Bitwise Eurupe The Investment Case For Solana SOL
Bitwise Eurupe The Investment Case For Solana SOL
This document is intended for professional investors only. Capital at risk. The information
provided in this report is for informative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice,
a recommendation or solicitation to conclude a transaction or invest in a financial product.
Table of Contents
I Executive Summary 5
Solana Explained 8
Staking Solana 31
V Conclusion 46
Ayush Tripathi
Research Analyst
Ayush Tripathi has worked in the crypto and digital assets space since
graduating from Bocconi University in 2023. He currently leads Bitwise’s
research into programmable blockchains. Ayush previously worked
as a consultant for family offices evaluating the crypto and digital asset
market and as a research analyst for multiple institutional research
platforms.
Bitwise is one of the world’s leading crypto specialist asset managers. Thousands of financial
advisors, family offices, and institutional investors across the globe have partnered with Bitwise
to understand and access the opportunities in crypto.
Since 2017, Bitwise has established a track record of excellence managing a broad suite of index
and active solutions across ETPs, separately managed accounts, private funds, and hedge fund
strategies, spanning both the U.S. and Europe.
In Europe, Bitwise (previously ETC Group) has developed an extensive and innovative suite
of crypto ETPs, including Europe’s largest and most liquid Bitcoin ETP. This family of crypto ETPs
is domiciled in Germany and issued under a prospectus approved by BaFin, with 100% of the assets
backing Bitwise’s products securely stored offline (in cold storage) through regulated custodians.
Bitwise products are designed to seamlessly integrate into any professional portfolio, providing
comprehensive exposure to crypto as an asset class.
Access is straightforward via major European stock exchanges, with primary listings on Xetra,
the most liquid exchange for ETF trading in Europe. Retail investors benefit from easy access
through numerous DIY/online brokers, coupled with Bitwise’s robust and secure physical ETP
structure, which includes a redemption feature.
Solana is a high-performance blockchain poised to lead the next phase of decentralized application
adoption, driven by sustainable economics, developer innovation, and execution excellence.
— E
conomic Strength: Solana’s staking model balances inflationary rewards with deflationary
mechanisms, incentivizing network security while enhancing token value.
— D
eveloper Leadership: Its 100x improvement in speed and cost over Ethereum has attracted
a vibrant developer ecosystem, with increasing migration from competing platforms.
— Technological
Innovation: Solana’s monolithic architecture ensures scalability, low fees,
and a superior user experience, avoiding the complexities of modular Layer-2 solutions.
— E
cosystem Growth: Spanning DeFi, NFTs, and Decentralized Physical Infrastructure
Networks (DePIN), Solana supports diverse, high-value applications, including partnerships
with Shopify and Circle.
With proven scalability, low costs, and a thriving ecosystem, Solana is a leading contender
for institutional and retail adoption, delivering transformative opportunities for investors.
First, the platform’s economic model has proven remarkably robust, with Solana’s real economic
value reaching unprecedented heights: November alone generated $ 409 million1 in revenue through
genuine economic activity. It is particularly noteworthy that Solana’s staking mechanism creates
a sophisticated wealth transfer dynamic from non-stakers to stakers. While critics focus on headline
inflation numbers, this design actively rewards network security participants, creating a powerful
economic feedback loop. This is not mere dilution—it’s an elegantly designed system wherein active
participants gain an increasing share of ownership over time, much like how traditional financial
markets reward active capital deployment.
Second, the developer ecosystem story is equally compelling. Solana’s improvement over Ethereum
in terms of speed and cost was revolutionary—a 100x enhancement that fundamentally changed
what was possible on-chain. In contrast, newer competitors to Solana face a much steeper
challenge: They must demonstrate meaningful advantages over an already optimized infrastructure.
Just as Ethereum’s developer network effects proved insurmountable for previous “Ethereum
killers,” Solana’s growing developer mindshare, evidenced by growing hackathon participation rates
and significant migration from EVM chains, suggests we’re witnessing the emergence of a new
blue-chip blockchain.
Lastly, execution velocity has emerged as Solana’s defining moat. While competitors focus
on theoretical improvements, Solana’s engineering-first culture consistently delivers practical
solutions. For example, the Firedancer implementation, which promises 1 million transactions per
second (TPS) on commodity hardware—and which is now live on the Solana Testnet—exemplifies
this approach, focusing on tangible improvements rather than theoretical perfection. This execution-
focused strategy has already enabled Solana to maintain sub-second finality and negligible
transaction costs while scaling network activity.
We believe we are approaching a pivotal moment in the Layer-1 segment as we move toward
2025. The industry is transitioning from theoretical discussions about blockchain adoption
to practical implementation of use cases and rigorous infrastructure stress-testing as institutions
enter the space. The fundamental question regarding institutional blockchain adoption has
shifted from “if” to “when and who.” While Ethereum has garnered significant institutional interest,
Solana’s recent performance—particularly its resilience during unprecedented network activity
and its ability to maintain stability through various stress tests—presents a compelling case
for institutional adoption.
Despite historical challenges with outages, Solana’s remarkable recent performance sets a new
standard for blockchain infrastructure reliability. Looking toward 2025, we expect this momentum
to create a powerful positive feedback loop: More successful use cases will drive greater product-
market fit, which in turn will attract more developers and institutions.
The question is no longer whether Solana will succeed, but rather how transformative its impact will be.
At its core, Solana is designed to facilitate the rapid, cost-effective, and scalable execution of dApps
across a wide range of industries. The platform’s architecture is capable of processing a theoretical
maximum of 65,000 TPS without the need for additional scaling solutions, making it an ideal choice
for a variety of use cases such as on-chain gaming and financial services.
What sets Solana apart from its competitors is its unique approach to achieving scalability. While
many blockchains rely on complex, multi-layered architectures to improve performance (a modular
approach), Solana has adopted a streamlined, single-layer integrated design (a monolithic
approach). This design choice, in our opinion, was a revolutionary one within the space at the time,
and as a result has set the new gold standard for the new generation of Layer-1 blockchains (such
as Aptos).
Solana’s native token, SOL, serves as the lifeblood of the ecosystem, facilitating value transfer
and securing the network through a staking mechanism. The platform’s growing popularity
and impressive technical capabilities have propelled SOL into the ranks of the top 10 crypto assets
by market capitalization.
Ethereum Solana BNB Chain Cardano Tron Avalanche Polkadot Near Aptos
400%
350%
325%
300%
250%
Price Performance
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
01/2024 02/2024 03/2024 04/2024 05/2024 06/2024 07/2024 08/2024 09/2024 10/2024 11/2024 12/2024
The launch of the iPhone marked a significant shift in the mobile industry, introducing a device
that offered a more intuitive, user-friendly experience and a robust app ecosystem. This
breakthrough in user experience and functionality appealed to a much broader consumer
market, driving widespread adoption and fundamentally changing the way people interacted
with mobile technology.
In the context of the blockchain industry, Ethereum can be seen as analogous to the pre-
iPhone era of mobile devices. As a pioneer in smart contracts and decentralized applications,
Ethereum has been instrumental in advancing blockchain technology and laying the groundwork
for the decentralized economy. However, like the early smartphones, Ethereum has begun to face
challenges related to scalability, high transaction costs, and slow confirmation times, which have
the potential to limit its adoption and growth.
Although the development of Layer-2 scaling solutions on Ethereum shows promise, alternative
platforms like Solana, which offer compelling solutions for specific use cases, may be better suited
to meet the needs of certain dApps and user bases.
The combination of high throughput, low latency, and minimal transaction costs enables developers
to create decentralized applications that push the boundaries of what is possible on blockchain
technology. From real-time market data and high-frequency trading to large-scale gaming
and social media platforms, Solana’s technology stack empowers builders to create applications
that can compete with, and even outperform, centralized systems in terms of speed, efficiency,
and user experience.
70,000
65,000 65,000
60,000
50,000
Max Theoretical TPS
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
5,000
2,222 1,500 793 119 7
0
Solana Visa Mastercard BNB Chain XRP Ledger PayPal Ethereum Bitcoin
7,229 tx/s
16m
6M
5M
4M
DAA
3M
2M
1M
Solana’s ecosystem spans various sectors, including decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible
tokens (NFTs), gaming, and decentralized infrastructure. Projects like Serum (decentralized
exchange), Raydium (automated market maker), and Hivemapper (decentralized AI-powered
dashcam network for real-time map data) showcase the diversity and potential of the Solana
ecosystem. The Solana Foundation has actively supported the growth of the ecosystem through
initiatives like the Solana Accelerator Program, hackathons, and strategic partnerships. These efforts
have attracted top talent and fostered a strong product-oriented developer community.
$12B
$10,667 B
$10B
$8B
$6B $5,469 B
$4,706 B
$4,286 B
$4B
$2B
$1,243 B
$0
Ethereum Solana Bitcoin Ronin Polygon
Solana’s streamlined single-layer architecture offers significant advantages over Ethereum’s multi-
layered “L2” scaling approach. By avoiding the complexities of coordinating multiple layers, Solana
achieves high transaction throughput and low fees without complexity.
Solana’s monolithic design sidesteps these issues, enabling more efficient transaction processing
at a lower cost compared to Ethereum’s L2 approach. This architectural simplicity positions
Solana as a compelling alternative for users and developers seeking a high-performance
blockchain platform.
Source: Bitwise Europe, adapted from Syncracy. Note: Illustrative Fee Flows
Solana’s decision to stick with a monolithic architecture is rooted in its early challenges with
fundraising. During its initial coin offering (ICO) in March 2020, Solana raised just $ 1.76 million,
a modest sum compared to some of its peers. For example, Algorand had raised $ 60 million
in a similar auction just six months prior. These constraints forced Solana to be judicious with
its resources and design choices, ultimately leading to the efficient, cost-effective single-layer
architecture it employs today.
To better illustrate the difference between Solana’s monolithic approach and the modular
architecture used by blockchains like Ethereum, let’s draw a parallel to traditional finance. Consider
the example of a full-service bank that provides a wide range of financial services, such as checking
and savings accounts, loans, credit cards, and investment products, all under one roof.
In this analogy, the full-service bank represents Solana’s monolithic architecture, where all
the core functions of the blockchain are handled on a single layer. Just as the bank provides
a comprehensive suite of services, Solana’s single-layer design enables it to process transactions,
execute smart contracts, and manage the entire ecosystem without relying on additional layers
or third-party solutions.
This monolithic approach offers several advantages. First, it simplifies the user experience,
as individuals and businesses can interact with the blockchain directly, without the need
for intermediaries. Second, it reduces complexity, as all the components of the system are tightly
integrated and optimized to work together seamlessly. Third, it enables fast and cheap transactions,
as there is no need to coordinate between multiple layers or pay fees to intermediaries.
In contrast, blockchains with modular architectures, like Ethereum, can be compared to a network
of specialized financial institutions. In this model, you might have separate entities for checking
accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments, each with its own systems and processes. While this
approach allows for specialization and innovation within each domain, it also introduces challenges
such as fragmented user experiences, increased complexity, and higher costs due to the need
for coordination between different entities.
Solana’s monolithic architecture, much like a full-service bank, streamlines the blockchain
experience by providing a comprehensive and integrated platform. This architectural choice is a key
factor in Solana’s ability to offer high performance, low costs, and a developer-friendly environment,
making it an attractive option for users and builders alike.
To understand PoH, imagine a traditional stock exchange where traders must constantly
communicate to agree on the order of trades. This communication can slow down the process, like
how validators in traditional blockchains must reach consensus on transaction order. In contrast,
PoH functions like a synchronized, tamper-proof clock that all traders can independently reference,
eliminating the need for constant communication.
Anatoly Yakovenko, the creator of Solana, recognized that the scalability limitations in existing
blockchains were largely due to the lack of a trustless, universal clock for timestamping transactions.
His solution was to create a global clock that each validator could independently verify, simplifying
network synchronization. This allows transactions to be processed almost immediately upon arrival,
like how stock trades are executed in real time.
By minimizing the need for nodes to communicate and agree on transaction order, Solana can
process transactions much more efficiently than traditional Proof of Stake (PoS) blockchains like
Ethereum. Ethereum’s sequential processing and the requirement for nodes to agree on transaction
order can lead to significant congestion during high network activity, like how a stock exchange
might experience delays during peak trading hours.
$30 $0.08
$0.07
$25
$0.06
$20
$ Avg. Fee (ETH, BTC)
$0.05
$0.03
$10
$0.02
$5
$0.01
$0 0
In addition to PoH, Solana also implements a unique localized fee market that further helps
to mitigate the impact of network congestion on transaction fees. In Solana’s localized fee market,
transactions that don’t overlap with each other are executed on separate threads, much like vehicles
traveling on separate roads.
For example, if one account becomes busy due to high demand for a specific asset, such as an
NFT, only the fees on that account will increase. The fees on other accounts, unaffected by this
congestion, remain stable. This leads to a fee market that responds to demand based on the use
case. When there’s a spike in demand for a specific asset, the transaction cost for that asset rises
temporarily, while the costs for other transactions on the chain remain unaffected.
Source: Visa
At the core of Solana’s consensus mechanism is PoH, a cryptographic clock that allows each
validator to keep track of time independently. PoH works by creating a chain of hashes, where
each hash is derived from the previous one. This creates a verifiable sequence of events, proving
the passage of time without the need for validators to communicate with each other.
In addition to PoH, Solana integrates Tower BFT, a tailored implementation of Byzantine Fault
Tolerance (BFT). BFT is a consensus mechanism that ensures the network remains operational
and secure even if some validators fail or behave maliciously. In practical terms, it allows the system
to achieve consensus despite potential disruptions. Tower BFT enhances this by leveraging PoH
as a time and order reference, enabling validators to efficiently vote on the state of the ledger.
As more validators confirm a specific sequence of events, it becomes increasingly difficult to alter
or reverse transactions, providing both security and finality to the network. This design strengthens
Solana’s ability to deliver reliable high-speed performance in a decentralized environment.
The combination of DPoS, PoH, and Tower BFT allows Solana to process thousands of transactions
per second, making it one of the fastest blockchain networks in the industry. Its high throughput
and low latency make Solana an attractive platform for applications that require fast and inexpensive
transactions, such as DeFi protocols, gaming, and DePIN protocols.
In addition to PoH and Tower BFT, Solana has implemented several other innovations that further
enhance its performance and scalability:
Turbine: Turbine is a block propagation protocol that breaks data down into smaller packets,
enabling faster and more efficient data transmission across the network. This innovation helps
to optimize bandwidth usage and reduces the time required for block confirmation.
Pipeline: Pipeline is a transaction processing unit that streamlines the process of transaction
validation and execution. By optimizing the transaction flow (by using different parts
of the hardware), it helps maximize the efficiency and utilization of hardware. This helps
to minimize the latency and improve the overall efficiency of the network.
Archivers: Archivers are a distributed ledger storage solution that allows the network
to store large amounts of data off-chain, reducing the storage burden on individual nodes.
This innovation helps to ensure that the network remains accessible to a wider range
of participants, regardless of their individual storage capacities.
This innovation brings a range of new features and capabilities that were previously unattainable
on Solana. SuperToken offers several key advantages, including immutable ownership, which
prevents unauthorized token transfers and ensures secure transactions; confidential transfers,
enabling private transactions through zero-knowledge proofs; interest-bearing tokens, allowing
for the accumulation of interest over time; transfer fees, facilitating sustainable community funding;
transfer hooks, opening up new possibilities for custom program triggers during token transfers;
and non-transferable tokens, which are useful for applications such as event ticketing.
The overarching trend here is constant innovation that pushes the boundaries of what is possible
in a blockchain. Solana has been a leader in this field for years, and that leadership position
is strengthening over time.
While Solana has already made significant strides in solving throughput and scalability issues with
its innovative consensus mechanism and parallel transaction processing, the platform continues
to explore new ways to enhance its capabilities. One such approach is the concept of “Network
Extensions,” a term coined by Austin Federa,2 which aims to improve scalability and introduce
specialized execution environments without compromising the platform’s core advantages
or requiring users to navigate the complexities of moving assets between different layers.
The term “Network Extensions” has sparked a debate within the crypto community about
the similarities and differences between Solana’s approach to scaling and Ethereum’s Layer 2
(“L2”) solutions. While some argue that Network Extensions are essentially the same as Ethereum’s
L2s, there are key differences between the two concepts. Ethereum’s L2s are defined by specific
technical architectures and involve moving execution and data off the main chain, whereas
Network Extensions are categorized based on their purpose and the functionality they bring
to the Solana ecosystem.
Examples of Network Extensions in the Solana ecosystem include protocols like Neon EVM,
which allows EVM developers to deploy Solidity contracts on Solana, and Sonic, an L2 SVM
rollup focused on gaming.
The debate surrounding Network Extensions highlights the ongoing competition between Solana
and Ethereum, with both platforms seeking to offer the most efficient and user-friendly scaling
solutions. Some Solana supporters argue that Ethereum’s L2s are “parasitic” to the base layer,
taking away revenue and users. However, Ethereum proponents counter that L2s are symbiotic
and complementary to the base layer, and that the term “parasitic” is simply a pejorative term used
to imply that Ethereum’s L2 model is inferior.
While the debate surrounding the similarities and differences between Network Extensions
and Ethereum’s L2 solutions continues, it is clear that Solana is committed to finding innovative ways
to enhance its capabilities without compromising its core strengths. As the platform navigates this
critical juncture, the success of its Network Extension strategy will depend on its ability to enable
new use cases, improve performance, and maintain a seamless user experience.
60M 100%
90%
50M
80%
70%
40M
Average Daily Transactions
Relative Dominance
60%
30M 50%
40%
20M
30%
20%
10M
10%
0 0%
While Solana’s DeFi market share is substantially less than Ethereum’s, with Solana at roughly 11%
the size of Ethereum in terms of TVL, Solana’s target market extends beyond DeFi, primarily focusing
on high-frequency operations and retail trading activity such as payments, trading, gaming, artificial
intelligence (AI), and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN).
The platform’s potential is not merely theoretical; Solana is already seeing significant real-world
adoption across various industries and use cases. For example, Solana has recently partnered with
Shopify, allowing millions of businesses to accept payments via Solana Pay, a decentralized, peer-
to-peer payments protocol built on the Solana blockchain. This partnership highlights Solana’s ability
to integrate with established platforms and provide valuable solutions for real-world applications.
A prime example of Solana’s DePIN capabilities is the Helium network, a decentralized wireless
network that incentivizes users to provide coverage by rewarding them with HNT tokens.
Helium’s migration to the Solana blockchain has opened up new possibilities for scalability
and interoperability, demonstrating Solana’s ability to support large-scale, real-world
infrastructure projects.
Similarly, Hivemapper, a decentralized mapping network built on Solana, leverages the power
of crowdsourcing to create highly accurate, up-to-date maps. By incentivizing users to contribute
mapping data through a token rewards system, Hivemapper is building a decentralized alternative
to traditional mapping services, with the potential to disrupt industries ranging from transportation
to urban planning.
As more DePIN projects recognize the benefits of building on Solana, the platform is poised
to become the go-to blockchain for decentralized infrastructure initiatives. The success of projects
like Helium and Hivemapper highlights Solana’s ability to support complex, real-world use cases that
require high throughput, low latency, and cost-effective transactions.
Solana’s DePIN ecosystem is not limited to these two projects; numerous other initiatives are
leveraging the platform’s capabilities to build decentralized infrastructure solutions. For example,
projects like Akash Network, a decentralized cloud computing platform, are utilizing Solana’s
blockchain to create innovative, decentralized solutions for their respective industries.
The growth of Solana’s DePIN ecosystem can be attributed to several factors, including
the platform’s high-performance architecture, low transaction costs, and vibrant developer
community. As more projects recognize the benefits of building on Solana, the network effects
created by this growing ecosystem will likely attract even more developers, users, and investors,
further solidifying Solana’s position as a leader in the DePIN space.
The Firedancer project is not only a game-changer in terms of performance but also a critical
step in enhancing Solana’s robustness. By diversifying the network’s validator clients, Firedancer,
along with other clients like Anza’s Agave, reduces the risk of a single point of failure. This increased
resilience, combined with the scalability improvements brought by Firedancer, makes Solana an
even more attractive platform for the future of tokenized trading and decentralized finance.
The advent of blockchain technology has also introduced a new paradigm for high-frequency
trading (HFT), presenting both challenges and opportunities for traders and quants. Unlike traditional
HFT, which focuses on minimizing latency by colocating with exchanges, trading on blockchains
like Solana involves a distributed systems problem, where latency depends on the physical location
of the validator processing a transaction.
Solana’s architecture, with its emphasis on high throughput and low latency, is uniquely positioned
to address these challenges. The Firedancer project, in particular, promises to revolutionize
blockchain-based HFT by enabling theoretical throughputs of up to 1 million transactions per
second on commodity hardware. This scalability, combined with Solana’s fast block times and low
transaction costs, makes it an ideal platform for HFT strategies.
Moreover, Solana’s growing ecosystem of decentralized exchanges, such as Serum and Raydium,
provides a fertile ground for HFT firms to deploy their strategies. These exchanges, built on Solana’s
high-performance blockchain, offer traders access to deep liquidity and advanced trading features,
creating new opportunities for arbitrage and market-making. As tokenized markets expand
and mature, Solana’s ability to handle high-frequency trading at scale will become increasingly
crucial. The combination of Firedancer’s performance improvements and the platform’s inherent
advantages in terms of speed and cost-effectiveness position Solana to be a leading blockchain
for the next generation of financial markets.
The network’s low transaction fees make it economically viable for users to engage in frequent
trades and transactions of even small amounts—a crucial factor for the often low-value, high-
volume nature of memecoin trading. This technical foundation has allowed for the development
of an ecosystem tailor-made for retail engagement, with user-friendly tools like Telegram bots,
decentralized exchanges, and wallets simplifying the experience for newcomers.
The rise of memecoins on Solana, despite their speculative and often volatile nature, reflects deep-
seated behavioral and economic principles. Memecoins tap into the human brain’s dopaminergic
system, which governs reward anticipation. The rapid price swings offer both the thrill of potential
reward and the communal engagement of participating in a shared narrative. This phenomenon
is not new; speculative investments fueled the early days of the internet and the dot-com bubble,
catalyzing the digital transformation of the global economy.
Solana, often described as the “retail blockchain,” has benefited massively from the memecoin
phenomenon. The influx of memecoin activity drives network effects, increasing transaction
volume, fostering liquidity, and incentivizing the development of better tooling and infrastructure.
As mentioned earlier in our thesis, we believe this is another example of how Solana is being
stress-tested as a Layer-1 blockchain and continues to build irrefutable evidence that it has
the infrastructure to inevitably embrace mass adoption.
A prime example of how this ecosystem functions can be seen in the story of BONK, a “culture coin”
that has evolved to launch multiple products, including an NFT collection, a play-to-earn gaming
platform, and various DeFi integrations. Memecoins like BONK represent a form of “attention tokens,”
capturing and financializing attention by allowing people to speculate on cultural phenomena.
The meteoric rise of Pump.fun, the defining protocol of Solana’s growth over the past year,
exemplifies the potential of this ecosystem. Pump became the fastest-growing application
in the history of the crypto economy, generating $ 100 million in revenue in just 217 days. Today,
it stands as the industry’s top revenue-generating application, with a run rate of $ 348 million
per year. Although memecoin trading may ultimately be viewed as a form of blockchain-native
gambling, Pump’s success sends a powerful signal to builders on Solana about the possibilities
that await them.
The most compelling argument for the value of memecoins to Solana is their potential to serve
as a gateway to broader adoption. Many users who are initially drawn to Solana through memecoins
will eventually graduate to more sophisticated use cases, driving innovation and growth across
the ecosystem. The revenues and attention captured by memecoins can be reinvested into
the ecosystem, providing support and resources for projects that might otherwise struggle
to gain visibility or funding.
$350M
$300M
$250M
$200M
Revenue
$150M
$100M
$50M
$0
Pump.fun MakerDAO Lido Finance Jupiter Aave Raydium Curve Finance Jito Foundation
The Infinite Monkey Theorem provides a useful framework for understanding the value of this
market segment: Just as more monkeys typing on keyboards increases the likelihood of producing
Shakespeare, and testing more compounds in drug discovery increases the chances of finding
a cure, the proliferation of memecoin projects on Solana accelerates innovation and the emergence
of transformative applications. As the ecosystem matures, the resources and attention attracted
by memecoins can be channeled into more advanced use cases, positioning Solana as a leader
in the next phase of blockchain adoption.
Solana Ethereum BNB Chain Cardano Tron Avalanche Polkadot NEAR Protocol Aptos Total MC (SMC)
100% 1,000B
90% 900B
80% 800B
70% 700B
Market Cap Domincance %
60% 600B
50% 500B
40% 400B
30% 300B
20% 200B
10% 100B
0% 0
Solana’s innovative architecture and economic model present a compelling case for investors
seeking exposure to this asset class. To fully appreciate Solana’s value proposition, it is essential
to understand the distribution of the network’s Total Economic Value (TEV) among its key
stakeholders and the factors that drive demand for the native SOL token.
SOL token issuance is described by the inflation schedule’s three key parameters: the Initial Inflation
Rate (8%), the Disinflation Rate (–15%), and the Long-Term Inflation Rate (1.5%). Currently, SOL’s
inflation rate is 4.9%. Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS) consensus is natively built into Solana,
allowing token holders to easily stake their SOL to a validator of their choice and unstake at every
epoch boundary (which lasts approximately two days).
80.7% 19.3%
Year 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Inflation Rate 8.00% 6.80% 5.78% 4.91% 4.18% 3.55% 3.17% 2.57% 2.18% 1.85% 1.58%
Staking Solana
In traditional markets, investors are often faced with a choice between holding an asset for potential
price appreciation or seeking yield through various instruments such as bonds, dividends,
or interest-bearing accounts. However, the emergence of protocols like Solana has introduced
a new paradigm that allows investors to both hold the native token and earn rewards for supporting
the network through staking.
Solana’s innovative PoS mechanism is designed to incentivize token holders to actively participate
in securing the network by staking their SOL tokens. By doing so, stakers not only contribute
to the network’s overall health and stability but also have the opportunity to earn attractive rewards
in the form of newly minted SOL tokens.
The beauty of Solana’s staking model lies in its ability to create a positive feedback loop that benefits
both stakers and the network. As more token holders choose to stake their SOL, the network
becomes increasingly secure and resilient, which in turn drives greater adoption and demand
for the token. This virtuous cycle has the potential to create a sustainable and rewarding
ecosystem for all participants.
Stakers: Earning Rewards for Network Security. Stakers, a subset of token holders who
actively contribute to the network’s security by delegating their tokens to validators, enjoy
additional benefits beyond the potential appreciation of their holdings. They are rewarded
with a portion of the newly minted SOL through inflation and a share of the transaction fees
collected by the validators to which they delegate. This reward mechanism can be compared
to a dividend payment in the traditional stock market, whereby shareholders receive a portion
of the company’s profits as a return on their investment.
Validators: The Backbone of the Solana Network. Validators, the backbone of the Solana
network, are responsible for processing transactions, maintaining the ledger, and ensuring
the overall security and integrity of the blockchain.
Solana Achieves One of the Highest Staking Ratios and Staking Rewards in Top 50 PoS Protocols
Staking Ratio and Rewards Comparison Across Leading Networks
100%
90%
80% 77%
70% 67%
62%
60%
50% 48%
40%
30% 28%
20%
10% 7%
5%
3% 3% 3%
0%
Solana Ethereum Tron Cardano Sui
In this example, let’s assume an investor holds 10,000 SOL, which is 0.002% of the total supply.
At the current price of $ 20, their holdings are worth $ 200,000.
If the investor chooses to stake all their tokens and earns the full 6% annual reward, they receive
600 new SOL over the course of a year. Because we assume the price remains at $ 20‑implying
the total market cap grows proportionally to accommodate the new supply—the staker’s balance
of 10,600 SOL is now worth $ 212,000, reflecting a 6% gain. In contrast, a non-staker who held an
identical 10,000 SOL has not accrued any additional tokens and remains at $ 200,000 in absolute
value. Furthermore, their share of the network supply has effectively shrunk, since it remains at
10,000 SOL out of an expanded 530 million.
This simplified example demonstrates the power of Solana’s staking model in rewarding active
participants and creating a more equitable distribution of network ownership over time. However,
it is worth noting that aggressive issuance without sufficient token burns or market demand could
exert downward pressure on the market capitalization, further impacting the price of SOL. This
scenario assumes stable pricing for simplicity, but real-world dynamics may vary.
389.8M / 585.4M —
—
Fraction of staked SOL relative to the total circulating supply.
Commission charged by the validation service.
Current Staking Rate = 66.5% — Validator’s up-time/participation in the previous epoch.
Note: Locked tokens can be staked, allowing active stake to exceed the circulating supply.
The distribution of Solana’s Total Economic Value (TEV) among its key stakeholders—token holders,
stakers, and validators—is a crucial aspect of the network’s economic model. This distribution
mechanism plays a vital role in aligning the interests of various participants and ensuring the long-
term sustainability of the ecosystem.
Validators earn rewards as a payment for maintaining the network. Those participating in consensus
are incentivized with SOL rewards, which are distributed through inflation. This process increases
the total token supply by minting new tokens and distributing them to validators.
These rewards are issued at the end of each Solana epoch and are based on the annual inflation
rate, calculated using the following formula:
One of the key sources of revenue for validators is the Maximum Extractable Value (MEV),
which refers to the profits that can be earned by strategically including, excluding, or reordering
transactions within a block. MEV can be conceptualized as a form of arbitrage in traditional financial
markets, where traders seek to exploit price discrepancies across different exchanges or assets.
In the Solana ecosystem, specialized traders known as “searchers” identify MEV opportunities
and offer higher transaction fees (tips) to validators in exchange for prioritizing their transactions.
In this scenario, if a searcher identifies an MEV opportunity worth $ 1,000, they may offer a tip
of $ 800 (80% of the MEV) to the validator. Jito Labs, a prominent MEV solution provider that
connects all parties, captures a 5% fee on this tip, while the validator retains their commission
(assumed to be 10% in this example). The remaining portion of the tip is distributed among
the stakers delegated to that validator. The redistribution of MEV tips among validators and stakers
highlights the interconnected incentives that underpin Solana’s ecosystem. This mechanism
ensures that all participants—searchers, validators, and stakers—benefit from network activity,
fostering a cooperative and mutually rewarding environment.
In conclusion, Solana’s Proof of Stake inflation is designed in a way that does not necessarily dilute
the value of SOL but rather decreases the network share of non-stakers relative to stakers, a dilution
that effectively transfers wealth from non-stakers to stakers. This is a fairly standard approach
among PoS blockchains. While the issuance of new tokens through staking rewards does lead
to inflation, which can potentially dilute the value of SOL if the inflation rate outpaces the rate at
which SOL is burned (or taken out of circulation), this positive flywheel incentive mechanism is key
to encouraging investors to actively participate in the network. By staking their SOL, investors
can earn rewards that help offset the impact of inflation on their holdings while simultaneously
contributing to the long-term stability and success of the Solana ecosystem.
Solana is one of the best-performing investments in recent years, outpacing not only traditional
financial assets but also major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The chart below shows Solana’s (SOL) performance vis-à-vis both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
Solana Has Outperformed Both Bitcoin and Ethereum by a Very Wide Margin
Solana Relative Perfomance (Indexed to 100)
SOL/BTC SOL/ETH
3,000
2,500
Performance Index (start = 100)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
100
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Recent institutional investor surveys also revealed that Solana has become the third-most favored
crypto asset by institutions after Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Solana is considered a “high-beta play” on both Bitcoin and Ethereum, and is often used by
investors as a way to take on more risk in an attempt to outperform the market.
Beta (Sensitivity)
Relative to Bitcoin
Source: CoinMarketCap, Bitwise Europe. Differing sample sizes. Results based on linear regression, Beta = sensitivity to BTC
MSCI World 1 0.97 0.27 -0.05 0.17 0.43 -0.4 0.32 0.11 0.34 0.19
S&P 500 0.97 1 0.2 -0.04 0.11 0.39 -0.3 0.28 0.1 0.32 0.19
BBG Global Agg 0.27 0.2 1 0.55 0.53 0.16 -0.73 0.15 0.08 0.15 0.11
Bund Future -0.05 -0.04 0.55 1 0.19 -0.1 0.01 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.09 1.0
Gold 0.17 0.11 0.53 0.19 1 0.41 -0.49 0.16 0.08 0.15 0.02
0.5
BBG Commodity 0.43 0.39 0.16 -0.1 0.41 1 -0.33 0.18 0.09 0.21 -0.07
0.0
Dollar Index -0.4 -0.3 -0.73 0.01 -0.49 -0.33 1 -0.16 -0.07 -0.22 -0.09
-0.5
MSCI DA20 Capped 0.32 0.28 0.15 0.08 0.16 0.18 -0.16 1 0.87 0.89 0.69
Bitcoin 0.11 0.1 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.09 -0.07 0.87 1 0.8 0.61
Ethereum 0.34 0.32 0.15 0.04 0.15 0.21 -0.22 0.89 0.8 1 0.61
Solana 0.19 0.19 0.11 0.09 0.02 -0.07 -0.09 0.69 0.61 0.61 1
MSCI World
S&P 500
Bund Future
Gold
BBG Commodity
Dollar Index
Bitcoin
Ethereum
Solana
Correlations of weekly returns. Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe. Earliest data start: 2011-01-03. data as of 2024-12-02
Diversification Potential
With a correlation coefficient of only 0.61, Solana and Bitcoin/Ethereum are moderately
correlated. This suggests that Solana is partially influenced by major crypto assets but still
moves independently enough to justify holding both in a diversified portfolio.
A beta of 1.90 to Bitcoin indicates that Solana can be seen as a higher-risk, higher-reward
alternative to both Bitcoin and Ethereum. When Bitcoin moves, Solana tends to move
in the same direction but with a larger magnitude. Therefore, Solana may offer amplified
returns in bullish markets while introducing some degree of volatility.
For investors looking for outperformance in bullish markets, adding Solana alongside
major crypto assets like Ethereum can provide enhanced returns without fully replicating
Ethereum’s movements.
Risk-Return Balance
Holding both Ethereum and Solana can allow investors to maintain a balance between
high-beta (Solana) and low-beta (Ethereum) exposures. Ethereum’s lower responsiveness
to market volatility complements Solana’s higher sensitivity, helping manage portfolio risk
while potentially increasing returns during favorable market conditions.
As discussed earlier in the report, Solana’s unique architecture, scalability, and thriving
ecosystem position it as a strong competitor to Ethereum. By investing in Solana
alongside Ethereum, investors can gain exposure to the growth potential of both platforms
while benefiting from diversification and the potential for amplified returns.
The analysis below examines how adding different amounts of Solana to a portfolio of Bitcoin
and Ethereum has impacted historical returns. The starting point is an equally weighted
portfolio consisting of both Bitcoin and Ethereum (50% each), rebalanced on a monthly
basis. Solana is added in 10% increments while the weights of both Bitcoin and Ethereum
are reduced proportionally.
ETH/BTC 50/50 +10% SOL +20% SOL +30% SOL BC/ETH/SOL equal-weighted
9,000%
Performance
6,000%
3,000%
0%
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe. Monthly rebalancing. Sharpe and Sortino Ratios were calculated was calculated with 3M USD Cash Index
as assumed risk-free rate. SOL allocation is equally taken out of BTC and ETH allocation. Past performance not indicative of future returns.
Solana (SOL)
Bitcoin (BTC)
8.9%
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe. Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. Optimized weights based on maximized Sharpe Ratio.
Sample: April 2020—2024/12/02. Values may not add to 100% due to rounding.
It bears reminding that the above analysis is based on limited historical data. The pure quant case
is just one approach, and investors might well consider other approaches. A rational investor might
not follow this approach exactly and might instead take an approach that relies more on market
capitalization.
Metcalfe’s Law assumes the utility of the network to increase to the square of the number of users.
For the sake of simplicity, we assume the Daily Active Addresses (DAA) to be the number of users
and the market capitalization to represent the utility of the network represented in monetary terms.
The regression analysis of the logarithm of DAA² against the logarithm of the market cap yields
an R² of 0.7111 and a positive correlation (y = 0.5359x + 4.0434), supporting our approach of using
network effects to project future valuations.
This relationship between DAA² and market cap is particularly relevant for Solana given its
unique positioning as the most scalable chain. Its monolithic design, combined with its innovative
consensus mechanism, value accrual to stakers, and battle-tested performance are designed
to drive mass user adoption through superior scalability.
The positive correlation, while moderate at 0.71, suggests that as Solana achieves its goal
of becoming “the most scalable and secure blockchain platform for global adoption,” network value
should grow proportionally with the square of its user base.
12
y = 0.5359x + 4.0434
R² = 0.7111
11
10
Network Value (Log)
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
We project a total of 1 billion daily active addresses across all blockchains by 2030, which we
note is a conservative estimate; the actual number could be higher since users typically maintain
multiple addresses. However, we maintain this 1 billion figure as our baseline to achieve a more
conservative valuation.
The growth scenarios build upon Solana’s current 2.84% market share. This methodology assumes
that Solana’s share of total crypto market capitalization provides a reasonable proxy for its potential
share of future network adoption, particularly given its positioning as a high-performance,
retail-focused chain.
The bear case assumes Solana captures 4.26% (1.5x its current share) of the projected 1 billion
daily active addresses in 2030, amounting to approximately 42.6 million DAA. The projected
growth from 7 million to 42.6 million DAA over six years results in a 35.1% CAGR. This projection
reflects organic growth sustained by Solana’s established ecosystem advantages, including
its proven high throughput and low transaction costs. This conservative estimate accounts
for potential market headwinds while acknowledging Solana’s strong foundation in retail
applications and growing institutional integrations. Based on our network value analysis, this
scenario yields a 2030 price target of $ 2,318.90.
The base case projects Solana capturing 7.1% (2.5x its current share) of total addresses
in 2030, or about 71 million DAA. This represents growth from 7 million to 71 million DAA over
six years, which translates to a 47.2% CAGR. This growth trajectory assumes that Solana builds
on its current momentum, supported by its expanding developer ecosystem and breakthrough
partnerships with mainstream platforms like Stripe and Shopify. This scenario results in a 2030
price target of $ 4,025.73.
The bull case envisions Solana capturing 11.36% (4x its current share) of addresses, reaching
approximately 113.6 million DAA and a 59.1% CAGR. This scenario reflects Solana’s potential
to leverage its execution moat—particularly its theoretical capacity of 65,000 TPS—to capture
a larger share of expected mainstream adoption. This growth trajectory is supported
by Solana’s robust DeFi ecosystem, growing institutional acceptance, and better regulatory
clarity that could accelerate adoption. Under this scenario, our analysis indicates a 2030
price target of $ 6,636.88.
It is important to note that our growth assumptions are deliberately conservative compared
to historical patterns. While our recent analysis of Aptos3 used much higher growth rates (2,792%
base case, which maps to the average growth of established Layer-1 platforms excluding market
leaders, and 17,000% bull case based on Ethereum and Solana’s historical growth patterns), such
assumptions would be unrealistic for Solana given its maturity and existing market share. As an
established blockchain that has already captured significant network effects, Solana’s growth
trajectory naturally differs from emerging platforms like Aptos that start from a much smaller base.
$10,000
$1,000
$100
Price ($)
$10
$1
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
(3) “The Investment Case for Aptos,” by Bitwise Europe. November 2024.
Our methodology examined average transaction fees (90‑day simple moving average) across
leading Layer 2 Ethereum solutions, next-generation chains like Aptos and Sui, and established
value-transfer networks like Tron. We calculated fee quartiles to represent varying user sensitivity:
• Bear Case (25th percentile): $ 0.0005—Highly cost-sensitive users prioritizing minimal fees
• Base Case (50th percentile): $ 0.0420—Average user preferences under normal conditions
• Bull Case (75th percentile): $ 0.1407—Reduced fee sensitivity as utility takes precedence
Given Solana’s fixed transaction fee mechanism (5,000 lamports per transaction, where 1 SOL = 1
billion lamports), its fee-to-price ratio remains constant at 0.0005%. This yields the following price
ceilings where Solana would remain competitive:
• Bear Case: $ 97.98
• Base Case: $ 8,550.87
• Bull Case: $ 28,401.23
The bull case transaction fee threshold of $ 0.1407 is notably conservative given broader industry
trends, where fees approaching $ 0.30 per transaction could still be considered negligible in many
contexts. Moreover, as the ecosystem matures, small fee differentials below certain psychological
thresholds become less decisive in guiding user behavior, particularly for higher-value transactions.
This analysis provides strong support for our network value-derived price targets. Even our bull
case target of $ 6,636.88 falls well below the $ 28,401.23 price ceiling where transaction fees would
become prohibitive. The results indicate that Solana can achieve significant price appreciation while
maintaining its core value proposition as a cost-effective blockchain.
From a competitive standpoint, while low fees remain an important differentiator for emerging
blockchains, Solana’s structural advantages ensure it can maintain this edge even with substantial
price appreciation. This provides additional confidence in our price targets and growth trajectory.
Solana stands out as a high-performance blockchain with a compelling investment thesis built
on sustainable economics, developer innovation, and technological excellence. Its monolithic
architecture enables unmatched scalability, low fees, and superior user experience, while
its staking model rewards active participants, creating a positive feedback loop for network
security and token value.
With a thriving ecosystem spanning DeFi, NFTs, gaming, and Decentralized Physical Infrastructure
Networks (DePIN), Solana has demonstrated product-market fit and resilience under stress.
Institutional adoption is accelerating, bolstered by innovations like Firedancer and partnerships with
major platforms like Shopify and Circle.
ISIN DE000A4A59D2
Domicile Germany
Staking: BSOL is fully backed and stakes the underlying SOL tokens to generate rewards
from the blockchain that will be accumulated in the ETP. The Compass Solana Total
Return Monthly Index allows for clear assessment of performance against the current
Solana staking rewards market rate.
The Risks
• Investors’ capital is at risk. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested and should
obtain independent advice before making a decision regarding investment.
• Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the relevant prospectus.
• ETP securities are structured as debt securities, not as equity.
• ETPs trade on exchanges like securities. They are bought/sold at market price which may
be different from the net asset value of the ETC.
Please note, this is not an exhaustive list and other risks may apply. Please consult the KIID
and Prospectus for more details
4Pillars. (2024). Solana Mega Report: Like Apple but Unlike Apple (v2). Retrieved from https://4pillars.io/en/articles/
solana-mega-report-like-apple-but-unlike-apple-v2
Alin, V. (2022). Solana’s Native Token and Its Uses. In D. Viglietti, Solana: A Critical Analysis of an Industry Whitepaper (p. 7). Retrieved from
https://danielviglietti.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Solana_Analysis_DV.pdf
Cryptonary. (2020). Proving History with Solana: Proof of History. Retrieved from https://cryptonary.com/research/
proving-history-with-solana-proof-of-history
Cryptopolitan. (2022). Solana Whitepaper Summary: Blueprint for Seminal Technologies Impacting Blockchain. Retrieved from
https://www.cryptopolitan.com/solana-whitepaper-summary-blueprint
Grace Group. (2024). TMG’s Thesis on Solana (SOL). Retrieved from https://gracegroup.substack.com/p/tmgs-thesis-on-solana-sol
Helius. (2024). Solana Issuance and Inflation Schedule. Retrieved from https://www.helius.dev/blog/solana-issuance-inflation-schedule
Helius. (2024). Solana Staking: A Simplified Guide to SOL Staking. Retrieved from https://www.helius.dev/blog/
solana-staking-simplified-guide-to-sol-staking
Papas, B. (2022). Proof of History: Transaction Flow through the Network. In D. Viglietti, Solana: A Critical Analysis of an Industry Whitepaper
(p. 6). Retrieved from https://danielviglietti.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Solana_Analysis_DV.pdf
Purpose Investments. (2022). Solana 101: Proof of History Explained. Retrieved from https://www.purposeinvest.com/funds/crypto/
knowledge-base/solana-101‑proof-history-explained
Shilina, S. (2022). Proof of History and Proof of Stake. In D. Viglietti, Solana: A Critical Analysis of an Industry Whitepaper (pp. 4—5).
Retrieved from https://danielviglietti.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Solana_Analysis_DV. pdf
Shoup, V. (2020). Proof of history: what is it good for?. Retrieved from https://www.shoup.net/papers/poh.pdf
Solana Labs. (2021). Proof of History: How Solana brings time to crypto [Video]. YouTube. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=079mUCjYpZs
Solana Labs. (2022). How Solana’s Proof of History is a Huge Advancement for Block Time. Retrieved from https://solana.com/news/
how-solana-s-proof-of-history-is-a-huge-advancement-for-block-time
Solana Labs. (2022). Proof of History: How Solana brings time to crypto. Retrieved from https://solana.com/news/proof-of-history
Wikipedia contributors. (2023, November 30). Solana (blockchain platform). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solana_(blockchain_platform)
Yakovenko, A. (2018). Solana: A new architecture for a high performance blockchain (Version 0.8.13). Solana Labs. Retrieved from
https://solana.com/solana-whitepaper.pdf
The information provided in this material is for informative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation
or solicitation to conclude a transaction.
This document (which may be in the form of a presentation, press release, social media post, blog post, broadcast communication or similar
instrument—we refer to this category of communications generally as a “document” for purposes of this disclaimer) is issued by Bitwise Europe
GmbH (“BEU” or “the Issuer”). This document has been prepared in accordance with applicable laws and regulations (including those relating
to financial promotions). This document does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation of an offer to buy any product
or to make any investment. It is provided for illustrative, educational or information purposes only and may be subject to change.
Bitwise Europe GmbH, incorporated under the laws of Germany, is the issuer of Exchange Traded Products (“ETPs”) described in this
document under a base prospectus and final terms, which may be supplemented from time to time, and which are approved by BaFin. If you are
considering investing in products issued by BEU you should check with your broker or bank that such products are available in your jurisdiction
and suitable for your investment profile. A decision to invest any amount in an ETPs offered by BEU should take into consideration your specific
circumstances after seeking independent investment, tax and legal advice.
You should read the relevant base prospectus and final terms before investing and, in particular, the section entitled “Risk Factors” for further
details of risks associated with an investment. The prospectuses, final terms and other documents relevant to BEU’s ETPs are available under
the “Resources” section at www.etcgroup.com. When visiting this website, you will need to self-certify as to your jurisdiction and investor type
in order to access these documents, and in so doing you may be subject to other disclaimers and important information.
europe@bitwiseinvestments.com
www.linkedin.com/company/etcgroup-bitwise
www.bitwiseinvestments.com/eu
Product materials, analysis, and due diligence collateral including SFDR information are available upon request.
Issuer
Bitwise Europe GmbH
Thurn-und-Taxis-Platz 6,
60313 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Be the first to get expert insights on the latest in Bitcoin and crypto assets.
Subscribe to our industry-leading newsletter and research content.
www.etc-group.com/subscribe