Decision Science Assignment
Question No 1
Introduction
The Circumstances for finding the probability is given that, Garuda is in the final season of Indian
Premier League. Raj Kaul, an expert has assigned a probability of 60% that Garuda will win based on
his study of the current scenario. Past records indicate that when teams win the championship, they
win the first game of the series 70% of the time. When they lose the series, they win the first game
25% of the time.
The number one match has existed determined, and their group has both existed crushed or finish at
the misplaced end. As a result, the phrase "this is W: A circumstance or incidence unspecified place
organization Garuda wins the succession" presentations the opportunity that they'll reach their
contest.
The "L" synopsis turned into exhausted while Garuda turned into crushed of their order.
The ultimate possible impact is that Garuda wins the primary sport.
Let's conceive, for the reason of debate, that the Garuda group finally ends up falling the primary
sport they play.
Concept
When making decisions, it is natural to start by organizing the information you have. This will help
you to better understand what you know and what you need to find out.The information that has
been gathered consists mostly of facts that are different in nature. These facts primarily state that
certain events happened in a specific order, that corresponding values were measured, and so
on.There are also facts based on predetermined natural-scientific laws of the macro-world and
mathematical laws (the relationship between speed and acceleration, between the radius of a circle
and its area).When discussing probability, it is only logical to use a value of one. Any other value
would be inaccurate and would not make sense.
Follows that if P (W) = 0.6, then p (L) = 1-0.6 = 0.4
Assuming p (F'/W) = 1-0.70 = 0.3 and p (F/W) = 0.70, this corresponds to a probability of
0.30.
Given that p (F'/L) = 1/0.25 = 0.75 when p (F/L) = 0.25
Following are the Tree- Diagram :
Prob. Of Win Series and
Loosing 1st game
0.30
Win Series
0.6
Prob. Of Win Series and
Win 1st game
0.70
Garuda
Prob. Of loosing Series
and loosing 1st game
0.75
Loss Series
0.4
Prob. Of loosing Series
and winning 1st game
0.25
The statistical data that can be gleaned from a set of numerical data can tell us things like how often
certain events happen in certain situations.This means that estimates of probabilities are included
when facts are gathered together to form statistical models.The frequencies can be used as
estimates of probabilities in many decision-making algorithms.Probability estimates are essentially
hypotheses that correspond to reality to a greater or lesser extent - not facts, although they are
based on facts.Suppose, for example, that data is collected about whether a person was burned
after taking the first sip of liquid from a cup.If that is the case, then the total number of incidents and
the number of burns are facts. However, the estimate of the likelihood of such an event happening
in the future is a hypothesis and may change as more data is collected.
The important component withinside the macro-international is that the probabilistic nature of
occasions reflects, in maximum cases, now no longer the essential capabilities of the surroundings or
the method however the outcome that statistics similar to exceptional conditions are gathered in a
single set. In our case (a burn from the primary sip), data approximately what type of liquid they
drink considerably modifications the state of affairs. If it's far beer or glowing water, then there may
be no burns at all. Adding the end result of measuring the temperature of the liquid to the state of
affairs description turns the method into a very deterministic one.
The decision of the probability tree is as follows:
The Required probability is p (W/F)
P (W/F’) = p (WՈ F’) / P (F’)
0.18 / 0.18 +0.3
0.180 / 48
0.375
Conclusion
Decision-making techniques with out the use of possibility estimates are the problem of one of the
following chapters.
SUMMATION
The defined structure permits using a probabilistic technique to choice making.
It is irrational to endow every ratio with an characteristic of possibility since, for a huge fraction of
them, the possibility is identical to one.
The use of choice-making algorithms primarily based totally on estimates of possibility additionally
calls for an alternative "spare" method.
The naive choice of refining the possibility estimates as those estimates are used for choice-making
can result in the improvement of strong estimates which are substantially one of a kind from the real
values, main to non-most effective behavior.
The most effective answer does now no longer constantly rely upon the possibility of consequences.
There are methods to choice-making that don't use estimates of the probability of consequences.
Question No. 2
Introduction
In regression analysis, a model is created that describes the relationships between a response
variable and one or more predictor variables. This model can then be used to make predictions
about the response variable, based on the values of the predictor variables.A regression model can
be used to understand how changes in the predictor values are associated with changes in the
response mean. This can be helpful in understanding the relationship between different variables
and how they affect each other.You can use regression to make predictions based on the values of
the predictors.
The type of response variable, the type of model, and the estimation method all play a role in
choosing the right regression methodology.
Concept
Calculations of Regression Analysis:
X Y X*Y χ2 y²
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
4 5 20 16 25
4 5 20 16 25
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
3 5 15 9 25
5 5 25 25 25
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
3 4 12 9 16
3 4 12 9 16
4 4 16 16 16
2 4 8 4 16
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
2 3 6 4 9
2 2 4 4 4
2 2 4 4 4
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
3 1 3 9 1
1 1 1 1 1
Sum = 86 Sum = 93 Sum = 340 Sum=320 Sum=377
With the given data
n
X ¿ 1/n ∑ Xi
i=0
= 86 /27 = 3.185185
n
Y ¿ 1/n ∑ Yi
i=0
= 93/27 = 3.444444444
n
1
SSxx=∑ X 2 − ¿
i=1 N
= 320 - 86 2 / 27 = 46.0740
n
1
SSyy=∑ Y 2− ¿
i=1 N
= 377 - 93 2/27 = 56.66666
Therefore,
n n
1
SSxy=∑ X i Y i – ¿ (1/n ∑ Yi ¿
i=1 n i=0
= 93/27 = 43.777
As a result, using the computations above, the regression coefficients (the inclination m and the Y-
intercept n) were just as follows:
M = SSxy / SSxx = 43.77777/ 46.074074
= 0.9502
N = Y – X *m = 3.4444444- 3.185185185 *0.9502
= 0.418
Through this, the regression equation is = Y = 0.418 + 0.9502 X .Therefore, based on the information
provided above, the following scatter plot and regression plot are obtained:
The Line of regression Y on X is
Y = 0.418 + 0.9502 X
Therefore, based on the information provided above, the following scatter plot and regression plot
are obtained:
Part 1:
Look for patterns and trends in your data A linear approximation is used or an exact fit. A decision is
made about the feasibility and correctness of the design It is easy to imagine how contracts could
benefit from relying on reversal forecasting in the future to improve contract management. There
are certain types of reverse reasoning, the last of which are invariant, quadratic, and consequential
types The roughest types are the least difficult, the most average, and the most routine Nonlinear
inverse reasoning is the best design when dealing with much more complex dossier sentences,
where the weak and link variables are somewhat aggressive. In addition to fascinating investigations
in the economic sector, multivariate reversal also makes sense for deviations from additional fields.
The estimate is used to jointly determine who and the two of the inflated salaries. • One of the most
well-known conditions is that it is wise to strike a reasonable balance between supply and demand •
You are positively informed about the differences from standard certifications • Consider the impact
of each of these variables on each of these items. It can be seen that the delay line of regression Y
on X is probably equal to Y = 0.418 + 0.9502 X respectively. where Y is the dependent variable and X
is the free variable. These judgments arose from the files handed to us This mean can be
characterized by the expression "regression from y to x". Links to smooth recipes called inverse
equations can occur.
Part 2:
The determined slope of the reversal line, probably at b1 = 0.9502, indicates that qualification is an
equation between two variables (Because the coordinate pivot principle ranges from individual to
5). When consumers can buy with confidence, they are more likely to find useful answers about
product attributes. Why is it so much harder to remember if an association takes action, ignoring
expectations, but much harder to remember if it takes action? . When we offer hard-earned cash for
amounts or assistance, we guarantee that our money is legitimate. We were like, 'Unbelievable,
forbid it? I hope people are surprised that they still have the same love in today's world, but it is
certainly forbidden to pay much attention to bureaucracy because it is so mundane. I'm here. We
hope you will be surprised by what we assume With each new unit of the mathematical system, i.e.
every time it is implemented, the standard becomes harder to resolve.
Conclusion
If the really well worth of b1 withinside the reversion of y on x is definite (this is to
say, if it's miles 0.9502 or larger), this presentations that professional is a statistically
essential linked to the net friendship betwixt collectively variables. Assuming the
dimensions is going from character to five, a equivalence provide permission indicate
'tween taller benefit ratings from shoppers and larger satisfaction ratings. As a effect
regarding this, the statistics presentations that ShivaniRaje is complex in buying, that
has skilled to an growth in income. be vital the proof that that is the case, you'll use it
in order that outline a few sample which you discover withinside the dossier. A
updated outlook to a point the only perhaps specially what the Khakhra arranging
wishes to visualise assets without a doubt and take the following step in the direction
of figuring out their goals orderly for paperwork predicted favorable.
Question No 3.A
Introduction
Relative frequency, a measure of how often a value appears in a dataset, relative to
the total number of values in that dataset.
Meanwhile, absolute frequency is simply a measure of how often a value occurs
The relative frequency of an event is the number of times the event occurs during a
set period of time, divided by the total number of events that could occur during that
time period.
The relative frequency is an experimental quantity, not a theoretical one.We have to
repeat an experiment a number of times and count how many times the outcome of
the trial is in the event set.The results of an experiment can vary each time it is
repeated, due to the fact that it is experimental.
Concept
By using excel
Relative frequency = F1/total frequency ex.
Relative frequency = F1/total frequency
= 2915/6651 = 0.438279958
The relative regularity of an event category is the frequency with which that category occurs
when compared to the total number of observations. In order to make sense of this
frequency, you should be comfortable with fractions, percentages, and proportions.
The entire number of reports is divided by the total number of events in a specific category
to yield a percentage that is representative of the overall count when performing tasks
based on relative frequency. Its operation is characterised by its adherence to a specific
methodology.
Empirical chances concede possibility likewise perform using relative repetitions. chances
supply an estimate of nevertheless apparently individual aspect search out occur. the idea is
expansive employed in predictions of potential consequences. However, if you hire path of
by means of what usually entity happens, you're giving an practical odds. they're
premeditated by analysts utilizing legitimate-experience information a suggestion of
correction hypothetical foundations.
West Tripura has the most MSMEs, as seen in the chart.
Conclusion
It is critical to apprehend the distinction among the theoretical opportunity of an
occasion and the located relative frequency of the occasion in experimental trials.
The theoretical opportunity is various that we are able to compute if we've got
sufficient records approximately the experiment. If every viable final results
withinside the pattern area is similarly likely, we are able to rely the variety of effects
withinside the occasion set and the variety of effects withinside the pattern area to
compute the theoretical opportunity.
The relative frequency relies upon at the series of effects that we examine at the
same time as doing a statistical experiment. The relative frequency may be
extraordinary each time we redo the experiment. The greater trials we run at some
stage in an experiment, the nearer the located relative frequency of an occasion gets
to the theoretical opportunity of the occasion.
Question 3.B
Introduction
A bar graph is a shape of records visualization. It permits you to create a graphical
illustration of records the use of bars or strips. It permits you to without difficulty
examine awesome categories. Also, you could with ease evaluation distinctive styles
of records and frequencies.
A bar graph may be horizontal or vertical. Each bar represents a precis price for one
discrete level. The longer strips suggest better values.
Concept
Part 1)
Following are the chart which is classifying the respective data :
Number of Micro, Small and
Medium Enterprises
West Tripura 2915
North Tripura 854
West Tripura and North Tripura has the highest relative frequency, i.e., 0.43 and 0.12.
Two districts of data
2915
854
W est Tr i p u r a No r t h Tr i p u r a
Part 2)
State District Name Number
Name of Micro,
Small
and
Medium
Enterpris
es
ANDHR SRIKAKULAM 10895
A
PRADE
SH
ANDHR VIZIANAGARA 30186
A M
PRADE
SH
ANDHR VISAKHAPATN 29070
A AM
PRADE
SH
ANDHR EAST 26546
A GODAVARI
PRADE
SH
ANDHR WEST 33541
A GODAVARI
PRADE
SH
ANDHR KRISHNA 23231
A
PRADE
SH
ANDHR GUNTUR 25479
A
PRADE
SH
ANDHR PRAKASAM 45171
A
PRADE
SH
ANDHR SPSR NELLORE 54059
A
PRADE
SH
ANDHR Y.S.R 37500
A
PRADE
SH
ANDHR KURNOOL 15362
A
PRADE
SH
ANDHR ANANTHAPUR 21193
A
PRADE
SH
ANDHR CHITOOR 27670
A
PRADE
SH
The median is a key figure in statistics that is used to analyze data sets. It is the value
that lies at the midpoint of a data set, with an equal number of values above and
below it. The median is a useful tool for understanding data sets, as it can give you a
quick overview of the distribution of values.The median is the value in the middle of
a set of numbers. To find the median, first you need to order the set from smallest to
largest. If there is an odd number of values in the set, the median is the middle value.
If there is an even number of values in the set, the median is the mean of the two
middle values.
To calculate the median, you first need to order the set of numbers from smallest to
largest. If there is an odd number of values in the set, the median is the middle value.
If there is an even number of values in the set, the median is the mean of the two
middle values.The median is the middle value in a group of numbers. To find the
median, first you need to order the numbers from least to greatest. Then, if there is
an odd number of values, the median is the middle value. If there is an even number
of values, the median is the mean of the two middle values.
Conclusion
There are total no of district = 13
Median= ( N 2+1 )
13+1 14
So median = = = 7thitem
2 2
So, MEDIAN VALUE = 27670
The list of the district is CHITTOOR in Andhra Pradesh
You can use the median to compare data and averages. The median is less affected
by outliers (extreme values) than the mean, so it can give you a better idea of what a
typical value is.
