The Road Ahead: Future Conflicts or Sustainable Stability?

Good afternoon everyone,

We have walked through the past and present of the Sino-Indian equation
—historical roots, flashpoints like Doklam and Galwan, China’s military
expansion, and India’s countermeasures. Now, we stand at a critical
juncture: what does the future hold? Will the border remain a powder
keg, or can sustainable stability be achieved?

The Risks: Can Border Peace Hold?

The Himalayan border remains tense, even as rounds of diplomatic and

military talks attempt de-escalation. The 2021 disengagement at Pangong
Tso was a step forward, but standoffs persist in Depsang and Demchok.
Despite agreements, China continues to construct dual-use villages near
the LAC and reinforce military infrastructure. According to reports,
China has built over 600 new border defence structures and increased its
troops in eastern Ladakh. The recent satellite imagery confirms the rapid
militarization of key friction points, signalling that the possibility of
sudden escalations remains high.

India, too, has been proactive in countering these threats. The

government has accelerated infrastructure development along the LAC,
constructing all-weather roads, bridges, and advanced landing grounds.
The deployment of the S-400 missile defence system, enhanced
surveillance using high-altitude drones, and the induction of the Light
Combat Helicopter (LCH) into the Indian Air Force have strengthened
India’s border defences. Moreover, regular joint military exercises with
allies send a strong deterrent message to Beijing.

History teaches us that border disputes, if not resolved, can be

manipulated for political and strategic purposes. Beijing’s "salami
slicing" tactics—incremental territorial encroachments—raise concerns.
In 2020, the Galwan Valley clash, which resulted in the deaths of 20
Indian soldiers and an undisclosed number of Chinese troops,
underscored the high stakes of border tensions. Future miscalculations
could lead to a broader military confrontation, disrupting fragile peace
efforts.

China’s Global Ambitions vs. India’s Strategic Autonomy

China’s ambitions are crystal clear: economic dominance, military

expansion, and rewriting global rules. With the Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) entrenching its influence across Asia and Africa, and military bases
appearing from Djibouti to Cambodia, Beijing is consolidating power.
China’s defence spending surpassed $230 billion in 2023, nearly four
times that of India’s $72.6 billion defence budget, showcasing its
aggressive military expansion. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy
has the largest fleet in the world, with over 355 ships, and China
continues to develop aircraft carriers and hypersonic missile capabilities
to project power far beyond its borders.

However, China’s global ambitions come with challenges. Its aggressive

posturing in the South China Sea has led to diplomatic pushback from
ASEAN nations, and trade tensions with the U.S. continue to rise.
Meanwhile, India has positioned itself as a leader in the Global South,
balancing economic growth with diplomatic assertiveness. New Delhi’s
strategy is clear: forge strong alliances while maintaining strategic
autonomy. This approach has been evident in India's neutral stance in the
Russia-Ukraine conflict, its independent energy policy despite Western
sanctions, and its role in supply chain diversification to counter over-
reliance on Chinese manufacturing.

For India, the challenge is walking the tightrope—asserting its strategic

autonomy without being drawn into outright conflict. While China aligns
with Pakistan and deepens ties with Russia, India strengthens its
partnerships with the US, Japan, Australia, and France. The QUAD
alliance is a cornerstone of this strategy, signalling India’s willingness to
counterbalance China’s hegemony. Additionally, India’s investments in
the Indo-Pacific, such as expanding naval exercises like Malabar and
bolstering ties with ASEAN nations, reflect its commitment to a free and
open region.
Policy Recommendations: Balancing Diplomacy, Deterrence &
Economic Strength

1. Diplomatic Leverage: India must persist in border negotiations

while reinforcing international coalitions. Strengthening Indo-
Pacific alliances, leveraging BRICS and SCO memberships, and
engaging in backchannel diplomacy can counter China’s narrative.
India should also enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms with
allies to preempt potential border escalations and misinformation
campaigns.

2. Military Preparedness: While nuclear deterrence remains crucial,

conventional forces must be upgraded. Expanding airpower along
the LAC, enhancing drone surveillance, and boosting cyber warfare
capabilities are necessary steps. Additionally, partnerships in
defence technology—such as India’s procurement of Rafale jets and
joint ventures with Israel and the US—must continue. According to
the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India
remains the world’s largest arms importer, with a 12% share of
global arms imports between 2018-2022, indicating its focus on
military modernization.

3. Economic Resilience: China’s economy is slowing, but it remains

a global manufacturing powerhouse. India, with its “Make in India”
initiative, needs to create self-reliance in key sectors—
semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and AI. Reducing dependency on
Chinese imports while capitalizing on global supply chain
diversification will bolster India’s position. In 2023, India imposed
restrictions on Chinese telecom equipment and increased scrutiny
on Chinese investments in sensitive sectors, showcasing a decisive
economic pushback.

4. Technological Innovation & Cybersecurity: China’s cyber

warfare capabilities pose a direct threat to India’s national security.
India must bolster its cybersecurity infrastructure by investing in
indigenous software, strengthening IT defence mechanisms, and
 establishing a national cyber command similar to the U.S. Cyber
Command. Collaboration with Israel and the U.S. in cyber defence
could enhance India's preparedness against cyber espionage and
attacks on critical infrastructure.

5. Strategic Use of Soft Power: India’s historical and cultural ties

with South Asian nations, Africa, and the Middle East present a
unique diplomatic opportunity. By leveraging initiatives like the
International Solar Alliance and expanding educational and
healthcare cooperation, India can counter China’s influence in
these regions. Additionally, using Bollywood and yoga diplomacy to
enhance cultural engagement could strengthen India’s global
image as a stable and responsible power.

Final Thoughts

As the world pivots toward an era of multipolar competition, the India-

China equation remains a key determinant of Asian stability. Border
peace is precarious, but not impossible. Strategic patience, smart
diplomacy, and robust defence measures will define whether the future is
one of persistent rivalry or sustainable stability.

The choices we make today will shape the next decade. Do we engage
China with a firm but open hand, or do we prepare for a prolonged
strategic duel? India must be agile, pragmatic, and unwavering in its
vision for a stable yet strong future.

Thank you.