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Bloomberg Data

Finolex Industries Ltd reported a revenue of 30,684.58 million INR for March 2019, with a slight decline to 29,576.7 million INR in March 2020, resulting in no year-over-year growth. The company's EBITDA decreased from 6,043.46 million INR to 4,487.4 million INR, while free cash flow significantly dropped from 3,306.20 million INR to 473.96 million INR. The current price of the stock is 182.5 INR, with a consensus price target of 246.06 INR, indicating a potential upside of -2.93% based on discounted cash flow analysis.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
86 views48 pages

Bloomberg Data

Finolex Industries Ltd reported a revenue of 30,684.58 million INR for March 2019, with a slight decline to 29,576.7 million INR in March 2020, resulting in no year-over-year growth. The company's EBITDA decreased from 6,043.46 million INR to 4,487.4 million INR, while free cash flow significantly dropped from 3,306.20 million INR to 473.96 million INR. The current price of the stock is 182.5 INR, with a consensus price target of 246.06 INR, indicating a potential upside of -2.93% based on discounted cash flow analysis.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 48

Ticker FNXP IN Currency

Name Finolex Industries Ltd Data

In Millions of INR Mar 19 A Mar 20 A

Summary Analysis

In Millions of INR Mar 19 A Mar 20 A


Revenue (Estimate Comparable) 30684.58 29576.7
% YoY Growth 0
EBITDA 6043.461 4487.4
% Margin 0.196954 0.151721
Free Cash Flow 3306.196 473.9636
% Margin 0.107748 0.016025

Perpetuity Growth Method


Current Price (INR) 182.5
Consensus Price Target 246.0625
DCF Estimated Value per Share (INR) 177.1577
DCF Estimated Upside -0.029273

Perpetuity Growth
0.052 0.057 0.062
0.117607 182.2299 193.0557 205.8283
Discount 0.122607 170.5384 179.6664 190.3006
Rate 0.127607 160.4093 168.1904 177.1577
(WACC) 0.132607 151.5513 158.2476 165.8923
0.137607 143.7413 149.552 156.1314
0.052 0.057 0.062
0.117607 -0.00148 0.057839 0.127826
0.122607 -0.065543 -0.015526 0.042743
0.127607 -0.121045 -0.078409 -0.029273
0.132607 -0.169582 -0.13289 -0.091001
0.137607 -0.212377 -0.180537 -0.144485

Input Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Exit Enterprise Value / EBITDA

In Millions of INR Mar 19 A Mar 20 A


-5FY -4FY

Revenue (Estimate Comparable) 30684.58 29576.7


Revenue (Adjusted) 30684.58 29576.7
16 % YoY Growth Edit Row

1 BEst Consensus Revenue


1 5 Year Moving Trend
1 BEst Consensus EPS Long Term Growth

2 Input (%)
2 >> Input (INR)

Revenue YoY growth


61 Number of analysts estimating Revenue
63 Number of analysts estimating EPS LTG Rate

(-) Cost of Revenue


(-) Cost of Revenue (GAAP)
3 % of Revenue 0
(=) Gross Profit
13 % Margin Edit Row 0

1 BEst Consensus Gross Margin


1 Last Year's Gross Margin

2 << Input (%)

Gross Margin YoY Change


82 Number of analysts estimating Gross Margin
(-) Operating Expenses/Income 25827.4
15 % of Revenue Edit Row 0.873235

1 BEst Consensus Implied Operating Expense as a %


1 Last Year's Operating Expense as a % of Revenue

2 >> Input (%)

Operating Expenses/Income as a % of Revenue cha


97 Number of analysts estimating Revenue
97 Number of analysts estimating Gross Margin
97 Number of analysts estimating Operating Profit

3 % YoY Growth
(=) Operating Income 5342.661 3749.3
3 % Margin 0.174116 0.126765
(-) Tax on Operating Income 1790.835 830.9364
12 % Tax Rate Edit Row 0.330808 0.20288

1 5 Year Rolling Average Effective Tax Rate


1 Last Year's Effective Tax Rate

2 >> Input (%)

Estimated Tax on Operating Income

(=) NOPAT 3551.826 2918.364


3 % Margin 0.115753 0.098671
(+) Depreciation & Amortization 700.8 738.1
15 % of Revenue Edit Row 0.022839 0.024955

1 BEst Consensus Implied Depreciation & Amortizati


1 Last Year's Depreciation & Amortization as a % of R
2 >> Input (%)

Depr & Amort as a % of Revenue change


133 Number of analysts estimating Revenue
133 Number of analysts estimating Operating Profit
133 Number of analysts estimating EBITDA

3 % YoY Growth 0.053225


(-) Capital Expenditure 1019.8 612.9
15 % of Revenue Edit Row 0.033235 0.020722

1 BEst Consensus Capital Expenditure


1 5 Year Rolling Average
1 Last Year's Capital Expenditure

2 >> Input (INR)

Capex as a % of Revenue YoY change


151 The ratio Capex / Depr & Amort
151 Number of analysts estimating Capex

3 % YoY Growth -0.399


(-) Changes in Net Working Capital 329.029 2208.8
11 % of Revenue Edit Row 0.010723 0.07468

1 5 Year Rolling Average

2 << Input (%)

Change in NWC as a % of Revenue YoY change

(+) Changes in Net Long Term Deferred Tax L 402.399 -360.8


11 % of Revenue Edit Row 0.013114 -0.012199
1 5 Year Rolling Average

2 >> Input (%)

Change in Net LT Def Tax Liab as a % of Revenue Yo

(+) Other User Estimated Non-Cash Adjustments


5 % of Revenue Edit Row

Input (INR)

(=) Free Cash Flow 3306.196 473.9636


6 % Margin Edit Row 0.107748 0.016025

Free Cash Flow Margin YoY Change

3 % YoY Growth -0.856644

% of the Free Cash Flow to be discounted


Period for Discount Factor (Mid-Year Convention)
Discount Factor @ 12.8% WACC
Present Value of Free Cash Flow (5 Years)
EBITDA 6043.461 4487.4
7 % Margin Edit Row 0.196954 0.151721

EBITDA Margin YoY Change

3 % YoY Growth -0.257478

Output Analysis

Perpetuity Growth Method - Value per Share


Free Cash Flow at Year 5
WACC
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Perpetuity Value at End of Year 5

Present Value of Perpetuity (@ 12.8% WACC)


(+) Present Value of Free Cash Flows (@ 12.8% WACC
(=) Current Enterprise Value 94493.74

Short Term Debt


(+) Long Term Debt
(-) Cash and Marketable Securities
(-) Current Net Debt
(-) Current Preferred and Minority Interest
(=) Equity Value

Shares outstanding
Estimated Value per Share (INR) 177.1577
Current Price (INR)
Estimated Upside -0.029273

Perpetuity Growth Method - Sensitivity Analysis

Enterprise Value in Millions o


Incremental change Perpetuity Growth
0.005
0.052 0.057 0.062
0.117607 97640.96 104358.1 112283.2
Discount 0.122607 90386.63 96050.38 102648.6
Rate 0.127607 84101.74 88929.78 94493.74
(WACC) 0.132607 78605.56 82760.46 87503.82
0.137607 73759.63 77365.09 81447.43

Value in INR
0.052 0.057 0.062
0.117607 182.2299 193.0557 205.8283
0.122607 170.5384 179.6664 190.3006
0.127607 160.4093 168.1904 177.1577
0.132607 151.5513 158.2476 165.8923
0.137607 143.7413 149.552 156.1314

Upside Potential
0.052 0.057 0.062
0.117607 -0.00148 0.057839 0.127826
0.122607 -0.065543 -0.015526 0.042743
0.127607 -0.121045 -0.078409 -0.029273
0.132607 -0.169582 -0.13289 -0.091001
0.137607 -0.212377 -0.180537 -0.144485

Implied Exit EV / EBITDA Mul


0.052 0.057 0.062
0.117607 10.70826 11.64678 12.75407
0.122607 9.949962 10.75916 11.70187
0.127607 9.291955 9.997252 10.81005
0.132607 8.715579 9.336118 10.04454
0.137607 8.206532 8.757003 9.380281
Trading

Adjusted (If available) Summary Analysis Input Calculation Output Analysis

Mar 21 A Mar 22 A Mar 23 A Mar 24 A Mar 25 E Mar 26 E Mar 27 E Mar 28 E Mar 29 E Mar 30 E

Mar 21 A Mar 22 A Mar 23 A Mar 24 A Mar 25 E Mar 26 E Mar 27 E Mar 28 E Mar 29 E Mar 30 E
34370 46108.7 43612.6 42741 43533.08 48756.85 54313 66905 75652 87644
0.162063 0.341539 -0.054135 -0.019985 0.018532 0.119995 0.113956 0.231841 0.130738 0.158515
9899.2 10246.1 2925.2 5843.3 4844.631 6351.626 7438.715 9612.779 10869.53 12592.52
0.288019 0.222216 0.067072 0.136714 0.111286 0.130271 0.13696 0.143678 0.143678 0.143678
8984.236 6232.79 846.5346 3473.525 2049.033 3608.698 3914.969 6187.98 7110.957 8419.799
0.261398 0.135176 0.01941 0.081269 0.047068 0.074014 0.072082 0.092489 0.093996 0.096068

EBITDA Multiple Method


Current Price (INR) 182.5
Consensus Price Target 246.0625
DCF Estimated Value per Share (INR) 316.2449
DCF Estimated Upside 0.732849

Perpetuity Growth Terminal EBITDA Multiple


0.067 0.072 20.41711 21.91711 23.41711 24.91711 26.41711
221.1247 239.7752 0.117607 294.2212 311.5237 328.8262 346.1287 363.4311
202.8472 217.8729 Discount 0.122607 288.6118 305.5323 322.4529 339.3735 356.294
187.6045 199.93 Rate 0.127607 283.1474 299.6961 316.2449 332.7936 349.3424
174.7022 184.9657 (WACC) 0.132607 277.8238 294.0104 310.1971 326.3838 342.5704
163.6426 172.2986 0.137607 272.6366 288.4707 304.3047 320.1388 335.9729
0.067 0.072 20.41711 21.91711 23.41711 24.91711 26.41711
0.211642 0.313837 0.117607 0.612171 0.706979 0.801787 0.896595 0.991403
0.111491 0.193824 0.122607 0.581434 0.67415 0.766865 0.859581 0.952296
0.02797 0.095507 0.127607 0.551493 0.642171 0.732849 0.823527 0.914205
-0.042728 0.013511 0.132607 0.522322 0.611016 0.69971 0.788404 0.877098
-0.103328 -0.055898 0.137607 0.493899 0.580661 0.667423 0.754185 0.840947

Input Peers Px Implied Tgt ImpliedDefault Current Choice Auto Input Selection
On
0.098789 0.127607 0.127607
0.064656 0.085119 0.062 0.062 (Perpetuity Growth Method only)
30.1593 11.29429 17.05568 23.41711 23.41711 (EBITDA Multiple Method only)

Mar 21 A Mar 22 A Mar 23 A Mar 24 A Mar 25 E Mar 26 E Mar 27 E Mar 28 E Mar 29 E Mar 30 E
-3FY -2FY -1FY -0FY 1FY 2FY 3FY 4FY 5FY 6FY
1 2 3 4 5
34370 46108.7 43612.6 42741 43533.08 48756.85 54313 66905 75652 87644
34370 46108.7 43612.6 42741
0.162063 0.341539 -0.054135 -0.019985 0.018532 0.119995 0.113956 0.231841 0.130738 0.158515

Row # of c 1 1 1 1 1 1
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
0.018532 0.119995 0.113956 0.231841 0.130738 0.158515
0.111993 0.088949 0.034636 0.011216 0.054859 0.106853
Long Term Growth

0 0 0 0 0%
0 0 0 0 0 0

Highlight eLess than Greater than


0 0.15 0.018532 0.119995 0.113956 0.231841 0.130738 0.158515
estimating Revenue 3 13 13 13 1 1 1
estimating EPS LTG Rate 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

27807.33 30680.57 34149.35 42066.59 47566.27 55106.25

0 0 0 0 0.638763 0.629257 0.628751 0.628751 0.628751 0.628751


15725.75 18076.28 20163.65 24838.41 28085.73 32537.75
0 0 0 0 0.361237 0.370743 0.371249 0.371249 0.371249 0.371249

1 1 1 2 2 2
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
0.361237 0.370743 0.371249
0 0.361237 0.370743 0.371249 0.371249 0.371249

0 0 0 0 0 0.17

Highlight eLess than Greater than


-0.05 0.05 0.361237 0.009507 0.000506 0 0 0
estimating Gross Margin 3 10 10 10 0 0 0
25248 36696.6 41579.4 38057.9 11659.43 12755.45 13755.53 16944.64 19159.94 22197.08
0.734594 0.795871 0.95338 0.890431 0.267829 0.261613 0.253264 0.253264 0.253264 0.253264

1 1 1 2 2 2
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
ied Operating Expense as a % of Revenue 0.267829 0.261613 0.253264
g Expense as a % of Revenue 0.890431 0.267829 0.261613 0.253264 0.253264 0.253264

0 0 0 0 0 0

Highlight eLess than Greater than


Income as a % of Revenue chang -0.05 0.05 -0.622602 -0.006216 -0.008349 0 0 0
estimating Revenue 3 13 13 13 1 1 1
estimating Gross Margin 3 10 10 10 0 0 0
estimating Operating Profit 3 13 12 12 1 0 0

-0.022434 0.453446 0.133059 -0.084693 -0.69364 0.094003 0.078405 0.231841 0.130738 0.158515
9122 9412.1 2033.2 4683.1 4066.324 5320.831 6408.113 7893.779 8925.793 10340.67
0.265406 0.204129 0.04662 0.109569 0.093408 0.10913 0.117985 0.117985 0.117985 0.117985
2526.064 2352.61 622.0654 1469.975 965.4444 1300.056 1550.331 1920.195 2219.872 2514.121
0.256336 0.235325 0.21601 0.276571 0.237424 0.244333 0.241933 0.243254 0.248703 0.243129

1 1 1 1 1 1
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
ge Effective Tax Rate 0.237424 0.244333 0.241933 0.243254 0.248703 0.243129
0.276571 0.237424 0.244333 0.241933 0.243254 0.248703

Input Input Input Input Input Input

Highlight eLess than Greater than


erating Income 0 0.5 0.237424 0.244333 0.241933 0.243254 0.248703 0.243129

6595.936 7059.49 1411.135 3213.125 3100.88 4020.776 4857.782 5973.584 6705.92 7826.546
0.19191 0.153105 0.032356 0.075177 0.07123 0.082466 0.08944 0.089285 0.088642 0.089299
777.2 834 892 1160.2 778.307 1030.795 1030.602 1719 1943.738 2251.85
0.022613 0.018088 0.020453 0.027145 0.017879 0.021142 0.018975 0.025693 0.025693 0.025693

1 1 1 1 2 2
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
ied Depreciation & Amortization as a % of Revenue 0.017879 0.021142 0.018975 0.025693
tion & Amortization as a % of Revenue 0.027145 0.017879 0.021142 0.018975 0.025693 0.025693
0 0 0 0 0 0

Highlight eLess than Greater than


of Revenue change -0.05 0.05 -0.009266 0.003263 -0.002166 0.006718 0 0
estimating Revenue 3 13 13 13 1 1 1
estimating Operating Profit 3 13 12 12 1 0 0
estimating EBITDA 3 13 13 13 1 1 1

0.052974 0.073083 0.069544 0.300673 -0.329161 0.324407 -0.000187 0.667957 0.130738 0.158515
649.1 844.1 1687.4 863.5 1530.769 1887.692 1853.692 1564.611 1540.053 1675.363
0.018886 0.018307 0.038691 0.020203 0.035163 0.038716 0.03413 0.023386 0.020357 0.019116

1 1 1 2 2 2
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
tal Expenditure 1530.769 1887.692 1853.692
931.4 1114.974 1362.692 1564.611 1540.053 1675.363
863.5 1530.769 1887.692 1853.692 1564.611 1540.053

Input Input Input Input Input Input

Highlight eLess than Greater than


enue YoY change -0.05 0.05 0.01496 0.003553 -0.004587 -0.010744 -0.003028 -0.001242
0.8 1.25 1.966793 1.831297 1.79865 0.910187 0.792315 0.743994
estimating Capex 3 13 13 13 0 0 0

0.059063 0.300416 0.999052 -0.488266 0.772749 0.233166 -0.018011 -0.155949 -0.015696 0.087861
-1799.1 782.3 -343.5 908.3 458.6372 -111.8304 419.1145 392.5113 651.7623 533.5829
-0.052345 0.016966 -0.007876 0.021251 0.010535 -0.002294 0.007717 0.005867 0.008615 0.006088

1 1 1 1 1 1
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
0.010535 -0.002294 0.007717 0.005867 0.008615 0.006088

Input Input Input Input Input Input

Highlight eLess than Greater than


% of Revenue YoY change -0.05 0.05 -0.010716 -0.012829 0.01001 -0.00185 0.002749 -0.002527

461.1 -34.3 -112.7 872 159.252 332.9888 299.3918 452.518 653.1136 550.3487
0.013416 -0.000744 -0.002584 0.020402 0.003658 0.00683 0.005512 0.006764 0.008633 0.006279

1 1 1 1 1 1
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
0.003658 0.00683 0.005512 0.006764 0.008633 0.006279

0 0 0 0 0 0

Highlight eLess than Greater than


f Tax Liab as a % of Revenue YoY -0.05 0.05 -0.016744 0.003171 -0.001317 0.001251 0.00187 -0.002354

0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

8984.236 6232.79 846.5346 3473.525 2049.033 3608.698 3914.969 6187.98 7110.957 8419.799
0.261398 0.135176 0.01941 0.081269 0.047068 0.074014 0.072082 0.092489 0.093996 0.096068

Highlight eLess than Greater than


gin YoY Change -0.05 0.05 -0.034201 0.026946 -0.001933 0.020407 0.001507 0.002073

17.95554 -0.306253 -0.86418 3.103229 -0.4101 0.761171 0.08487 0.580595 0.149156 0.18406

0.065753 1 1 1 1 0.934247
0.032877 0.565753 1.565753 2.565753 3.565753 4.532877
0.996059 0.934311 0.828579 0.734812 0.651656 0.580197
134.2 3371.647 3243.861 4547.002 4633.899 4563.929
9899.2 10246.1 2925.2 5843.3 4844.631 6351.626 7438.715 9612.779 10869.53 12592.52
0.288019 0.222216 0.067072 0.136714 0.111286 0.130271 0.13696 0.143678 0.143678 0.143678

Highlight eLess than Greater than


-0.05 0.05 -0.025428 0.018985 0.006689 0.006718 0 0

1.205999 0.035043 -0.714506 0.997573 -0.170908 0.311065 0.171151 0.292263 0.130738 0.158515

EBITDA Multiple Method - Value per Share


8333.738 Terminal EBITDA at Year 5 12479.23
0.127607 WACC 0.127607
0.062 Exit Enterprise Value / EBITDA 23.41711
134901.1 Terminal Value at End of Year 5 292227.4

73999.2 Present Value of Terminal Value (@ 12.8% WACC) 160299.6


20494.54 (+) Present Value of Free Cash Flows (@ 12.8% WACC 20494.54
(=) Current Enterprise Value 180794.1

3844.1 Short Term Debt 3844.1


95.4 (+) Long Term Debt 95.4
19368 (-) Cash and Marketable Securities 19368
-15428.5 (-) Current Net Debt -15428.5
0 (-) Current Preferred and Minority Interest 0
109922.2 (=) Equity Value 196222.6

620.4769 Shares outstanding 620.4769


Estimated Value per Share (INR) 316.2449
182.5 Current Price (INR) 182.5
Estimated Upside 0.732849

EBITDA Multiple Method - Sensitivity Analysis

Enterprise Value in Millions of INR Enterprise Value in Millions of INR


Perpetuity Growth Incremental change Terminal EBITDA Multiple
1.5 0.005
0.067 0.072 20.41711 21.91711 23.41711 24.91711
121774.3 133346.5 0.117607 167129 177864.8 188600.6 199336.3
110433.5 119756.6 Discount 0.122607 163648.4 174147.3 184646.1 195144.9
100975.7 108623.4 Rate 0.127607 160257.9 170526 180794.1 191062.3
92970.17 99338.46 (WACC) 0.132607 156954.7 166998.2 177041.6 187085.1
86107.94 91478.82 0.137607 153736.2 163560.9 173385.6 183210.2

Value in INR Value in INR


0.067 0.072 20.41711 21.91711 23.41711 24.91711
221.1247 239.7752 0.117607 294.2212 311.5237 328.8262 346.1287
202.8472 217.8729 0.122607 288.6118 305.5323 322.4529 339.3735
187.6045 199.93 0.127607 283.1474 299.6961 316.2449 332.7936
174.7022 184.9657 0.132607 277.8238 294.0104 310.1971 326.3838
163.6426 172.2986 0.137607 272.6366 288.4707 304.3047 320.1388

Upside Potential Upside Potential


0.067 0.072 20.41711 21.91711 23.41711 24.91711
0.211642 0.313837 0.117607 0.612171 0.706979 0.801787 0.896595
0.111491 0.193824 0.122607 0.581434 0.67415 0.766865 0.859581
0.02797 0.095507 0.127607 0.551493 0.642171 0.732849 0.823527
-0.042728 0.013511 0.132607 0.522322 0.611016 0.69971 0.788404
-0.103328 -0.055898 0.137607 0.493899 0.580661 0.667423 0.754185

Implied Exit EV / EBITDA Multiple Implied Perpetuity Growth


0.067 0.072 20.41711 21.91711 23.41711 24.91711
14.08016 15.69703 0.117607 0.08221 0.084561 0.086619 0.088435
12.81412 14.14614 0.122607 0.087051 0.089413 0.09148 0.093305
11.75697 12.87416 0.127607 0.091893 0.094265 0.096341 0.098174
10.86095 11.81206 0.132607 0.096734 0.099117 0.101203 0.103044
10.09183 10.91184 0.137607 0.101576 0.103969 0.106064 0.107913
Output Analysis 12:04:02

Year 5

Trend
Year 5
IS_COMP_SALES
SALES_REV_TURN
IS_COGS_TO_FE_AND_PP_AND_G

10 5

ells are highlighted in blue) 43533.08 48756.85 54313 66905 75652

LTG_EPS

8 4

ells are highlighted in blue)

4
8 6

ells are highlighted in blue) IS_OPERATING_EXPN


0.361236 0.370743 0.371248

ADJ

8 3

ells are highlighted in blue)

CF_DEPR_AMORT
8 6

ells are highlighted in blue)


(IS_EBITDA-IS_OPERATING_EXPN)/(SALES_REV_TURN)
6

CF_CAP_EXPEND_PRPTY_ADD
9 5

ells are highlighted in blue) CF_CAP_EXPEND_PRPTY_ADD


1174.833 1898.823 1820.154

NA NA

7 3

ells are highlighted in blue)

NA NA

7 3
ells are highlighted in blue)

8333.738

12479.23
e Value in Millions of INR
EBITDA Multiple

26.41711
210072.1
205643.7
201330.4
197128.5
193034.9

26.41711
363.4311
356.294
349.3424
342.5704
335.9729

26.41711
0.991403
0.952296
0.914205
0.877098
0.840947

erpetuity Growth
26.41711
0.090051
0.094928
0.099804
0.104681
0.109558
87644
_REV_TURN)
NA NA NA NA

NA NA NA NA
Ticker CROMPTON IN Currency

Name Crompton Greaves Consumer Elec Data

In Millions of INR Mar 19 A Mar 20 A

Summary Analysis

In Millions of INR Mar 19 A Mar 20 A


Revenue (Estimate Comparable) 44638.8 45202.6
% YoY Growth 0
EBITDA 5844.1 5652.9
% Margin 0.13092 0.125057
Free Cash Flow 3415.81
% Margin 0.075567

Perpetuity Growth Method


Current Price (INR) 347.85
Consensus Price Target 446.9966
DCF Estimated Value per Share (INR) 231.6265
DCF Estimated Upside -0.33412

Perpetuity Growth
0.021 0.026 0.031
0.097704 239.2887 252.4404 267.5637
Discount 0.102704 224.0819 235.416 248.3308
Rate 0.107704 210.6486 220.4957 231.6265
(WACC) 0.112704 198.6981 207.3147 216.9859
0.117704 187.9996 195.5879 204.0514
0.021 0.026 0.031
0.097704 -0.312092 -0.274284 -0.230807
0.102704 -0.355809 -0.323225 -0.286098
0.107704 -0.394427 -0.366118 -0.33412
0.112704 -0.428782 -0.404011 -0.376208
0.117704 -0.459538 -0.437723 -0.413393

Input Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Exit Enterprise Value / EBITDA

In Millions of INR Mar 19 A Mar 20 A


-5FY -4FY

Revenue (Estimate Comparable) 44638.8 45202.6


Revenue (Adjusted) 44638.8 45202.6
16 % YoY Growth Edit Row

1 BEst Consensus Revenue


1 5 Year Moving Trend
1 BEst Consensus EPS Long Term Growth

2 Input (%)
2 >> Input (INR)

Revenue YoY growth


61 Number of analysts estimating Revenue
63 Number of analysts estimating EPS LTG Rate

(-) Cost of Revenue


(-) Cost of Revenue (GAAP)
3 % of Revenue 0
(=) Gross Profit
13 % Margin Edit Row 0

1 BEst Consensus Gross Margin


1 Last Year's Gross Margin

2 << Input (%)

Gross Margin YoY Change


82 Number of analysts estimating Gross Margin
(-) Operating Expenses/Income 39817.6
15 % of Revenue Edit Row 0.88087

1 BEst Consensus Implied Operating Expense as a %


1 Last Year's Operating Expense as a % of Revenue

2 >> Input (%)

Operating Expenses/Income as a % of Revenue cha


97 Number of analysts estimating Revenue
97 Number of analysts estimating Gross Margin
97 Number of analysts estimating Operating Profit

3 % YoY Growth
(=) Operating Income 5715.2 5385
3 % Margin 0.128032 0.11913
(-) Tax on Operating Income 1536.39 739.69
12 % Tax Rate Edit Row 0.282544 0.141454

1 5 Year Rolling Average Effective Tax Rate


1 Last Year's Effective Tax Rate

2 >> Input (%)

Estimated Tax on Operating Income

(=) NOPAT 4178.81 4645.31


3 % Margin 0.093614 0.102766
(+) Depreciation & Amortization 128.9 267.9
15 % of Revenue Edit Row 0.002888 0.005927

1 BEst Consensus Implied Depreciation & Amortizati


1 Last Year's Depreciation & Amortization as a % of R
2 >> Input (%)

Depr & Amort as a % of Revenue change


133 Number of analysts estimating Revenue
133 Number of analysts estimating Operating Profit
133 Number of analysts estimating EBITDA

3 % YoY Growth 1.078355


(-) Capital Expenditure 159.5 494
15 % of Revenue Edit Row 0.003573 0.010929

1 BEst Consensus Capital Expenditure


1 5 Year Rolling Average
1 Last Year's Capital Expenditure

2 >> Input (INR)

Capex as a % of Revenue YoY change


151 The ratio Capex / Depr & Amort
151 Number of analysts estimating Capex

3 % YoY Growth 2.097179


(-) Changes in Net Working Capital 1569.3 1099.2
11 % of Revenue Edit Row 0.035156 0.024317

1 5 Year Rolling Average

2 << Input (%)

Change in NWC as a % of Revenue YoY change

(+) Changes in Net Long Term Deferred Tax Liabilities 95.8


11 % of Revenue Edit Row 0.002119
1 5 Year Rolling Average

2 >> Input (%)

Change in Net LT Def Tax Liab as a % of Revenue Yo

(+) Other User Estimated Non-Cash Adjustments


5 % of Revenue Edit Row

Input (INR)

(=) Free Cash Flow 3415.81


6 % Margin Edit Row 0.075567

Free Cash Flow Margin YoY Change

3 % YoY Growth

% of the Free Cash Flow to be discounted


Period for Discount Factor (Mid-Year Convention)
Discount Factor @ 10.8% WACC
Present Value of Free Cash Flow (5 Years)
EBITDA 5844.1 5652.9
7 % Margin Edit Row 0.13092 0.125057

EBITDA Margin YoY Change

3 % YoY Growth -0.032717

Output Analysis

Perpetuity Growth Method - Value per Share


Free Cash Flow at Year 5
WACC
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Perpetuity Value at End of Year 5

Present Value of Perpetuity (@ 10.8% WACC)


(+) Present Value of Free Cash Flows (@ 10.8% WACC
(=) Current Enterprise Value 150936

Short Term Debt


(+) Long Term Debt
(-) Cash and Marketable Securities
(-) Current Net Debt
(-) Current Preferred and Minority Interest
(=) Equity Value

Shares outstanding
Estimated Value per Share (INR) 231.6265
Current Price (INR)
Estimated Upside -0.33412

Perpetuity Growth Method - Sensitivity Analysis

Enterprise Value in Millions o


Incremental change Perpetuity Growth
0.005
0.021 0.026 0.031
0.097704 155868.6 164335 174070.6
Discount 0.102704 146079.2 153375.5 161689.4
Rate 0.107704 137431.5 143770.6 150936
(WACC) 0.112704 129738.4 135285.3 141511.2
0.117704 122851.3 127736.2 133184.6

Value in INR
0.021 0.026 0.031
0.097704 239.2887 252.4404 267.5637
0.102704 224.0819 235.416 248.3308
0.107704 210.6486 220.4957 231.6265
0.112704 198.6981 207.3147 216.9859
0.117704 187.9996 195.5879 204.0514

Upside Potential
0.021 0.026 0.031
0.097704 -0.312092 -0.274284 -0.230807
0.102704 -0.355809 -0.323225 -0.286098
0.107704 -0.394427 -0.366118 -0.33412
0.112704 -0.428782 -0.404011 -0.376208
0.117704 -0.459538 -0.437723 -0.413393

Implied Exit EV / EBITDA Mul


0.021 0.026 0.031
0.097704 11.48935 12.35071 13.34119
0.102704 10.78624 11.54562 12.4109
0.107704 10.16423 10.83907 11.60188
0.112704 9.610042 10.214 10.89189
0.117704 9.113163 9.657104 10.26378
Trading

Adjusted (If available) Summary Analysis Input Calculation Output Analysis

Mar 21 A Mar 22 A Mar 23 A Mar 24 A Mar 25 E Mar 26 E Mar 27 E Mar 28 E Mar 29 E Mar 30 E

Mar 21 A Mar 22 A Mar 23 A Mar 24 A Mar 25 E Mar 26 E Mar 27 E Mar 28 E Mar 29 E Mar 30 E
48035.1 53941.1 68696.1 73128.1 80087.97 90345.62 101583.5 111299 121770.5 129763
0.062662 0.122952 0.273539 0.064516 0.095174 0.12808 0.124388 0.09564 0.094084 0.065636
7206.4 7696 7704.7 7142.6 8780.251 10368.02 11989.74 12869.95 14760.32 15729.12
0.150024 0.142674 0.112156 0.097672 0.109633 0.11476 0.118028 0.115634 0.121214 0.121214
6655.7 5211.3 4943.4 6937.39 6660.153 8515.951 9749.964 10714.11 12906.82 13564.93
0.138559 0.096611 0.07196 0.094866 0.08316 0.09426 0.09598 0.096264 0.105993 0.104536

EBITDA Multiple Method


Current Price (INR) 347.85
Consensus Price Target 446.9966
DCF Estimated Value per Share (INR) 417.7956
DCF Estimated Upside 0.20108

Perpetuity Growth Terminal EBITDA Multiple


0.036 0.041 21.36041 22.86041 24.36041 25.86041 27.36041
285.138 305.8116 0.097704 390.006 412.9089 435.8118 458.7147 481.6176
263.1817 280.4393 Discount 0.102704 381.9074 404.2957 426.6841 449.0724 471.4608
244.3097 258.8942 Rate 0.107704 374.0204 395.908 417.7956 439.6832 461.5708
227.918 240.3747 (WACC) 0.112704 366.3385 387.7387 409.139 430.5392 451.9395
213.5507 224.2885 0.117704 358.8555 379.7814 400.7072 421.633 442.5589
0.036 0.041 21.36041 22.86041 24.36041 25.86041 27.36041
-0.180285 -0.120852 0.097704 0.12119 0.187032 0.252873 0.318714 0.384555
-0.243405 -0.193792 0.102704 0.097908 0.16227 0.226632 0.290994 0.355356
-0.297658 -0.25573 0.107704 0.075235 0.138157 0.20108 0.264002 0.326925
-0.344781 -0.30897 0.112704 0.053151 0.114672 0.176194 0.237715 0.299237
-0.386084 -0.355215 0.117704 0.031639 0.091796 0.151954 0.212112 0.272269

Input Peers Px Implied Tgt ImpliedDefault Current Choice Auto Input Selection
On
0.105627 0.107704 0.107704
0.060904 0.072585 0.031 0.031 (Perpetuity Growth Method only)
34.53259 19.56691 26.36161 24.36041 24.36041 (EBITDA Multiple Method only)

Mar 21 A Mar 22 A Mar 23 A Mar 24 A Mar 25 E Mar 26 E Mar 27 E Mar 28 E Mar 29 E Mar 30 E
-3FY -2FY -1FY -0FY 1FY 2FY 3FY 4FY 5FY 6FY
1 2 3 4 5
48035.1 53941.1 68696.1 73128.1 80087.97 90345.62 101583.5 111299 121770.5 129763
48035.1 53941.1 68696.1 73128.1
0.062662 0.122952 0.273539 0.064516 0.095174 0.12808 0.124388 0.09564 0.094084 0.065636

Row # of c 1 1 1 1 1 1
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
0.095174 0.12808 0.124388 0.09564 0.094084 0.065636
0.102241 0.124379 0.120646 0.108 0.094823 0.101524
Long Term Growth

0 0 0 0 0%
0 0 0 0 0 0

Highlight eLess than Greater than


0 0.15 0.095174 0.12808 0.124388 0.09564 0.094084 0.065636
estimating Revenue 3 31 32 31 3 2 1
estimating EPS LTG Rate 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

54235.82 60990.29 68411.85 75734.57 82860.01 88298.59

0 0 0 0 0.677203 0.675077 0.673454 0.68046 0.68046 0.68046


25852.15 29355.34 33171.7 35564.43 38910.49 41464.41
0 0 0 0 0.322797 0.324923 0.326546 0.31954 0.31954 0.31954

1 1 1 1 2 2
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
0.322797 0.324923 0.326546 0.31954
0 0.322797 0.324923 0.326546 0.31954 0.31954

0 0 0 0 0 0.17

Highlight eLess than Greater than


-0.05 0.05 0.322797 0.002126 0.001623 -0.007007 0 0
estimating Gross Margin 3 18 16 16 1 0 0
41125.6 46668 62150.6 67273.7 18507.24 20447.82 22666.07 23778.48 26015.67 27723.23
0.856157 0.865166 0.904718 0.919943 0.231086 0.226329 0.223127 0.213645 0.213645 0.213645

1 1 1 1 2 2
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
ied Operating Expense as a % of Revenue 0.231086 0.226329 0.223127 0.213645
g Expense as a % of Revenue 0.919943 0.231086 0.226329 0.223127 0.213645 0.213645

0 0 0 0 0 0

Highlight eLess than Greater than


Income as a % of Revenue chang -0.05 0.05 -0.688857 -0.004758 -0.003201 -0.009482 0 0
estimating Revenue 3 31 32 31 3 2 1
estimating Gross Margin 3 18 16 16 1 0 0
estimating Operating Profit 3 25 25 25 3 2 1

0.03285 0.134768 0.331761 0.08243 -0.724896 0.104855 0.108483 0.049078 0.094084 0.065636
6909.5 7273.1 6545.5 5854.4 7344.911 8907.518 10505.64 11785.95 12894.82 13741.18
0.143843 0.134834 0.095282 0.080057 0.091711 0.098594 0.103419 0.105894 0.105894 0.105894
939.3 1621.2 1357.5 1314.61 1406.275 1794.547 2249.634 2493.887 2702.318 2825.812
0.138106 0.226824 0.221759 0.22917 0.191463 0.201464 0.214136 0.211598 0.209566 0.205645

1 1 1 1 1 1
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
ge Effective Tax Rate 0.191463 0.201464 0.214136 0.211598 0.209566 0.205645
0.22917 0.191463 0.201464 0.214136 0.211598 0.209566

Input Input Input Input Input Input

Highlight eLess than Greater than


erating Income 0 0.5 0.191463 0.201464 0.214136 0.211598 0.209566 0.205645

5970.2 5651.9 5188 4539.79 5938.635 7112.971 8256.001 9292.058 10192.5 10915.37
0.124288 0.104779 0.075521 0.06208 0.074151 0.078731 0.081273 0.083487 0.083703 0.084118
296.9 422.9 1159.2 1288.2 1435.34 1460.506 1484.108 1084 1865.5 1987.944
0.006181 0.00784 0.016874 0.017616 0.017922 0.016166 0.01461 0.00974 0.01532 0.01532

1 1 1 1 1 2
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
ied Depreciation & Amortization as a % of Revenue 0.017922 0.016166 0.01461 0.00974 0.01532
tion & Amortization as a % of Revenue 0.017616 0.017922 0.016166 0.01461 0.00974 0.01532
0 0 0 0 0 0

Highlight eLess than Greater than


of Revenue change -0.05 0.05 0.000306 -0.001756 -0.001556 -0.00487 0.00558 0
estimating Revenue 3 31 32 31 3 2 1
estimating Operating Profit 3 25 25 25 3 2 1
estimating EBITDA 3 28 28 27 2 1 0

0.108249 0.424385 1.741074 0.111284 0.114221 0.017533 0.01616 -0.269595 0.720941 0.065636
201.8 1711.5 791 837.9 1090.591 968.652 969.783 600 600 500
0.004201 0.031729 0.011514 0.011458 0.013617 0.010722 0.009547 0.005391 0.004927 0.003853

1 1 1 1 1 1
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
tal Expenditure 1090.591 968.652 969.783 600 600 500
807.24 926.5582 1079.929 931.5852 893.3852 845.8052
837.9 1090.591 968.652 969.783 600 600

Input Input Input Input Input Input

Highlight eLess than Greater than


enue YoY change -0.05 0.05 0.002159 -0.002896 -0.001175 -0.004156 -0.000464 -0.001074
0.8 1.25 0.759814 0.66323 0.653445 0.553506 0.32163 0.251516
estimating Capex 3 22 23 23 2 2 1

-0.591498 7.481169 -0.537832 0.059292 0.301577 -0.11181 0.001168 -0.381305 0 -0.166667


-669.2 131.8 341.2 -1970.6 -146.5821 -637.8178 -577.544 -813.7261 -1189.304 -821.4871
-0.013931 0.002443 0.004967 -0.026947 -0.00183 -0.00706 -0.005685 -0.007311 -0.009767 -0.006331

1 1 1 1 1 1
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
-0.00183 -0.00706 -0.005685 -0.007311 -0.009767 -0.006331

Input Input Input Input Input Input

Highlight eLess than Greater than


% of Revenue YoY change -0.05 0.05 0.025117 -0.005229 0.001374 -0.001626 -0.002456 0.003436

-78.8 979.8 -271.6 -23.3 230.1868 273.3082 402.0942 124.3279 259.5178 340.1307
-0.00164 0.018164 -0.003954 -0.000319 0.002874 0.003025 0.003958 0.001117 0.002131 0.002621

1 1 1 1 1 1
Click on a cell below to select assumption (selected cells are highlighted in blue)
0.002874 0.003025 0.003958 0.001117 0.002131 0.002621

0 0 0 0 0 0

Highlight eLess than Greater than


f Tax Liab as a % of Revenue YoY -0.05 0.05 0.003193 0.000151 0.000933 -0.002841 0.001014 0.00049

0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

6655.7 5211.3 4943.4 6937.39 6660.153 8515.951 9749.964 10714.11 12906.82 13564.93
0.138559 0.096611 0.07196 0.094866 0.08316 0.09426 0.09598 0.096264 0.105993 0.104536

Highlight eLess than Greater than


gin YoY Change -0.05 0.05 -0.011706 0.011099 0.00172 0.000284 0.009729 -0.001457

0.948498 -0.217017 -0.051408 0.403364 -0.039963 0.278642 0.144906 0.098887 0.204656 0.050989

0.065753 1 1 1 1 0.934247
0.032877 0.565753 1.565753 2.565753 3.565753 4.532877
0.996643 0.943772 0.852007 0.769165 0.694378 0.628974
436.4576 8037.117 8307.042 8240.923 8962.214 7970.982
7206.4 7696 7704.7 7142.6 8780.251 10368.02 11989.74 12869.95 14760.32 15729.12
0.150024 0.142674 0.112156 0.097672 0.109633 0.11476 0.118028 0.115634 0.121214 0.121214

Highlight eLess than Greater than


-0.05 0.05 0.01196 0.005127 0.003269 -0.002394 0.00558 0

0.274815 0.06794 0.00113 -0.072955 0.229279 0.180835 0.156416 0.073413 0.146883 0.065636

EBITDA Multiple Method - Value per Share


13521.66 Terminal EBITDA at Year 5 15665.42
0.107704 WACC 0.107704
0.031 Exit Enterprise Value / EBITDA 24.36041
181748.4 Terminal Value at End of Year 5 381616.1

108981.3 Present Value of Terminal Value (@ 10.8% WACC) 228827.4


41954.74 (+) Present Value of Free Cash Flows (@ 10.8% WACC 41954.74
(=) Current Enterprise Value 270782.2

3314.3 Short Term Debt 3314.3


3517.6 (+) Long Term Debt 3517.6
9498.7 (-) Cash and Marketable Securities 9498.7
-2666.8 (-) Current Net Debt -2666.8
4493.5 (-) Current Preferred and Minority Interest 4493.5
149109.3 (=) Equity Value 268955.5

643.749 Shares outstanding 643.749


Estimated Value per Share (INR) 417.7956
347.85 Current Price (INR) 347.85
Estimated Upside 0.20108

EBITDA Multiple Method - Sensitivity Analysis

Enterprise Value in Millions of INR Enterprise Value in Millions of INR


Perpetuity Growth Incremental change Terminal EBITDA Multiple
1.5 0.005
0.036 0.041 21.36041 22.86041 24.36041 25.86041
185384 198692.6 0.097704 252892.7 267636.4 282380.1 297123.8
171249.6 182359.2 Discount 0.102704 247679.2 262091.6 276504.1 290916.6
159100.8 168489.6 Rate 0.107704 242601.9 256692 270782.2 284872.3
148548.7 156567.7 (WACC) 0.112704 237656.7 251433.1 265209.5 278985.9
139299.7 146212.2 0.117704 232839.6 246310.6 259781.5 273252.5

Value in INR Value in INR


0.036 0.041 21.36041 22.86041 24.36041 25.86041
285.138 305.8116 0.097704 390.006 412.9089 435.8118 458.7147
263.1817 280.4393 0.102704 381.9074 404.2957 426.6841 449.0724
244.3097 258.8942 0.107704 374.0204 395.908 417.7956 439.6832
227.918 240.3747 0.112704 366.3385 387.7387 409.139 430.5392
213.5507 224.2885 0.117704 358.8555 379.7814 400.7072 421.633

Upside Potential Upside Potential


0.036 0.041 21.36041 22.86041 24.36041 25.86041
-0.180285 -0.120852 0.097704 0.12119 0.187032 0.252873 0.318714
-0.243405 -0.193792 0.102704 0.097908 0.16227 0.226632 0.290994
-0.297658 -0.25573 0.107704 0.075235 0.138157 0.20108 0.264002
-0.344781 -0.30897 0.112704 0.053151 0.114672 0.176194 0.237715
-0.386084 -0.355215 0.117704 0.031639 0.091796 0.151954 0.212112

Implied Exit EV / EBITDA Multiple Implied Perpetuity Growth


0.036 0.041 21.36041 22.86041 24.36041 25.86041
14.4922 15.84619 0.097704 0.05507 0.057765 0.06014 0.062249
13.40589 14.56214 0.102704 0.059875 0.062583 0.064969 0.067087
12.47108 13.47059 0.107704 0.064681 0.067402 0.069798 0.071926
11.65815 12.53127 0.112704 0.069487 0.07222 0.074627 0.076764
10.94471 11.71441 0.117704 0.074293 0.077038 0.079456 0.081603
Output Analysis 12:04:02

Year 5

Trend
Year 5
IS_COMP_SALES
SALES_REV_TURN
IS_COGS_TO_FE_AND_PP_AND_G

10 5

ells are highlighted in blue) 80087.97 90345.63 101583.5 111299 121770.5

LTG_EPS

8 4

ells are highlighted in blue)

4
8 6

ells are highlighted in blue) IS_OPERATING_EXPN

ADJ

8 3

ells are highlighted in blue)

CF_DEPR_AMORT
8 6

ells are highlighted in blue)


(IS_EBITDA-IS_OPERATING_EXPN)/(SALES_REV_TURN)
6

CF_CAP_EXPEND_PRPTY_ADD
9 5

ells are highlighted in blue) CF_CAP_EXPEND_PRPTY_ADD


1085.839 953.1342 954.0947 600 600

NA NA

7 3

ells are highlighted in blue)

NA NA

7 3
ells are highlighted in blue)

13521.66

15665.42
e Value in Millions of INR
EBITDA Multiple

27.36041
311867.6
305329.1
298962.4
292762.3
286723.5

27.36041
481.6176
471.4608
461.5708
451.9395
442.5589

27.36041
0.384555
0.355356
0.326925
0.299237
0.272269

erpetuity Growth
27.36041
0.064133
0.06898
0.073827
0.078674
0.083522
129763
_REV_TURN)
500

NA NA NA NA

NA NA NA NA

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