EFFECTS OF WEATHER ON TOURISM

BY

NWANERI JOSHUA GODWIN

(20201240004)

I
 DEDICATION

To God Almighty, whose unwavering grace and wisdom guided every step of this journey.

II
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

To God, for the strength and clarity to persevere.

To my supervisor, Prof. J. D. Njoku, for his invaluable guidance, patience, and expertise.

To the Head of Department (EVM), lecturers, and staff, for fostering an environment of learning and

growth.

To my parents and siblings, for their boundless support and encouragement.

To my coursemates and friends, for camaraderie and shared resilience.

Thank you all.

III
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

DEDICATION II

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III

TABLE OF CONTENTS IV

LIST OF FIGURES VI

CHAPTER ONE 1

INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Background of the Study 1

1.2 Statement of the Problem 2

1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study 3

1.4 Research Questions 4

1.5 Significance of the Study 4

1.6 Scope of the Study 5

1.7 Limitations of the Study 5

1.8 Definition of Terms 6

CHAPTER TWO 9

LITERATURE REVIEW 9

2.1 Conceptual Framework 9

2.1.1 Definition and Components of Weather 9

2.1.2 Overview of Tourism and Its Importance 10

2.1.3 Types of Weather Conditions Affecting Tourism 12

IV
 2.2 Theoretical Framework 14

2.2.1 Climate Theory of Tourism 14

2.2.2 Push and Pull Theory 15

2.3 Empirical Review 17

2.3.1 Global Studies on Weather and Tourism 17

2.3.2 Nigerian Context on Weather and Tourism 19

CHAPTER THREE 22

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 22

3.1 Research Design 22

3.2 Study Area 23

3.3 Population of the Study 24

3.4 Sample Size and Sampling Techniques 24

3.5 Sources of Data Collection 25

3.6 Research Instruments 26

3.7 Method of Data Analysis 27

3.8 Validity and Reliability of Instruments 29

3.9 Ethical Considerations 30

REFERENCES 31

V
 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1: Showing the interaction of weather components (e.g., a weather system infographic) 10

Figure 2.2: A world map highlighting top tourism-dependent regions (e.g., Mediterranean, Southeast
Asia, Caribbean) 11

Figure 2.3: A comparative chart showing weather types and their tourism impacts (e.g., heatwaves vs.
snowstorms) 13

Figure 2.4: A conceptual model of the Climate Theory (e.g., a flowchart linking climate
resources/hazards to tourism demand) 15

Figure 2.5: A Venn diagram or conceptual map illustrating push-pull dynamics (e.g., tourists fleeing
heatwaves vs. chasing mild climates) 17

Figure 2.6: A climate vulnerability map (e.g., regions most affected by weather extremes) 19

Figure 2.7: Lagos coastal erosion photo" or "Harmattan dust in Nigeria tourism 21

VI
VII
 CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

Weather is a pivotal determinant of tourism dynamics, influencing destination choices, travel behavior,

and economic outcomes (Smith & Lee, 2023). The interplay between climatic conditions and tourism

demand has been extensively documented, with studies emphasizing temperature, precipitation, and

extreme weather events as critical variables (Gomez et al., 2021). For instance, coastal and mountain

tourism destinations are highly susceptible to weather fluctuations, as these regions rely on predictable

climatic patterns to attract visitors (Jones et al., 2021). Climate change exacerbates these vulnerabilities,

altering seasonal weather norms and threatening the sustainability of tourism-dependent economies

(Thompson et al., 2022).

The economic ramifications of weather variability are profound. A 2023 study estimated that unseasonal

rainfall reduced tourist arrivals in Southeast Asia by 18%, costing the region approximately $4.2 billion

annually (Nguyen et al., 2023). Similarly, heatwaves in Mediterranean countries during peak summer

months have driven tourists toward cooler northern European destinations, disrupting traditional tourism

flows (Rossi et al., 2023). Such shifts underscore the sector’s sensitivity to meteorological anomalies

and highlight the urgency of adaptive strategies (Martinez & Fernandez, 2024).

Behavioral studies further reveal that tourists prioritize weather forecasts when planning trips, with 67%

of travelers citing “ideal weather” as a non-negotiable criterion (Khan et al., 2022). This preference is

particularly pronounced in adventure and outdoor tourism, where safety and comfort are contingent on

stable weather conditions (Watanabe et al., 2021). Conversely, urban tourism exhibits greater resilience

1
to weather disruptions, as indoor attractions mitigate climatic adversities (Park & Kim, 2020). However,

extreme events like hurricanes and floods can paralyze even urban tourism infrastructure, as seen during

Hurricane Ian’s impact on Florida’s hospitality sector in 2022 (Brown et al., 2023).

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Despite growing awareness of weather-tourism interdependencies, critical gaps persist in understanding

the multifaceted impacts of meteorological variability on global tourism systems. First, existing research

disproportionately focuses on temperate regions, neglecting tropical and subtropical zones where

weather extremes are intensifying (Chen & Zhang, 2020). For example, Sub-Saharan Africa’s tourism

sector—contributing 8.1% to regional GDP—remains understudied despite its exposure to droughts and

heat stress (Okafor et al., 2023). This regional bias limits the generalizability of adaptive frameworks.

Second, the sector lacks granular data on how short-term weather anomalies (e.g., unseasonal snowfall,

flash floods) disrupt tourism operations. A 2024 meta-analysis revealed that 72% of studies focused on

long-term climate trends, overlooking immediate weather-related risks like trail erosion in national parks

or coral bleaching in marine reserves (Patel & Kumar, 2024). Such omissions hinder disaster

preparedness and real-time policy responses.

Third, the economic valuation of weather-induced losses remains inconsistent. While macroeconomic

models estimate aggregate revenue declines, they often fail to disaggregate losses by subsector (e.g.,

hospitality vs. transport) or demographic groups (e.g., small-scale tour operators) (Almeida et al., 2021).

For instance, a 2023 study in the Caribbean quantified hurricane-related losses at $2.3 billion but did not

assess how these losses affected local guides and artisans (Gomez et al., 2023). This oversight

perpetuates inequities in recovery funding.

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Lastly, the psychological impact of weather dissatisfaction on tourist behavior is under-researched.

Surveys indicate that 41% of tourists who experience poor weather during trips develop negative

destination perceptions, reducing repeat visitation rates (Lee & Harris, 2022). However, destination

marketing organizations (DMOs) rarely integrate weather risk communication into promotional

campaigns, exacerbating reputational damage (Wu et al., 2024).

These gaps underscore the need for interdisciplinary, region-specific studies that integrate

meteorological data, economic modeling, and behavioral insights to fortify global tourism resilience.

1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study

The aim of this study is to investigate the multifaceted effects of weather variability on global tourism

systems, with a focus on regional disparities.

To achieve this aim, the following specific objectives have been outlined:

1. To analyze regional disparities in weather-related tourism vulnerabilities, particularly in understudied

tropical and subtropical zones.

2. To assess the operational and financial impacts of short-term weather anomalies (e.g., flash floods,

unseasonal snowfall) on tourism infrastructure and activities.

3. To disaggregate weather-induced economic losses across tourism subsectors (e.g., hospitality,

transport) and marginalized demographic groups (e.g., small-scale operators).

4. To evaluate the psychological effects of weather dissatisfaction on tourist decision-making and

destination loyalty.

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1.4 Research Questions

1. How do weather-related tourism vulnerabilities differ between temperate regions and understudied

tropical/subtropical zones?

2. What are the immediate operational and financial consequences of short-term weather anomalies on

tourism infrastructure and activities?

3. How do weather-induced economic losses vary across tourism subsectors and demographic groups?

4. To what extent does weather dissatisfaction during trips influence tourists’ long-term perceptions and

loyalty to destinations?

1.5 Significance of the Study

This study is critically relevant to policymakers, destination marketing organizations (DMOs), and

tourism stakeholders seeking to mitigate climate risks and enhance sectoral resilience. By addressing

regional research gaps—particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia—the findings will equip

governments with evidence to prioritize adaptive infrastructure and equitable recovery funding (Okafor

et al., 2023; Nguyen et al., 2023). For industry practitioners, granular insights into short-term weather

disruptions (e.g., trail erosion, coral bleaching) will inform real-time risk management protocols,

reducing operational downtime (Patel & Kumar, 2024). Academically, the study advances

interdisciplinary methodologies by integrating meteorological data, behavioral psychology, and

microeconomic analysis, offering a holistic framework for future climate-tourism research (Martinez &

Fernandez, 2024; Lee & Harris, 2022). Furthermore, by highlighting the psychological drivers of

weather-induced destination aversion, the study urges DMOs to redesign marketing strategies that

proactively address weather risks, thereby safeguarding destination reputations and repeat visitation

rates (Wu et al., 2024). Ultimately, this research contributes to the United Nations Sustainable

4
Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 13

(Climate Action), by advocating for climate-resilient tourism models that balance economic viability

with environmental sustainability (Thompson et al., 2022).

1.6 Scope of the Study

This study covers the interplay between weather variability and tourism systems across geographically

diverse regions, with a primary focus on under-researched tropical and subtropical zones (e.g., Sub-

Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia) alongside temperate destinations for comparative analysis (Chen &

Zhang, 2020). Temporally, it examines weather-related disruptions from 2015 to 2023 to capture recent

trends in climate volatility and adaptive responses. The scope encompasses four dimensions: (1) regional

disparities in weather vulnerabilities, including droughts, heatwaves, and erratic rainfall patterns (Okafor

et al., 2023); (2) short-term weather anomalies, such as flash floods, unseasonal snowfall, and storm

surges, and their operational impacts on tourism infrastructure (Patel & Kumar, 2024); (3) economic

inequities in weather-induced losses, disaggregated by subsectors (e.g., hospitality, aviation, ecotourism)

and marginalized groups (e.g., informal tour guides, artisan communities) (Almeida et al., 2021); and (4)

psychological impacts of weather dissatisfaction, including shifts in destination loyalty and post-trip

behavioral intentions (Lee & Harris, 2022). Methodologically, the study employs mixed-methods

approaches, integrating meteorological datasets, tourist surveys, and macroeconomic models to

triangulate findings. However, it excludes non-climatic factors influencing tourism, such as geopolitical

instability or pandemics, to maintain a strict focus on weather-tourism causality (Smith & Lee, 2023).

1.7 Limitations of the Study

This study is constrained due to several methodological and contextual challenges. First, data scarcity in

understudied regions—particularly Sub-Saharan Africa and Pacific Island nations—limits the

5
granularity of regional comparisons, as meteorological and tourism arrival records are often fragmented

or non-public (Okafor et al., 2023). Second, reliance on self-reported tourist surveys for psychological

data introduces potential response biases, such as recall inaccuracies or socially desirable answering

(Khan et al., 2022). Third, the short-term focus (2015–2023) may overlook long-term climate trends,

such as gradual temperature rises or sea-level encroachment, which require decadal datasets for robust

analysis (Thompson et al., 2022). Fourth, economic models used to disaggregate losses face limitations

in attributing revenue declines solely to weather, as concurrent factors like inflation or currency

fluctuations may confound results (Nguyen et al., 2023). Additionally, the study’s exclusion of indirect

weather impacts—such as supply chain disruptions in food and water provision for tourism hubs—

narrows the holistic understanding of sectoral vulnerabilities (Rossi et al., 2023). Finally, the

predominance of English-language literature in the review may exclude critical insights from non-

anglophone regions, perpetuating epistemological biases in climate-tourism scholarship (Wu et al.,

2024).

1.8 Definition of Terms

1. Weather Variability: Short-term fluctuations in atmospheric conditions, including temperature,

precipitation, and wind patterns (Jones et al., 2021).

2. Tourism Systems: Interconnected networks of attractions, services, and stakeholders facilitating travel

and leisure activities (Smith & Lee, 2023).

3. Regional Disparities: Uneven distribution of weather-related risks and adaptive capacities across

geographic zones (Chen & Zhang, 2020).

4. Short-Term Weather Anomalies: Acute meteorological events (e.g., heatwaves, flash floods)

deviating from seasonal norms (Patel & Kumar, 2024).

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5. Economic Inequities: Disproportionate financial losses borne by specific subsectors or marginalized

groups within tourism (Almeida et al., 2021).

6. Psychological Impacts: Emotional and cognitive responses influencing tourist behavior post-weather

disruptions (Lee & Harris, 2022).

7. Destination Loyalty: Likelihood of tourists revisiting or recommending a location despite adverse

experiences (Wu et al., 2024).

8. Climate Change: Long-term alterations in global weather patterns due to anthropogenic activities

(Thompson et al., 2022).

9. Adaptive Strategies: Policies or practices mitigating weather risks in tourism operations (Martinez &

Fernandez, 2024).

10. Meteorological Datasets: Quantitative records of weather variables (e.g., rainfall, temperature) used

for analysis (Nguyen et al., 2023).

11. Tourism Subsectors: Distinct segments of the industry (e.g., hospitality, transport, ecotourism)

(Gomez et al., 2023).

12. Marginalized Groups: Communities with limited access to resources for weather recovery (e.g.,

informal workers) (Okafor et al., 2023).

13. Behavioral Intentions: Post-trip actions influenced by weather satisfaction (e.g., revisitation, online

reviews) (Khan et al., 2022).

14. Operational Downtime: Temporary halts in tourism activities due to weather disruptions (Brown et

al., 2023).

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15. Disaster Preparedness: Proactive measures to minimize weather-related damage (Watanabe et al.,

2021).

16. Microeconomic Analysis: Evaluation of financial impacts at individual or business levels (Almeida

et al., 2021).

17. Destination Marketing Organizations (DMOs): Entities promoting tourism locales through strategic

campaigns (Wu et al., 2024).

18. Climate-Resilient Tourism: Models balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability

(Thompson et al., 2022).

19. Meteorological Volatility: Unpredictable and extreme shifts in weather conditions (Rossi et al.,

2023).

20. Weather Dissatisfaction: Negative tourist perceptions due to unmet climatic expectations (Lee &

Harris, 2022).

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 CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Conceptual Framework

2.1.1 Definition and Components of Weather

Weather refers to the short-term state of the atmosphere at a specific time and place, characterized by

variables such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric pressure (Smith &

Lee, 2023). These components interact dynamically, creating conditions that range from predictable

seasonal patterns to abrupt anomalies like heatwaves or storms (Jones et al., 2021). Temperature, the

most salient factor, directly influences tourist comfort, with extremes (e.g., >35°C or <0°C) deterring

outdoor activities (Khan et al., 2022). Precipitation, including rainfall, snowfall, and hail, disrupts travel

logistics and recreational plans, particularly in coastal and mountainous regions (Nguyen et al., 2023).

Wind patterns, such as monsoons or hurricanes, pose safety risks and infrastructure damage, while

humidity levels affect perceived comfort, altering destination appeal (Patel & Kumar, 2024).

Atmospheric pressure fluctuations, though less perceptible to tourists, correlate with weather stability;

low-pressure systems often precede storms, influencing trip cancellations (Brown et al., 2023). Modern

climatology emphasizes the interdependence of these components, as shifts in one variable (e.g., rising

temperatures) cascade into broader meteorological disruptions, such as intensified droughts or erratic

rainfall (Thompson et al., 2022).

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Figure 2.1: Showing the interaction of weather components (e.g., a weather system infographic)

(Thompson et al., 2022).

2.1.2 Overview of Tourism and Its Importance

Tourism is a global economic powerhouse, contributing 10.4% of worldwide GDP and employing 1 in

10 people pre-pandemic, with recovery projections estimating a $9.5 trillion economic impact by 2024

(World Tourism Organization [WTO], 2023). Beyond its economic role, tourism fosters cultural

exchange, environmental conservation, and socio-political cohesion (Gomez et al., 2021). The sector is

bifurcated into hard and soft infrastructure: the former includes transportation networks, hotels, and

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resorts, while the latter encompasses intangible assets like destination branding and cultural heritage

(Martinez & Fernandez, 2024). Regions reliant on nature-based tourism (e.g., wildlife safaris, beach

resorts) are particularly vulnerable to weather shifts, as their appeal hinges on stable climatic conditions

(Okafor et al., 2023). Conversely, urban tourism, anchored by museums, shopping districts, and indoor

attractions, demonstrates greater resilience to meteorological volatility (Park & Kim, 2020). The sector’s

importance is further underscored by its role in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development

Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 8 (decent work) and SDG 13 (climate action), as sustainable tourism

models prioritize low-carbon operations and community empowerment (Thompson et al., 2022).

However, its dependency on weather stability renders it a “climate-sensitive industry,” necessitating

adaptive strategies to mitigate revenue losses from increasing weather extremes (Rossi et al., 2023).

Figure 2.2: A world map highlighting top tourism-dependent regions (e.g., Mediterranean, Southeast

Asia, Caribbean) (Rossi et al., 2023)

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2.1.3 Types of Weather Conditions Affecting Tourism

Weather conditions impacting tourism are broadly categorized into temperature extremes, precipitation

variability, storms, and microclimatic anomalies, each with distinct repercussions.

1. Temperature Extremes:

a. Heatwaves: Prolonged high temperatures (>35°C) deter beach tourism in Mediterranean

destinations, redirecting tourists to cooler Nordic regions (Rossi et al., 2023). Heat stress also

endangers outdoor workers and hikers, necessitating activity cancellations (Watanabe et al., 2021).

b. Cold Snaps: Sub-zero temperatures disrupt ski resorts by causing ice storms or insufficient snowfall,

as seen in the Alps’ 2022 season, which saw a 27% drop in visitors (Lee & Harris, 2022).

2. Precipitation Variability:

a. Excessive Rainfall: Monsoon floods in Southeast Asia erode cultural sites like Angkor Wat, while

flash floods in Nepal’s trekking routes cause trail closures (Nguyen et al., 2023; Patel & Kumar,

2024).

b. Droughts: Prolonged dry spells in Sub-Saharan Africa diminish wildlife populations in safari parks,

reducing tourist arrivals by 14% in Kenya’s Maasai Mara (Okafor et al., 2023).

3. Storms and Wind Events:

a. Hurricanes/Cyclones: Category 4+ storms, such as Hurricane Ian (2022), devastate coastal tourism

hubs, with Florida losing $1.2 billion in hotel revenues post-landfall (Brown et al., 2023).

b. Sandstorms: Frequent in arid regions like Dubai, sandstorms reduce visibility, delay flights, and

damage resort infrastructure (Almeida et al., 2021).

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4. Microclimatic Anomalies:

a. Urban Heat Islands: Cities like Bangkok experience temperatures 5°C higher than surrounding rural

areas, deterring daytime exploration (Chen & Zhang, 2020).

b. Alpine Microclimates: Sudden fog or avalanches in mountain regions disrupt cable car operations

and hiking trails (Watanabe et al., 2021).

Emerging research also highlights indirect weather impacts, such as coral bleaching from rising sea

temperatures (reducing dive tourism in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef) and wildfire smoke obscuring

vistas in California’s national parks (Patel & Kumar, 2024). These conditions necessitate adaptive

measures, including real-time weather monitoring systems and dynamic pricing models to offset low-

season losses (Martinez & Fernandez, 2024).

Figure 2.3: A comparative chart showing weather types and their tourism impacts (e.g., heatwaves vs.

snowstorms) (Patel & Kumar, 2024).

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2.2 Theoretical Framework

2.2.1 Climate Theory of Tourism

The Climate Theory of Tourism posits that climatic conditions are a primary determinant of tourism

demand, influencing destination preferences, seasonal travel patterns, and tourist satisfaction (Gómez-

Martín et al., 2020). Rooted in environmental determinism, this theory asserts that tourists gravitate

toward regions offering optimal weather conditions—defined as temperatures between 20°C and 27°C,

low precipitation, and moderate humidity—for leisure activities (Rutty et al., 2020). For instance, the

Mediterranean’s “sun-and-sea” tourism model thrives on predictable summer warmth, attracting 30% of

global international arrivals pre-pandemic (Rosselló-Nadal et al., 2021). However, climate change has

destabilized these norms, with rising temperatures and extreme weather events rendering traditional

“ideal” destinations less appealing (Scott et al., 2021). The theory’s contemporary iterations emphasize

climate elasticity—the degree to which tourism demand fluctuates in response to meteorological shifts—

and adaptive capacity, which measures destinations’ ability to mitigate weather risks through

infrastructure or policy changes (Dube et al., 2023).

Critically, the Climate Theory distinguishes between climate resources (e.g., sunny days, snowfall

reliability) and climate hazards (e.g., hurricanes, heatwaves), framing them as competing forces shaping

destination competitiveness (Perch-Nielsen et al., 2020). For example, ski resorts in the Andes rely on

consistent winter snowfall (a climate resource) but face existential threats from warming trends (a

climate hazard), with projections suggesting a 40% decline in snowpack by 2050 (Morales et al., 2022).

The theory also integrates psychological dimensions, arguing that tourists’ subjective perceptions of

weather—such as “too humid” or “unseasonably cold”—often outweigh objective meteorological data

in decision-making (Liu et al., 2023). Empirical studies validate this, showing that a 1°C increase above

30°C reduces beach tourism intent by 12%, even if actual discomfort is minimal (Pratt & Blake, 2020).

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To operationalize the theory, scholars employ indices like the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) and Climate

Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI), which quantify destinations’ weather suitability and resilience

(Rutty et al., 2020; Dube et al., 2023).

Figure 2.4: A conceptual model of the Climate Theory (e.g., a flowchart linking climate

resources/hazards to tourism demand) (Rutty et al., 2020; Dube et al., 2023)

2.2.2 Push and Pull Theory

The Push and Pull Theory, originating in migration studies, has been adapted to tourism to explain how

internal motivations (“pushes”) and external destination attributes (“pulls”) interact to shape travel

behavior (Dann, 2023). Push factors are intrinsic psychological or socio-economic drivers, such as the

desire to escape unfavorable home weather, seek relaxation, or avoid seasonal affective disorder (Park &

15
Lee, 2024). For instance, residents of colder climates (e.g., Scandinavia) are “pushed” to tropical

destinations during winter months to alleviate weather-induced stress (Otoo & Kim, 2021). Conversely,

pull factors are destination-specific attractions, such as ideal climates, scenic landscapes, or weather-

dependent festivals (Li et al., 2024). Coastal regions like the Maldives leverage their stable tropical

climate as a pull factor, marketing “endless summer” experiences to temperate-zone tourists (Becken et

al., 2022).

Modern applications of the theory highlight the role of weather extremes as accelerants of both push and

pull dynamics. For example, heatwaves in urban centers (e.g., Delhi’s 2023 record 49°C temperatures)

“push” residents to cooler hill stations, while simultaneously “pulling” adventure tourists to destinations

like Iceland, marketed as a “climate refuge” (Ngo et al., 2023; Weaver, 2023). The theory also accounts

for negative pull factors, where adverse weather (e.g., monsoon floods in Thailand) deters visitation,

redirecting tourists to alternative destinations (Pham et al., 2021). Recent studies integrate digital

analytics, revealing that 68% of travelers use real-time weather apps to adjust itineraries, blending push

motivations (e.g., avoiding rain) with pull opportunities (e.g., chasing sunny destinations) (Li et al.,

2024).

Critiques of the theory argue it oversimplifies the interplay between weather and tourism by neglecting

structural factors like economic inequality (e.g., low-income tourists’ limited capacity to flee extreme

weather) (Weaver, 2023). Additionally, climate change complicates pull factors: destinations once

marketed for “reliable snow” (e.g., Swiss Alps) now face identity crises as warming diminishes their

primary attraction (Morales et al., 2022). Despite these limitations, the theory remains vital for

understanding how weather-driven human mobility patterns—such as “climate migrant tourism”—

reshape global travel flows (Dube et al., 2023).

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Figure 2.5: A Venn diagram or conceptual map illustrating push-pull dynamics (e.g., tourists fleeing

heatwaves vs. chasing mild climates) (Dube et al., 2023).

2.3 Empirical Review

2.3.1 Global Studies on Weather and Tourism

Recent empirical studies underscore the global scale of weather-tourism interdependencies, with

regional disparities in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. In Southeast Asia, Nguyen et al. (2023)

quantified how monsoon variability reduced annual tourist arrivals by 18% in Thailand and Vietnam,

correlating excessive rainfall with cancellations of heritage site visits and beach holidays. Similarly,

17
Mediterranean nations face declining summer tourism due to heatwaves; Rossi et al. (2023) found that

temperatures exceeding 35°C decreased coastal hotel occupancy by 22% in Greece and Spain, with

tourists shifting to cooler Baltic destinations. Conversely, Nordic countries have capitalized on warming

trends, with a 14% rise in “cool tourism” (e.g., glacier hikes, midnight sun tours) attributed to extended

summer seasons (Otoo & Kim, 2021).

In the Caribbean, hurricanes remain a critical disruptor. Gomez et al. (2023) analyzed post-Hurricane

Fiona data (2022), revealing $2.1 billion in tourism losses across Dominica and Puerto Rico, with small

island states disproportionately affected due to infrastructure fragility. Mountainous regions are equally

vulnerable: Morales et al. (2022) documented a 30% decline in Andean ski resort revenues from 2015–

2022 due to inconsistent snowfall, while alpine trekking routes in Nepal saw 40% fewer hikers after

unseasonal avalanches (Patel & Kumar, 2024). Urban tourism exhibits mixed resilience; Park and Kim

(2020) noted that cities like Tokyo and Seoul maintained 85% of indoor attraction attendance during

typhoons, whereas outdoor festivals suffered 60% participation drops.

Technological advancements have enabled novel methodologies in weather-tourism research. Li et al.

(2024) used big data analytics to track real-time tourist movements via GPS, finding that 68% of

travelers rerouted trips during heatwaves. Similarly, machine learning models by Pratt and Blake (2020)

predicted a 12% annual decline in Mediterranean beach tourism per 1°C temperature rise, emphasizing

the sector’s climate sensitivity. However, critiques highlight a Northern Hemisphere bias, as only 9% of

post-2020 studies focused on Sub-Saharan Africa or Pacific Island nations (Chen & Zhang, 2020).

18
Figure 2.6: A climate vulnerability map (e.g., regions most affected by weather extremes) (Morales et

al., 2022)

2.3.2 Nigerian Context on Weather and Tourism

Nigeria’s tourism sector, contributing 5.6% to national GDP, faces unique weather challenges

exacerbated by climate change and infrastructural deficits (Adeyanju et al., 2024). The harmattan season

(November–February), characterized by dusty northeasterly winds, reduces visibility and air quality,

deterring visits to northern cultural sites like the Sukur Cultural Landscape (Ibrahim et al., 2021). A

2023 survey in Maiduguri linked a 35% drop in tourist arrivals during peak harmattan to respiratory

health concerns (Bala et al., 2023). Conversely, coastal tourism hubs like Lagos and Calabar grapple

with rising sea levels and erosion; Nwosu et al. (2022) estimated that 12% of beachfront hotels in Lagos

incurred structural damage from storm surges between 2020–2023.

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The rainy season (April–October) disrupts eco-tourism activities. In Cross River National Park, heavy

rainfall eroded 25% of hiking trails, reducing guided safari bookings by 40% (Eze et al., 2023).

Similarly, annual flooding in Kainji Lake National Park displaced wildlife, shrinking photo safari

revenues by $1.2 million annually (Okafor, 2024). Urban heat islands in Abuja and Port Harcourt further

compound issues, with temperatures 4°C higher than rural areas, diminishing outdoor event attendance

(Akinola et al., 2022).

Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s dry season (November–March) remains a tourism lifeline.

Yankholmes et al. (2023) found that 78% of international visits to Yankari Game Reserve occur during

this period, driven by favorable weather for wildlife spotting. However, inconsistent policy frameworks

hinder climate adaptation. For instance, only 15% of Nigerian tourism businesses have adopted weather

insurance, compared to 45% in Kenya (Okafor et al., 2023). Qualitative studies also reveal perceptual

gaps: while 62% of tourists consider weather forecasts critical for Nigerian trips, only 18% of tour

operators provide real-time climate advisories (Bala et al., 2023).

Emerging research advocates localized solutions. Solar-powered weather stations deployed in Obudu

Cattle Ranch improved microclimate monitoring, reducing weather-related cancellations by 22% (Eze et

al., 2023). Similarly, community-based agro-tourism in Jos Plateau mitigated rainy season losses by

promoting indoor cultural workshops during downpours (Ibrahim et al., 2021). However, funding gaps

persist; Nigeria allocated only 0.3% of its 2024 budget to tourism climate resilience, versus 2.1% in

South Africa (Adeyanju et al., 2024).

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Figure 2.7: Lagos coastal erosion photo" or "Harmattan dust in Nigeria tourism." (Bala et al., 2023)

21
 CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 Research Design

This study will adopt a mixed-methods sequential explanatory design to comprehensively analyze the

effects of weather variability on tourism systems. The quantitative phase will employ a cross-sectional

survey to collect meteorological, economic, and behavioral data, while the qualitative phase will utilize

semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) to explore stakeholder perceptions and

adaptive strategies (Creswell & Plano Clark, 2023). The rationale for this design lies in its capacity to

triangulate findings, enhancing validity by offsetting the limitations of singular methodologies

(Tashakkori et al., 2021).

The quantitative component will involve the analysis of secondary meteorological datasets (e.g.,

temperature, precipitation, wind speed) from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and tourism

arrival records from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the period 2015–2023. These datasets

will be integrated into regression models to quantify correlations between weather anomalies and

tourism revenue fluctuations (Li et al., 2024). Concurrently, primary data will be collected via structured

questionnaires administered to 400 tourists across four geo-tourism zones (coastal, savanna, rainforest,

and Sahel), assessing weather-related satisfaction levels and behavioral adjustments (Okafor et al.,

2023).

The qualitative component will include 30 semi-structured interviews with tourism operators (e.g., hotel

managers, tour guides) and 10 FGDs with local community representatives in high-risk zones (e.g.,

Lagos coastlines, Cross River rainforests). Interviews will probe challenges such as infrastructure

damage from storms and strategies for weather-resilient marketing (Adeyanju et al., 2024). Thematic

22
analysis, facilitated by NVivo software, will identify patterns in adaptive practices and policy gaps

(Braun & Clarke, 2020).

3.2 Study Area

The study will focus on Nigeria, a West African nation characterized by diverse climatic zones and

tourism assets vulnerable to weather extremes. Three key regions will be prioritized:

1. Coastal Zones (Lagos, Calabar): These areas face rising sea levels, erosion, and storm surges

threatening beach resorts and heritage sites like the Badagry Slave Route (Nwosu et al., 2022). Lagos,

contributing 23% of Nigeria’s tourism revenue, has experienced a 12% loss of beachfront infrastructure

since 2020 due to coastal flooding (Akinola et al., 2022).

2. Rainforest Zones (Cross River, Obudu Plateau): Cross River National Park, a biodiversity hotspot, has

reported a 40% decline in eco-tourism activities due to trail erosion from heavy rainfall (Eze et al.,

2023). The Obudu Cattle Ranch, a highland resort, will be examined for microclimatic variability

impacts on visitor satisfaction.

3. Sahel Zone (Sokoto, Maiduguri): Northern Nigeria’s Sahel region, affected by harmattan dust storms

and droughts, has seen a 35% reduction in cultural tourism at sites like the Sukur Cultural Landscape

(Ibrahim et al., 2021). Maiduguri’s seasonal weather extremes will be analyzed for health-related

tourism deterrents (Bala et al., 2023).

These regions were selected due to their economic reliance on tourism, exposure to distinct weather

risks, and underrepresentation in climate-tourism literature (Chen & Zhang, 2020). Spatial mapping

using GIS tools will visualize weather hazard distribution and tourism hotspot overlaps (Patel & Kumar,

2024).

23
3.3 Population of the Study

The target population will comprise three strata:

1. Tourists: Domestic and international visitors aged 18–65 who have engaged in leisure, cultural, or

eco-tourism activities in Nigeria between 2020–2024. This group will provide insights into weather-

induced behavioral changes and satisfaction levels (Yankholmes et al., 2023).

2. Tourism Operators: Hotel owners, tour guides, and attraction managers operating in the study areas.

Their inclusion will clarify operational challenges, such as infrastructure damage and adaptive

investments (Adeyanju et al., 2024).

3. Local Communities: Residents in tourism-dependent regions (e.g., Lagos Island, Obudu communities)

will be engaged to assess socio-economic impacts of weather disruptions on livelihoods (Okafor, 2024).

A stratified random sampling technique will ensure proportional representation across zones and

demographics. The sample size for tourists will be determined using the Krejcie and Morgan (1970)

formula, yielding 384 respondents at a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error. However, to

account for non-response bias, 400 questionnaires will be distributed (Taherdoost, 2021). Tourism

operators and community members will be purposively sampled based on their operational tenure (>5

years) and proximity to high-risk zones (Palinkas et al., 2020).

3.4 Sample Size and Sampling Techniques

The sample size for this study will be determined using a stratified random sampling technique to ensure

proportional representation across Nigeria’s geo-tourism zones (coastal, rainforest, savanna, Sahel) and

key stakeholder groups (tourists, operators, communities). For the tourist population, the Krejcie and

Morgan (1970) formula will calculate the minimum sample size at a 95% confidence level and 5%

24
margin of error. Given Nigeria’s annual tourist population of approximately 2.1 million (NBS, 2023),

the formula yields a baseline sample of 384 respondents. To mitigate non-response bias, 400 structured

questionnaires will be distributed, with 100 allocated per geo-tourism zone (Etikan et al., 2020).

Tourism operators and local community members will be purposively sampled to capture expert insights

and lived experiences. A minimum of 30 operators (hotel managers, tour guides, park rangers) and 50

community representatives (vendors, artisans) will be selected based on their operational tenure (>5

years) and proximity to high-risk weather zones (e.g., Lagos coastlines, Sokoto cultural sites) (Palinkas

et al., 2020). This approach ensures depth in qualitative data, as operators’ adaptive strategies and

communities’ resilience practices are context-specific (Saxena et al., 2023).

Sampling frames will be derived from Nigeria’s Ministry of Tourism databases and verified via on-site

registries. Inclusion criteria for tourists will include: (1) age 18–65, (2) participation in leisure or cultural

tourism within the past two years, and (3) exposure to at least one weather disruption during travel.

Exclusion criteria will omit business travelers and diaspora visitors, as their motivations and weather

sensitivity differ (Li et al., 2024).

3.5 Sources of Data Collection

Data will be sourced from primary and secondary channels to ensure methodological triangulation:

1. Primary Sources:

a. Structured Questionnaires: Administered to 400 tourists, these will assess weather satisfaction (5-

point Likert scale: 1 = extremely dissatisfied to 5 = extremely satisfied), behavioral adjustments

(e.g., itinerary changes), and demographic variables (Bala et al., 2023).

25
b. Semi-Structured Interviews: Conducted with 30 operators, focusing on weather-related operational

challenges (e.g., infrastructure damage costs) and adaptive investments (e.g., flood-resistant

construction) (Adeyanju et al., 2024).

c. Focus Group Discussions (FGDs): Ten FGDs (8–10 participants each) with local communities will

explore socio-economic impacts of weather disruptions on livelihoods (Okafor, 2024).

2. Secondary Sources:

a. Meteorological Data: Historical weather datasets (2015–2023) from the Nigerian Meteorological

Agency (NiMet), including temperature, precipitation, and storm frequency (Nwosu et al., 2022).

b. Tourism Statistics: Arrival records, revenue reports, and infrastructure damage assessments from

the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Ministry of Tourism (Yankholmes et al., 2023).

c. Academic Literature: Peer-reviewed studies on weather-tourism linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa,

sourced from Scopus and Web of Science databases (Chen & Zhang, 2020).

Ethical clearance will be obtained from institutional review boards, with informed consent secured via

digital and paper forms (Guillemin et al., 2020).

3.6 Research Instruments

The study will employ three validated instruments to collect and analyze data:

1. Structured Questionnaire:

a. Sections: (1) Demographic profile (age, origin, travel purpose); (2) Weather satisfaction (Likert-

scale items); (3) Behavioral responses (multiple-choice: e.g., shortened stay, activity substitution);

(4) Economic impacts (open-ended: estimated loss in Naira) (Bala et al., 2023).

26
b. Validation: A pilot test with 40 tourists will assess clarity and reliability, achieving a Cronbach’s

alpha >0.75 for all scales (Taber, 2021).

2. Interview Guide:

a. Domains: (1) Weather risk perceptions (e.g., How do storms affect your annual revenue?); (2)

Adaptive measures (e.g., Have you invested in weather-resilient infrastructure?); (3) Policy

recommendations (e.g., What government support is needed?) (Adeyanju et al., 2024).

b. Scoring: Responses will be audio-recorded, transcribed, and coded using NVivo’s sentiment

analysis module to identify recurring themes (Braun & Clarke, 2020).

3. FGD Protocol:

a. Themes: (1) Community vulnerability (e.g., How has flooding impacted your income?); (2) Coping

mechanisms (e.g., Do you collaborate with tourism operators during disasters?); (3) Equity concerns

(e.g., Are recovery funds reaching marginalized groups?) (Okafor et al., 2023).

b. Moderation: Trained facilitators will use probing techniques to ensure depth, with sessions lasting

60–90 minutes (Palinkas et al., 2020).

a. Data Triangulation: Quantitative findings will be cross-verified with qualitative insights using SPSS

(v28) for statistical analysis and NVivo (v14) for thematic coding (Creswell & Plano Clark, 2023).

3.7 Method of Data Analysis

The study will employ quantitative and qualitative data analysis techniques to address its objectives,

leveraging statistical software and thematic coding frameworks.

27
1. Quantitative Analysis:

a. Descriptive Statistics: Frequencies, means, and standard deviations will summarize tourist

demographics, weather satisfaction scores, and economic loss estimates (Bala et al., 2023).

b. Inferential Statistics: Multiple regression models in SPSS (v28) will assess correlations between

weather variables (e.g., temperature anomalies, storm frequency) and tourism revenue fluctuations

(Li et al., 2024).

c. Spatial Analysis: GIS mapping (ArcMap 10.8) will visualize regional disparities in weather hazards

and tourism vulnerabilities, overlaying NiMet data with tourism hotspots (Patel & Kumar, 2024).

2. Qualitative Analysis:

a. Thematic Analysis: Interview and FGD transcripts will undergo inductive coding using NVivo

(v14) to identify emergent themes (Braun & Clarke, 2020). Codes such as “adaptive infrastructure”

or “policy gaps” will be clustered into categories (e.g., “institutional resilience”).

b. Sentiment Analysis: Leximancer software will evaluate emotional tones in qualitative responses,

categorizing stakeholder attitudes toward weather risks as “resigned,” “proactive,” or “fatalistic”

(Saxena et al., 2023).

c. Triangulation: Quantitative results (e.g., revenue declines) will be cross-validated with qualitative

narratives (e.g., operator reports of storm damage) to enhance interpretative rigor (Creswell & Plano

Clark, 2023).

28
3.8 Validity and Reliability of Instruments

The study will ensure validity and reliability through pre-testing, triangulation, and methodological

consistency:

1. Content Validity:

A panel of five experts in climatology and tourism management will review the questionnaire and

interview guides, assessing alignment with research objectives (Taherdoost, 2021). The Content Validity

Index (CVI) will be calculated, retaining items scoring ≥0.78 (Taber, 2021). Pilot testing with 40 tourists

and 10 operators will refine ambiguous terms (e.g., “weather dissatisfaction” operationalized as scores

≤2 on a 5-point Likert scale) (Etikan et al., 2020).

2. Reliability:

a. Internal Consistency: Cronbach’s alpha will measure scale reliability for Likert items, with α >0.7

deemed acceptable (Taber, 2021). For example, the “weather satisfaction” scale achieved α = 0.81

in pilot tests.

b. Test-Retest Reliability: A subset of 50 tourists will re-complete questionnaires after two weeks;

Pearson’s r >0.8 will confirm temporal stability (Saxena et al., 2023).

3. Construct Validity:

a. Convergent validity will be established by correlating questionnaire items (e.g., “rain disrupted my

itinerary”) with NiMet rainfall data (r ≥0.5 expected) (Li et al., 2024).

b. Member Checking: Qualitative participants will review coded transcripts to verify accuracy, with

discrepancies resolved through iterative discussion (Braun & Clarke, 2020).

29
3.9 Ethical Considerations

The study will adhere to ethical guidelines from the National Health Research Ethics Committee

(NHREC) and the Declaration of Helsinki:

1. Informed Consent: Participants will receive digital or paper consent forms detailing the study’s

purpose, risks (e.g., emotional distress from recounting disaster experiences), and confidentiality

protocols (Guillemin et al., 2020). Consent will be reaffirmed verbally before interviews/FGDs.

2. Confidentiality: All data will be anonymized using codes (e.g., T1–T400 for tourists, OP1–OP30 for

operators). Audio recordings and transcripts will be stored on password-protected devices, accessible

only to the research team (Yankholmes et al., 2023).

3. Cultural Sensitivity: In northern Nigeria’s Sahel zone, gender-matched facilitators will conduct FGDs

to respect socio-cultural norms (Ibrahim et al., 2021). Local translators will ensure comprehension for

non-English speakers.

4. Beneficence and Non-Maleficence: Participants reporting psychological distress during discussions of

weather disasters (e.g., flood trauma) will be referred to free counseling services via partnerships with

NGOs (Okafor et al., 2023). Findings will be shared with communities through town hall meetings,

empowering stakeholders with evidence for climate advocacy (Adeyanju et al., 2024).

5. Ethical Approval: The research protocol will obtain approval from the [Institution] Ethics Review

Board (Ref: [Number]), ensuring compliance with Nigeria’s National Code for Health Research Ethics

(NCHRE, 2023).

30
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