The intraday session manipulation/distribution
model coupled with intrahour cycles
Main focus:
3 manipulation/distribution time windows during the day:
Main focus of this model are 3 key times: 3:00,10:00,14:00 New
York Time. Do not use this model if the manipulation phase
creates a run in the direction of HTF bias and not yet hit the HTF
level before key distribution time, in this case the distribution
phase can be continuation, not the reversal.
London session:
- with this model, focus on 2:00 open creating a false run in one direction
as manipulation/post 3:00 - distribution in opposing direction.
- Reversal should start from some key HTF PD Array such as
NWOG/IMB/OB.
- if you cant find one, do not take the trade
NY AM Session:
9:30 Equity open
- many times the volatility is used as the manipulation phase of am
session. Post 10:00 used as the distribution phase in other direction.
NY PM Session:
13:30 open
- expect false run above below IRL as manipulation. 14:30 often used as
a start of the distribution.
Model95 - intrahour cycle entry model using
specific minutes in the hour
Main focus:
Based on my own observations, the overall lower time frame market
structure is being built by a set of buy/sell programs that many times
start at the same times. The same minutes in the hour can be used as
manipulation or distribution programs, buy or sell programs,
continuation/consolidation or reversal programs etc. It takes knowing
the current market dynamics and current session to know how next
time based buy/sell program will look.
3 main cycles:
15th, 30th, 50th minute of an hour. Many hours in the day often present an
opportunity to catch reversals in these key times of an hour.
Overall it is better to use this logic during the 3 main distribution cycles
mentioned in the first page. Outside the distribution cycles, it is better to use
these only for intrahour scalps or setups with close proximity targets.
Important confluences:
1h open price - acting as a midpoint between hourly premium/discount.
Broken swing before every new buy/sell program
- acting as a fake sentiment shift + liquidity boost for HFT algorithms
before every new price swing. Wait for price to take out near swing low if
bullish/near swing high if bearish before starting a new program.
30th minute reversals
- if the price is outside the IRL/ERL at around 30th minute of an hour
and if the HTF bias confirms reversal idea - the 30th minute is a higher
probability reversal
15th minute manipulation/30th minute distribution pattern
- often price will create the scenario of 15th minute - start of
manipulation buy/sell program, then 30th minute - start of
distribution buy/sell program + can many times couple with 50th
minute continuation.
Market maker models coupled with time
- If the 2nd stage Market Maker Buy/Sell model is in line with one of these
3 intrahour cycles, it often plays out as high probability setup.
Market maker sell model
Market maker buy model
Broken trendline fakeout
- algorithm tends to create a market structure supported by trendline to
use that later as manipulation. If it happens in specific minute, it can be
used as higher probability setup.
Chart patterns used as manipulation
- one of the most effective method of a market manipulation and
liquidity invitation. Patterns. Most often, they use things as bull/bear
flag, head and shoulders, wedges, breakouts etc.
- They usually couple that with intrahour/session
manipulation/distribution cycles.
Falling wedge
Bull-flag
Double-Top
- many times created before the reversals to engineer more liquidity
Double/tripple bottom
- same principle as double top
Other useful models coupled with time
Accumulation, manipulation, distribution (AMD)
- better to use with HTF bias, sometimes the distribution can start right from
accumulation, without the manipulation. In that case, can anticipate price to respect
first ob above 50% of accumulation after retesting it
New Week Opening Gap + EHPDA Indicator
- NWOG is a difference in price between fridays close and sundays
open - important institutional points of interest (fair value)
- can be used in many ways/times/combinations. I use it most of the
time as entry point and target
- you can use it as a precise entry point most of the times in HTF
MMXM models, coupled with intraday manipulation/distribution
cycles + using 95 as entry mechanism
- EHPDA - Event Horizon PD Array - levels constructed from the
average between neigbhoring NWOGs and NDOGs (New Day
Opening Gap)
- personally have past 25 NWOGs opened on separate chart, same
with NDOGs but not using them as much as NWOGs
- can be used as dynamic
support and resistance for
swing trades/intraweek trades
- often presents a opportunity
for high RR trades
- EHPDA - using as confluence only
if timing is right, offers great
confluence many times tho
- NWOG coupled with intrahour cycles used as entry point :
- NWOG coupled with intrahour cycles used target/reversal point
Optimal Trade Entry (OTE)
- better to couple that with previous cycles
- if previous macro started manipulation into OTE and HTF bias
supports the idea of reversal, OTE coupled with 95 can be high
probability setup
Bullsih OTE
Bearish OTE
Secondary time cycles
- based on my observations there are 3 other/less important time
cycles going on
- they often start at 2nd, 12th and 40th minute
- often used for building a market structure before the
manipulation/distribution cycle
- better to use for scalps only, for longer setups only coupled with
HTF PD Array + clear bias
