Probability & Statistics
(MT2006)
Spring 2025
E n g r. Fa h a d H a s e eb
L ec t u re r
P h D C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g , FA S T- N U C E S L a h o r e – R e s e a r c h P h a s e
L ab Director – Environmental Engineering Lab (NUCES)
Reviewer Fo r In ternational Jo urnals
Author & C o-autho r of Mult iple Publications
Assessment Policy
Quizzes (3) = 15%
Mid Term Exams (2) = 30%
Assignments (3) = 10%
Final Exam (1) = 45%
Textbook:
◦ Probability & Statistics for Engineers and
Scientists, 9th Edition by R. E. Walpole, R. H.
Myers, S. L. Myers and Keying Ye
Course Outline
Presentation of Data: Classification, tabulation, classes, graphical representation,
histograms, frequency polygons, frequency curves and their types.
Measures of Central Tendency: Means: Arithmetic Means, Geometric Means, Harmonic
Mean and their properties, Weighted mean, median, quartile, mode and their relations,
Merits, and demerits of Averages.
Measures of Dispersion: Range, moments, skewness, quartile deviation, mean deviation,
standard deviation, variance and its coefficients, kurtosis.
Curve Fitting: Goodness of fit, Fitting a straight line, parabola, and circle.
Simple Regression: Scatter diagram, linear regression, and correlation.
Probability: Definitions, sample space, events, Laws of probability, conditional probability,
Dependent and independent events.
Random Variable: Introduction, distribution function, discrete random variable and its
probability distribution, Continuous random variable and its probability density function,
Mathematical expectation of a random variable, Moment generating functions.
Probability Distribution: Binomial, Poisson, uniform, exponential and normal distribution
functions and its approximation to Poisson distribution.
Course Objectives
To understand the basic principles of statistical and
probabilistic analysis. This includes:
◦ data organization
◦ analysis and use of appropriate methods
To identify, evaluate and interpret data using
probability theory, distributions, curve fitting and
regression analysis.
Probability & Statistics
Probability
◦ Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning
numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to
occur.
◦ The higher the probability of an event, the more likely
it is that the event is likely to occur.
◦ A simple example is tossing a coin or rolling a dice
Statistics
◦ Statistics is the science concerned with developing and
studying methods for collecting, analyzing,
interpreting and presenting data.
◦ Science which enables us to draw conclusions about
various phenomena based on real life data.
Importance of Statistics
Summarize the larger sets of data in a form that is easily understandable
Assists in efficient design of lab and field experiments
Helps in sound and effective planning in any field of inquiry
Helps in drawing conclusions and in making predictions
Modern administrative use statistical data to provide a factual basis for
decision
Social scientist uses it in various areas of socioeconomic life of a nation
Branches of Statistics
STATISTICS
INTERFERENTIAL STATISTICS
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
(to draw conclusions from
(summary and compilation;
sample data about population;
tables and graphs)
probabilistic in nature)
Concept of Data
Data is result of observations/ information (numerical facts).
Datum is singular and Data is plural.
Types of data:
Data
Quantitative Qualitative
(numeric; e.g., height, (non-numeric; e.g., wood
weight, marks etc.) type, cement type etc.)
Concept of Variable
A characteristic/quantity that varies with an
individual or an object
Variables may be classified as discrete or
continuous
Variable
Continuous Discrete
(e.g., height, weight (e.g., chairs, tables,
etc.) samples etc.)
Basic Definitions
Population
◦ The collection of all individuals, items or data of similar type under
consideration in a statistical study.
◦ Examples ?
Sample
◦ That part of the population from which information is collected.
◦ Examples ?
Sampling
What is your population of interest?
To whom do you want to generalize your results?
◦ All doctors
◦ School children
◦ Indians
◦ Men aged 15-30
◦ Other
Can you sample the entire population?
Sampling
Three factors that influence sample representativeness:
◦ Sampling procedure
◦ Sample size
◦ Participation (responses)
When might you sample the entire population?
◦ When your population is very small
◦ When you have extensive resources
◦ When you don’t expect a very high response.
Sampling
Much care should be devoted to sampling
There is always going to be some error involved in
making inferences about the populations based on
the samples.
The goal is to minimize this error as much as
possible.
Types of Sampling
1. Simple Random Sampling
◦ Implies that any sample of a specified sample size
has the same chance of being selected as any other
sample of the same size (lottery method).
◦ Population is homogeneous for specific parameter.
2. Non-Random Sampling – Biased Samples
◦ When some members of a population are more
likely to be selected in a sample than others (one’s
personal preference).
3. Stratified random sampling
◦ Involves taking samples of a population subdivided
into smaller groups called strata (each strata has
homogeneous population).
Measure of Central Tendency
Measure of Central Tendency
Example: Mean and Median
Example: Mean and Median
Types of Mean
Arithmetic mean (Simple mean)
Geometric Mean
Harmonic Mean
Weighted Mean
Arithmetic mean
(Simple mean)
The arithmetic mean is the simplest and
most widely used measure of a mean, or
average.
It simply involves taking the sum of a group
of numbers, then dividing that sum by the
count of the numbers used in the series.
Calculate the mean from the
following data series:
Marks (X) No. of
Students (f)
0-10 6
10-20 14
20-30 42
30-40 28
40-50 10
Calculate the mean from the
following data series:
Marks (X) No. of Mid fX
Students (f) Values (X)
0-10 6 5 30
10-20 14 15 210
20-30 42 25 1050
30-40 28 35 980
40-50 10 45 450
Weighted mean
A weighted average is one where each item being
averaged is multiplied by a number (weight) based on
the item's relative importance, rather than treating
each item equally. No. of Students (35) Marks (X)
10 9.5
15 8.5
5 7.5
2 6.5
3 5.5
Geometric mean
Geometric mean is used
where we deal with a quantity
whose changes tend to be
directly proportional to the
quantity itself (multiplication),
e.g., population.
Year Population
1995 5.0 M
2000 5.2 M
2005 5.6 M
2010 6.2 M
2015 6.4 M
Harmonic mean
The harmonic mean is defined as the reciprocal of
the arithmetic mean of the reciprocals of the
values.
Harmonic means are often used
in averaging things like rates
(e.g., average travel speed given
a duration of several trips).
