IPE 317
Introduction to Reliability
R. M. SHAHBAB
Assistant Professor, Department of IPE, BUET
Email: sshahbab@ipe.buet.ac.bd
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Reference
1. An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering
– Charles E. Ebeling
2. Probability, Reliability, and Statistical Methods in Engineering
Design - Achintya Haldar & Sankaran Mahadevan
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What is Reliability?
Thread Standards and Definitions
➢ Most observable phenomena in the world contain a certain amount of
uncertainty, therefore they cannot be predicted with certainty.
➢ Repeated measurements of physical phenomena generate multiple
outcomes.
➢ The occurrence of multiple outcomes without any pattern is described by
terms such as uncertainty, randomness, and stochasticity.
➢ All the parameters of interest in engineering analysis and design have some
degree of uncertainty and thus may be considered to be random variables.
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What is Reliability?
Thread Standards and Definitions
➢ The planning and design of most engineering systems utilize the basic
concept that the Load or Stress should at least satisfy the Strength.
➢ Most of the parameters related to stress and strength are random
quantities.
➢ In view of the uncertainties in the problem, satisfactory performance cannot
be absolutely ensured.
➢ Instead, assurance can only be given in terms of the probability of success
in satisfying some performance criterion.
➢ In engineering terminology, this probabilistic assurance of performance is
referred to as reliability. 4
Measures of Reliability
Thread Standards and Definitions
➢ Traditional approaches simplify the problem by considering the uncertain
parameters to be deterministic and accounting for the uncertainties through
the use of empirical safety factors.
➢ Safety factors are derived based on past experience but do not absolutely
guarantee safety or satisfactory performance.
➢ In the context of the load, the nominally observed value of the load (referred
to as the service load) is multiplied by a safety factor greater than 1.0 to
obtain the design load.
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Measures of Reliability
Thread Standards and Definitions
➢ For practical structures and performance criteria, it is difficult to compute
the probability of success/failure precisely.
➢ Therefore, a first-order estimate frequently is used in probabilistic design
specifications.
➢ This first-order estimate employs a measure known as the reliability index
or safety index (denoted by the Greek symbol beta, β).
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Sources of Uncertainty
Thread Standards and Definitions
Sources of uncertainty may be divided into two types:
➢ Aleatory Uncertainty
➢ Natural randomness
➢ Irreducible.
➢ Epistemic Uncertainty
➢ Results from a lack of knowledge.
➢ Reducible
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Causes of Failure for a Design
Thread Standards and Definitions
➢ Poor design (inherently incapable)
➢ Overstress (unanticipated loading)
➢ Uncertainty in load or strength
➢ Degradation with time
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Causes of Failure for a Design
Thread Standards and Definitions
Uncertainty in load or strength
Deterministic Design (traditional point ofview)
Safety
Margin
Load Strength Stress
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G. Subbarayan, PurdueUniv.
Causes of Failure for a Design
Thread Standards and Definitions
Uncertainty in load or strength
Uncertain Load
Safety
Margin
Load Strength Stress
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G. Subbarayan, PurdueUniv.
Causes of Failure for a Design
Thread Standards and Definitions
Uncertainty in load or strength
Uncertain Strength
Safety
Margin
Load Strength Stress
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G. Subbarayan, PurdueUniv.
Causes of Failure for a Design
Thread Standards and Definitions
Uncertainty in load or strength
Uncertain Load and Strength
Safety
Margin?
Load Strength Stress
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G. Subbarayan, PurdueUniv.
Causes of Failure for a Design
Thread Standards and Definitions
Degradation with Time
Time
Examples: Creep, fatigue, oxidation, corrosion, thresholdvoltage
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G. Subbarayan, PurdueUniv.
