Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY

PROBABILITY

CHAPTER 5
5. ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY
Introduction
 Probability theory is the foundation upon which the logic of
inference is built.
 It helps us to cope up with uncertainty.
 In general, probability is the chance of an outcome of an
experiment. It is the measure of how likely an outcome is to
occur.
Definitions of some probability terms
1. Experiment: Any process of observation or measurement or any process
which generates well defined outcome.
2. Probability Experiment: It is an experiment that can be repeated any
number of times under similar conditions and it is possible to
enumerate the total number of outcomes with out predicting an
individual out come. It is also called random experiment.
Example: If a fair die is rolled once it is possible to list all the possible
outcomes i.e.1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 but it is not possible to predict which
outcome will occur.
3. Outcome :The result of a single trial of a random experiment
4. Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment
5. Event: It is a subset of sample space. It is a statement about one or
more outcomes of a random experiment .They are denoted by capital
letters.
Example: Considering the above experiment let A be the event of odd
numbers, B be the event of even numbers, and C be the event of number
8.
 A  1,3 ,5 
B  2 ,4 ,6 
C    or empty space or impossible event
Remark:
If S (sample space) has n members then there are exactly 2n subsets or
events.
6. Equally Likely Events: Events which have the same chance of occurring.
7. Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A means non-
' c
occurrence of A and is denoted by A , or A , or A contains those points of
the sample space which don’t belong to A.

Page 1 of 1
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

8. Elementary Event: an event having only a single element or sample

point.
9. Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events which cannot happen at the
same time.
10. Independent Events: Two events are independent if the occurrence
of one does not affect the probability of the other occurring.
11. Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event
affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event in a way the
probability is changed.

Example: .What is the sample space for the following experiment

a) Toss a die one time.

b) Toss a coin two times.
c) A light bulb is manufactured. It is tested for its life length by
time.
Solution
a) S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
b) S={(HH),(HT),(TH),(TT)}
c) S={t /t≥0}
 Sample space can be

 Countable ( finite or infinite)

 Uncountable.
Counting Rules
In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know
 The number of elements of an event
 The number of elements of the sample space.
That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to know what is
possible.
 In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use
several rules of counting.
- The addition rule
- The multiplication rule
- Permutation rule
- Combination rule

 To list the outcomes of the sequence of events, a useful device

called tree diagram is used.

Page 2 of 2
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

Example: A student goes to the nearest snack to have a breakfast. He

can take tea, coffee, or milk with bread, cake and sandwich. How many
possibilities does he have?

Solutions:

Tea
Bread
Cake
Sandwich

Coeffee
Bread
Cake
Sandwitch

Milk

Bread
Cake
Sandwich

 There are nine possibilities.

The Multiplication Rule:

If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be made in n1 ways,

the second can be made in n2 ways…, the kth can be made in nk ways,
then the whole choice can be made in ( n1 * n 2 * ........ * n k ) ways .
Example: The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in 4 digit
identification card. How many different cards are possible if
a) Repetitions are permitted.
b) Repetitions are not permitted.
Solutions
a)
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th

Page 3 of 3
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

digit
5 5 5 5
There are four steps
1. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
2. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
3. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
4. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 5 ways.

 5 * 5 * 5 * 5  625 different cards are possible .

b)

1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th

digit
5 4 3 2

There are four steps

5. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
6. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 4 ways.
7. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 3 ways.
8. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 2 ways.

 5 * 4 * 3 * 2  120 different cards are possible .

Permutation

An arrangement of n objects in a specified order is called

permutation of the objects.
Permutation Rules:
1. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken all
together is n!
Where n!  n * ( n  1 ) * ( n  2 ) * ..... * 3 * 2 * 1
2. The arrangement of n objects in a specified order using r
objects at a time is called the permutation of n objects taken r
objects at a time. It is written as n P r and the formula is
n!
Pr 
 r )!
n
(n

Page 4 of 4
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

3. The number of permutations of n objects in which k1 are alike

k2 are alike ---- etc is

n!
n
Pr 
k1 !* k 2 * ... * k n
Example:
1. Suppose we have a letters A,B, C, D
a) How many permutations are there taking all the four?
b) How many permutations are there two letters at a time?
2. How many different permutations can be made from the
letters in the word “CORRECTION”?
Solutions:
1.
a)
Here n  4, there are four disnict object
 There are 4 !  24 permutatio ns .

b)
Here n  4, r 2
4! 24
 There are P2    12 permutatio ns .
 2 )!
4
(4 2
2.

Here n  10
Of which 2 are C , 2 are O , 2 are R , 1 E , 1T , 1 I , 1 N
 K 1  2, k2  2, k3  2, k4  k5  k6  k7  1
rd
U sin g the 3 rule of permutatio n , there are
10 !
 453600 permutatio ns .
2 !* 2 !* 2 !* 1!* 1!* 1!* 1!

Combination
A selection of objects with out regard to order is called combination.
Example: Given the letters A, B, C, and D list the permutation and
combination for selecting two letters.

Page 5 of 5
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

Solutions:
Permutation Combination

AB BA CA DA AB BC
AC BC CB DB AC BD
AD BD CD DC AD DC
Note that in permutation AB is different from BA. But in combination
AB is the same as BA.
Combination Rule

The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is

n
denoted by n C r or   and is given by the formula:
r 

n n!
  
 r  ( n  r )!* r !
Examples:
1. In how many ways a committee of 5 people be chosen out of 9
people?
Solutions:

n 9 , r 5
n n! 9!
     126 ways
 r  ( n  r )!* r ! 4!* 5!
2. Among 15 clocks there are two defectives .In how many ways can
an inspector chose three of the clocks for inspection so that:
a) There is no restriction.
b) None of the defective clock is included.
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
d) Two of the defective clock is included.

Solutions:

Page 6 of 6
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

n  15 of which 2 are defective and 13 are non  defective .

r 3

a) If there is no restriction select three clocks from 15 clocks

and this can be done in :
n  15 , r 3
n n! 15 !
     455 ways
 
r ( n  r )!* r ! 12 !* 3!

b) None of the defective clocks is included.

This is equivalent to zero defective and three non defective,
which can be done in:

 2  13 
  *    286 ways .
0   3 
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
This is equivalent to one defective and two non defective,
which can be done in:

 2  13 
  *    156 ways .
1   2 
d) Two of the defective clock is included.
This is equivalent to two defective and one non defective,
which can be done in:

 2  * 13   13 ways .
2   1 

Approaches to measuring Probability

There are four different conceptual approaches to the study of
probability theory. These are:
 The classical approach.
 The frequentist approach.
 The axiomatic approach.
 The subjective approach.
The classical approach

Page 7 of 7
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

This approach is used when:

- All outcomes are equally likely.
- Total number of outcome is finite, say N.
Definition: If a random experiment with N equally likely outcomes is
conducted and out of these NA outcomes are favorable to the event
A, then the probability that event A occur denoted P ( A ) is defined
as:
N No . of outcomes favourable to A n( A )
P (A)  A
 
N Total number of outcomes n(S )

Examples:
1. A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting
a) Number 4?
b) An odd number?
c) An even number?
d) Number 8?
Solutions:
First identify the sample space, say S
S 1, 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 
 N  n(S )  6
a) Let A be the event of number 4
A 4 
 N A  n( A )  1
n( A )
P (A)  1 6
n(S )
b) Let A be the event of odd numbers
A 1,3 ,5 
 N A  n( A )  3
n( A )
P (A)  3 6  0 .5
n(S )
c) Let A be the event of even numbers

Page 8 of 8
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

 2 ,4 ,6 
A
 N A  n( A )  3
n( A )
P (A)  3 6  0 .5
n(S )
d) Let A be the event of number 8
A  Ø
 N A
 n( A )  0

n( A )
P (A)   0 6  0
n(S )

2. A box of 80 candles consists of 30 defective and 50 non

defective candles. If 10 of this candles are selected at
random, what is the probability
a) All will be defective.
b) 6 will be non defective
c) All will be non defective
Solutions:
 80 
Total selection     N  n ( S )
 10 
a) Let A be the event that all will be defective.

 30   50 
Total way in which    *    N A  n ( A )
A occur
 10   0 
 30   50 
  *  
      0 .00001825
n( A ) 10 0
 P (A) 
n(S )  80 
 
 10 
b) Let A be the event that 6 will be non defective.

Page 9 of 9
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

 30   50 
Total way in which A occur    *    N A
 n( A )
 4  6 
 30
  50 

 *  

  6   0 .265
n( A ) 4
 P (A) 
n(S )  80 
 
 10 
c) Let A be the event that all will be non defective.

 30   50 
Total way in which A occur    *    N A
 n( A )
 0   10 
 30   50 
  *  
      0 .00624
n( A ) 0 10
 P (A) 
n(S )  80 
 
 10 
Exercises:
1. What is the probability that a waitress will refuse to serve
alcoholic beverages to only three minors if she randomly checks
the I.D’s of five students from among ten students of which
four are not of legal age?
2. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5
novels, 3 books of poems, and a dictionary, what is the
probability that
a) The dictionary is selected?
b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?
Short coming of the classical approach:
This approach is not applicable when:
- The total number of outcomes is infinite.
- Outcomes are not equally likely.
The Frequentist Approach
This is based on the relative frequencies of outcomes belonging to an
event.
Definition: The probability of an event A is the proportion of outcomes
favorable to A in the long run when the experiment is repeated under
same condition.
N
P (A)  lim A

N  N

Page 10 of 10
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

Example: If records show that 60 out of 100,000 bulbs produced are

defective. What is the probability of a newly produced bulb to be
defective?
Solution:
Let A be the event that the newly produced bulb is defective.
N 60
P (A)  lim A
  0 .0006
N  N 100 ,000
Axiomatic Approach:
Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space associated with
E. With each event A a real number called the probability of A satisfies
the following properties called axioms of probability or postulates of
probability.
1. P ( A )  0
2. P ( S )  1, S is the sure event .
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, the probability that one
or the other occur equals the sum of the two probabilities. i. e.
P ( A  B )  P ( A )  P (B )
4. P ( A )  1  P ( A )
'

5. 0  P ( A )  1
6. P(ø) =0, ø is the impossible event.
Remark: Venn-diagrams can be used to solve probability problems.

AUB AnB A

In general p ( A  B )  p ( A )  p ( B )  p ( A  B )
Conditional probability and Independency
Conditional Events: If the occurrence of one event has an effect on
the next occurrence of the other event then the two events are

Page 11 of 11
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

conditional or dependant events.

Example: Suppose we have two red and three white balls in a bag
1. Draw a ball with replacement
2
Let A= the event that the first draw is red p ( A ) 
5
2
B= the event that the second draw is red  p ( B ) 
5
A and B are independent.
2. Draw a ball with out replacement
2
Let A= the event that the first draw is red p ( A ) 
5
B= the event that the second draw is red  p ( B )  ?
This is conditional.
Let B= the event that the second draw is red given that the first
draw is red  p ( B )  1 4
Conditional probability of an event
The conditional probability of an event A given that B has already
occurred, denoted p ( A B ) is
p(A B)
p(A B ) = , p (B ) 0
p (B )
Remark: (1) p ( A B )  1  p ( A B )
'

(2) p ( B A )  1  p ( B A )
'

(AUB)`=A`ᴖ B` ….. De Morgan’s first rule

(A ᴖB)`=A`UB` ….. De Morgan’s second rule
Examples
1. For a student enrolling at freshman at certain university the
probability is 0.25 that he/she will get scholarship and 0.75
that he/she will graduate. If the probability is 0.2 that he/she
will get scholarship and will also graduate. What is the
probability that a student who get a scholarship graduate?
Solution: Let A= the event that a student will get a scholarship
B= the event that a student will graduate

Page 12 of 12
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

given p(A)  0 .25 , p (B )  0 .75 , pA  B   0 .20

Re quired pB A 
pA B 0 .20
pB A     0 .80
pA 0 .25
2. If the probability that a research project will be well planned
is 0.60 and the probability that it will be well planned and well
executed is 0.54, what is the probability that it will be well
executed given that it is well planned?
Solution; Let A= the event that a research project will be well
Planned
B= the event that a research project will be well
Executed
given p(A)  0 .60 , pA  B   0 .54
Re quired pB A 
pA B 0 .54
pB A     0 .90
pA 0 .60
3. A lot consists of 20 defective and 80 non-defective items from
which two items are chosen without replacement. Events A & B
are defined as A = the first item chosen is defective, B =
the second item chosen is defective
a. What is the probability that both items are defective?
b. What is the probability that the second item is defective?
Solution; Exercise
Note; for any two events A and B the following relation holds.
p  B   p  B A . p  A   p  B A . p  A 
' '

Probability of Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent if and only if
pA B p  A . p  B 
Here p  A B   p  A , P B A   pB 
Example; A box contains four black and six white balls. What is the
probability of getting two black balls in drawing one after the other
under the following conditions?
a. The first ball drawn is not replaced
b. The first ball drawn is replaced

Page 13 of 13
Lecture notes on Introduction to Statistics (Stat 1070) Chapter 5: ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY

Solution; Let A= first drawn ball is black

B= second drawn is black
Required p  A  B 
a. p  A  B   p  B A . p  A    4 10   3 9   2 15
b. p  A  B   p  A . p  B    4 10   4 10   4 25

Page 14 of 14