Statistics and Probability Basics
1. Mean (Average)
The mean is the sum of all values divided by the number of values.
Formula:
Mean = (Sum of all values) ÷ (Number of values)
Example: If test scores are 80, 85, 90, 95, then:
Mean = (80 + 85 + 90 + 95) ÷ 4
Mean = 350 ÷ 4 = 87.5
2. Variance (Spread of Data)
Variance measures how far data points are from the mean.
Formula:
Variance (σ²) = [(X₁ - Mean)² + (X₂ - Mean)² + ... + (Xₙ - Mean)²] ÷ N
Example: If the test scores are 80, 85, 90, 95 and the mean is 87.5, then:
Variance = [(80 - 87.5)² + (85 - 87.5)² + (90 - 87.5)² + (95 - 87.5)²] ÷ 4
Variance = [(56.25) + (6.25) + (6.25) + (56.25)] ÷ 4
Variance = 125 ÷ 4 = 31.25
3. Standard Deviation (√Variance)
The standard deviation (σ) is the square root of variance.
Formula:
Standard Deviation = √Variance
Example:
Standard Deviation = √31.25 ≈ 5.59
4. Z-Score (Standard Score)
A Z-score tells us how far a data point is from the mean in terms of standard deviations.
Formula:
Z = (X - Mean) ÷ Standard Deviation
Example: If a test score is 90, the mean is 87.5, and the standard deviation is 5.59, then:
Z = (90 - 87.5) ÷ 5.59
Z = 2.5 ÷ 5.59 ≈ 0.45
A Z-score of 0.45 means the score is 0.45 standard deviations above the mean.
Understanding Normal Distribution and Z-Scores
1. Identifying Regions Under the Normal Curve
The normal distribution (bell curve) is symmetric, with most data clustering around the mean. The total
area under the curve is 1 (or 100%), representing all possible outcomes.
Different Z-scores correspond to specific areas (probabilities) under the curve:
• Z = 0 → Mean (50% of data lies below this point).
• Z = 1 → ~84% of data lies below.
• Z = -1 → ~16% of data lies below.
• Z = 2 → ~97.5% of data lies below.
• Z = -2 → ~2.5% of data lies below.
Empirical Rule (68-95-99.7 Rule)
• 68% of data falls within ±1 standard deviation (σ) of the mean.
• 95% falls within ±2σ.
• 99.7% falls within ±3σ.
2. Computing Probability for a Given Random Variable (X)
To compute probability, convert the random variable (X) to a Z-score and use a Z-table or calculator.
Formula to Find Z-Score:
Z = (X - μ) / σ
Where:
• X = observed value
• μ = mean
• σ = standard deviation
Example:
• A class’s test scores are normally distributed with μ = 75 and σ = 5.
• Find the probability that a student scores below 80.
Step 1: Convert to Z-score
Z = (80 - 75) / 5 = 5 / 5 = 1
Step 2: Find Probability from Z-Table
A Z-score of 1 corresponds to 0.8413, meaning 84.13% of students score below 80.
3. Interpreting the Mean and Variance of a Probability Distribution
• Mean (Expected Value, E[X]): The central tendency of the distribution.
• Variance (σ²): Measures how much values spread around the mean.
Example: If a die is rolled, with outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, the expected value is:
E[X] = (1+2+3+4+5+6) / 6 = 3.5
Variance measures how much actual values deviate from 3.5.
4. Z-Score Calculations in Different Scenarios
(a) Z-Score is Given
If the Z-score is already provided, use it to find probabilities directly from the Z-table.
Example: If Z = 1.5, the probability of scoring below that value is 0.9332, or 93.32%.
(b) Z-Score is NOT Given (Find it First)
If X, μ, and σ are given, calculate Z first:
Z = (X - μ) / σ
Example:
• A student scores 88 in a test where μ = 75, σ = 5.
• Find their Z-score:
Z = (88 - 75) / 5 = 13 / 5 = 2.6
A Z-score of 2.6 corresponds to 0.9953, meaning 99.53% of students scored below 88.
(c) Percentage is Given (Find X or Z)
If given a percentage (probability), use the Z-table in reverse to find the Z-score, then solve for X.
Example:
• The top 10% of students qualify for an award.
• What’s the minimum qualifying score if μ = 75, σ = 5?
Step 1: Find Z for 90% (since 10% are above).
• From the Z-table, Z = 1.28.
Step 2: Solve for X:
X = μ + (Z × σ)
X = 75 + (1.28 × 5) = 75 + 6.4 = 81.4
A student needs at least 81.4 to be in the top 10%.
(d) Whole Number is Given (Find Probability)
Convert X to a Z-score and look up probability.
Example: Find P(X > 90) when μ = 75, σ = 5.
Step 1: Convert to Z
Z = (90 - 75) / 5 = 15 / 5 = 3
Step 2: Find probability from Z-table
P(Z < 3) = 0.9987 → 99.87% score below 90.
Thus, P(X > 90) = 1 - 0.9987 = 0.0013 → 0.13% chance of scoring above 90.
Summary
1. Identify normal curve regions using the empirical rule.
2. Compute probabilities by converting X to a Z-score and checking the Z-table.
3. Interpret mean and variance as indicators of central tendency and spread.
4. Z-score calculations vary based on given data:
o If Z is given → Use Z-table.
o If Z is missing → Calculate first using Z = (X - μ) / σ.
o If a percentage is given → Find Z from the table, then solve for X.
o If X is a whole number → Convert to Z, then check probability.
