Thayer U.S. AID Suspension and Impact On Vietnam
Uploaded by
Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer U.S. AID Suspension and Impact On Vietnam
Uploaded by
Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
carl@thayerconsultancy.com.au U.S. AID Suspension and Impact
on Vietnam
Carlyle A. Thayer
February 8, 2025
As a follow up to our previous request for an assessment of the impact on the
suspension of U.S. aid on Vietnam, we request your response to the follow2ing five
questions:
Q1. Which populations in Vietnam are most likely to be affected by the suspension of
U.S. foreign aid?
ANSWER: Four broad sections of Vietnam’s population will be immediately affected
by the suspension of U.S. AID foreign assistance:
Tuberculosis infected persons living throughout Vietnam, including those who have
been diagnosed and are currently being treated and those who are infected but have
not been medically screened. There is a risk that those in the latter group could pass
on tuberculosis to family members, workmates and those in the community with
whom they come into contact.
The World Health Organization recognizes Vietnam as a high-burden country for TB
and MDR TB. In 2023, the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in Vietnam was 182 cases per
100,000 people. The highest incidence is in the southern parts of the country,
especially in Ho Chi Minh City. TB is a major cause of death and illness in Vietnam.
Around 13,200 people die each year from TB making Vietnam one of the top 30
countries with the highest incidence of TB in the world.
HIV/AIDS infected persons. The HIV prevalence rate in Vietnam is around 0.3% among
the general population aged 15-49, with the epidemic concentrated primarily among
key populations like injecting drug users (IDUs), female sex workers (FSWs), and men
who have sex with men (MSM).
The suspension of the U.S. AID program will impact of persons living throughout
Vietnam, including those who have been diagnosed and are currently being treated
and those who are infected but have not been medically screened. There is the risk
that those in the latter group could pass on HIV/AIDS to their sexual partners. For
example, according to UNAIDS estimates, 6,100 people were newly infected with HIV
in Viet Nam in 2023 (2024 Global AIDS Report)
Dioxin poisoning victims who work at Bien Hoa Airbase and the immediate community;
they could absorb dioxin into their bodies and become ill, also they could pass the
effects of dioxin to children born in 2025 and after.
2
In addition, a cessation of U.S. AID’s mine clearance program in Quang Binh province
would put the rural population in affected areas at risk.
Victims of natural disasters especially in coastal communities.
Q2. How do vulnerable groups, such as rural communities, disabled veterans, or ethnic
minorities, rely on this aid?
ANSWER: U.S. AID provides funding for a variety of medical and technical support for
local health systems, private sector sustainability support, supply chain procurement
and management, and supply chain quality assurance.
U.S. AID funds the Closing Gaps to End TB (C-GET) program by providing assistance in
support of Vietnam’s national strategy to reduce to incidence of tuberculosis. For
example, in January 2025 U.S. AID agreed to fund a project to draw up new technical
guidelines to enhance TB detection and case management.
U.S. AID funds the Global Health and Technical Mission Support program, or GH-TAMS,
to provide shelter and cash relief for vulnerable storm-affected households and
disaster readiness.
U.S. AID funds efforts to remediate dioxin poisoning at Bien Hoa Air Base by installing
thermal sensor technology and by scrapping up half a million cubic metres of highly-
contaminated and low contaminated soil for treatment in soil special containers.
Q3. Are there specific regions or sectors within Vietnam that would face the most
immediate challenges due to the cut in foreign assistance?
U.S. AID funding to address HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis is a national program.
U.S. AID funding to address dioxin affects those living at or near Bien Hoa Air Base and
Da Nang Airport where in-pile thermal desorption remediation has not been
completed.
The suspension of U.S. AID funding for natural disasters would have an immediate
impact on communities in provinces where Cyclone Yagi struck, and potentially
communities that are affected by natural disasters anywhere in Vietnam in 2025.
Q4. Has U.S. foreign aid played a role in promoting human rights and governance
reforms in Vietnam?
ANSWER: U.S. AID funds a number of government and civil society programs that
address human rights and governance reform in Vietnam. These are mainly discrete
technical programs. For example, U.S. AID funded seven programs in 2024: local
capacity development, identification of human remains, counter-trafficking in
persons, good governance, environmental assistance, technical support for Juvenile
Justice Law, study of prosecutorial discretion, and civic participation
Q5. What are the potential consequences of cutting off aid in these areas?
ANSWER: A suspension of U.S. AID foreign assistance for government and civil society
programs would immediately cause these programs to be suspended. A suspension
of foreign assistance would undermine political trust in the United States by local and
central government officials who participated in these programs.
3
U.S. soft power appeal – as defined as the power of example – would be severely
degraded because of the manner in which aid suspension was carried out.
Q6. How do you foresee the suspension of aid affecting the ongoing efforts to improve
transparency, rule of law, and freedom of expression in Vietnam?
ANSWER: U.S. AID programs have been very discrete in addressing such sensitive
issues. A suspension of U.S. foreign assistance would interrupt programs that proceed
incrementally over long periods of time especially those related to transparency and
rule of law.
Q7. The U.S. has provided aid for Vietnam’s security sector, especially in the context
of maritime security in the South China Sea. How might the suspension of aid impact
Vietnam’s defense capabilities and regional security efforts?
ANSWER: In 2024, Vietnam was the third largest recipient of U.S. foreign assistance
among twenty-two countries in the East Asia and Oceania region. Vietnam received
U.S. $140 million in development assistance from all United States government
agencies. General environmental protection (first), basic health (second), HIV/AIDS
(third), and government and civil society (fifth) ranked in the top half of all sectors
receiving aid.
In U.S. dollar terms, the highest funded activities in 2024 were: civil works for dioxin
remediation at Bien Hoa Airbase area ($24.99m), Meeting Targets and Maintaining
Epidemic Control or TMEC ($#13.11m), architect/engineer services for dioxin
remediation at Bien Hoa Air Base ($7.51m), Fulbright University ($6.65m),
Strengthening [land] Tenure and Resources Rights or STARR II IDIQ ($6.01m),
biodiversity conservation ($5.99m), Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative Mekong
Leadership Program ($5.51m), and national TB [tuberculosis] program or NTP ($5.1m).
No official U.S. AID foreign assistance funds go to Vietnam’s defence and security
sectors, except dioxin remediation which involves U.S. AID working with Vietnam’s
Ministry of National Defence. A suspension of U.S. AID funding will have negligible
impact on Vietnam’s defense capabilities and regional security efforts.
Q8. How do you think the Vietnamese government might respond to the suspension
of US. aid?
ANSWER: The Vietnamese government will be circumspect about what they say in
public because any comment which is construed as critical of the Trump
Administration is likely to draw attention to Vietnam and have a negative
consequences on bilateral relations.
Q9. Will they try to secure assistance from other countries or adjust their domestic
policies to compensate for the loss?
ANSWER: Vietnamese leaders will do both. Wealthy foreign aid donors are already
assessing where they might step in to minimize the impact of Trump’s aid cuts.
The Vietnamese government, now in the process of a major effort to streamline the
government apparatus and merge ministries, will have to scramble to pick up the
pieces. In other words, all hands will be called on deck to work out an emergency
response especially in critical public health areas.
4
Q10. What strategies might Vietnam employ to mitigate the impact of this
suspension, and how feasible are these alternatives?
ANSWER: Vietnam will have to adopt a policy of triage in the present circumstances.
Vietnam will have to identify priority areas, shift resources, and accept what
emergency aid is offered by foreign countries, international institutions and non-
governmental agencies. Areas that do not make the priority list will be delayed or
suspended.
The prospects are dim, however, because Vietnam is a low middle income country and
it will have to take its place in the queue behind less developing countries in Africa
and the Indo-Pacific.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “U.S. AID Suspension and Impact on Vietnam,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February 8, 2025. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
