1
UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI.
A Comparative Analysis of Preventive Diplomacy and Third-Party Intervention in Conflict
Management.
2
I. Introduction
The 21st century has witnessed a profound transformation, such as conflict, characterized by a shift from
traditional inter-state wars to more complex intrastate conflicts, transnational terrorism, and the
emergence of cyber warfare. Many factors, including political instability, social fragmentation,
economic disparities, and the proliferation of extremist ideologies, often fuel these evolving forms of
conflict. The increasing interconnectedness of global security necessitates effective conflict management
strategies that can address these multifaceted challenges.
Conflict can be defined as a serious disagreement or argument, often arising from differing interests,
values, or beliefs.1 It encompasses various dimensions, including political, social, and economic aspects,
each contributing to the overall dynamics of a conflict situation. In this context, preventive diplomacy
and third-party intervention emerge as crucial tools in the conflict management toolbox. Preventive
diplomacy focuses on proactive measures to avert the escalation of conflicts, while third-party
intervention involves external actors facilitating conflict resolution processes. This assignment aims to
comprehensively analyse these two approaches, focusing on their specific forms and their application in
diverse conflict scenarios.
II. Preventive Diplomacy: Proactive Measures for Conflict Prevention
Definition
Preventive diplomacy can be defined as a set of proactive and anticipatory measures aimed at preventing
the outbreak, escalation, or recurrence of violent conflict. 2 Unlike reactive measures implemented after a
conflict has erupted, preventive diplomacy seeks to address the underlying causes of conflict before they
manifest into violence. This approach emphasizes the importance of early intervention, dialogue, and
negotiation to create a conducive environment for peace.
1
Sambanis, Nicholas. "What is civil war? Conceptual and empirical complexities of an operational definition." Journal of conflict resolution 48, no. 6
(2004): 814-858.
2
Ibid
3
Forms
Early Warning
Early warning systems are essential components of preventive diplomacy, providing timely information
about potential conflict situations. These systems utilize both quantitative and qualitative indicators to
assess the risk of conflict. Quantitative indicators may include economic data, demographic trends, and
social indicators, while qualitative indicators encompass political discourse, social tensions, and public
sentiment. Civil society organizations and local communities play a vital role in providing early warning
information, as they often possess firsthand knowledge of the dynamics at play.
However, the effectiveness of early warning systems is often hampered by challenges such as
information overload and the need for practical analysis and dissemination of data. The International
Crisis Group (ICG) serves as a prominent example of an organization that provides early warning
analysis on potential conflict situations, utilizing a combination of field reports, expert assessments, and
data analysis to inform policymakers and stakeholders.3
Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs)
Confidence-building measures (CBMs) are critical tools in preventive diplomacy to reduce tensions and
foster trust between conflicting parties. CBMs can be categorized into military, political, economic, and
social measures.
Military CBMs may include arms control agreements, transparency measures (such as
notifications of military exercises), and the establishment of hotlines to facilitate communication
during crises.
Political CBMs can involve joint commissions, human rights dialogues, and cross-border
cooperation initiatives.
Economic CBMs may encompass trade agreements, joint development projects, and resource-
sharing arrangements.
3
Bercovitch, J., & Jackson, R. (2018). Conflict resolution in the twenty-first century: Principles, methods, and approaches. University of Michigan
Press.
4
Social CBMs can include cultural exchanges, educational programs, and community-building
initiatives.
A notable example of CBMs in action is the efforts to reduce tensions between India and Pakistan,
particularly in the context of nuclear non-proliferation and cross-border communication. Initiatives such
as the Lahore Declaration in 1999 aimed to promote dialogue and cooperation, highlighting the potential
of CBMs to mitigate conflict 4
Preventive Deployment
Preventive deployment refers to peacekeeping forces or observers in a conflict-prone area to deter
violence and create a buffer between conflicting parties. The legal basis for preventive deployment is
grounded in Chapter VI of the UN Charter, which emphasizes the pacific settlement of disputes.
One of the primary challenges of preventive deployment is obtaining consent from the parties involved
and ensuring the impartiality and neutrality of peacekeeping operations. Different peacekeeping
missions exist, including observer missions, traditional peacekeeping forces, and multidimensional
operations that address various issues beyond military concerns.
A successful example of preventive deployment is the United Nations Preventive Deployment Force
(UNPREDEP) in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, which operated from 1995 to 1999.
UNPREDEP was tasked with monitoring the border and preventing the spillover of conflict from
neighbouring regions, effectively contributing to stability in the area 5
Good Offices
The concept of "good offices" refers to the role of a third party in facilitating dialogue and negotiation
between conflicting parties. This can involve various roles, including facilitator, mediator, and
messenger. The effectiveness of good offices is often contingent upon the trust and credibility of the
third party involved.
4
Lund, Michael S. "Preventing violent conflicts: A strategy for preventive diplomacy." (No Title) (1996).Montville, J. V. (2017). The psychoanalytic
basis of ethnic conflict. Routledge.
5
Bellamy, Alex J., Paul D. Williams, and Stuart Griffin. Understanding peacekeeping. Polity, 2010.
5
A prominent example of good offices in action is the role of the Sultan of Oman in facilitating back-
channel negotiations between the United States and Iran, which ultimately led to the Iran nuclear deal
(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2015. The Sultan's neutral position and established
relationships with both parties allowed him to serve as a credible intermediary, demonstrating how good
offices can create pathways for dialogue and resolution in complex geopolitical conflicts 6
III. Third-Party Intervention: Facilitating Conflict Resolution
Definition
Third-party intervention involves external actors—such as states, international organizations, non-
governmental organizations (NGOs), or individuals—in a conflict to facilitate resolution. This
intervention can take various forms, including mediation, conciliation, arbitration, and adjudication,
each with distinct processes and objectives.
Forms
Mediation
Mediation is a widely used form of third-party intervention that involves a neutral third party assisting
conflicting parties in reaching a mutually acceptable agreement. Different mediation styles exist,
including facilitative, directive, and transformative approaches.
Facilitative mediation focuses on helping parties communicate and explore options without
imposing solutions.
Directive mediation involves the mediator taking a more active role in suggesting solutions or
frameworks for resolution.
Transformative mediation aims to change the relationship dynamics between the parties,
fostering understanding and empathy.
The mediation process typically consists of several stages: pre-mediation (where the mediator assesses
the situation and builds rapport), negotiation (where discussions occur), and implementation (where
6
Dervin, Fred. "Peter T. Coleman, Professor of Psychology and Education, Director of the Morton Deutsch International Center for Cooperation and
Conflict Resolution at Columbia University, USA."
6
agreements are put into action). The mediator's impartiality, creativity, and cultural sensitivity are
crucial for success.
A notable example of mediation is the African Union's (AU) involvement in the Darfur conflict. The AU
facilitated peace talks between the Sudanese government and various rebel groups, leading to the Darfur
Peace Agreement 2006. Although the agreement faced challenges in implementation, the AU's
mediation efforts highlighted the importance of regional organizations in conflict resolution 7
Conciliation
Conciliation differs from mediation because it emphasizes fact-finding and recommending solutions
rather than facilitating direct negotiations between parties. Conciliation processes often involve
commissions of inquiry or truth commissions that investigate the underlying issues of a conflict and
propose recommendations for resolution.
A prominent example of conciliation is the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) in South
Africa, established to address the legacy of apartheid. The TRC conducted hearings, gathered
testimonies, and made recommendations for reparations and reconciliation, playing a crucial role in the
country's transition to democracy8
Arbitration
Arbitration is a more formalized process in which a neutral third party (the arbitrator) makes binding
decisions on a dispute based on the evidence and arguments presented by the parties. The legal
framework for arbitration is often established through international treaties and conventions, such as the
United Nations Convention on International Settlement Agreements Resulting from Mediation
(Singapore Convention).
Arbitration has its advantages, including the ability to provide a definitive resolution and the potential
for faster outcomes compared to litigation. However, it also has disadvantages, such as the potential for
limited recourse if one party does not comply with the arbitrator's decision.
7
Ibid
8
Montville, J. V. (2017). The psychoanalytic basis of ethnic conflict. Routledge.
7
An example of arbitration in action is the role of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in resolving
international disputes, such as the case between the Philippines and China regarding territorial claims in
the South China Sea. The PCA's ruling in 2016 favoured the Philippines, emphasizing the importance of
international law in resolving disputes 9
Adjudication
Adjudication involves resolving disputes through formal legal processes, typically in international courts
or tribunals. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations
and plays a significant role in adjudicating disputes between states based on international law.
While adjudication can provide authoritative resolutions, it is often limited by the requirement of state
consent to jurisdiction. This limitation can hinder the effectiveness of adjudication in inevitable
conflicts.
A notable adjudication case is the ICJ's ruling on the maritime dispute between Nicaragua and
Colombia, where the court delineated maritime boundaries and affirmed Nicaragua's rights to certain
areas. This ruling underscored the role of international law in resolving territorial disputes 10
IV. Relationship Between Preventive Diplomacy and Third-Party Intervention
Preventive diplomacy and third-party intervention are not mutually exclusive; they are complementary
and often overlap in practice. Preventive diplomacy can create a conducive environment for third-party
intervention by addressing underlying tensions and fostering dialogue before conflicts escalate. For
instance, early warning systems and confidence-building measures can help identify potential
flashpoints and facilitate timely intervention by third parties.
Conversely, there are situations where preventive diplomacy may fail, necessitating more robust third-
party intervention. In cases where dialogue and negotiation efforts do not yield results, external actors
may need to step in with mediation, conciliation, or even peacekeeping forces to stabilize the situation.
Additionally, certain forms of preventive diplomacy, such as good offices and fact-finding missions, can
be considered early forms of third-party intervention, as they involve external actors facilitating
communication and understanding between conflicting parties.
9
Ibid
10
Bellamy, Alex J., Paul D. Williams, and Stuart Griffin. Understanding peacekeeping. Polity, 2010.
8
For example, in the lead-up to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the initial preventive diplomacy efforts,
including back-channel communications facilitated by the Sultan of Oman, laid the groundwork for
more formal negotiations involving multiple states. This illustrates how preventive diplomacy can set
the stage for successful third-party intervention, ultimately leading to conflict resolution.
V. Analysis: Effectiveness, Challenges, and Future Directions
Effectiveness
The effectiveness of preventive diplomacy and third-party intervention is influenced by several factors,
including the timing of intervention, the commitment of the parties involved, the resources available, the
nature of the conflict, and the regional context.
1. Timing of Intervention: Early intervention is often critical in preventing conflicts from
escalating. For instance, the timely deployment of peacekeeping forces in the former Yugoslavia
helped stabilize the situation before it deteriorated. Conversely, delayed intervention can lead to
entrenched positions and increased violence, as seen in the Rwandan Genocide, where
international inaction allowed the conflict to escalate dramatically.
2. Commitment of the Parties: The willingness of conflicting parties to engage in dialogue and
compromise is essential for the success of preventive diplomacy and third-party intervention. In
the case of the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO),
initial goodwill and commitment led to significant progress, although subsequent failures to
maintain that commitment resulted in renewed violence.
3. Resources Available: The availability of financial, human, and logistical resources can
significantly impact the effectiveness of conflict management efforts. Organizations like the
United Nations often face resource constraints that limit their ability to respond effectively to
crises. For example, the UN's peacekeeping missions in South Sudan have been hampered by
insufficient funding and personnel, undermining their effectiveness in stabilizing the region.
4. Nature of the Conflict: The complexity of the conflict itself plays a crucial role in determining
the success of intervention efforts. Conflicts rooted in deep-seated historical grievances, such as
ethnic or religious tensions, may require more nuanced and sustained approaches than those
based on political or territorial disputes.
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5. Regional Context: The geopolitical landscape and regional dynamics can also influence the
effectiveness of conflict management strategies. Regional organizations, such as the African
Union or the Organization of American States, often better understand local contexts and can
play a vital role in mediation and peacekeeping efforts.
Challenges
Despite the potential benefits of preventive diplomacy and third-party intervention, several challenges
persist:
1. Lack of Political Will: Mobilizing international support for preventive action can be
challenging, mainly when national interests are at stake. The reluctance of powerful states to
intervene in conflicts where they have no direct interests can hinder timely responses.
2. Limited Resources: Financial and human resource constraints faced by international
organizations and other actors involved in conflict management can limit their effectiveness. For
instance, the UN often struggles to secure adequate funding for peacekeeping missions, leading
to understaffed and under-resourced operations.
3. Difficulty in Identifying and Addressing Root Causes: Conflicts are often complex and
multifaceted, making it challenging to identify and address their underlying causes. Issues such
as poverty, inequality, and historical grievances require long-term strategies that go beyond
immediate conflict-resolution efforts.
4. Potential for Unintended Consequences: Interventions can sometimes exacerbate tensions or
undermine local ownership of peace processes. For example, external military interventions may
increase local populations' resistance or create power vacuums that fuel further violence.
5. Coordination Challenges: The involvement of multiple actors in conflict management can lead
to coordination challenges, with different organizations pursuing divergent agendas. This lack of
coherence can undermine the overall effectiveness of interventions.
Future Directions
To enhance the effectiveness of preventive diplomacy and third-party intervention, several future
directions should be considered:
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1. Strengthening Early Warning Systems: Improved data collection, analysis, and information
sharing are essential for effective early warning systems. Greater integration of early warning
information into policy-making processes can facilitate timely interventions.
2. Investing in Conflict Prevention Mechanisms: Increased investment in preventive diplomacy
and other conflict prevention measures is crucial. This includes funding training programs,
capacity building, and establishing dedicated conflict prevention units within international
organizations.
3. Promoting Regional Cooperation: Regional organizations play a vital role in conflict
management, and stronger partnerships between regional and international actors can enhance
the effectiveness of interventions. Collaborative efforts can leverage local knowledge and
resources while fostering ownership of peace processes.
4. Addressing the Root Causes of Conflict: Long-term development strategies that address
poverty, inequality, and other underlying causes of conflict are essential for sustainable peace.
This requires a holistic approach integrating conflict resolution efforts with development
cooperation and humanitarian assistance.
5. Enhancing Mediation and Negotiation Capacities: Investing in training and capacity building
for mediators and negotiators can improve the quality of third-party interventions. This includes
developing skills in cultural sensitivity, negotiation tactics, and conflict analysis to equip
mediators better to handle complex situations effectively.
6. Improving Coordination and Collaboration: Establishing more precise mechanisms for
coordination and collaboration among different actors involved in conflict management is
essential. This could include creating joint task forces, regular communication channels, and
shared databases to ensure all stakeholders are aligned in their efforts and strategies.
7. Utilizing Technology for Conflict Management: Integrating technology in conflict
management can enhance early warning systems, facilitate communication, and improve data
analysis. For instance, social media monitoring and big data analytics can provide real-time
insights into emerging tensions and public sentiment, allowing for more proactive responses.
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8. Fostering Inclusivity in Peace Processes: Ensuring peace processes are inclusive and
representative of all stakeholders, including marginalized groups, women, and youth, can
enhance the legitimacy and sustainability of agreements. Inclusive dialogue can lead to more
comprehensive solutions that address affected populations' diverse needs and concerns.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the analysis of preventive diplomacy and third-party intervention reveals their critical
roles in the broader context of conflict management. Both approaches offer valuable tools for
addressing the complexities of modern conflicts, yet they also face significant challenges that must
be navigated to enhance their effectiveness.
With its proactive measures, preventive diplomacy can create a conducive environment for dialogue
and negotiation, while third-party intervention provides the necessary support to facilitate conflict
resolution when tensions escalate. The interplay between these approaches underscores the
importance of a comprehensive, integrated, and context-specific strategy that combines various
tools, including development cooperation, peacebuilding, and transitional justice.
As the nature of conflict continues to evolve, so must our strategies for managing it. Continuous
learning and adaptation in conflict management are essential to address emerging challenges and
leverage new opportunities for peace. By strengthening early warning systems, investing in conflict
prevention mechanisms, promoting regional cooperation, and enhancing mediation capacities, the
international community can better navigate the complexities of conflict and work towards
sustainable peace in an increasingly interconnected world.
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References
Bercovitch, J., & Jackson, R. (2018). Conflict resolution in the twenty-first century: Principles,
methods, and approaches. University of Michigan Press.
Bellamy, Alex J., Paul D. Williams, and Stuart Griffin. Understanding peacekeeping. Polity, 2010.
Dervin, Fred. "Peter T. Coleman, Professor of Psychology and Education, Director of the Morton
Deutsch International Center for Cooperation and Conflict Resolution at Columbia
University, USA."
Dodds, Klaus. "Peace by peaceful means: peace and conflict, development and civilization." (1997):
160-161.
Lund, Michael S. "Preventing violent conflicts: A strategy for preventive diplomacy." (No
Title) (1996).
Montville, J. V. (2017). The psychoanalytic basis of ethnic conflict. Routledge.
Sambanis, Nicholas. "What is civil war? Conceptual and empirical complexities of an operational
definition." Journal of conflict resolution 48, no. 6 (2004): 814-858.
