Population In India
EKJYOT KAUR GUJRAL
ASSISTANT PROF OF ECONOMICS
ARMY INSTITUTE OF LAW, MOHALI
Introduction
Population census
Conducted every 10 years
First census- 1872
Till 1951, a census organization was set up on an ad-hoc basis.
Census of India act 1948 was enacted in 1949, whereby the GOI
established an organization under Ministry of Home Affairs.
As per 2011 census, India’s population was 1.2 billion or 121.02 crores.
China had a population of 1.3 billion.
Latest estimates by the World bank, in 2020,
India-138 crores
China-141 crores
Theory of Demographic Transition
Propounded by American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929
It talks about changes in the birth rate and death rate and their impact on
the growth rate of population.
There are 5 stages:
1) High BR and High DR
Low level of eco development. Agriculture is the main occupation, per
capita income is low, std of living is low.
DR is high due to epidemics, famines, lack of medical and health facilities.
BR is high due to joint family set up, children as helping hands in
agriculture.
2) High BR and Low DR
Stage of population explosion
Due to improvement in health and medical facilities, DR starts falling
rapidly.
BR remains high due to the same social set up, customs and beliefs.
3) Declining BR and Low DR
Eco development of the country takes place, structural changes occur, large
part of population starts residing in urban areas.
People attain literacy and start preferring small family norms.
DR is already low so this leads to a decline in the population growth rate.
4) Low BR and Low DR
Stage of stationary population
Due to economic development, std of living becomes very high.
Change in social outlook of people due to urbanization and modernization.
Population becomes stationary at a low rate.
5) Stage of declining population
Population begins to decline
BR is lower than the death rate
Few countries experiencing this stage like Ukraine, Russia, Poland,
Hungary, Japan, Germany, Italy.
Population and Economic Development
A. Impact of Population on Economic Development
B. Impact of Economic Development on Population.
Impact of Population on Economic Development
a) As a growth promoting factor
Increase in production
Increase in demand
Increase in labour supply
Increase in human capital
b) As an obstacle to economic development
Low per capita income
High dependency ratio
𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
Dependency ratio =
𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑝𝑛
It puts a pressure on working age ppn, savings are low, consumption
expenditure is high and hence low capital formation.
Unemployment
Food problem
Housing problem
Poverty
Non economic problems
Adverse impact on environment
Impact of Economic Development on population
Consciousness about standard of living
Increase in the no of working women
Nuclear families
Long working hours with the growth of the private sector
Increase in awareness among people about family planning and benefits of
small family.
Population Explosion in India
Reason is Difference in the Birth rate and Death rate
Birth rate is no of children born per thousand persons a year
Death rate is no of people dying per thousand persons a year.
Year Birth Rate Death Rate
1951 41.7 22.8
2011 22.1 7.2
Causes of High Birth Rate in India
Agriculture being the main occupation
Predominance of villages. Acc to 2011 census, 68.85% ppn lives in rural
areas and remaining 31.15% in urban areas. In rural areas, the cost of
bringing up children is less as compared to urban areas.
Illiteracy
Universality of marriage and children
Early marriage
Effect of religion
Fatalism
Poverty
Joint family system
Low status of women
Causes of Low Death Rate in India
Control over epidemics and famines
Increasing urbanization. In 1911, only 10.3% of the population lived in
urban areas and in 2011, 31.15% of the population is living in urban areas.
Improved medical facilities. There are 38,832 hospitals and dispensaries in
India. There is one doctor per 1300 persons.
Late marriages. Min age for marriage fixed at 18 for women and 21 yrs for
men, by law. Due to this death rate of women and children has gone down.
Better facilities at maternity homes. Increase in the number of nurses and
trained midwives.
Spread of female education due to which women bring up children in a
more hygienic manner.
Theories regarding Overpopulation
A. Malthusian Theory of Population
Thomas Malthus-1798- ‘An Essay on the Principle of population.’
The rate of growth of population is higher than the rate of growth of food
production.
With no food, death rate increases and positive checks get applied
Preventive checks like moral restraint and late marriages are non-existent.
B. Optimum Theory of Population
Edwin Cannan in 1924.
Optimum ppn is the ideal level of ppn which combined with the available
resources will yield maximum income or returns per head.
If ppn exceeds this optimum level, then country is said to be overpopulated.
Per capita income and std of living of the people will fall.
India is not overpopulated
In India, there are ample natural resources available, millions of hectares of
land is lying uncultivated.
There has been an increase in the per capita income. In 1950-51, it was ₹
255 p.a. and in 2020-21 is estimated at ₹ 1,45,679
India’s density of population is comparable with countries which are not
considered overpopulated. In 2011, density in India was 382 persons per sq
km. and in Japan was 351.
Increase in agricultural production. Between 1950-51 to 2012-13, the
growth rate of population was 2% while that of food grain production was
2.7%.
There is scarcity of labourers during sowing and harvesting seasons.
Less application of positive checks as death rate is declining in India.
National Population Policy
Population policy refers to all the legal and administrative measures which
aim at reducing birth rate and improving the quality of life.
Population policy of 1976: Declared on 16 April 1976. It was made
compulsory for the people to adopt birth control measures.
Revised Population policy of 1977: Renamed as family welfare policy.
Adoption of birth control measures on voluntary basis.
New Population Policy 2000:
i. Announced on 15 February 2000.
ii. Affirmed the commitment of the govt towards voluntary consent of the
people while availing reproductive health care services.
iii. Organizations were constituted at 3 levels:
National Commission on Population: Presided over by PM, Chief ministers
of the states & administrators of UTs to be the members.
State Commission on Population: In every state, headed by the Chief
minister of the state.
Policy to be implemented by panchayats, municipalities and NGOs.
iv. Included a provision for freezing the no. of seats in the Lok Sabha at 545
based on 1971 census till 2026.
v. Promotional and motivational measures including disbursement of cash
incentives for small family norms. Couples below poverty line who adopt
birth control measures with not more than two living children, would get
a health insurance of ₹ 5000.
vi. Achieve zero growth rate of ppn by 2045.
vii. To reduce infant mortality rate and maternal mortality rate.
Family Planning
Planning the size of the family in accordance with the income and means
of the family.
Importance of family planning
Benefit to children
Benefit to parents
Benefit to the society
Benefit to the nation
𝑁𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
↓ Per Capita Y =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 ↑
Features of population growth
Growth rate of population
Till 1921, there was no growth of ppn. 1921 to 1951, ppn increased at a
rapid rate.
1921 is termed as a year of ‘Great Divide’.
1951 to 1981, time period of population explosion.
Density of population
No of persons per square kilometer.
In 2011, density of ppn of India was 382 persons per sq km.
Max for Bihar- 1102 Min for Arunachal Pradesh- 17
Among UTs, Delhi(max)- 11,320 Andaman &Nicobar Islands (min)- 46
Sex ratio
2011 census, 940 females to 1000 males.
Kerala (only state with a favorable sex ratio) -1084
Min for Daman & Diu-618. Punjab- 893, Haryana- 877
Literacy
Any person above the age of 7 yrs, who can read and write in any
language.
2011- 74.04%
Male literacy- 82.14% Female literacy 65.46%
Highest –Kerala 93.9% Lowest in Bihar- 63.8%
Highest Female literacy- 92% Lowest in Rajasthan- 52.7%
Occupational Structure
Percentage of population engaged in different sectors of the economy.
Occupation 2011-12 2019
Agriculture 48.9 43.21
Industry 24.3 24.89
Services 26.8 31.9
