Fintech 03 00029
Fintech 03 00029
1 Department of Business Analytics, Dublin Business School, 13/14 Aungier St, D02 WC04 Dublin, Ireland
2 School of Computing, Dublin City University, D09 V209 Dublin, Ireland; kislay.raj2@mail.dcu.ie
3 Aerospace Engineering Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA;
arunabhr.umich@gmail.com
* Correspondence: moumita.barua22@gmail.com (M.B.); teerath.menghwar2@mail.dcu.ie or
teerath.kumar@dbs.ie (T.K.)
Abstract: This research presents a comparative analysis of various deep learning models—including
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Net-
works (CNN), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Attention LSTM—in predicting stock prices of
major companies in the Indian stock market, specifically HDFC, TCS, ICICI, Reliance, and Nifty.
The study evaluates model performance using key regression metrics such as Mean Absolute Er-
ror (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and R-Squared (R²). The results indicate that CNN and
GRU models generally outperform the others, depending on the specific stock, and demonstrate
superior capabilities in forecasting stock price movements. This investigation provides insights into
the strengths and limitations of each model while highlighting potential avenues for improvement
through feature engineering and hyperparameter optimization.
Keywords: stock prediction; deep learning; recurrent neural networks; long short-term memory;
convolutional neural networks; Indian stock market
dependencies. LSTM and GRU architectures, with their memory cells and gating mech-
anisms, effectively address these limitations, enabling them to discern both short-term
fluctuations and long-term trends in time-series data.
Additionally, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), which have primarily been
utilized for image processing, have demonstrated potential in financial forecasting by
identifying local temporal patterns in stock prices [7]. Hybrid models that integrate LSTM
networks with attention mechanisms further enhance predictive accuracy by focusing on
essential components of the input sequence.
Despite the growing body of literature on the application of deep learning models for
stock price prediction, there remains a paucity of comprehensive comparisons regarding
the efficacy of these models across various stocks, particularly within the Indian market.
This study aims to bridge this gap by conducting a thorough comparative analysis of
RNN, LSTM, CNN, GRU, and Attention LSTM models in predicting the stock prices of
five major Indian companies: HDFC, TCS, ICICI, Reliance, and the Nifty 50 index [9].
These companies are pivotal to key sectors of the Indian economy, making them suitable
candidates for evaluating the effectiveness of different deep-learning strategies [10].
Furthermore, this study will not only elucidate the performance of various models in
stock price prediction but will also discuss the implications of these findings for investors
and practitioners in the financial sector. The following sections will provide a comprehen-
sive literature review of existing research on stock price prediction using deep learning
methodologies, detailing the processes of data acquisition and model deployment. This
will be followed by an in-depth comparison of the results and a discussion of the broader
implications of the study’s findings.
3.2.2. Normalization
With the diverse nature of stock prices and trading volumes, we normalized all features
using Min-Max scaling, resulting in a range of [0,1]. Achieving faster convergence speed
in deep learning models while ensuring none overpower the learning process depends
significantly on this normalization technique [38,39]. Many financial forecasting techniques
find MinMax normalization helpful, as it improves performance with extensive datasets
featuring different scales. The normalization formula is as follows:
x − xmin
xnorm = (1)
xmax − xmin
where x is the original feature value, xmin is the minimum value of the feature, and xmax is
the maximum value of the feature.
data comprised 80% of the total dataset, covering the period from January 2016 through
December 2020, while the testing set included the remaining 20%, spanning January to
December 2021.
This chronological split is crucial for time-series data, as it prevents information
leakage from future data points into the training process, thereby preserving the model’s
predictive validity [39,40]. By leveraging historical data for training and unseen recent
data for validation, the split simulates realistic forecasting conditions. Additionally, this
partitioning exposed the model to diverse market phases, including growth cycles, market
corrections, and periods of heightened volatility, thereby enriching its learning experience
under varied conditions.
3.3.2. LSTM
The creation of LSTM networks was meant to address the deficiencies of regular RNNs
through the deployment of memory cells that can hold information for prolonged lengths of
time [46]. The recognition capability of memory cells in LSTMs for immediate and historical
dependencies makes them extremely valuable for stock price prediction, because trends
usually follow long-term styles [37,40,47]. The LSTM model as part of this research includes
two LSTM layers, each composed of 64 units, leading to a dense layer for final predictions.
An addition of a dropout layer helped alleviate overfitting [48].
3.3.3. CNN
Generally speaking, CNNs are employed in image processing, but they have also been
modified for time-series data owing to their strength in local pattern recognition [39,49]. By
sliding a filter over the time series, CNNs in stock price forecasting can detect short-term
trends, including rapid price changes and minor corrections [35,39,50]. The CNN model
implemented in this study consists of one convolutional layer, which has 64 filters and a
kernel that is 3 in size. Once these layers are complete, the maximum pooling layers are
in place to contract feature maps and lower the computational weight. In the end, the
model features a fully connected dense layer to deliver the predicted stock prices. CNNs
have shown a remarkable ability to uncover short-term trends while successfully adding to
financial forecasting models [39].
3.3.4. GRU
GRUs exhibit a prototype of LSTMs that simplify computational complexity by fusing
the forget gate and the input gate into an update gate [33,40,44,47]. In conditions where
computational resources are limited, the fast training capabilities of these GRUs together
with their potential to analyze long-term dependencies make them suitable for stock price
prediction [47]. The GRU model employed in this study has two layers of GRU with
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64 units each, followed by an output layer that is dense. Showings reveal that GRUs can
perform better than LSTMs in specific time-series forecasting jobs thanks to their simplified
designs and faster convergence.
where yi is the actual value, ŷi is the predicted value, and n is the total number of
data points.
Mean Squared Error (MSE): MSE places greater emphasis on larger errors, making it
more sensitive to outliers, which can be significant in stock price forecasting [52].
n
1
MSE =
n ∑ (yi − ŷi )2 (3)
i =1
Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE): RMSE, the square root of MSE, provides an error
metric in the original scale of stock prices, often preferred for its interpretability in financial
applications [52]. s
n
1
RMSE =
n ∑ (yi − ŷi )2 (4)
i =1
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Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE): MAPE represents the prediction error as a
percentage, offering an intuitive perspective on forecasting accuracy, which is particularly
useful for comparing errors across datasets with different scales.
n
1 yi − ŷi
MAPE =
n ∑ yi
× 100 (5)
i =1
R-Squared (R²): R-Squared measures how closely predicted values align with actual
values, assessing the model’s ability to explain variance in stock prices [52].
Table 1. Model performances on the HDFC Stock Data in terms of the evaluation metrics.
The prediction for the models specifically for the HDFC Stock is shown in Figure 2 below.
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As for the models, the basic RNN performs worst in predicting the actual stock price
path with considerable distortions from the real trends (Figure 2a). Although RNNs are
basic for sequential data analysis, they are often replaced by more effective models, such
as LSTM and GRU in cases when patterns are more comprehensive or when the analysis
involves a larger memory of dependencies. The LSTM model validates the potential
of approximating the variation in HDFC’s stock price accurately in all the directions
(Figure 2b).
Specifically, the general behavior of the CNN model is to stay close to the trendline
of the underlying stock price data though, at specific moments, it considerably differs
especially during highly volatile moments (Figure 2c). It is very good at capturing bigger
trends but not so great at capturing specific highs and lows.
The resulting GRU model makes for a decent performance which plots the general
trajectory of the stock prices as follows (Figure 2d). However, it also has a weakness; it does
not capture the abrupt changes in the market such as the CNN’s ability to demonstrate a
steep rise and a steep fall. GRUs perform adequately for slight deviations and are highly
reliable but fail to capture the overall extrema concerning price fluctuations.
As seen in the graphs above, the Attention LSTM model is highly accurate in predicting
the trends and fluctuations in HDFC stock prices (Figure 2e). It also predicts actual results
well, especially in areas where the stock has made sharp movements.
fit to the data. The LSTM and CNN models showed better predictive performance, with
the LSTM model achieving an MAE of 0.286867 and an R-Square of −0.226954. The CNN
model performed similarly, with an MSE of 0.119834. The Attention LSTM model had
the best performance for TCS, with an MAE of 0.275316 and an R-Square of −0.051711,
indicating an improvement over the other models.
Table 2. Model performances on the TCS stock data in terms of the evaluation metrics.
The prediction for the models specifically for the TCS stock is shown in Figure 3 below.
As seen from the first graph of the RNN model (Figure 3a), there is quite a major
problem with fitting the low and high intensities in predicting the TCS stock prices as they
prominently under and overfit. This behavior shows another problem in the RNN, it does
not work well with patterns in stock data. Because of their structure, although they are
considered a staple for sequential data processing, the problems associated with them, for
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instance, long dependency sequences and vanishing gradients, impact the performance of
the RNNs in dynamic settings like the stock market where precise data are required.
The second graph shows the impact of the LSTM model (Figure 3b) in forecasting the
movements of TCS stock price movements better than RNN. Since the LSTM can retain
information over long periods, owing to its complex gating mechanism, the volatility of
the stock prices is effectively managed by the model. It quickly adapts to sharp density
fluctuations of the price level and provides a closer match to the cyclic patterns inherent in
the stock exchange.
The third graph depicts that the CNN (Figure 3c) has a fairly good performance in
mimicking the overall trend of TCS stock prices but lacks in capturing both the high and low
fluctuations of the prices. CNNs are employed to recognize spatial patterns over the sliding
time windows within time series analysis; these are well-known for that purpose. These
results imply that while moderate and calm patterns are captured correctly by this model,
it does not compare as well with the sudden and sharp patterns that are characteristic of
financial markets.
The fourth graph shows the GRU model (Figure 3d) as it has a similar performance to
the LSTM but is more sensitive to price changes. Like LSTMs, GRUs have a great capability
the handle temporal dependencies, but they have a simpler structure. This attribute makes
the GRU most effective for tick data such as stock prices, as they require the model to
pay attention to relevant information especially when it is new, without the increased
computational requirement of other advanced gating mechanisms.
Interestingly, the Attention LSTM model (Figure 3e) for the investment of the stocks
does not reveal the best alignment with actual stock prices. It fails to capture the minute
details of the change in the data of TCS, along with the broader trends. The addition of
an attention mechanism, which should make the model pay more attention to specific
segments of the input data, does not seem to account for the increase in the model’s accuracy
in this case.
Table 3. Model performances on the ICICI stock data in terms of the evaluation metrics.
Figure 4 shows the prediction of the models for the last 10 samples of the ICICI
stock data.
The first graph (Figure 4a) shows the forecasted values with the help of the RNN for
incremental stock prices of ICICI. While it indicates some similarity to actual equity flows,
it also presents important discrepancies including the inability to show more fluctuation.
As a basic recurrent neural network, the given architecture fails to deal with the intrica-
cies and sharp fluctuations that are characteristic of the stock data, which highlights the
inherent weakness of the approach caused by the cardinality of long sequences with the
corresponding problems, such as vanishing gradients.
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As Figure 4b shows, the CNN model is also different from the real ICICI stock prices;
it mimics the general trends, though it may not capture the peaks and troughs of the model
accurately. CNNs, which are remarkable in finding spatial patterns in diverse fields, use
their pattern recognition feature over moving windows in time series. This caused the
CNN to pick up more general trends, although its performance drops when faced with fast,
highly unpredictable oscillations suitable to financial contexts.
The third graph (Figure 4c) below reveals the GRU’s forecast whereby it displays a
better fit of the real stock prices compared to the RNN. Using GRU, the complex form
of LSTM is reduced; the temporal dependencies can still not be ignored as in the case of
applied financial time series data. Its performance here suggests that the network can easily
update information relevant to the market, hence providing a good base for efficient and
effective responses to the market.
The fourth graph (Figure 4d) depicting the Attention LSTM offers an indecisive result.
Although it tries to mimic the general course of the stock value, one can clearly see that it
fails to be precise toward the last data points, producing jagged values that are too high
when approaching an accumulation peak or too low when approaching a trough.
Table 4. Model performances on the Reliance stock data in terms of the evaluation metrics.
Figure 5 below depicts the performances of the implemented models on the Reliance stock.
Based on the pattern of the graph herein showing the performance of the RNN
(Figure 5a), it is seen that the model correlates well with the stock prices of Reliance but
also shows inconsistencies and underscores the failure of the RNN to depict other moun-
tains and valleys and to undertake a more accurate workout of the dramatic movements
of the Reliance stock prices. Such behavior is inherent to basic RNNs; they are capable of
processing sequential data but suffer from problems of long memory dependencies, or van-
ishing gradients. These drawbacks can significantly reduce their capacity to appropriately
simulate the high level of variation in stock market data.
The performance graph of the CNN (Figure 5c) revealed it as moderately capable of
tracing fluctuations in Reliance’s stock prices. It gives the overall trend with reasonable
efficiency but fails to provide precise estimates for the larger oscillations. CNNs are well-
recognized spatial pattern discriminative models and are used here in a similar fashion to
identify patterns over sliding time windows to detect trends. This performance implies
that although CNNs can work for broader movements, their efficiency is reduced when it
comes to faster less predictable market movements, which are vital in the volatile world of
stock trading.
It can be noticed that the graph of the GRU model resembles real stock prices more
than the RNN and CNN models, specifically in capturing both the overall movement of the
prices and other fluctuations (Figure 5d). Compared to LSTMs, GRUs make some changes
in the architecture but still hold a strong ability to handle temporal dependencies. This
attribute makes them especially useful for financial datasets in which a timely and efficient
ability to respond to new information is a valuable asset. It is perceptible from the graph
that GRUs are capable of capturing the quantitative volatility of stock prices and are thus
promising in representing predictive tasks in finance.
Lastly, the LSTM model graph shows efficiency, synchronizing with the actual Reliance
stock price movements (Figure 5b). It tracks both contraction and expansionary movements
in the markets well and displays high sensitivity to market fluctuations. When enhanced
for temporal sequence learning, LSTMs are good alternatives to RNNs because they have
accomplished the challenge of learning long-term dependencies with their elaborate gating
mechanisms. This capability enables them to perform well when used in places like the
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prediction of stock prices where information on trends can significantly improve upon
the prediction.
4.5. Nifty 50
The performance of models for Nifty 50 stock is summarized in Table 5. Both RNN and
LSTM models showed poor predictive accuracy, with negative R-Square values. The CNN
and GRU models outperformed the others, with CNN achieving an MAE of 0.232070 and
an R-Square of −0.049331. However, the Attention LSTM model performed the worst, with
an R-Square of −1.937318, indicating poor predictive capability for Nifty 50 stock.
Table 5. Model performances on the Nifty50 Index in terms of the evaluation metrics.
The performance of the models for the Nifty50 index data is depicted in Figure 6.
The above-indicated RNN graph also establishes the model’s general performance in
following the changes in the Nifty50 Index but has weak performances during fluctuations
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(Figure 6a). The forecasts are sometimes too high or too low in relation to concrete changes,
and usually do not capture important highs and lows. They also exposed the basic problems
of RNNs like long-term dependencies and vanishing gradients that hamper its fitness for
use in markets that require precise timely predictions.
It is evidently clear from the graph of the CNN model that the overall trends of the
Nifty50 Index can be tracked with modest accuracy (Figure 6c). Even though it describes
the overall trend, it fails to predict small changes, especially the sharp changes in the market.
CNNs are particularly good at identifying spatial patterns, and when used in time series,
they apply pattern detection across the sliding windows. From this transition method, it
emerged that although CNNs are proficient in identifying trends, they are lacking in agility
in turning market swifts around.
The graph for the GRU model is more consistent with real market data than the RNN
and CNN and corresponds to most of the change in the index (Figure 6d). GRUs make
LSTM structures less complicated and preserve the force of temporal dependency control,
which makes them perfect for application to numerical financial information since timely
changes to new data are essential. What this analysis shows about the GRU’s performance
is that it is valuable in tracking the complex patterns of stock index prices accurately.
Among the proposed LSTM models, the LSTM model graph demonstrates the highest
performance of tracking the actual movement of the Nifty50 Index (Figure 6b). It correctly
aligns with the markets and changes to address their needs appropriately which proves it
has better ways of handling long-term dependencies. This characteristic is particularly rele-
vant in stock market conditions where information patterns in the past are often extremely
powerful for shaping future trends and hence the LSTM is a most promising tool in the
field of financial prediction.
The Attention LSTM’s prediction graph of the Nifty 50 Index offers a clear insight
into how this more complex model goes about forecasting the trends of the stock market
(Figure 6e). Comparing the predictions with the last 50 values of the Nifty50 Index as
depicted in the figure, it can easily be seen that apart from a few fluctuations, the Attention
LSTM commonly predicts the overall directionality of the index with weak accuracy.
The model showed some disparities especially when forecasting the stock’s future trend.
5. Conclusions
This study conducted a comprehensive comparative analysis of five deep learning
models—Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convo-
lutional Neural Network (CNN), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Attention LSTM—for
predicting the stock prices of five major Indian companies: HDFC, TCS, ICICI, Reliance,
and the Nifty 50 group of stocks. The regression metrics employed for model evaluation
included MAE, MSE, RMSE, and R². The outcomes indicated that model performance var-
ied based on the individual stock being analyzed. CNN and GRU architectures effectively
outperformed RNN and LSTM models, particularly for stable stocks like HDFC and Nifty
50, with the CNN model achieving lower error rates and more robust R² values in most
implementations. The Attention LSTM model proved to be significantly more efficient than
its counterparts for volatile stocks, including Reliance.
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Despite the overall effectiveness of the models, the study revealed notable challenges.
The consistently poor performance of the RNN model highlighted its inability to cap-
ture long-term dependencies, while the LSTM model showed improvements in specific
instances. The Attention LSTM model, although effective for some stocks, performed
poorly with Nifty 50, suggesting that its complexity may not be advantageous for all stock
types. This emphasizes the need for careful consideration of model selection based on the
characteristics of the stock being forecasted.
Although the MAE values across models exceeded 0.2, indicating a significant mean
forecasting error, these findings underscore the complexities inherent to stock price predic-
tions. Future work should explore methods to improve accuracy, including incorporating
external data and refining model hyperparameters. Additionally, addressing potential
biases in model results is crucial; future studies should investigate the impact of biases such
as data selection bias and model complexity bias on prediction accuracy and explore ways
to mitigate these effects. Overall, this study contributes valuable insights to the expanding
research on applying deep learning in forecasting financial time series, offering critical
implications for both academic research and financial practitioners.
Future Work
Several pathways for future research and development arise from this study. First,
there is a strong opportunity to enhance model performance by integrating additional
external data, such as macroeconomic indicators, market news, and social media sentiment
analysis. These external attributes could provide crucial context to stock price movements
and improve models’ ability to detect market dynamics affecting prices.
Second, investigating advanced hyperparameter optimization techniques, including
Bayesian optimization and grid search, could further increase model accuracy. While stan-
dard hyperparameters were applied in this study, fine-tuning them specifically for each
stock may yield better results, especially for more volatile stocks.
Additionally, exploring advanced deep learning models, particularly Transformer
networks, warrants consideration for stock price prediction. The capability of transformer
architectures to utilize self-attention mechanisms and manage extensive data sequences
could enable the better identification of long-term dependencies and trends in stock prices
compared to traditional RNN models. Furthermore, hybrid models that integrate deep
learning with traditional financial analysis methods may enhance both interpretability and
robustness. For example, combining deep learning with econometric models could bridge
the gap between opaque predictions and established financial theories, providing more
actionable insights for investors and traders.
Moreover, comparing our findings from the Indian market with studies conducted in
other capital markets will help identify whether our results align with or differ significantly
from those in other contexts. Future studies could delve deeper into these comparisons,
exploring factors that may influence discrepancies or similarities across different mar-
kets. By focusing on these aspects, we aim to enhance the robustness and applicability
of our models in stock price forecasting and contribute to a broader understanding of
market behavior.
Finally, extending this research to include a broader array of stocks and longer forecast-
ing horizons would provide a more comprehensive understanding of model performance
across different sectors and time periods. Additional investigation into the real-time appli-
cation of these models for stock price predictions and their potential integration with auto-
mated trading systems is essential for assessing their practical utility in financial markets.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, M.B. and T.K.; methodology, M.B., T.K. and K.R.; software,
T.K. and K.R.; validation, M.B., T.K. and K.R.; formal analysis, M.B. and T.K.; investigation, M.B.,
T.K. and K.R.; resources, M.B. and K.R.; data curation, M.B., T.K. and K.R.; writing—original draft
preparation, M.B. and T.K.; writing—review and editing, M.B., T.K., K.R. and A.M.R.; visualization,
M.B., T.K. and K.R.; supervision, A.M.R.; project administration, M.B. and T.K.; funding acquisition,
A.M.R. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
FinTech 2024, 3 566
Abbreviations
The following abbreviations are used in this manuscript:
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