Environmental consequences of global warming

Global warming and its impact explained The perceptible warming of Earth over the past 150 years
has been caused by an increase in the emission of gases such as carbon dioxide, which amplify the
greenhouse effect.(more)

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Global warming and climate change have the potential to alter biological systems. More
specifically, changes to near-surface air temperatures will likely influence ecosystem functioning
and thus the biodiversity of plants, animals, and other forms of life. The current geographic ranges
of plant and animal species have been established by adaptation to long-term
seasonal climate patterns. As global warming alters these patterns on timescales considerably
shorter than those that arose in the past from natural climate variability, relatively sudden climatic
changes may challenge the natural adaptive capacity of many species.

A large fraction of plant and animal species are likely to be at an increased risk
of extinction if global average surface temperatures rise another 1.5 to 2.5 °C (2.7 to 4.5
°F) by the year 2100. Species loss estimates climb to as much as 40 percent for a
warming in excess of 4.5 °C (8.1 °F)—a level that could be reached in the IPCC’s higher
emissions scenarios. A 40 percent extinction rate would likely lead to major changes in
the food webs within ecosystems and have a destructive impact on ecosystem function.
How climate change affects bird migration patternsLearn how global warming affects the migratory
patterns of birds.(more)
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Surface warming in temperate regions is likely to lead changes in various seasonal
processes—for instance, earlier leaf production by trees, earlier greening of vegetation,
altered timing of egg laying and hatching, and shifts in the seasonal migration patterns
of birds, fishes, and other migratory animals. In high-latitude ecosystems, changes in
the seasonal patterns of sea ice threaten predators such as polar bears and walruses;
both species rely on broken sea ice for their hunting activities. Also in the high latitudes,
a combination of warming waters, decreased sea ice, and changes in ocean salinity and
circulation is likely to lead to reductions or redistributions in populations
of algae and plankton. As a result, fish and other organisms that forage upon algae and
plankton may be threatened. On land, rising temperatures and changes
in precipitation patterns and drought frequencies are likely to alter patterns of
disturbance by fires and pests.

Numerous ecologists, conservation biologists, and other scientists studying climate

warn that rising surface temperatures will bring about an increased extinction risk. In
2015 one study that examined 130 extinction models developed in previous studies
predicted that 5.2 percent of species would be lost with a rise in average temperatures of
2 °C (3.6 °F) above temperature benchmarks from before the onset of the Industrial
Revolution. The study also predicted that 16 percent of Earth’s species would be lost if
surface warming increased to about 4.3 °C (7.7 °F) above preindustrial temperature
benchmarks.

Other likely impacts on the environment include the destruction of many

coastal wetlands, salt marshes, and mangrove swamps as a result of rising sea levels and
the loss of certain rare and fragile habitats that are often home to specialist species that
are unable to thrive in other environments. For example, certain amphibians limited to
isolated tropical cloud forests either have become extinct already or are under serious
threat of extinction. Cloud forests—tropical forests that depend on
persistent condensation of moisture in the air—are disappearing as optimal
condensation levels move to higher elevations in response to warming temperatures in
the lower atmosphere.

coral polypCross section of a generalized coral polyp.

In many cases a combination of stresses caused by climate change as well as human
activity represents a considerably greater threat than either climatic stresses or
nonclimatic stresses alone. A particularly important example is coral reefs, which
contain much of the ocean’s biodiversity. Rising ocean temperatures increase the
tendency for coral bleaching (a condition where zooxanthellae, or yellow-green algae,
living in symbiosis with coral either lose their pigments or abandon the
coral polyps altogether), and they also raise the likelihood of greater physical damage by
progressively more destructive tropical cyclones. In many areas coral is also under stress
from increased ocean acidification (see above), marine pollution, runoff from
agricultural fertilizer, and physical damage by boat anchors and dredging.
Another example of how climate and nonclimatic stresses combine is illustrated by the
threat to migratory animals. As these animals attempt to relocate to regions with more
favourable climate conditions, they are likely to encounter impediments such as
highways, walls, artificial waterways, and other man-made structures.

Anopheles mosquitoAnopheles mosquito, carrier of the malarial parasite.

Warmer temperatures are also likely to affect the spread of infectious diseases, since the
geographic ranges of carriers, such as insects and rodents, are often limited by climatic
conditions. Warmer winter conditions in New York in 1999, for example, appear to
have facilitated an outbreak of West Nile virus, whereas the lack of killing frosts in New
Orleans during the early 1990s led to an explosion of disease-
carrying mosquitoes and cockroaches. Warmer winters in the Korean peninsula and
southern Europe have allowed the spread of the Anopheles mosquito, which carries
the malaria parasite, whereas warmer conditions in Scandinavia in recent years have
allowed for the northward advance of encephalitis.

In the southwestern United States, alternations between drought and flooding related in
part to the ENSO phenomenon have created conditions favourable for the spread
of hantaviruses by rodents. The spread of mosquito-borne Rift Valley fever in
equatorial East Africa has also been related to wet conditions in the region associated
with ENSO. Severe weather conditions conducive to rodents or insects have been
implicated in infectious disease outbreaks—for instance, the outbreaks
of cholera and leptospirosis that occurred after Hurricane Mitch struck Central
America in 1998. Global warming could therefore affect the spread of infectious disease
through its influence on ENSO or on severe weather conditions.

Socioeconomic consequences of global

warming
Socioeconomic impacts of global warming could be substantial, depending on the actual
temperature increases over the next century. Models predict that a net global warming
of 1 to 3 °C (1.8 to 5.4 °F) beyond the late 20th-century global average would produce
economic losses in some regions (particularly the tropics and high latitudes) and
economic benefits in others. For warming beyond those levels, benefits would tend to
decline and costs increase. For warming in excess of 4 °C (7.2 °F), models predict that
costs will exceed benefits on average, with global mean economic losses estimated
between 1 and 5 percent of gross domestic product. Substantial disruptions could be
expected under those conditions, specifically in the areas
of agriculture, food and forest products, water and energy supply, and human health.

Agricultural productivity might increase modestly in temperate regions for some crops
in response to a local warming of 1–3 °C (1.8–5.4 °F), but productivity will generally
decrease with further warming. For tropical and subtropical regions, models predict
decreases in crop productivity for even small increases in local warming. In some
cases, adaptations such as altered planting practices are projected to ameliorate losses
in productivity for modest amounts of warming. An increased incidence
of drought and flood events would likely lead to further decreases in agricultural
productivity and to decreases in livestock production, particularly among subsistence
farmers in tropical regions. In regions such as the African Sahel, decreases in
agricultural productivity have already been observed as a result of shortened growing
seasons, which in turn have occurred as a result of warmer and drier climatic
conditions. In other regions, changes in agricultural practice, such as planting crops
earlier in the growing season, have been undertaken. The warming of oceans is
predicted to have an adverse impact on commercial fisheries by changing the
distribution and productivity of various fish species, whereas commercial timber
productivity may increase globally with modest warming.

Water resources are likely to be affected substantially by global warming. At current

rates of warming, a 10–40 percent increase in average surface runoff and water
availability has been projected in higher latitudes and in certain wet regions in the
tropics by the middle of the 21st century, while decreases of similar magnitude are
expected in other parts of the tropics and in the dry regions in the subtropics. This
would be particularly severe during the summer season. In many cases water availability
is already decreasing or expected to decrease in regions that have been stressed for
water resources since the turn of the 21st century. Such regions as the African Sahel,
western North America, southern Africa, the Middle East, and
western Australia continue to be particularly vulnerable. In these regions drought is
projected to increase in both magnitude and extent, which would bring about adverse
effects on agriculture and livestock raising. Earlier and increased spring runoff is
already being observed in western North America and other temperate regions served by
glacial or snow-fed streams and rivers. Fresh water currently stored by mountain
glaciers and snow in both the tropics and extratropics is also projected to decline and
thus reduce the availability of fresh water for more than 15 percent of the world’s
population. It is also likely that warming temperatures, through their impact on
biological activity in lakes and rivers, may have an adverse impact on water quality,
further diminishing access to safe water sources for drinking or farming. For example,
warmer waters favour an increased frequency of nuisance algal blooms, which can pose
health risks to humans. Risk-management procedures have already been taken by some
countries in response to expected changes in water availability.

Energy availability and use could be affected in at least two distinct ways by rising
surface temperatures. In general, warmer conditions would favour an increased demand
for air-conditioning; however, this would be at least partially offset by decreased
demand for winter heating in temperate regions. Energy generation that requires water
either directly, as in hydroelectric power, or indirectly, as in steam turbines used in coal-
fired power plants or in cooling towers used in nuclear power plants, may become more
difficult in regions with reduced water supplies.

As discussed above, it is expected that human health will be further stressed under
global warming conditions by potential increases in the spread of infectious diseases.
Declines in overall human health might occur with increases in the levels
of malnutrition due to disruptions in food production and by increases in the incidence
of afflictions. Such afflictions could include diarrhea, cardiorespiratory illness, and
allergic reactions in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere as a result of rising
levels of pollen. Rising heat-related mortality, such as that observed in response to
the 2003 European heat wave, might occur in many regions, especially in impoverished
areas where air-conditioning is not generally available.

The economic infrastructure of most countries is predicted to be severely strained by

global warming and climate change. Poor countries and communities with limited
adaptive capacities are likely to be disproportionately affected. Projected increases in
the incidence of severe weather, heavy flooding, and wildfires associated with reduced
summer ground moisture in many regions will threaten homes, dams, transportation
networks and other facets of human infrastructure. In high-latitude and mountain
regions, melting permafrost is likely to lead to ground instability or rock avalanches,
further threatening structures in those regions. Rising sea levels and the increased
potential for severe tropical cyclones represent a heightened threat to coastal
communities throughout the world. It has been estimated that an additional warming of
1–3 °C (1.8–5.4 °F) beyond the late 20th-century global average would threaten millions
more people with the risk of annual flooding. People in the densely populated, poor,
low-lying regions of Africa, Asia, and tropical islands would be the most vulnerable,
given their limited adaptive capacity. In addition, certain regions in developed
countries, such as the Low Countries of Europe and the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf
Coast of the United States, would also be vulnerable to the effects of rising sea levels.
Adaptive steps are already being taken by some governments to reduce the threat of
increased coastal vulnerability through the construction of dams and drainage works.