Chapter-14
Probabilistic Reasoning
Introduction
•How to build network models to reason under
uncertainty according to the laws of probability
theory
•Bayesian Networks
-belief network/probabilistic network/causal
network/knowledge map
-define the syntax & semantics of these
networks & show how they can be used to
capture uncertain knowledge in a natural &
efficient way.
Bayesian networks
•A simple, graphical notation for conditional
independence assertions & hence for compact
specification of full joint distributions
•A Bayesian network is a directed graph in which
each node is annotated with quantitative
probability information.
Syntax:
•a set of nodes, one per variable
•A set of directed links/arrows connects pairs of nodes. If there is
an arrow from node X to node Y, X is said to be a parent of Y
•a directed, acyclic graph (link “directly influences")
•a conditional distribution for each node given its parents:
P(Xi|Parents(Xi))
•In the simplest case, conditional distribution represented as a
conditional probability table (CPT) giving the distribution over Xi
for each combination of parent values
Example
Cavity is a direct cause of Toothache & Catch, whereas no direct
causal relationship exists between Toothache & Catch
Another Example
•You have a new burglar alarm
installed at home. It is fairly reliable at
detecting a burglary, but also responds
on occasion to minor earthquakes.
•You also have 02 neighbors, John &
Mary, who have promised to call you at
work when they hear the alarm.
•John always call hears the alarm, but
sometimes confuses the telephone
ringing with the alarm & calls then,
too.
•Mary, on the other hand, likes rather
loud music & sometimes misses the
alarm altogether.
•Given the evidence who has or has
not called,
-estimate the probability of a burglary
Example contd.
Semantics of Bayesian Networks
•Two ways:
1. See the network as a representation of the joint
probability distribution
-helpful in understanding how to construct
networks
2. View the network as an encoding of a collection
of conditional independence statements
-helpful in designing inference procedures
Compactness
Global semantics
Local semantics
•each node is conditionally independent of its
non-descendants given its parents
A node X is conditionally
independent of its non-
descendants (ZijS) given
its parents (the Uis shown
in the gray area)
Johncalls is independent of Burglary & Earthquake
Markov Blanket
•Each node is conditionally independent of all
others given its
Markov blanket: parents + children + children's
parents
Burglary is independent of
JohnCalls & MaryCalls,
given Alarm & Earthquake
Constructing Bayesian networks
Example
No parents
Example
Example
Example
Example
Example
•Deciding conditional independence is hard in non-causal directions
(Causal models and conditional independence seem hardwired for humans!)
•Assessing conditional probabilities is hard in non-causal directions
-Network is less compact: 1 + 2 + 4 + 2 + 4=13 numbers needed
Other approaches to uncertain
reasoning
Different generations of expert systems
Strict logic reasoning (ignore uncertainty)
Probabilistic techniques using the full Joint
Default reasoning - believed until a better reason
is found to believe something else
Rules with certainty factors
Handling ignorance - Dempster-Shafer theory
Vagueness - something is sort of true (fuzzy logic)
Probability makes the same ontological
commitment as logic: the event is true or
false
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Rule-based methods
Logical reasoning systems have properties
like:
Monotonicity
Locality
Detachment
Truth-functionality
These properties are good for obvious
computational advantages; bad as they’re
inappropriate for uncertain reasoning.
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Summary
•Bayesian Networks
•Compactness
•Constructing of Bayesian Networks
