Security issues in the Asia-Pacific: The Korean issue
Policy Brief – May 2024
Security issues in the Asia-Pacific:
The Korean issue
Kuanysheva Akerke
Research Overview Introduction
The Korean Peninsula remains divided The Korean Peninsula remains a divided
between North and South Korea, with
significant implications for regional nation, its citizens separated by a heavily
security. North Korea's nuclear ambitions
and military tension with South Korea fortified border. North Korea which is
create a volatile situation with potential
for devastating consequences. considered one of the last left dictatorship
The Korean issue is divided into four
chapters: Pre-Division Era, Division and countries with a huge social problem within
Cold War, Post-War Development, and
the border and huge military potential and the
Modern Era. Regional and global powers
such as the US, China, Japan, and Russia
owner of nuclear weapons, and South Korea
play critical roles in the security equation
of North and South Korea. – one of the Asian Tigers whose economy is
Experts advocate for a calibrated
approach combining pressure with booming day to day along with its military
potential rewards for denuclearization,
managing expectations, and addressing power are long been in a prolonged conflicted
North Korea's security concerns and
economic needs. relationship. Both promise to have a
Progress towards peace and reconciliation
depends on North Korea's willingness to substantial impact on events in the coming
denuclearize, successful diplomacy from
year. This unresolved conflict presents a
regional and global powers, and increased
cooperation within the Korean peninsula.
significant security threat in the region. North
Korea's nuclear ambitions and the constant
Security issues in the Asia-Pacific: The Korean issue
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military tension between North and South raise concerns about potential escalation and create a
volatile situation with the potential for devastating consequences. The recent South Korea’s
rapprochement with Japan and North Korea’s embrace of Russia significantly shaped events on
the Korean Peninsula in 2023.
This article will examine the current challenges on the Korean Peninsula, the historical context
that fuels them, and the enduring hope for peace and reconciliation. What are the changes for the
two nations to be united again?
Methodology
This research will employ a multi-pronged approach to analyze security issues surrounding the
Korean Peninsula:
Historical Analysis: Examining historical events and political decisions that led to the
division of Korea and the subsequent rise of tensions.
Strategic Assessments: Evaluating military capabilities and strategies of North and South
Korea, along with the role of regional and global powers in the security equation.
Expert Opinions: Consulting scholarly articles, reports from reputable think tanks, and
interviews with security analysts specializing in the Korean Peninsula.
How did Korea end
up being divided?
The Korean issue can be divided into 4 Despite some periods of dialogue and
chapters: The pre-Division Era, limited economic cooperation, efforts
Division and A Cold War, Post-War towards reunification have largely
Development, and Modern Era. stalled.
Pre-Division. For centuries, Korea existed as a Modern Era
unified kingdom with a rich cultural heritage. Decades of division and hostility have
The latter part of the Joseon Dynasty was fostered deep distrust between North
marked by internal strife, foreign invasions and South Korea. The threat perception
(such as the Japanese invasions of Korea in the on both sides has led to a significant
Security issues in the Asia-Pacific: The Korean issue
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What is the military power?
The military Potential of both countries varies. Briefly, North Korea has a larger army (active
personnel) but lags in tech. South Korea has a smaller but more advanced military with a
stronger air force and navy. The big unknown is North Korea's nuclear capability.
Millitary Power of South and North Korea
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
South Korea North Korea
Total Personnel Active Personnel Reserve Personnel
Regional and global powers play China. It shares a border with North
a critical role in the security Korea and maintains a complex
equation of North and South relationship. China provides some
Korea. economic aid to North Korea but also
United States (US). Main military ally of pressures them on nuclear weapons
South Korea, with around 28,500 troops development. Acts as a potential check
stationed there as a deterrent against North on North Korean actions while also
Korean aggression [Council on Foreign having some leverage over South
Relations] It provides South Korea with Korea. China's stance can influence the
Security issues in the Asia-Pacific: The Korean issue
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Japan.it views North Korea's missile tests as a threat and maintains close security ties with the
US. Offers financial and technological support to South Korea and advocates for stronger
sanctions against North Korea.
Russia: Has some economic ties with North Korea but generally avoids close
involvement. Can act as a spoiler in international efforts to pressure North Korea.
What do experts say?
Scott Snyder (Senior Fellow at the Council Most experts believe some form of gradual
on Foreign Relations) argues for a reconciliation is the most likely scenario.
calibrated approach that combines pressure However, the path forward is uncertain and
with potential rewards for depends on various factors
denuclearization. Soo Kim who is the North Korea's internal politics and
Nonresident Fellow at the Stimson Center economic situation.
emphasizes the importance of managing The effectiveness of international pressure
expectations and avoiding grand bargains and diplomacy.
that may not be achievable. Chung Min The domestic political climate in South
Lee who is International Relations expert Korea.
at Yonsei University highlights the need Overall Experts offer a mix of cautious optimism
for a long-term strategy that addresses and realism. Progress depends on North Korea's
both North Korea's security concerns and willingness to denuclearize, successful diplomacy
its economic needs. from regional and global powers, and a shift
towards greater cooperation within the Korean
peninsula.
In conclusion, the security issues surrounding the Korean Peninsula represent a complex and
enduring challenge in the Asia-Pacific region. The division of Korea following World War II,
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exacerbated by ideological differences and the Korean War, has left a legacy of deep distrust and
military tension between North and South Korea. North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons and
aggressive military posturing, combined with South Korea's economic prosperity and advanced
military capabilities, create a volatile situation with potentially devastating consequences.
Will peace ever be
regained in the region?
Despite efforts towards peace and
Ultimately, achieving lasting peace and
reconciliation, including inter-Korean summits
stability on the Korean Peninsula remains a
and diplomatic initiatives, progress has been
shared goal and a critical priority for the
slow and often hindered by various factors,
including North Korea's internal politics, international community.
international pressure, and the domestic political
climate in South Korea. However, there is
cautious optimism among experts that gradual
reconciliation is possible, contingent upon North
Korea's willingness to denuclearize, successful
diplomacy from regional and global powers, and
a shift towards greater cooperation within the
Korean peninsula.
Moving forward, addressing the security issues
in the Asia-Pacific region requires a
multifaceted approach that combines diplomatic
engagement, economic incentives, and strategic
deterrence.
Regional and global powers must continue to
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Resources
Carr, Andrew, and Joanne Wallis, eds. Asia-Pacific security: an introduction. Georgetown University Press, 2016.
Cronin, P. M., & Lee, S. (2022). Expanding South Korea's Security Role in the Asia-Pacific Region. Council on
Foreign Relations
Park, Jae Jeok. "The US-led alliances in the Asia-Pacific: hedge against potential threats or an undesirable
multilateral security order?." The Pacific Review 24, no. 2 (2011): 137-158.
Cronin, Patrick M., and Seongwon Lee. Expanding South Korea's Security Role in the Asia-Pacific Region. Council
on Foreign Relations., 2022.
Carr, A., & Wallis, J. (Eds.). (2016). Asia-Pacific security: an introduction. Georgetown University Press.
Park, J. J. (2011). The US-led alliances in the Asia-Pacific: hedge against potential threats or an undesirable
multilateral security order?. The Pacific Review, 24(2), 137-158.
