The document discusses India's energy landscape, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable transport solutions due to rising greenhouse gas emissions and air quality issues. It highlights key statistics about the transportation sector's contribution to emissions and outlines notable policies and recommendations for decarbonization. The document advocates for a data-driven approach to policy-making and the adoption of electric vehicles to mitigate environmental impacts.
The document discusses India's energy landscape, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable transport solutions due to rising greenhouse gas emissions and air quality issues. It highlights key statistics about the transportation sector's contribution to emissions and outlines notable policies and recommendations for decarbonization. The document advocates for a data-driven approach to policy-making and the adoption of electric vehicles to mitigate environmental impacts.
The document discusses India's energy landscape, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable transport solutions due to rising greenhouse gas emissions and air quality issues. It highlights key statistics about the transportation sector's contribution to emissions and outlines notable policies and recommendations for decarbonization. The document advocates for a data-driven approach to policy-making and the adoption of electric vehicles to mitigate environmental impacts.
The document discusses India's energy landscape, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable transport solutions due to rising greenhouse gas emissions and air quality issues. It highlights key statistics about the transportation sector's contribution to emissions and outlines notable policies and recommendations for decarbonization. The document advocates for a data-driven approach to policy-making and the adoption of electric vehicles to mitigate environmental impacts.
World Oil and Gas reserves are estimated at just 45 years and 65 years, respectively. Coal is likely to last a little over 200 years. Where India Stands? Primary Energy Demand Renewable Energy Mix The X-M Problem Energy Security Targets Major Policies Gaps Major Policies Assuming no changes in the policy scenario, PM2.5 emissions are projected to grow by 2.6 times by 2050. This would exacerbate the severe air-quality problems and create challenges in meeting long- term climate-mitigation goals. The transport landscape in India • India is one of the largest car and two-wheeler manufacturers in the world. • India also has fourth-largest Railway network and a fastest growing aviation market. • The predicted growth of motor vehicle fleet is expected to almost double to over 200 million by 2030 in India • The transport sector of India is the third most greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sector and accounted for 14 per cent of our energy-related CO2 emissions. • These emissions have more than tripled since 1990, and with India’s urban population expected to double by 2050, they are likely to increase further. Key Highlights • In 2018, the transportation sector in India consumed about 70 per cent of diesel and 99.6 per cent of petrol in the country. • The demand for petroleum products increased by over 4 per cent per year from 2010 to 2015. • India's transportation sector contributes about 10 per cent of total national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and road transportation contributes about 87 per cent of the total emissions in the sector. • Energy consumption by passenger vehicles increases by 3.7 to 5.5 per cent per year; energy consumption for freight transport increases by 4.6 to 7.2 per cent per year. • Emissions from cars represent an increasing share of transportation-related PM2.5 emissions in all the models, representing about one-third of additional PM2.5 emissions in 2050. • CO2 emissions from the transportation sector will continue to grow by 4.1 to 6.1 per cent per year, leading to an increase by seven times in 2050 relative to 2010. • A fast increase in energy demand from road transport will further exacerbate India's dependency on imported oil. • India needs to take additional steps to decarbonise the transportation sector. • Under the reference scenario, PM2.5 emissions are projected to grow by 2.6 times by 2050. This would exacerbate the severe air- quality problems and create challenges in meeting long-term climate-mitigation goals. Public Transport in India 70
60 China has 6 buses per 1000 people 50
40 India Has less than 1.5 Bus per 1,000
people. 30
20
10
0 South Korea Russia China Turkey Brazil Japan Germany Mexico India
No. of Buses per 1000 people
Notable policies in India • The FAME II scheme (subsidy to counter the cost differential between EVs and ICE vehicles) • Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for Advanced Cell Chemistry (ACC) battery storage will further accelerate EV adoption. • The Railways has pledged to become a net-zero emitter by 2030. • Dedicated freight corridors will cut emissions by almost 450 million tonnes in the first 30 years. • Metro rails are rapidly expanding across the country as is the concept of high- speed regional mobility (the Delhi-Meerut Regional Rapid Transit System and the Kerala Semi-High-Speed Rail) • Ropeways, for Overhead Mass Rapid Transit (OMRTS) are being explored in Northern and North-eastern states of India. India’s commitment • India has achieved 21 per cent of its Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, in reducing emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35 per cent by 2030. • Going forward, a scenario-based modelling approach for formulating transport policies would be ideal. • Through such modelling, we can assess how GHG emissions reductions could be achieved through a feasible set of scenarios rather than apply a one-size-fits-all policy decision. • The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach, allows us to assess the components of the transport ecosystem throughout their useful life, from cradle to grave, and assess the impact on the environment at every stage. • Often well-intended policy decisions, aimed at controlling emissions may actually result in a situation where emissions in another stage of the product life cycle increase, a concept known as burden shifting. • However, LCA avoids this issue by virtue of being applicable across the product lifecycle. Baseline estimate of CO2 emissions from road transport The Framework Scenarios for the fleet of 2020 Description of the scenario 1 No-policy scenario Assuming the absence of all the significant policies such as introduction and shift to CNG fuels, Shift to 4-stroke technology in two-wheelers and threewheelers on the road, improvement in fuel efficiency of vehicles, and introduction of emission norms 2 Shift to CNG scenario Analyzing the impact of CNG introduction in buses (from 0 % to 10 %), taxis (from 0 % to 20%) and three-wheelers (from 0 % to 20 %) for the fleet of 2020
3 Shift to 4- stroke technology scenario Analyzing the impact of the shift in technology from two-stroke (2s) vehicles to four-strokes (4s) vehicles. We assumed shift in 2s:4s from 30:70 in 2000 to 4:96 in 2020 for two-wheelers and for three-wheelers we assumed increase in 4s vehicles from 0–25% from 2000 to 2020 4 Improvement in Fuel Efficiency scenario Fuel efficiency of vehicles have improved for vehicles as follows- by 28% for HDV and Buses, 10% for LDV, 38% for Taxis, 80% for 3W, and 32% for Private vehicles such as 2W and cars from 2000 to 2020 5 Shift in Emission norms (BS norms) Emission norms such as Bharat Stage have reduced vehicular emissions. We have scenario analyzed no BS norms to BS-IV norms for the fleet of 2020. BS-IV norms have significantly reduced emission factors of gaseous pollutants. In 2017, BSIV was expected to be implemented nationwide in India Elasticity of substitution between individual and public passenger transportation for household groups
Income quartiles Urban Suburban Periphery
Q1 (low) 0.42 0.12 0.51 Q2 0.29 0.12 0.16 Income quartile Q3 0.26 0.21 0.05 Q4 (high) 0.15 0.05 0.05 Decentralized policy options Central State Citi
• Policies and investments for • Policies encouraging deployment • Urban planning – compact cities, public transport improvement of clean vehicles like battery EVs transit-oriented development and expansion • Policies and investments for • Vehicle use and ownership • Improving railway’s freight public transport improvement restraint measures capacity and competitiveness to and expansion • Better parking and traffic promote mode shift from road to • Measure to retire high-polluting management rail freight vehicles • Pedestrian and cycling friendly • Stringent fuel efficiency standards cities for all vehicle categories • EV-ready by-laws • Stringent emission standards for • Ultra-low and low-emission zones all vehicle categories that allow only non-polluting • Policies that support the adoption vehicles of electric vehicles (EVs) and other zero-emission vehicle technologies Key recommendations • Develop a data collection framework focusing on India's transportation sector with inputs from NITI Aayog, modelling teams, and other civil society and government experts. This should be developed by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. • Focus on collecting regular data related to short and long-distance travel behaviour, energy consumption by type of vehicles, number of vehicles by type and emission standard, load factors, and service demand for passenger vehicles and freight transport. • Create policies to avert potential emissions from the transportation sector to achieve deeper decarbonisation. Strengthen current emissions standards to reduce emissions. • Launch a scheme to encourage bus transport in urban areas. Thank you very much santosh@iitm.ac.in
