Fish Outlook

2015-2024 and 2030

Ad Hoc Expert Meeting on Trade in Sustainable Fisheries- Stefania Vannuccini

 Outline
• Background

• Fishery outlook

– OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024

– IFPRI-WB-FAO Fish to 2030

Before starting... let’s reflect
This is the BLUE planet

Water
About 72% of
the Earth’s
surface, with
about 97% in
oceans

Healthy aquatic
ecosystems are
vital to human
welfare
 What OCEANS/WATER give to us
All kinds of Provisioning, Regulating, Cultural and Supporting
services

• Fish and plants as a source of protein and micronutrients

(food)
• Pharmaceutical compounds (medical cures)
• Fixation of atmospheric carbon by algae
• Regulation of the climate and weather trends
• Provide mass transportation routes
• Provide pleasure and wellbeing (recreation)
•And much more…
Challenge: 9.7 billion in 2050
Sustainability
 Status of stocks

Percentage of stocks assessed

100%
 28.8% of overfished stocks in
90%
2011
80%
70%
 71.2% of stocks fished within
60%
biologically sustainable levels:
50%

 61% fully fished 40%

 10% underfished 30%

20%
10%
 Constant increase of the % of 0%

1989
1974
1978
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987

1990
1992
1995
1997
2000
2004
2006
2008
2009
2011
fully fished stocks since 1990
 Projections
(Intergovernamental Panel Climate Change)
The future ahead of us

?
 Outlook models

• Understanding on perspectives of
developments
• Lack of specific outlook model for the fisheries
and aquaculture sector
• Importance to draw fisheries outlook in
integration with agriculture models
 Two recent outcomes

• FAO fish model, being published in the yearly

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook publication
since 2011
• IFPRI’s IMPACT MODEL with results published
into the recent World Bank “Fish to 2030:
prospects for fisheries and aquaculture”
publication.
 Results

• Projections and not forecast

• Likely paths of development and constraints
in fishery and aquaculture supply and demand
• Determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in
comparative advantage, price effects, and
potential adaptation strategies in the sector
• Medium/longer outlook
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
• Joint OECD-FAO report
• Country collaborators
• Aglink-COSIMO, partial
equilibrium model
• 10 year horizon
• Major temperate
commodities
• Global coverage
Total fishery production
Tonnes (live weight)

200

160

120 Aquaculture
80

40 Capture

0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Projected growth (quantity and %)
 Aquaculture growth
p.a. 2.1 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.5
+26.4 million tonnes
%
94% in developing 40

countries
Europe 30
4%
Latin
America &
Caribbean 20
4% Asia
Africa 89%
2% 10

North
America
0
1% Oceania North Europe Latin Africa Asia
Oceania
0% America America &
Caribbean
Lower annual growth rate of aquaculture
%
12

10

0
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
Surpass of aquaculture
Tonnes (live weight)
Total capture
100

80
Capture for food
60
Aquaculture
40

20

0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Slight increase of capture fisheries
Tonnes (live weight)
100

80 Total capture
El niño
60

40
Non-food uses
20

0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
 More fishmeal produced from residues
Tonnes (product weight)
8

El niño
6

4 From residues

From whole fish

2

0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Use of fishmeal in aquaculture
%
0.40
Ratio of fishmeal consumption to aquaculture production
0.35

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
 World fishery trade
Tonnes (live weight)
60

50
Trend
40
Imports excluding intra EU
30

20

10

0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Lower growth of fish consumption
Kg live weight

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
 Additional fish
31 million tonnes
additional fish
consumed by 2024
Africa
8%
Developed Developing
Oceania Other Asia 2%
100% 1%
Viet Nam 3%
90% North Bangladesh 3%
America Indonesia 8%
80%
5% India 8%
70%
Latin
60% 94%
83% America &
Asia
50% Caribbean China 53%
71%
5%
40%
30% Europe
10%
20%
10%
0%
Additional fish consumed
 Growth in per capita fish consumption
Kg per capita (live weight)
+2% +12% +9% +9% +12% +7% +7% +20% +4%

35

30 Average 2012-14
2024
25

20

15

10

0
Developed Developing World Oceania Asia North Europe Latin America Africa
America
Caloric and Protein intake per capita
Calories Protein
Slightly higher prices
USD/tonne
3500

3000

2500
Traded products
2000
Aquaculture
1500
Capture (excl. for reduction)
1000

500

0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Lower prices in real terms
2010 USD/tonne
3500

3000
Fish traded
2500

2000
Fish oil
1500
Fishmeal
1000

500

0
 Fish to 2030
Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture
• Collaboration: FAO, International
Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI), University of Arkansas, and
the World Bank
• IFPRI’s IMPACT Model
• Capture and aquaculture supply
modeled for 16 fish species group
and 115 country/regions
Projected Total Fish Supply

2011 (Data) 2030 (Model)

Capture Aquaculture Capture Aquaculture

63.6 93.4 95.7

90.4

Total Harvest
Total Harvest
154.0 Million Tonnes
189.1 Million Tonnes
Aquaculture Growth

2030 (Model)

• Approx. 50% of total harvest

• Approx. 62% of fish for direct human
consumption
• Aquaculture 2010-2030 62% in 20 yrs
• Total supply (capture + aquaculture) 2010-2030
24% in 20 yrs
Aquaculture Supply Growth: Species

• More than 90% increase from 2010 to 2030

– Tilapia
– Shrimp
• 40-90% increase from 2010 to 2030
– Molluscs
– Salmon
– Carp
– Pangasius/catfish
– Crustaceans
– Other freshwater and diadromous species
Aquaculture Supply Growth: Regions
• More than 100% increase from 2010 to 2030
– India
– Latin America and Caribbean
– Southeast Asia
• 50-100% increase from 2010 to 2030
– South Asia (excl. India)
– Middle East and North Africa
– Sub-Saharan Africa
• Less than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030
– Everywhere else
Consumption Growth: Regions

• More than 50% increase from

2010 to 2030
– South Asia (excl. India)
• 30-50% increase from 2010 to 70000

2030 60000
2010
– India
50000
– Southeast Asia 2030
– North America 40000

– Middle East and North Africa 30000

– China 20000
– Sub-Saharan Africa
10000
• Decline from 2010 to 2030
– Japan 0
ECA NAM LAC EAP CHN JAP SEA SAR IND MNA AFR ROW
Six hypothetical scenarios
• Scenario 1: Faster aquaculture growth
• Scenario 2: Expanded use of fish processing
waste in fishmeal and fish oil production
• Scenario 3: A major disease outbreak in shrimp
aquaculture in Asia
• Scenario 4: Accelerated shift of consumer
preferences in China
• Scenario 5: Improvement of capture fisheries
productivity
• Scenario 6: Impacts of climate change on the
productivity of capture fisheries
 Overall conclusion
• Major growth in production from aquaculture
• Projections indicate a continuous rise in demand for
fish and fishery products, with growing trade and
consumption
• Differentiation of consumption, opening of new
markets
• Risk of increase of costs of production
• Too high prices in the market will risk the effect of
substitution with other emerging commodities
• Need to long-term resource conservation and
effective management of resources as well as of
aquaculture
 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook:
http://www.agri-outlook.org/

Fish to 2030:
http://www.fao.org/docrep/019/i36
40e/i3640e.pdf

Stefania.Vannuccini@fao.org