 37.99 40.26 43.77 46.98 47.96 50.89 53.67 56.33 59.70 62.16
40 45.62 47.27 49.24 51.81 55.76 59.34 60.44 63.69 66.77 69.70 73.40 76.09
50 56.33 58.16 60.35 63.17 67.50 71.42 72.61 76.15 79.49 82.66 86.66 89.56
60 66.98 68.97 71.34 74.40 79.08 83.30 84.58 88.38 91.95 95.34 99.61 102.7
80 88.13 90.41 93.11 96.58 101.9 106.6 108.1 112.3 116.3 120.1 124.8 128.3
100 109.1 111.7 114.7 118.5 124.3 129.6 131.1 135.8 140.2 144.3 149.4 153.2
AP Statistics 2020 Formulas and Tables Sheet
