gold.

org

Weekly Markets
Monitor
24 March 2025

All data as of most recent Friday close unless otherwise stated

 What you need to know – Gold claims US$3,000/oz 2

Highlights Chart of the week – QT lifeline: running out of time?

• Last week was peppered with global central bank meetings, with four out of five opting to keep
rates unchanged, citing growing economic and political uncertainty. The US Fed has penciled in
two rate cuts this year while the BoJ has indicated further hikes.
• Global equity markets closed mostly higher. US stocks finally rebounded following weeks of
declines and Europe equities also gained. Indian equities rose as investors bought dips while
Chinese stock dropped. The 10-year US Treasury yields fell and the dollar rose as investors
assessed the Fed’s future rate path and trade policy uncertainty.
• Gold finally closed above the US$3,000/oz threshold. It has so far rejected technical resistance at
$3,040/3,050/oz and the market is seen as highly overstretched, with a possible (healthy) pause in
the core uptrend on the cards.
• After the Fed’s decision to slow their QT pace, markets have been adjusting their expectations. On
Wall Street, while some institutions see the end arriving in Q3 2025, others forecast some time in
2026. And the Polymarket betters are much more aggressive as the crypto-based platform shows
a 100% possibility of QT ending by this May.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

* BoFA US government bond index, TR except correlations, which use the change in US 10-year Tsy yield. ** BoFA Japanese government bond index, TR except correlations, which use the change in the 10-year JGB yield Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
 Last week in review 3

US: Fed holds rates alongside mixed economic reports

• The Fed held rates at 4.25-4.50%, reaffirming two rate cuts in 2025
while lowering 2025 growth expectation to 1.7% (from 2.1%) and raising
inflation outlook to 2.7% (from 2.5%). It also scaled down balance sheet
reduction, reducing Treasury roll-offs from $25bn to $5bn.

• Retail sales rose just 0.2% in February, below the 0.7% estimate; weekly
jobless claims edged up slightly to 223K (from 221K), and trade
tensions and government spending cuts are expected to push claims
further higher.

• Existing home sales rose 4.2% in February, housing starts jumped

11.2% m/m and industrial production beat expectations with a 0.7%
gain (0.3%e), signaling improving domestic manufacturing.

Europe: interest rates held, cut, and stimulus approved India: trade deficit shrinks as oil and gold Japan and China: BoJ’s hawkish pause, China’s economy shows
imports shrink signs of recovery
• The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.5%, signaling
caution on rate cuts due to gradual inflation decline and global • India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to a • The BoJ kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, adopting a
economic uncertainty. three-and-a-half-year low of US$14.0bn in cautious stance amid concerns over impact of U.S. tariffs, while
February, driven by a 16.3% fall in imports to also indicating further tightening.
• Sweden's Riksbank kept rates at 2.25%, while the Swiss US$50.9bn, including a 29.6% drop in oil
National Bank cut its rate to 0.25%, citing low inflation and imports to US$11.9bn and a 62% plunge in • Recent data shows progress in China's economy, with retail
growing risks, while indicating additional rate cuts are unlikely. gold imports to US$2.3 bn, while exports sales up 4%, industrial production rising 5.9%, and fixed asset
declined by 10.8% to US$36.9bn. investment growing 4.1% y/y during January-February.
• Germany’s fiscal stimulus was approved, which is expected to However, property investment dropped nearly 10% y/y, and
drive economic growth in Germany and across Europe. unemployment reached a two-year high of 5.4%.
 The week ahead 4

Bloomberg consensus expectations Things to look out for…

Last 24.03 25.03 26.03 27.03 28.03
Rel Where What actual Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri US
94.3 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 57.9 57.9 • The core PCE growth (Fri) is likely to accelerate both m/m and y/y in February, amid higher
92.1 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 98.3 93.6 costs for goods, health care and financial services. This should help justify the Fed’s rate-
90.7 US Durable Goods Orders 3.2 -1.0 holding decision and the revised-up inflation outlook.
90.0 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 52.7 51.8
87.9 US New Home Sales 657.0 680.0 • Conference board’s consumer confidence (Tue) may show a decline in March, mainly
85.7 US Personal Spending -0.2 0.5 reflecting similar trends in the University of Michigan’s measures amid uncertainty in the
85.7 US Personal Income 0.9 0.4 economic outlook and policies .
80.7 US Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.8 1.0
76.4 US Pending Home Sales MoM -4.6 1.0
73.6 DE IFO Business Climate 85.2 86.8
72.9 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 6.0 0.0 Europe
72.6 US Durables Ex Transportation 0.0 0.2 • The UK February CPI (Wed) may stay steady while the core print could tick higher amid
72.0 EZ HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 47.6 48.2 higher costs of core goods. And Bloomberg projects higher inflation pressure in the near
70.0 US S&P Global US Composite PMI 51.6 51.3
term as energy and administered prices go up.
70.0 US S&P Global US Services PMI 51.0 51.0
70.0 US FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.4 0.3 • The Euro-area composite PMI, the Germany Ifo Business Climate survey and UK retail
67.5 DE HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI 46.5 47.0 sales are other key indicators to follow this week. German manufacturing has been ticking
63.8 JP Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY 2.2 2.2
up but hasn’t seen expansion territory since 2022.
63.6 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity 0.0 -0.2
63.0 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Mfg 48.3 -
63.0 IN HSBC India PMI Mfg 57.6 -
62.4 EZ M3 Money Supply YoY 3.6 3.8 Asia
62.0 DE Unemployment Change (000's) 5.0 10.0 • Australian February headline CPI (Wed) is likely to cool slightly amid modestly lower prices
61.4 US Core PCE Price Index YoY 2.6 2.7 of food and fuel – but this may not be enough for the RBA to cut anytime soon unless Q1
60.0 US Core PCE Price Index MoM 0.3 0.3 inflation shows meaningful declines.
59.1 DE IFO Expectations 85.4 87.9
58.5 EZ HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI 50.2 50.7 • Investors expect a small decline in Tokyo headline CPI (Fri) in March and an unchanged –
56.0 EZ HCOB Eurozone Services PMI 50.6 51.1 and potentially hotter – core inflation reading, which may tilt expectations of a BoJ hike
54.3 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.8 0.0 higher alongside the bigger-than-expected Spring wage increase.
51.1 JP Tokyo CPI YoY 2.8 2.7

Source: Bloomberg ECO function, data selected using weighting algorithm for relevance scores, US has 100% weighting, China, and Europe have 80%

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

 All about Gold
The week in review Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM)
• Gold rose three weeks in a row with the LBMA Gold Price PM climbing 1.2% to
US$3,014/oz last Friday, standing above the US$3,000/oz for the first time in history. Y-t-d,
gold has delivered a stunning return of 15%.

• Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) shows that momentum trading and lower yields
pushed gold higher. Continued US economic policy uncertainty and rising geopolitical
risks also boosted gold, captured in the “residual” in the weekly model.

• Gold has for now rejected technical Fibonacci resistance at $3,040/3,050/oz. Although this
and the overstretched condition warns of a potential pause, the core trend stays seen
higher (see page 6 overleaf).

The week ahead & key talking points COMEX positioning (tonnes)
• As the April 2 – when US will release its plan of reciprocal tariffs at all partners they
believe treat US exporters unfairly – approaches, safe-haven buying for gold may
continue. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks may provide additional boosts to gold should
they remain elevated.

• The US PCE reading might be a key data point for sentiment – should the print come in
higher as expected, investors may take a step back and re-assess future Fed rate
cutting anticipations. But emerging signs of stagflation risks (slide 15) amid intensifying
inflationary pressure and a gloomy outlook picture are also key to watch.

• Lastly, any development on details of the US crypto reserve funding plans may also
produce impacts on the market sentiment. See appendix for detail

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/comex-net-long-positioning
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
5
 Gold technicals
Gold rejects Fibonacci resistance at $3,040/$3,050

Gold (spot) - Weekly

Gold has extended its uptrend above the psychologically important $3,000 barrier for a test and rejection as we suspected of Resistance: Support:
Fibonacci resistance at $3,040/3,050 also now trend resistance from April 2024, seen a touch higher this week at $3,082. With
• 3050/3057** • 2982*
daily and weekly RSI momentum still unable to confirm the new highs and with the market nearly 15% above its 200-day average
(and several standard deviations) our bias remains for this to cap for now and for a consolidation phase to emerge. • 3082* • 2955
Long term the core trend stays seen higher, and such a phase if seen would be viewed as a healthy development in the long-term • 3100/3107* • 2880*
uptrend and we see no technical reason not to see a sustained move above $3,050 in due course with resistance seen at $3,082
• 3159 • 2849/2833**
initially ahead of $3,100/3,107 and eventually $3,350.
• 3200* • 2772
Initial support is seen at last weeks low and the 13-day exponential average at $2,982 below which would add weight to the
scenario for a pause. More important support though is seen at the late February low and rising 55-day average at $2,849 and
Resistance/Support tables rank objective importance of
$2,833 respectively. Only below this latter level would suggest technically a fresh corrective/consolidation phase can emerge. levels by stars *, **, to *** being the most important.

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

6
 Market performance and positioning
Asset Performance Positioning and Flows
Net long share of oi Forward returns: % above/below
Asset Friday close W/W % chg Y-t-d % chg W/W Z-score Wk corr W/W corr Δ 52w z-score
latest prior 4w 12w
Gold 3,013.7 1.20 15.51 0.31 1.00 0.00 23% 23% -0.61 59% 60%

Commodities and FX

Silver 33.0 -2.27 14.29 -0.89 0.78 0.10 24% 23% 2.51 50% 53%

Commodities 105.3 0.38 6.64 0.06 0.37 -0.08 -6% -5% 0.03 49% 49%

Oil 68.3 1.64 -4.80 0.44 0.12 -0.10 4% 5% -1.34 47% 51%

Dollar 104.1 0.36 -4.05 0.20 -0.44 0.04 -1% 36% 0.23 53% 51%

Equities

S&P 500 5,667.6 0.51 -3.64 0.30 -0.32 -0.29 -6% -6% 1.97 47% 49%

NASDAQ 17,784.1 0.17 -7.91 0.09 -0.31 -0.30 1% 2% 3.57 47% 48%

EuroStoxx 549.7 0.56 8.28 0.72 -0.10 -0.15

CSI300 3,914.7 -2.29 -0.51 -0.45 0.07 0.13

Sensex 76,905.5 4.17 -1.58 0.20 -0.04 -0.20

Nikkei 37,677.1 1.68 -5.56 0.30 -0.01 -0.04 10% 10% 1.66 43% 41%

MSCI EAFE 2,485.0 0.75 9.87 0.33 0.32 -0.11 0% 1% 0.16 46% 46%

MSCI EM 1,131.4 1.05 5.20 0.42 0.21 -0.02 -1% 0% -1.10 41% 36%

Fixed income

US 2y* 3.9 -0.07 -0.29 -0.71 -0.40 -0.55 47% 49% 0.35 49% 42%

US 10y* 4.2 -0.07 -0.32 -0.69 -0.25 -0.39 34% 34% 0.62 51% 51%

JPNY 10y* 1.5 0.01 0.43 -0.69 0.07 0.00

Other

Bitcoin 84,183.4 0.03 -10.17 -0.17 0.17 -0.01 -57% -61% -0.21 45% 40%

*Fixed income tickers are showing change in bps w/w and y-t-d not percentage change for market performance. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
7
 Key Resources 8

Goldhub
Tools for Professional Investors.

GRAM
Gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between the
gold price and its key drivers with our Gold Return Attribution
Model (GRAM).

QaurumSM GLTER
Determine gold’s implied returns under a range of scenarios. Our interactive, web-based tool
makes understanding gold’s performance easier and more intuitive. Gold’s Long-Term Expected Return. Setting out a framework to account
for Gold’s contribution to portfolio returns.

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

 9

Appendix 1
COMEX positioning (tonnes)

• Money manager net long:

622.56t

• Other net long:

212.78t

• Comex gold price (RHS):

US$3,041/oz

• Total net longs:

835.34t

Source: World Gold Council

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/comex-net-long-positioning
10
 Gold Drivers - The USD sell-off may have run its
course for now, with a small reversal in place
DXY - Weekly

The DXY has retested and essentially again held support form the 103.37 low of last November, reversing its brief move to a new low for the year to leave in place a small positive “reversal
week”. With daily RSI momentum also holding a small positive divergence (now shown) this suggests the sell-off has probably run its course for now and a rebound can be seen, even if this is
a temporary affair. Resistance for such a bounce is seen initially at the 200-day average at 104.96, then the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 fall at 105.86. Our bias would be for this
to prove the extent of a recovery and for the broader risk to then turn lower again. Below 103.37 in due course can see support at the potential uptrend from June 2021 and top of a small
base from last year at 101.93/74. Our bias would be to look for at least a temporary floor here.

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

11
 Gold Drivers – 10yr US Yields still hold mid-range
supports, but with the broader risk seen lower
10yr US Bond Yield - Weekly

10yr US Bond (and Real) Yields extend their stabilisation with the market still holding support from the middle of their broad sideways range at the December 2024 yield low, 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement of the September/January rise in yields and 200-day average at 4.23%/4.125%. With weekly MACD momentum having turned lower though (lower panel above) our overall bias
still leans lower in what is otherwise a sideways trend. On a sustained move below 4.125% we would then see yield support next at 3.93% and eventually more importantly at potential trend
support from early 2023, currently seen placed at 3.72%. Resistance at 4.50% capping would maintain a mildly lower yield risk in our view.

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

12
 The S&P 500 remains above key retracement
support, but a temporary hold only ?
S&P 500 - Weekly

A quieter week for the S&P 500 as the market extends its defence as expected of key technical support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023/2025 uptrend at 5,521. With the
volume picture having improved a touch our bias would be to still look for further stabilisation here and a test of resistance at the 200-day average, mid-January low and 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement of the February/March fall, all at 5,750/5,773. Whilst capped here the current rebound can be seen as a temporary bounce only ahead of a sustained break below 5,520 in due
course to warn of further weakness for the US equity market with support then seen next at 5,403, then more importantly at 5,133/5,119. A close above 5,773 though would suggest a more
concerted recovery can emerge, but with tough resistance then expected at the 61.8% retracement and 63-day moving average at 5,902/5,922.

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

13
 Key Technical data

Last YTD High YTD Low 55-day sma 200-day sma 9-week RSI

Gold $3022 $3057 $2615 $2849 $2632 77.14%

S&P 500 5668 6147 5505 5917 5750 35.49%

Nasdaq 100 19754 22223 19153 211001 20293 34.44%

10yr US Yield 4.25% 4.81% 4.10% 4.47% 4.23% 40.73%

DXY 104.09 110.18 103.20 106.90 104.96 36.92%

Brent Crude $72.16 $82.63 $68.33 $75.07 $76.53 42.34%

Copper $9855 $10047 $8766 $9389 $9367 67.60%

RSI levels in red highlight overbought/oversold extremes

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

14
 Last week’s ECO data, and surprises
17.03 18.03 19.03 20.03 21.03
Rel Where What Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
93.6 US Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.2
89.3 US Industrial Production MoM 0.8
88.6 US Housing Starts 1501.0
86.4 US Existing Home Sales 4.3
84.3 US Empire Manufacturing -20.0
82.9 US Leading Index -0.3
77.9 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 12.5
76.1 EZ CPI YoY 2.3
72.1 DE ZEW Survey Expectations 51.6
70.7 DE ZEW Survey Current Situation -87.6
69.2 JP Industrial Production MoM -1.1
68.3 EZ CPI MoM 0.4
65.5 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.3
65.4 JP Natl CPI YoY 3.7
62.5 US Capacity Utilization 78.2
62.3 JP Core Machine Orders MoM -3.5
60.8 JP Tertiary Industry Index MoM -0.3
56.6 EZ CPI Core YoY 2.6
55.4 CN Industrial Production YTD YoY 5.9
55.3 IN Exports YoY -10.9
52.3 CN Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY 4.1
51.6 IN Wholesale Prices YoY 2.4
50.8 CN Retail Sales YTD YoY 4.0
50.7 US Existing Home Sales MoM 4.2
47.9 US NAHB Housing Market Index 39.0
44.6 CN 1-Year Loan Prime Rate 3.1
40.5 IN Imports YoY -16.3
40.0 CN 5-Year Loan Prime Rate 3.6
36.4 US Housing Starts MoM 11.2
34.3 US Building Permits MoM -1.2

Table shows data releases from Bloomberg with colour denoting actual vs expected by Bloomberg contributor Chart shows the intersection of economic and inflation data surprises with the 3m mov avg of surprises as a
estimates (e.g green: actual beat survey expectations) Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council small dot and the latest Friday reading as a large dot. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

15
 Weekly COMEX futures positioning data
16

Report Producer Positions Changes Swap Positions Changes

Date Long Short Net ton mm US$bn mm Net ton Δ m/m Δ US$bn Δ m/m Δ Long Short Net ton mm US$bn mm Net ton Δ m/m Δ US$bn Δ m/m Δ
07/01/25 86.1 303.6 -217.5 -$18.5 0.0 101.1 749.7 -648.6 -$55.2 0.0
14/01/25 122.7 348.5 -225.8 -$19.4 -8.3 -0.9 93.5 807.4 -713.8 -$61.5 -65.2 -6.2
21/01/25 127.4 375.6 -248.2 -$21.9 -22.3 -2.5 92.4 868.1 -775.7 -$68.5 -61.9 -7.0
28/01/25 123.1 374.5 -251.4 -251.4 -$22.3 -$22.3 -3.2 -33.9 -0.4 -$3.8 91.1 868.8 -777.7 -777.7 -$69.1 -$69.1 -1.9 -129.0 -0.6 -$13.9
04/02/25 132.5 330.1 -197.6 -$18.1 53.8 4.3 63.9 909.3 -845.4 -$77.3 -67.7 -8.2
11/02/25 146.5 334.1 -187.6 -$17.5 9.9 0.6 54.5 856.4 -801.9 -$74.7 43.5 2.6
18/02/25 154.5 335.4 -180.9 -$17.1 6.7 0.4 45.6 802.3 -756.6 -$71.4 45.3 3.3
25/02/25 141.2 319.3 -178.1 -178.1 -$16.7 -$16.7 2.9 73.3 0.4 $5.6 37.7 778.0 -740.3 -740.3 -$69.4 -$69.4 16.4 37.4 2.0 -$0.3
04/03/25 144.4 316.6 -172.2 -$16.2 5.8 0.5 42.3 732.9 -690.6 -$64.8 49.7 4.6
11/03/25 143.2 311.4 -168.2 -$15.8 4.0 0.4 49.1 726.7 -677.6 -$63.5 13.0 1.3
18/03/25 154.6 344.0 -189.4 -$18.5 -21.3 -2.7 42.2 768.5 -726.3 -$70.9 -48.7 -7.3
Contracts 49,690 110,597 -60,907 -6,834 13,557 247,074 -233,517 -15,654

Report Managed Money Positions Changes Other Positions Changes

Date Long Short Net ton mm US$bn mm Net ton Δ m/m Δ US$bn Δ m/m Δ Long Short Net ton mm US$bn mm Net ton Δ m/m Δ US$bn Δ m/m Δ
07/01/25 643.0 38.0 605.0 $51.5 0.0 277.2 91.1 186.1 $15.8 0.0
14/01/25 689.3 28.4 660.9 $56.9 56.0 5.4 289.1 84.6 204.6 $17.6 18.5 1.8
21/01/25 746.2 17.3 729.0 $64.3 68.0 7.4 313.6 99.5 214.1 $18.9 9.6 1.3
28/01/25 755.3 38.1 717.2 717.2 $63.7 $63.7 -11.7 112.3 -0.6 $12.2 323.2 88.2 235.0 235.0 $20.9 $20.9 20.9 48.9 2.0 $5.0
04/02/25 793.3 77.2 716.1 $65.4 -1.1 1.7 342.1 93.5 248.6 $22.7 13.6 1.8
11/02/25 757.1 86.6 670.5 $62.5 -45.6 -3.0 334.8 92.0 242.8 $22.6 -5.8 -0.1
18/02/25 720.9 92.7 628.2 $59.3 -42.3 -3.2 318.8 92.3 226.5 $21.4 -16.3 -1.2
25/02/25 695.0 90.5 604.5 604.5 $56.7 $56.7 -23.7 -112.7 -2.6 -$7.1 315.6 88.3 227.3 227.3 $21.3 $21.3 0.8 -7.7 -0.1 $0.4
04/03/25 675.1 107.3 567.9 $53.3 -36.7 -3.4 295.2 88.6 206.6 $19.4 -20.7 -1.9
11/03/25 670.7 104.1 566.6 $53.1 -1.3 -0.2 273.8 87.5 186.3 $17.5 -20.4 -1.9
18/03/25 732.2 109.6 622.6 $60.7 56.0 7.6 310.8 98.0 212.8 $20.8 26.5 3.3
Contracts 235,409 35,252 200,157 18,006 99,932 31,522 68,410 8,528

Data as of 18 March 2025. Table only shows reportable positions. Slide 10 shows non-reportable net tonnes.
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Weekly ETF Flows

Source: World Gold Council

17
Year-to-date ETF Flows

Source: World Gold Council

18
Gold market trading volumes

Source: World Gold Council

19
 20

Appendix 2
Glossary of Technical Analysis terms
 Technical Analysis Glossary
Advance/Decline Line A popular type of Breadth Indicator (see below) which represents the cumulative number of individual stocks in a broader index that have risen during a session,
against those in the index that have fallen.

Bar chart A bar chart shows the open, close, low and high of the price of an instrument over a specific time-period. A vertical bar shows the low to high move, with the open
a small horizontal bar to the left of the vertical line and with the close a small horizontal bar to the right.

Bollinger Bands Shows bands that represent 2 standard deviations above and below a central move moving average, typically a 20 period average. The bands are expected to
typically capture 95% of price action under normal conditions.

Breath Indicators Breath indicators describe a range of indicators that aim to show the internal strength of a specific equity market index (see Advance/Decline line).

Candlestick chart A method of representing open/high/low/close data, originally from Japan. The candlestick (or candle) is formed of a rectangle which represents
the open to close move, called the real body, with this shaded different colours depending on whether a higher or lower close was seen for the session. The low
and high are shown as vertical lines above and below the real body/rectangle.

Continuation Pattern A pattern that indicates a consolidation phase which is a pause within the direction of the current prevailing trend.

Divergence When two separate measures behave differently. For example, when a new high or low in price is not confirmed/matched by a corresponding new high or low in
a momentum indicator, hence showing a divergence.

Double Top/Bottom A Double Top is a type of Reversal Pattern (see below) formed during an uptrend when two price highs occur at approximately the same level. Completion of the
pattern is signalled when the “neckline” to the pattern (see below) is broken. A Double Bottom is the exact opposite setup.

Fibonacci retracements Horizontal lines that can indicate where support and resistance can potentially be found when a market retraces following a trending move. The percentage
value shown is how much of the prior trend the price has retraced. The Fibonacci retracement levels typically shown are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6%.

Fibonacci projections Horizontal lines that can indicate where support and resistance can potentially be found in the direction of the current trend. The percentage values are applied
to the prior trending move, projected off the low/high of the subsequent corrective counter-trend move. The Fibonacci projection levels typically shown are 50%,
61.8%, 100%, 150% and 161.8%.

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

21
 Technical Analysis Glossary
Flag A Flag pattern in a classic continuation pattern, characterised by a sharp rise or fall (the flagpole) followed by a short-lived counter-trend move (the flag). They are
expected to be resolved in the direction of the prevailing trend.

Head & Shoulders Top/Bottom A Head & Shoulders price pattern is a classic trend reversal pattern that appears with three peaks, where the outside two are seen closer in height and the
middle peak is the highest. Completion of the pattern is signalled when the “neckline” to the pattern is broken (see below).

Measured Objective Most technical patterns, regardless of whether they are reversal or continuation patterns come with a “measured objective”, which is typically based on the size
or height of the pattern. The objective is a potential indication of where the price may move to after a pattern has been completed.

Momentum Momentum is the rate of acceleration or velocity of the underlying instrument/security. It is thus the speed at which the price of the security is changing.

MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following indicator, often also used as a momentum indicator. It shows the relationship between two
exponential moving averages of a security’s price, know as the MACD line, with an exponential average then taken off this line (the Signal line).

Moving Average A classic statistical moving average of the underlying price data of the security to give a guide to the direction of the prevailing price trend. Different periodicities
are used to define short-, medium- and long-term trends. Also used to identify potential areas of support and resistance.

Moving Average Envelope Shows bands which represent the percentage distance from a selected moving average, which can be used to identify potential support and resistance.

Neckline A trendline which marks the point where a reversal pattern is confirmed, typically found by connecting the lows/highs of the pattern.

OnBalanceVolume A cumulative volume indicator constructed by comparing the amount of volume traded seen on positive sessions to those on negative sessions.

Overbought An overbought condition occurs when a price rally has extended too far to fast and is seen unlikely to extend further and a pause is likely to be seen.

Oversold An oversold condition occurs when a price decline has extended too far to fast and is seen unlikely to extend further and a pause is likely to be seen.

Pennant A Pennant pattern is a type of continuation price pattern, formed when there is a sharp rise or fall (the flagpole), followed by a short consolidation period within
converging trend lines, similar in shape to a small triangle (the pennant). They are expected to be resolved in the direction of the prevailing trend.

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

22
 Technical Analysis Glossary
Rectangle A Rectangle pattern is a class of continuation price pattern where the price of a security is contained between two horizontal parallel trend lines, which is
followed by a breakout in the direction of the prevailing price trend.

Resistance Resistance is simply a potential high in the market for a period of time. Can be subjectively identified by a wide variety of potential measures, including old highs,
old lows, trendlines, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements and projections to name a few.

Reversal Pattern A class of pattern that can indicate when the underlying trend is reversing direction. Can be referred to as a top if the market is reversing an uptrend and a
bottom if reversing an underlying downtrend. Common pattern types include, Head & Shoulders, Double Tops & Bottoms, Triple Tops & Bottoms & many more.

Relative Strength The ratio between two financial instruments that shows which is outperforming or underperforming the other. Often used in portfolio construction.

RSI The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a type of momentum indicator that measures the speed of recent price changes. It can be used to identify overbought and
oversold conditions in both sideways and trending markets, typically when the indicator moves above 70 and below 30 respectively. It can also be used to
confirm trend direction and also identify potential trend when reversal when divergences between the RSI and price occur.

Support Support is simply a potential low in the market for a period of time. Can be subjectively identified by a wide variety of potential measures, including old lows,
old highs, trendlines, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements and projections to name a few.

Triangle Triangles cover a range of classic price continuation patterns, including symmetrical, ascending and descending triangle patterns. They represent a pause in the
underlying trend, with price action contained by trendlines in a triangular range. Resolution is followed by the resumption of the trend in the underlying direction.

Trend Channel Two parallel rising or falling trend lines (see below) which can be used to define the direction and potential support and resistance.

Trend Line A subjective line drawn to define the underlying trend and also highlight potential support and resistance. An uptrend line is drawn connecting price lows and is
only seen valid when there a minimum of 3 points of contact. A downtrend line is drawn connecting price highs and is again only seen valid when there are a
minimum of 3 points of contact.

Volume The total number of securities traded (bought or sold) over a specified time period. Typically used to confirm/non-confirm trend direction and can particularly
play an important role in identifying technical reversal and continuations patterns.

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

23
Important information and disclosures
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their
Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with individual circumstances with their appropriate investment
World Gold Council or its affiliates. Metals Focus. professionals before making any decision regarding any
Services or investments.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission
accuracy or completeness of any information nor accepts This information may contain forward-looking statements, such
of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been
responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”,
provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark
indirectly from the use of this information. or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on
Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for
current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-
the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which This information is for educational purposes only and by
looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties.
the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose.
There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements
property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a
will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no
to them. recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase
responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is
other products, services, securities or financial instruments Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation
expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World
(collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into Framework
Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as
account any investment objectives, financial situation or
specifically provided below. Information and statistics are Note that the resulting performance of various investment
particular needs of any particular person.
copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World outcomes that can generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold
Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in
herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved. does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not
necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting guarantees of future results.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the
performance of any investment outcomes that can be
purposes of review and commentary (including media Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford
generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature,
commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the
may not reflect actual investment results and are not
following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or functionality of the tool, including without limitation any
guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its
analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is projections, estimates or calculations.
affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and
accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where
models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes