Macroeconomics - Revision Simplified!
Macroeconomics - Revision Simplified!
1. Introduction to Macroeconomics
1. Drawing a line between macro and microeconomics
In macroeconomics, we typically assume that most details of resource allocation and income
distribution are of secondary importance to the study of the overall rates of inflation and
unemployment.
Foundations of Aggregation
The composition of supply & demand in various markets is of little consequence for the
economy-wide issues of growth, inflation and unemployment.
Aggregate supply and aggregate demand relate domestic product (”GDP” or “Y” → On the
horizontal axis) to the price level (”P” on the vertical axis).
Aggregate demand (AD) = quantity of domestic product that is demanded at each possible
price level.
Aggregate supply (AS) = quantity of domestic product that is supplied at each possible price
level.
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An economy slipping
Economic Growth →
into a recession
2 Interpretations of a Shift in the Demand Curve Usually both supply &
demand increase which
means an increase in
price & quantity (however
q usually has a faster
increase than p)
Nominal GDP (GDP in current euros) → values each good and service at
the price at which it was actually sold during the year.
📌 Only final goods & services produced within the year produced within the
geographic boundaries of the Eurozone (or the country considered)
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Limitations of the GDP : What it is Not
It only includes market activities (”declared transactions” excluding black market, private
transactions, illegal ones)
It counts “bads” as well as “goods” (bad actions such as killing animals for example)
It does not deduct ecological costs of economic activity (for example cutting down a park
increases GDP because of the workers needed, and then if you put a parking lot instead for
example, it increases your GDP once again).
Potential GDP : The Real GDP that the economy could produce if the
labour force and other resources were fully employed.
⚠ Be cautious about the meaning of “fully employed” here! Employment rate → NAIRU
(Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) does not cause raise of salaries
meaning inflation.
📌 Macroeconmic policy aims to raise the potential GDP and to minimise the output gap
→ that is the difference between potential & nominal GDP.
*Output Gap : the difference between what an economy actually produces and what it
would produce in an ideal world
→ When the GDP is too high, there is a waste of materials and then there is a big drop, growing
too fast is essentially a waste. What is wanted is growth of potential GDP not real GDP.
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5. The Capacity to Produce : Potential GDP
The growth rate of the labour force ( ⚠ could mean immigration, but also labour force ≠
population, as children and retired people for example don’t work).
The growth rate of the nation’s capital stock ( ⚠production tools needed to work
efficiently, don’t confuse with money)
→ Unemployment entails a loss in output for the society as a whole, a loss that can never be
recovered.
7. Types of Unemployment
It was once thought that 4% was a good target in the US. In several EU countries, full
employment is assumed to be reached when the unemployment rate is around 8%.
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📌 Macroeconomics policy aims to make the unemployment rate as close as possible to
the NAIRU and to reduce the NAIRU.
The costs of inflation are less obvious than those of unemployment, yet people certainly fear
it.
Inflation and Real Wages → Inflation does not typically erode real wages, because in
nominal wages compensate for the rising prices.
*Real Wages : income expressed in terms of purchasing power as opposed to actual money
received.
*Nominal Wages : wages measured in money as distinct from actual purchasing power.
Because inflation does not proceed evenly, it redistributes income & wealth in arbitrary,
unfair ways.
It systematically discriminates against people on fixed incomes, and it may favour borrowers
at the expense of lender.
Inflation that is accurately anticipated (π^e) needs not redistribute wealth between borrowers
and lenders.
The nominal interest rate will include an adequate inflation premium, above the real
interest rate.
Nut, if the actual inflation rate turns out to be different from the expected rate anticipated, then
redistribution will occur.
Inflation may impose real costs on shoppers, whose level of information about relative
prices deteriorates.
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Inflation creates fewer social problems if :
The total amount that all customers, business firms, and government
agencies are willing to spend on final goods & services.
📌 AD = C (Y - T) + I + G + X - IM
*C → Consumption
*(Y - T) → Net income / Disposable income
*I → Investment
*G → Government expenditure
*X → Exports
*IM → Imports
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The total amount spent by consumers on newly produced goods and
services (excluding purchases of new homes, which are considered
investment goods)
⚠ Second hand & reselling does not count, because the house can be built
before that year.
The sum of the expenditures of business firms on new plant and equipment
and households on new homes. Financial “investments” are not included,
nor are resales of existing physical assets.
The difference between the country’s exports and imports. It indicates the
difference between what we sell to foreigners and what we buy from them.
2. Consumption Function
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When the data is converted into a consumption function (linear function) diagram - with
income on 1 axis and consumption on the other - the relationship between real consumer
spending and real disposable income is almost linear, here with a slope of about 0.7.
Price level (price increases but doesn’t change income → lower consumption)
Expectations of future income (income lowers but price stays the same → lower
consumptions)
3. Equilibrium GDP
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The equilibrium level of GDP on the demand side is the one at which total
spending = production.
In such situations, firms find their inventories remaining at desired levels, so
there is no incentive to change output or prices.
Equilibrium = producing as much as we consume.
The “income-expenditure” diagram or “45 degree line” diagram show the equilibrium level of
GDP.
All other levels of GDP are disequilibrium points, at which GDP will move in the direction of the
equilibrium.
The multiplier is greater than 1 because one person’s spending is another person’s
income → when you buy something, you give them your income, which in return becomes
their income.
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An increase in spending = an increase in income
A portion of the increase in income is spent on consumption, creating more income, which
in turn creates more consumption spending, and so on.
📌 Multiplier = 1 / (1 - MPC)
International trade
Inflation
Income taxation
Therefore, an increase in price level = a decrease level of real aggregate quantity demanded.
The negatively-sloped AD curve shows all the equilibria of price levels and GDP.
💡 Remember that any income-expenditure diagram is drawn for a specific price level.
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6. The Multiplier & the AD Curve
Firms normally can purchase labour and other inputs at prices that are fixed for some period
of time.
Change in costs of production = shifts in the AS curve (towards the left if there is an
increase of costs & towards the right if there is a decrease of costs).
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Interest rate
Material prices
Improvements in technology
Increases in productivity
2. Equilibrium of AD and AS
Short run : AS-AD equilibrium may or may not equal to full employment GDP
A recessionary gap occurs when a country's real GDP is lower than its GDP if the
economy was operating at full employment.
An inflationary gap exists when the demand for goods and services exceeds
production due to factors such as higher levels of overall employment, increased trade
activities, or elevated government expenditure.
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Equilibrium GDP = Potential GDP.
There are several possible reasons why wages are so sticky in the downward direction :
Institutional rigidies
Psychological resistance
But many people believe that government intervention should help speed up the process.
Employment falls
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*Money Wages are the amount of money that
someone is paid for work they have done, without
considering the amount of goods it can buy
The stagflation that follows a period of excessive AD is comparatively benign ; output is falling,
but it is still above potential GDP.
Independent shifts inward of the supply curve are another source of stagflation.
*Stagflation : persistent high inflation combined with
high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country's economy.
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Since the economy’s self-correcting mechanism sometimes works slowly, there is room for
government stabilisation policy to improve the workings of the free market.
4. Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy refers to the use of government spending and tax policies
to influence economic conditions, especially macroeconomic conditions.
These include aggregate demand for goods and services, employment,
inflation, and economic growth.
→ During a recession, the government may lower tax rates or increase spending to encourage
demand and spur economic activity. Conversely, to combat inflation, it may raise rates or cut
spending to cool down the economy.
→ Fiscal policy is often contrasted with monetary policy, which is enacted by central bankers and
not elected government officials.
Fixed taxes (= taxes that do not vary with GDP) → implies a parallel shift down in the
consumption function
→ Fixed taxes : when increase or decrease there is a shift up and down
Variable taxes (= taxes that vary with GDP) → flatten the consumption schedule
→ Variable taxes : when increase or decrease there is a rotation of the slope (flatter or
steeper)
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Larger government purchases of goods and
services = higher total spending directly through
the G component of C + I + G + (X - IM).
Note that variable income tax reduces the multiplier, because it flattens the expenditure line on
the expenditure schedule.
Automatic stabilisers
Unemployment insurance
G affects AD directly
If G & T increase by the same amount, the effects do not cancel out.
Because G’s multiplier is larger, the net effect will be an increase in GDP
Moral : fiscal policies that keep the deficit (G - T) constant do not keep AD constant.
If spending increases are financed by tax increases, the economy will expand.
If tax cuts are financed by spending cuts, the economy will contract.
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Government transfer payments
Higher G
Lower T
Lower G
Higher T
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5. Some Harsh Realities
Economists have only an uncertain knowledge of the value of the multiplier and the full-
employment level of GDP
The crowding out effect is an economic theory arguing that rising public
sector spending drives down or even eliminates private sector spending.
The public sector is the part of the economy owned, managed and
controlled by government or government bodies, while the private sector is
owned, managed and controlled by individuals or private companies.
7. Quantitative Easing
Quantitative easing creates new bank reserves, providing banks with more
liquidity and encouraging lending and investment. In the United States,
the Federal Reserve implements QE policies.
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*Security refers to a fungible, negociable financial instrument that holds
some type of monetary value. A security can represent ownership in a
corporation in the form of stock, a creditor relationship with a governmental
body or a corporation represented by owning that entity’s bond ; or rights to
ownership as represented by an option.
*Liquidity refers to the efficiency or ease with which an asset or security
can be converted into ready cash without affecting its market price. The
most liquid asset of all is cash itself.
→ To execute quantitative easing, central banks buy government bonds and other securities,
injecting bank reserves into the economy. Increasing the supply of money lowers interest
rates further and provides liquidity to the banking system, allowing banks to lend with easier terms.
Money greases the wheels of exchange and, thus, makes the whole economy more
productive.
💡 The primary difference between barter and currency systems is that a currency system
uses an agreed-upon form of paper or coin money as an exchange system rather than
directly trading goods and services through bartering
Medium of exchange
Unit of account
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Store of value
Societies have gradually moved from the use of commodity money (it consists of objects
having value or use in themselves (intrinsic value) as well as their value in buying goods,
such as gold or silver coins) to the use of money that has no commodity backing at all (so
for example paper money).
There is no single, obvious place to draw the line between “money” and “near money”.
Money includes cash in hand or cash in the bank that can be obtained
on demand for use as a medium of transactional exchange. Near
money requires some time to cash conversion. Individuals & businesses
need to have cash money available to meet immediate obligations. An
example of near money can be a savings account.
→ In the Eurozone :
M3 = M2 + repurchase agreements, money market fund shares / units and debt securities
with a maturity of up to 2 years.
Fractional reserve banking began when goldsmiths realised they could profitably lend out a
portion of the gold that had been deposited with them for safekeeping.
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in liquid assets as a reserve, and are at liberty to lend the remainder to
borrowers.
Bank profitability
Exposure to bank runs (it occurs when many clients withdraw their money from a bank,
because they believe it may cease to function in the near future.)
But because the business is risky, the same banker must also emphasise safety.
Bank Regulation
Deposit insurance → The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insures people’s deposits
at banks.
Bank supervision
Reserve requirements
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Asset : brings the bank money
Liability : costs the bank money
Banks can lend money in their vault that is above the minimum required reserve ratio. In doing
so, they create new money.
When all banks make loans with funds they have that are above the required reserve ratio, the
society’s money supply expands.
Deposits, and with them the money supply, contract when reserves are reduced.
Calculation of the contraction in the money supply utilises the same formula as for money
expansion.
→ When you withdraw your money from the bank or the atm, it comes from the reserves.
Individuals hold some portion of additions to their money in the form of cash.
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Reduce the money supply in a recession
One reason for monetary policy, therefore, is to prevent this behaviour on the part of banks.
6. Monetary Policy
Open market operations → an activity by a central bank to give liquidity in its currency to a
bank or a group of banks.
Lending to banks
Changing the reserve requirements (reserves : minimal amounts of cash that banks are
required to keep on hand in case of unexpected demand)
The ECB can increase the money supply by buying government securities on the open
market (government securities = bonds issued by the government)
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In simple terms, a bond is loan from an investor to a borrower such
as a company or government. The borrower uses the money to fund
its operations, and the investor receives interest on the investment. The
market value of a bond can change over time.
Securities are 2 things : stocks & bonds (bonds are debt instruments issued by the
borrower → companies of governments).
The main difference between stocks and bonds is that stocks give you
partial ownership in a corporation, while bonds are a loan from you
to a company or government.
Lending to Banks
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The ECB sets 3 interest rates every 6 weeks :
The main refinancing operations (MRO) rate is the interest rate banks pay when they
borrow money from the ECB for 1 week.
The marginal lending facility rate is the interest rate banks pay when they borrow from
the ECB overnight.
The deposit facility rate is the interest banks receive for depositing money with the
central bank overnight. Since June 2014, this rate has been negative.
Higher reserves
Higher loans
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💡 Since Jan 2012, the min reserve requirements imposed to financial institutions in
the eurozone is 1% of their deposits with a maturity up to 2 years.
*Maturity or maturity date is the date on which the final payment is due on a loan or
other financial instrument
However, the ECB can shift the relationship between the money supply and interest
rates by employing any of its principal weapons of monetary control.
Open-market operations
Higher spending
Negatively sloped
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💡 Nominal GDP reflects the raw numbers in current dollars unadjusted for inflation. Real
GDP adjusts the numbers by fixing the currency value, thus eliminating any distortion
caused by inflation or deflation.
The ECB can lower (raise) interest rates by increasing (reducing) the money supply.
Of the 4 components of AD, investment and net exports are the most sensitive to monetary
policy.
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Here, we assume that net exports (X - IM) are fixed.
ECB actions :
Note that an expansionary monetary policy causes some inflation under normal
circumstances.
ECB policy :
M&r
AD
Y&P
The Inflationary Effects of Expansionary Policy
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Both output prices are normally affected by
monetary policy.
Lower investment
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