Kotak Daily 16 Jan 25

India Daily
January 16, 2025 NIFTY50 [Jan 15]: 23,213
Contents
Daily Alerts
Results
HDFC Life Insurance: Margins surprise
 Margins have likely bottomed out
 Business remains in mid-to-high teen trajectory
 Retain BUY and FV at Rs850
L&T Technology Services: Buoyant outlook
 In-line revenues; strong show on margins
 FY2025E organic revenue growth guidance moved to lower end of the band
 Strong deal wins after rangebound performance over a reasonably long period
 Marginal tweaks to estimates; maintain SELL with FV of Rs4,750
Economy Alerts
Economy: Goods trade deficit narrows back in December
 Exports picked up in December from last month
 Imports moderate in December
 FYTD25 gold imports data revised down
 Services trade surplus remains steady
 We retain FY2025E/26E CAD/GDP at 1.3%/1.5%; revise USD-INR estimate
Private Circulation Only.

This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933
RESULT
HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE) BUY

Insurance
CMP(₹): 594 Fair Value(₹): 850 Sector View: Attractive NIFTY-50: 23,213 January 15, 2025
Margins surprise Company data and valuation summary

HDFC Life reported weak VNB growth (up 9%) due to 12% APE growth; Stock data
margins surprised positively with low (30 bps) impact of surrender value
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 594/850/BUY
norms and pointers toward bottoming out. Benign competitive environment
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 761-511
augurs well for steady businesses such as HDFC Life, even as news flows on
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 1,279/14.8
regulatory changes affect stock performance. Retain BUY; FV of Rs850.
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 2,325/26.9
Margins have likely bottomed out
Shareholding pattern (%)
HDFC Life reported 174 bps qoq margin expansion, about 100 bps above our
estimate. The company had called out for pressure of about 100-130 bps in
2QFY25 due to a delay in repricing of products. While a lower share of non-par 5.4
5.7
2.3
(down 1,000 bps qoq) and 30 bps VNB impact of surrender value guidelines
10.6
were headwinds, product-level margins improved across segments, according 50.3
to management. Rider attachment in ULIPs has picked up; the company
25.6
reported a 12% sum assured growth in 3QFY25 (23% in 9MFY25). The overall
competitive intensity in the industry has likely reduced; in the earnings call,
management highlighted that downward revision in IRRs, better term pricing Promoters FPIs MFs BFIs Retail Others
Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
environment and revised payouts to distributors augur well for HDFC Life’s
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
margins. Higher volumes in 4Q will likely lead to better margins, in line with
Absolute (6) (17) (3)
seasonal trends. The impact of the surrender value guidelines was capped at
Rel. to Nifty 0 (9) (8)
about 30 bps, lower than the initial guidance of 100 bps and higher impact Rel. to MSCI India 2 (7) (11)
expected by the Street.
Forecasts/Valuations 2025E 2026E 2027E
Business remains in mid-to-high teen trajectory EPS (Rs) 8.5 9.8 11.3
We expect HDFC Life’s VNB trajectory to sustain ~17-18% (steady APE growth with EPS growth (%) 15.7 15.7 15.1
moderate margin expansion) in the medium term. The business mix will determine P/E (X) 70.3 60.7 52.8
margins-volume dynamics. While it has been maintaining a more balanced product P/B (X) 8.3 7.8 7.3
mix versus peers, ULIPs were up 500 bps in 9MFY25, whereas VNB margins were BVPS (Rs) 72.0 76.4 81.4
down 140 bps during the period. In the immediate term, APE growth may remain RoE (%) 12.1 13.2 14.3
muted, reflecting the impact of surrender value guidelines, i.e., revision in payout Div. yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.5
structures; we model 11% APE growth in 4QFY25E. The company has steady Nll (Rs bn) 287 335 411
counter share at HDFC Bank (overall bancassurance was up 26% yoy, with 20% PPOP (Rs bn) 419 470 543
growth at the parent bank) in 9MFY25. Investments in agency (up 6% in 3QFY25, Net profits (Rs bn) 18 21 24
17% in 9MFY25) will likely playout in the medium term. Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Prices in this report are based on the market close of

Retain BUY and FV at Rs850 January 15, 2025
We are revising down our EV estimates by 1-2% to reflect lower investment
variances and (-)1.7% and 0.2% change in VNB to factor lower volumes with margin
tailwinds. MTM change largely reflects lower equity gains (NIL for 9MFY25,
following market correction in 3QFY25); the rally in the debt market has been
supportive. We expect the company to deliver 17.5% VNB CAGR in FY2024-27E,
building moderate margin expansion. Operating RoEV will remain about 17%. We
retain the AV-based FV of Rs850 (2.5X EV December 2026E). HDFC Life and ICICI
Prudential Life remain our favored picks in the sector. Amid noise on regulatory
changes for the bancassurance business driving down life insurance stocks, we
highlight that the operating environment is extremely benign, which augurs well for
the prospects of steady players such as HDFC Life.
Full sector coverage on KINSITE
Nischint Chawathe M B Mahesh, CFA Varun Palacharla Abhijeet Sakhare Ashlesh Sonje, CFA
Nikhil Suresh
3
Exhibit 1: HDFC Life—quarterly summary, March fiscal year-ends, 3QFY25

Merged Merged Merged % change YoY Merged Merged YoY Merged
3QFY25 3QFY24 2QFY25 3QFY24 2QFY25 9MFY25 9MFY24 (%) 2025E 2024 (%) 2026E
Policyholder's account (Rs mn)
Premium 172,822 155,259 169,340 11 2 470,309 421,393 12 768,680 630,769 22 913,130
First 29,750 26,792 32,599 11 (9) 85,966 70,966 21 133,335 111,112 20 160,002
Renewal 93,766 83,962 88,311 12 6 246,184 220,392 12 380,957 334,451 14 439,719
Single 49,306 44,505 48,430 11 2 138,160 130,036 6 231,507 185,205 25 289,383
Net premium 168,318 152,353 166,137 10 1 459,940 414,992 11 757,239 619,873 22 901,117
Commissions (I) 19,325 12,394 18,528 56 4 52,555 30,720 71 30,290 52,341 (42) 36,045
First 16,000 6,684 12,662 139 26 37,060 17,804 108 31,289
Renewal 1,446 1,275 1,384 13 4 3,899 3,322 17 5,219
Single 1,878 4,435 4,482 (58) (58) 11,596 9,594 21 15,833
Operating expenses (II) 15,633 17,803 16,906 (12) (8) 45,289 51,682 (12) 113,586 69,287 64 135,168
Expenses of management (I+II) 34,958 30,197 35,433 16 (1) 97,844 82,402 19 143,875 121,627 18 171,212
Other income and trf. to shareholders a/c (480) 896 2,623 (154) (118) 2,888 3,078 (6) 17,471 4,609 279 22,712
Provisions and service taxes 1,421 640 (3,544) 122 NM (1,988) (3,948) NM 29,253 (2,741) NM 33,839
Benefits paid 92,089 98,661 103,392 (7) (11) 284,012 272,981 4 465,414 397,187 17 577,553
Net flows 39,371 23,752 33,479 66 18 82,961 66,635 25 136,168 108,408 26 141,226
Income on investments 1,954 113,698 116,133 (98) (98) 259,358 311,049 (17) 277,941 383,563 (28) 324,819
Change in liabilities 43,221 136,837 144,488 (68) (70) 333,450 372,650 (11) 400,127 484,210 (17) 449,102
Surplus/deficit (1,896) 613 5,124 (409) (137) 8,869 5,034 76 13,982 7,762 80 16,943
Appropriations — —
Transfer to shareholders account 1,021 1,293 3,874 (21) (74) 7,574 4,974 52 11,885 8,001 49 14,402
FFA (2,917) (680) 1,250 NM (333) 1,295 60 2,073 2,097 (240) NM 2,541
Shareholders account
Transfer from policyholders 1,021 1,293 3,874 (21) (74) 7,574 4,974 52 11,885 8,001 49 14,402
Total income 2,917 2,811 2,871 4 2 8,523 7,702 11 9,536 10,259 (7) 10,359
Investment income 2,730 2,811 2,700 (3) 1 8,013 7,507 7 9,311 10,033 (7) 10,133
Other expenses 596 273 410 118 46 1,352 977 38 2,998 1,311 129 3,448
Any other item (1,182) 162 1,931 (830) (161) 825 543 52 — 1,296 (100) —
PBT 4,524 3,668 4,405 23 3 13,920 11,156 25 18,423 15,653 18 21,313
Tax 311 18 53 1,655 488 565 (429) NM 258 (48) NM 298
PAT 4,213 3,651 4,352 15 (3) 13,355 11,585 15 18,165 15,701 16 21,015
Tax rate (%) 6.9 0.5 1.2 638 bps 567 bps 4.1 (3.8) 790 bps 1.4 (0.3) 1.4
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
3QFY25 highlights
HDFC Life reported PAT growth of 15% yoy in 3QFY25 due to higher existing business surplus (up 18%
yoy); growth in new business strain was lower at 10%. The expense of management growth (up 16% yoy)
was higher than the 12% APE growth reported in 3QFY25. According to management, the EOM ratio was
up 120 bps to 80.2% in 9MFY25. Commissions shot up 56% and operating expenses declined 12% yoy.
This likely reflects rebalancing between commissions and operating expenses due to the removal of
commission caps by the IRDA. Solvency is up to 188% (181% in 2QFY25), as the company issued sub-
debt of Rs10 bn during the quarter.
Underwriting profit up 46% yoy in 2QFY25

Exhibit 2: PAT and solvency ratio for HDFC Life, March fiscal year-ends, 2021-2024, 3QFY24-3QFY25 (Rs bn)
Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged YoY YoY Merged Merged YoY
3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 (%) 9MFY25 9QFY24 (%) 2021 2022 2023 2024 (%)
PAT 3.6 4.1 4.8 4.4 4.1 12 13.2 12 14 13.6 12.1 13.6 15.7 15
Underwriting profits 1.1 2.2 2.7 1.9 2.1 98 6.7 4 50 7.3 4.4 5.9 6.7 14
New business strain (11.5) (14.1) (11.5) (11.4) (12.7) NM (35.6) (31) NM (25.0) (30.5) (38.3) (45.5) 19
Existing business surplus 12.6 16.3 14.2 13.3 14.8 18 42.3 36 18 32.3 34.9 44.2 52.2 18
Shareholder's surplus 2.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.0 (20) 6.5 7 (9) 6.3 7.7 7.7 8.9 16
Solvency (%) 190 187 186 181 188 -200 bps 188 190 -200 bps 201 176 203 187 -1600 bps
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
HDFC Life Insurance

Insurance India Research
k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
4
HDFC Life’s individual APE growth at 12% is in line with 13% reported by private players in 3QFY25
Exhibit 3: Growth in individual APE yoy, March fiscal year-ends, 3QFY24-3QFY25, December 2023-December 2024 (%)
Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25
Aditya Birla Sun Life 10 36 9 (25) 16 18 22 36 30 65 34 29 27 2 (8) 19 44 29
Axis Max Life 15 51 34 (8) 32 31 22 45 20 38 15 25 11 18 10 27 34 16
Bajaj Allianz 20 32 34 5 22 18 35 47 22 34 10 (13) 2 24 17 26 34 (0)
Canara HSBC 19 28 (2) (14) 136 92 37 28 38 18 21 268 (44) 21 (3) 73 26 69
HDFC Life (5) 17 28 (28) 30 23 34 58 10 25 21 3 12 0 (7) 29 28 12
ICICI Prudential Life 13 22 34 (1) 72 57 28 40 29 33 22 28 9 10 12 47 34 18
India First (40) (24) (50) (53) (50) (35) (38) (22) (21) (7) 0 (14) 28 (21) (45) (41) (16) 3
Reliance Life 11 7 2 12 (24) 1 10 (0) 1 35 (22) 1 (15) 6 8 (7) 12 (13)
SBI Life 20 17 26 (7) 20 25 18 21 4 9 10 9 16 13 9 21 11 13
Star Union Daichi 21 30 7 (3) 26 20 17 17 20 22 (21) (3) (26) 10 8 20 20 (17)
Tata AIA 17 18 — (19) 30 22 18 12 15 60 6 5 15 8 (8) 22 30 10
Private sector 11 20 20 (12) 25 25 22 30 15 28 12 15 11 9 2 24 24 13
Top 4 12 22 30 (13) 32 30 25 36 12 22 15 12 14 10 5 28 22 14
Private (ex-Top 4) 10 17 10 (11) 15 19 18 22 19 36 7 20 7 9 (0) 18 26 11
Select tier-II players 18 24 14 (9) 26 20 26 28 18 48 8 (4) 10 15 2 24 32 5
LIC 2 7 13 (16) 18 7 13 0 1 48 (15) (12) (13) (2) (4) 12 16 (13)
Total 9 15 18 (13) 22 19 19 19 10 34 3 7 5 6 0 20 21 5
Source: LI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities
HDFC Life has maintained consistent margins compared with peers

Exhibit 4: VNB margin of life insurers, March fiscal year-ends, 2017-27E (%)
HDFC Life ICICI Prudential Life Max Life SBI Life

35
28
21
14
7
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Source: LI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities
Muted growth and stable margins

Growth has moderated. HDFC Life’s APE growth moderated to 12% yoy in 3QFY25 from 27% in 2QFY25
and 23% in 1QFY25. Growth was weak for the entire industry, with private sector growth moderating to
13% in 3QFY25 from 24% in 1HFY25. The renegotiation of commission structure with distributors has
likely impacted growth for the industry.
Impact of surrender values has been managed by sharing the burden with distributors. While
management had earlier called out a 100 bps impact from the change in surrender values, it is now
pegged at 30 bps. The decrease is largely attributable to negotiations with distributors to implement
deferred commissions, claw backs or reduced commissions. Of the entire business, 90-95% is covered
by a new commission structure.
Margins remain stable. HDFC Life reported a VNB margin of 26.1% in 3QFY25, down 77 bps yoy and up
174 bps qoq. Adjusting for a one-off delay in repricing of non-par products during the base period, the
VNB margin was up 60-70 bps qoq. According to management, ULIP margins have improved owing to
higher attachment of riders to ULIPs, reflecting in a high 28% growth in sum assured during the quarter.
Management has maintained its APE growth guidance of 18-20% from 15-16% and VNB growth guidance
of 15%.
HDFC Life Insurance

5
APE up 12% yoy

Exhibit 5: APE, VNB, VNB margin and EV, March fiscal year-ends, 3QFY24-3QFY25 (Rs bn)
Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Actual Estimate Act vs
3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 YoY (%) 3QFY25 3QFY25 KIE (%)
APE 31.9 47.3 28.7 38.6 35.7 11.8 35.7 35.7 0.1
VNB 8.6 12.3 7.2 9.4 9.3 8.6 9.3 8.9 4.0
VNB margin (%) 26.8 26.1 25.1 24.3 26.1 -77 bps 26.1 25.1 98 bps
EV 452 475 496 521 532 17.9
Source: LI Council, IRDA, Kotak Institutional Equities
Shift in product profile and new surrender values drag margins

Exhibit 6: VNB movement, March fiscal year-ends, 2021-2024, 1QFY25, 1HFY25, 9MFY25
Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged
2021 2022 2023 2024 1QFY25 1HFY25 9MFY25
VNB for prior year (Rs bn) 19.2 21.9 26.8 36.7 6.1 14.1 22.7
Impact of higher APE (Rs bn) 2.5 3.6 9.8 (0.1) 1.4 3.5 4.6
APE growth (%) 13.0 16.6 36.7 (0.3) 23.1 25.1 20.2
Change in assumptions (Rs bn) (0.6) (0.8) 0.1 (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2)
New business profile (Rs bn) 1.2 1.3 0.9 (0.5) (0.4) (1.2) (1.5)
Expense impact (Rs bn) (0.5) 0.8 (0.8) (0.9) 0.1 0.3 0.3
Closing VNB (Rs bn) 21.9 26.8 36.8 35.0 7.2 16.6 25.9
VNB margin (%) 26.1 27.4 27.5 26.3 25.1 24.6 25.1
Operating RoEV remains stable at 15% in 3QFY25

Operating RoEV at 14.8% was similar to the 15.4% reported in 2QFY25 and 14.7% in 1QFY25. Unwind at
7.4% was similar to 7.3-7.8% reported in the previous four quarters. Investment variance was down Rs8.1
bn, likely driven by weak performance of equity markets. Investment variance was up Rs13.6 bn in
1HFY25, driven by higher-than-expected returns in equity and MTM benefit of interest rate hedges.
According to management, in 9MFY25, the entire positive investment variance of Rs5.4 bn due to lower
interest rates.
Operating RoEV of 15% in 3QFY25

Exhibit 7: EV walk, March fiscal year-ends, 2023-2027E, 3QFY24-3QFY25 (Rs bn)
Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged
3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 YoY (%) 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Opening EV 429 452 475 496 521 21 330 395 475 557 649
Methodology/assumption changes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NM 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
VNB 8.6 12.3 7.2 9.4 9.3 8 36.7 35.0 40.0 47.7 56.4
Expected return in force 8.2 8.3 9.3 9.6 9.7 18 26.2 32.4 38.9 44.6 51.9
Operating variance 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.3 50 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8
Investment variance 5.3 1.6 4.0 9.6 (8.1) (252) (15.9) 13.5 5.0 3.0 3.0
ESOP and dividend payouts 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 (25) 16.7 (3.3) (3.0) (5.0) (6.0)
Closing EV 452 475 496 521 532 18 395 475 557 649 756
EVOP 17.0 20.8 17.4 19.2 19.3 14 64.8 69.2 80.6 94.0 110.1
RoEV 7.0 6.8 6.0 6.7 2.9 -412 bps 19.9 20.1 17.4 16.5 16.5
Operating RoEV 15.8 18.4 14.7 15.4 14.8 -102 bps 19.7 17.5 17.0 16.9 17.0
Other details
APE 31.9 47.3 28.7 38.6 35.7 12 133.4 132.9 155.5 181.9 212.9
YoY (%) (2) (8) 23 27 12 37 (0) 17 17 17
VNB 8.6 12.3 7.2 9.4 9.3 9 36.7 35.0 40.0 47.7 56.4
YoY (%) (2) (18) 18 17 9 37 (5) 14 19 18
VNB margins (%) 26.8 26.1 25.1 24.3 26.1 -77 bps 27.5 26.3 25.7 26.2 26.5
Effective unwinding rate (%) 7.6 7.3 7.8 7.7 7.4 -20 bps 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.0 8.0
HDFC Life Insurance

6
Growth moderates across products

Non-par growth moderate at 17% yoy. Despite strong traction for new launches (Click2Achieve)
growth remained moderate at 17%. The share of non-par is at 26%, similar to the 25% reported in
3QFY24.
Shift in equity markets weighs in on ULIPs. Volatility in equity markets has likely impacted ULIP
growth for HDFC Life (down to 13% yoy from 50% in 2QFY25 and 99% in 1QFY25). Impact might be
higher for peers with a higher share of ULIPs in the base period (50-60%).
Group protection picks up. Group protection growth picked up to 22% yoy in 3QFY25, on a low base
(down 31% yoy in 3QFY24). Credit protect volumes remain muted due to a slowdown in MFI
disbursements.
Retail protection growth moderates, but competition wanes. Retail protection growth dropped to
12% yoy from 31% reported in 1HFY25. According to management, peers have raised tariffs in the
segment and competitive intensity has moderated. SA growth was also strong at 30% in tier 2-3 cities,
reflecting a higher growth in protection in lower-tier cities.
Annuities growth also moderate at 14%. Annuities growth also moderated to 14% yoy in 3QFY25 from
26% in 2QFY25 and 23% in 1QFY25 similar to overall APE growth.
Strong growth in ULIPs and non-par

Exhibit 8: Product mix, March fiscal year-ends, 2022-2024, 3QFY24-3QFY25
Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged
3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 YoY (%) 9MFY24 9MFY25 YoY(%) 2022 2023 2024 YoY (%)
Product-wise break-up of APE (Rs bn)
Savings 27.4 41.5 22.9 30.9 30.4 11 68.4 84.2 23 79 110 110 (0)
Individual savings 25.5 37.3 22.0 30.2 28.7 13 64.0 80.9 26 73 104 101 (2)
ULIPs 10.7 17.0 9.4 11.7 12.2 13 23.3 33.2 43 21 22 40 86
Par 6.9 6.1 3.9 4.8 7.4 7 20.4 16.2 (21) 25 31 26 (14)
Non-par 7.8 14.2 8.6 13.6 9.2 17 20.4 31.5 54 27 51 35 (33)
Group savings 1.9 4.2 1.0 0.7 1.6 (13) 4.4 3.3 (26) 7 6 9 40
Protection 4.0 4.4 4.0 4.7 4.6 17 12.9 13.4 4 13 18 17 (3)
Individual protection 1.7 1.4 1.5 2.0 1.9 12 4.4 5.4 24 5 5 6 26
Group protection 2.3 3.0 2.5 2.7 2.8 22 8.5 8.0 (6) 9 13 12 (13)
Annuity 0.6 1.4 1.7 3.0 0.7 14 4.4 5.4 24 5 6 6 1
Share of total APE (%)
Savings 85.7 87.8 80.0 80.0 85.1 -66 bps 79.9 81.8 190 bps 81 82 83 26 bps
Individual savings 79.8 78.9 76.6 78.3 80.5 64 bps 74.7 78.6 386 bps 74 78 76 -159 bps
ULIPs 33.6 36.0 32.7 30.4 34.0 43 bps 27.2 32.3 513 bps 22 16 30 1406 bps
Par 21.7 12.9 13.8 12.6 20.7 -101 bps 23.8 15.7 -806 bps 25 23 20 -317 bps
Non-par 24.5 30.0 30.1 35.3 25.7 122 bps 23.8 30.6 678 bps 28 38 26 -1249 bps
Group savings 5.9 8.9 3.4 1.7 4.6 -130 bps 5.2 3.2 -196 bps 7 5 6 186 bps
Protection 12.4 9.3 14.0 12.3 13.0 62 bps 15.0 13.0 -204 bps 14 13 13 -32 bps
Individual protection 5.3 2.9 5.2 5.3 5.3 0 bps 5.1 5.2 14 bps 5 3 4 91 bps
Group protection 7.1 6.4 8.8 7.0 7.7 62 bps 9.9 7.8 -218 bps 9 10 9 -123 bps
Annuity 1.9 2.9 6.0 7.7 1.9 3 bps 5.1 5.2 14 bps 5 4 4 6 bps
HDFC Life Insurance

7
Non-par sold mostly through bancassurance

Exhibit 9: Product-wise channel mix, March fiscal year-ends, 3QFY24-3QFY25, 2022-2024 (%)
3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 YoY (bps) 9MFY24 9MFY25 YoY (bps) 2022 2023 2024 YoY (bps)
ULIP
Bancassurance 77.5 69.0 73.1 79.6 72.5 -503 bps 76.3 75.1 (117.0) 63.2 70.5 72.9 240 bps
Agency 16.4 13.1 12.7 12.3 13.2 -316 bps 13.1 12.8 (34.0) 8.1 10.5 13.1 263 bps
Direct/online 5.3 16.6 12.7 4.8 9.7 448 bps 9.8 8.9 (93.0) 22.8 18.4 13.0 -546 bps
Broker 0.9 1.3 1.5 3.3 4.6 371 bps 0.8 3.2 244.0 5.9 0.6 1.0 43 bps
Participating
Bancassurance 60.3 59.8 50.5 54.1 66.6 634 bps 62.7 58.8 (381.0) 73.1 56.4 62.0 558 bps
Agency 23.1 25.9 25.3 21.9 19.7 -334 bps 21.5 21.7 19.0 17.0 24.6 22.6 -199 bps
Direct/online 7.7 2.2 7.8 13.1 7.4 -37 bps 5.6 9.4 379.0 7.0 6.3 4.8 -154 bps
Broker 8.9 12.0 16.3 10.9 6.3 -264 bps 10.2 10.1 (16.0) 2.9 12.7 10.7 -206 bps
Non-par savings
Bancassurance 64.6 68.9 69.8 67.7 65.7 112 bps 62.4 67.7 533.0 60.6 52.6 65.1 1246 bps
Agency 19.5 17.6 17.3 17.6 16.6 -285 bps 21.4 17.2 (421.0) 16.7 21.9 19.8 -210 bps
Direct/online 11.9 5.5 5.6 7.1 7.6 -431 bps 9.9 6.8 (311.0) 16.3 10.2 8.1 -210 bps
Broker 4.0 8.0 7.3 7.7 10.1 605 bps 6.3 8.3 200.0 6.4 15.3 7.0 -825 bps
Term
Bancassurance 56.2 51.5 43.0 45.9 46.2 -1002 bps 48.4 45.1 (325.0) 41.3 41.2 49.5 835 bps
Agency 32.4 18.4 25.3 32.2 30.2 -223 bps 27.2 29.5 229.0 24.1 29.4 24.0 -541 bps
Direct/online (4.5) 17.9 10.9 8.3 9.8 1425 bps 6.2 9.5 331.0 29.4 15.9 10.5 -546 bps
Broker 15.8 12.2 20.8 13.7 13.8 -201 bps 18.1 15.8 (235.0) 5.2 13.5 16.0 252 bps
Annuity
Bancassurance 43.3 70.8 38.4 28.7 37.0 -628 bps 46.8 33.7 (1,309.0) 18.1 39.6 51.2 1161 bps
Agency 5.0 22.8 13.4 10.0 3.6 -136 bps 8.8 8.8 4.0 6.3 10.6 11.3 74 bps
Direct/online 49.7 3.9 45.5 59.2 56.7 701 bps 41.5 55.1 1,356.0 57.4 45.9 34.6 -1129 bps
Broker 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.1 2.7 62 bps 2.9 2.4 (51.0) 18.1 3.9 2.8 -105 bps
Notes:
(a) All figures are on merged basis.
Banca supports overall growth

Muted growth in agency channel. Agency APE growth was down to 6% in 3QFY25 from 24% in
1HFY25. Restructuring of commissions has likely led to a sharp 9% decline in agency force during the
quarter and moderation in growth.
 HDFC Life has made significant investments in agency force over FY2024, which has led to a
pickup in growth, especially in tier-2 and tier-3 cities during 1HFY25. The attrition of poor-quality
agents will also result in better portfolio performance, auguring well for VNB growth in the channel.
Bancassurance fares better. Bancassurance APE growth at 17% yoy was largely driven by non-HDFC
bank channels. According to management, growth in the HDFC Bank channel was at 10% yoy during
the quarter. Management has highlighted that the counter share at HDFC Bank remains stable at 65%.
 Management highlighted that the share of bancassurance on individual NBP basis is lower at 55%
(65% on APE). Since IRDA disclosures are on NBP basis, this metric is likely monitored by the
regulator. Incremental focus of management is on improving product mix and optimizing
manpower utilization in the HDFC Bank channel.
Brokers report strong growth. Brokers reported strong 78% yoy APE growth, driven by strong growth
in non-par and ULIPs.
HDFC Life Insurance

8
Bancassurance supports overall growth

Exhibit 10: Channel mix, March fiscal year-ends, 3QFY24-3QFY25, 2022-2024 (%)
Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged
3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 YoY (%) 9MFY24 9MFY25 YoY (%) 2022 2023 2024 YoY (%)
Individual APE (Rs bn) 27 43 25 34 31 17 72 90 25 81 114 115 1
Individual agents 5 8 4 6 5 6 13 15 17 11 23 21 (9)
Bancassurance 17 28 16 22 20 17 47 58 26 49 64 75 17
Direct 3 5 3 4 3 12 8 10 24 16 15 13 (15)
Brokers and others 1 3 2 2 2 78 4 6 44 5 13 7 (45)
Mix (%)
Individual agents 18 18 17 17 17 -100 bps 18 17 -100 bps 14 20 18 -200 bps
Bancassurance 62 67 65 65 65 260 bps 64 65 100 bps 60 56 65 900 bps
Direct 11 11 11 11 11 0 bps 11 11 0 bps 19 13 11 -200 bps
Brokers and others 4 6 7 7 7 260 bps 6 7 100 bps 6 11 6 -500 bps
Agency force down 9% qoq

Exhibit 11: Individual agency size, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-2024, 1QFY25, 1HFY25, 9MFY25 (#000s)
Additions Agents
125 258 275
233 235
214
100 220
179
75 165
108 112 115

116
50 91 110
82 77
65 83
55 55 69
25 46 55
36 42
29 31
22 21 18 17 24 19
0 0
1HFY25
9MFY25
2018
2020
2022
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2021
2023
2024
1QFY25
HDFC Life lagged peers in agency growth during FY2024 and 1HFY25
Exhibit 12: Agency channel key metrics, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-2024, 1HFY24, 1HFY25 (%)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YoY (%) CAGR (%) 1HFY24 1HFY25 YoY (%)
Premium (Rs bn)
Bajaj Allianz Life 11 12 11 11 15 21 25 20 15 11 13 23
HDFC Life 5 7 9 9 11 23 21 (9) 26 8 10 24
ICICI Pru Life 20 17 16 15 18 23 26 16 5 9 14 51
Max Life 7 8 9 14 16 23 30 28 29 11 17 51
SBI Life 21 26 28 30 30 43 50 15 15 21 28 32
Agents (# 000')
HDFC Life 77 91 108 112 115 179 214 19 19 210 258 23
ICICI Pru Life 152 171 191 188 199 201 210 4 6 203 211 4
Max Life 57 51 46 55 61 70 103 46 10 88 118 35
SBI Life 108 124 130 170 146 209 246 18 15 237 264 11
Annualized premium per agent (Rs mn)
HDFC Life 68 74 80 83 99 127 97 (24) 6 77 77 1
ICICI Pru Life 131 99 82 82 92 113 126 11 (1) 88 128 45
Max Life 115 148 194 254 263 328 288 (12) 17 250 281 12
SBI Life 193 207 212 175 207 207 202 (3) 1 181 214 18
HDFC Life Insurance

9
Share of non-par has shot up 173-1,811 bps yoy across most channels
Exhibit 13: Channel-wise product mix, March fiscal year-ends, 3QFY24-3QFY25, 2022-2024 (%)
3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 YoY (bps) 9MFY24 9MFY25 YoY (bps) 2022 2023 2024 YoY (bps)
Agency
ULIP 30.0 33.8 28.0 22.4 29.3 (75) 22.0 26.0 400 16.0 10.0 26.0 1,600
Participating 31.4 22.8 23.0 20.9 29.1 (226) 33.0 24.0 (900) 33.0 33.0 29.0 (400)
Non-par savings 28.2 33.9 36.0 42.2 29.9 173 33.0 36.0 300 39.0 49.0 33.0 (1,600)
Term 8.0 5.4 9.0 10.5 10.5 250 8.0 10.0 200 10.0 6.0 7.0 100
Annuity 2.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 1.2 (122) 4.0 3.0 (100) 3.0 3.0 4.0 100
Bancassurance
ULIP 40.3 45.4 42.0 37.6 39.6 (73) 36.0 40.0 400 29.0 24.0 40.0 1,600
Participating 23.3 13.4 12.0 13.4 24.3 98 27.0 17.0 (1,000) 33.0 27.0 22.0 (500)
Non-par savings 26.6 34.0 38.0 42.1 29.2 265 27.0 37.0 1,000 33.0 42.0 30.0 (1,200)
Term 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.0 3 4.0 4.0 - 4.0 3.0 4.0 100
Annuity 5.9 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.0 (293) 6.0 3.0 (300) 2.0 4.0 5.0 100
Broker
ULIP 6.6 9.7 8.0 15.0 23.5 1,695 4.0 16.0 1,200 27.0 1.0 6.0 500
Participating 49.6 31.6 36.0 25.8 21.4 (2,818) 47.0 27.0 (2,000) 13.0 31.0 41.0 1,000
Non-par savings 23.9 46.6 37.0 46.0 42.0 1,811 29.0 42.0 1,300 35.0 62.0 35.0 (2,700)
Term 16.0 10.9 18.0 11.2 11.1 (487) 16.0 13.0 (300) 5.0 5.0 14.0 900
Annuity 4.0 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 (200) 4.0 2.0 (200) 20.0 2.0 3.0 100
Direct/Online
ULIP 16.0 69.6 43.0 13.5 31.7 1,572 27.0 28.0 100 33.0 27.0 42.0 1,500
Participating 17.5 3.2 11.0 19.5 16.0 (149) 14.0 16.0 200 10.0 13.0 10.0 (300)
Non-par savings 28.7 17.3 18.0 26.4 20.1 (854) 25.0 22.0 (300) 28.0 35.0 22.0 (1,300)
Term (1.8) 8.7 6.0 4.2 5.0 684 3.0 5.0 200 9.0 5.0 5.0 —
Annuity 39.7 1.2 21.0 36.3 27.1 (1,253) 31.0 29.0 (200) 20.0 20.0 20.0 —
Company
ULIP 37.4 42.0 38.0 34.5 37.8 35 32.0 37.0 500 26.0 19.0 35.0 1,600
Participating 24.2 15.1 16.0 14.3 23.0 (120) 28.0 18.0 (1,000) 30.0 27.0 23.0 (400)
Non-par savings 27.3 35.0 35.0 40.2 28.6 127 28.0 35.0 700 33.0 45.0 30.0 (1,500)
Term 5.8 3.4 6.0 6.0 5.8 (2) 6.0 6.0 - 6.0 4.0 5.0 100
Annuity 5.3 4.5 5.0 5.0 4.9 (40) 7.0 5.0 (200) 5.0 5.0 6.0 100
Notes:
(a) All figures are on merged basis.
Persistency remains strong in most buckets

Persistency remains strong in most buckets, up 70-750 bps yoy in 1HFY25. The sharp 750 bps yoy rise
in the 61st month persistency is likely driven by a higher share of non-par products such as Sanchay Plus
in the cohort. The benefit of this rise in persistency has likely already been baked into EV and margins.
Increased penetration in lower ticket sizes and lower-tier cities may affect persistency trends over the
medium term. While the impact of drop in persistency may be baked into the pricing of such products,
the overall persistency may decline during FY2025-27E.
Persistency remains strong in most buckets

Exhibit 14: Persistency, March fiscal year-ends, 2021 onward (%)
Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged
2021 2022 2023 1QFY24 1HFY24 9MFY24 2024 1QFY25 1HFY25 9MFY25 YoY
13th month 84.9 87.5 87.0 87.0 86.0 86.3 87.1 87.3 87.6 87.0 70 bps
25th month 71.3 78.8 79.0 79.0 79.0 79.5 79.2 75.9 78.2 78.0 -150 bps
37th month 65.1 67.5 72.0 73.0 72.0 72.7 73.2 73.1 74.2 74.0 130 bps
49th month 62.7 63.2 64.0 65.0 68.0 68.4 69.7 67.5 69.3 70.0 160 bps
61st month 48.9 54.0 52.0 53.0 53.0 53.5 53.5 59.9 60.4 61.0 750 bps
Exhibit 15: AUM mix, March fiscal year-ends, 2018-2024, 9MFY25

Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged
AUM (Rs bn) Share of total (%)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 9MFY25 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 9MFY25
Equity mix
Equity 416 477 369 626 755 716 964 1,085 39 38 29 36 37 30 33 33
Debt 650 778 903 1,113 1,286 1,671 1,958 2,202 61 62 71 64 63 70 67 67
HDFC Life Insurance

10
Cost ratio up 100 bps yoy in 3QFY25

Exhibit 16: Expense ratios, March fiscal year-ends, 2022-2024, 3QFY24-3QFY25
Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged Merged
YoY YoY YoY
3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 (%) 9MFY24 9MFY25 (%) 2022 2023 2024 (%)
Key financials (Rs mn)
Premium 155,259 209,376 128,147 169,340 172,822 11 421,393 ###### 12 459,628 575,334 630,769 10
First year 26,792 40,146 23,617 32,599 29,750 11 70,966 85,966 21 80,544 113,239 111,112 (2)
Renewal 83,962 114,060 64,106 88,311 93,766 12 220,392 ###### 12 218,080 284,483 334,451 18
Single 44,505 55,170 40,424 48,430 49,306 11 130,036 ###### 6 161,005 177,612 185,205 4
APE 31,243 45,663 27,660 37,442 34,680 11 83,970 99,782 19 96,644 131,000 129,633 (1)
Commissions (I) 12,394 21,621 14,703 18,528 19,325 56 30,720 52,555 71 19,044 28,281 52,341 85
First year 6,684 13,485 8,398 12,662 16,000 139 17,804 37,060 108 13,681 20,292 31,289 54
Renewal 1,275 1,896 1,069 1,384 1,446 13 3,322 3,899 17 3,301 5,222 5,219 (0)
Single 4,435 6,240 5,236 4,482 1,878 (58) 9,594 11,596 21 2,062 2,767 15,833 472
Operating expenses (II) 17,803 17,605 12,750 16,906 15,633 (12) 51,682 45,289 (12) 56,484 85,028 69,287 (19)
Expenses of management (I+II) 30,197 39,225 27,452 35,433 34,958 16 82,402 97,844 19 75,528 113,308 121,627 7
AUM (Rs bn) 2,797 2,922 3,102 3,249 3,287 18 2,797 3,287 18 2,042 2,388 2,922 22
Key calculated ratios (%)
Cost/APE 26.2 24.6 29.9 28.2 27.2 100 bps 27.1 28.3 121 bps 24.0 27.3 26.2 -106 bps
Cost/average AUM 4.4 5.5 3.6 4.6 4.3 -16 bps 4.0 4.0 -4 bps 4.0 4.8 4.3 -54 bps
Net commission ratio 10.8 13.5 16.0 14.7 15.0 429 bps 10.1 15.2 510 bps 6.1 6.8 11.3 447 bps
First year 24.9 33.6 35.6 38.8 53.8 2883 bps 25.1 43.1 1802 bps 17.0 17.9 28.2 1024 bps
Renewal 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 2 bps 1.5 1.6 8 bps 1.5 1.8 1.6 -28 bps
Single 10.0 11.3 13.0 9.3 3.8 -616 bps 7.4 8.4 102 bps 1.3 1.6 8.5 699 bps
We model 17% VNB CAGR

We continue to build in moderate VNB forecasts—17% CAGR during FY2024-27E—and unwinding of 8.0-
8.2%, leading to a 17% operating RoEV over the medium term.
We are building in 17% APE growth in FY2025E (11% in 4QFY25E), down from 20% earlier, but we
maintain our VNB growth estimate at 17%. Negotiations between insurers and distributors have led to
lower drag on margins in 2HFY25E. We expect VNB margin to inch up to 26.8% in 4QFY25E from 26.1%
in 3QFY25, driven by a shift in the product mix. Resultantly, the full-year VNB margin will settle at 25.7%
in FY2025E, lower than 26.3% in FY2024.
We model 17% APE growth in FY2026-27E, partially reflecting HDFC Life’s focus on growth and
expansion to interiors. We expect a revival in the agency business, which remains sensitive to our growth
forecasts. We expect margins to expand 30-50 bps per year over FY2026-27E, reflecting an inch-up in
savings business margins (up 110 bps) and better operating leverage.
HDFC Life Insurance

11
We model 17% operating RoEV during FY2025-27E

Exhibit 17: EV walk, March fiscal year-ends, 2017-2027E
Standalone Merged
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
APE 41.9 55 63 74 84 98 133 133 156 182 213
YoY (%) 16.1 32 13 18 13 17 37 (0) 17 17 17
VNB 9.2 13 15 19 22 27 37 35 40 48 56
YoY (%) 24.3 39 20 25 14 22 37 (5) 14 19 18
EV movement
Opening EV 102.3 125 152 183 207 266 330 395 475 557 649
Assumption change 1.2 2 — (1) (2) (7) 0 0 — — —
VNB 9.2 13 15 19 22 27 37 35 40 48 56
Expected return in force 9.6 10 13 14 17 23 26 32 39 45 52
Operating variance 2.2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
Mortality variance (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Persistency variance 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Expense variance and others 1 1 0 1 1 1 1
EVOP 22.2 27 31 33 38 44 65 69 81 94 110
Investment variance 2.5 3 4 (10) 21 (1) (16) 14 5 3 3
Dividend payout (2.4) (2) (3) 0 1 (9) 17 (3) (3) (5) (6)
Closing EV 124.6 152 183 207 266 300 395 475 557 649 756
Key ratios (%)
VNB margins 22.0 23 25 26 26 27 28 26 26 26 27
RoEV 21.8 22 20 13 29 13 32 20 17 17 17
Operating RoEV 21.7 22 20 18 19 17 22 18 17 17 17
Unwind 9.4 8 9 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 8
Sensitivity to interest rates has inched up

Exhibit 18: EV and VNB sensitivity, March fiscal year-ends, 2018-2024, 1HFY25 (%)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1HFY25
VNB EV VNB EV VNB EV VNB EV VNB EV VNB EV VNB EV VNB EV
Interest rates and assets
Interest and discount rates up 100 bps 0.3 (1.8) (0.4) (1.7) (0.3) (1.2) (1.5) (2.2) (1.4) (2.0) (1.5) (2.4) (1.2) (2.7) (1.6) (2.7)
Interest an discount rates down 100 bps (1.7) 1.9 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.6 0.8 1.6 0.7 2.1 0.8 2.6 0.8 2.6
Equity values down 10% (1.2) (1.8) (1.4) (1.7) (0.3) (1.1) (0.1) (1.1) (0.1) (1.4) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1)
Expenses
Maintenance expense up 10% (2.2) (0.6) (2.1) (0.7) (2.4) (0.8) (0.5) (0.8) (0.5) (0.8) (5.0) (0.8) (0.6) (0.9) (0.7) (0.9)
Maintenance expense down 10% 2.2 0.6 2.1 0.7 2.4 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9
Acquisition expense up 10% (14.2) NA (18.1) NA (14.9) NA (3.1) NA (3.4) NA (3.9) 0.0 (3.2) 0.0 (2.8) 0.0
Acquisition expense down 10% 14.2 NA 18.1 NA 14.9 NA 3.1 NA 3.4 NA 3.9 0.0 3.2 0.0 2.8 0.0
Policy/ premium discontinuance rates
Discontinuance rate up 10% (5.6) (1.8) (2.9) (1.4) (2.1) (0.7) (0.3) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.3) (0.3) (0.6) (0.1) (0.9) (0.1)
Discontinuance rate down 10% 6.1 1.9 3.0 1.5 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.1
Insurance risk
Mortality and morbidity rates up 5% (5.2) (0.8) (5.2) (0.9) (2.4) (0.9) (1.0) (0.8) (1.2) (1.0) (1.4) (1.1) (1.5) (1.2) (1.3) (1.1)
Mortality and morbidity rates down 5% 5.2 0.8 5.1 0.9 2.4 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.1
Taxation
Assumed tax rate up 25% (14.4) (7.6) (13.8) (6.6) (20.0) (7.7) (4.8) (8.3) (4.8) (9.1) (5.8) (8.9) (5.1) (9.3) (4.9) (9.5)
HDFC Life Insurance

12
Exhibit 19: Change in estimates, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-27E (Rs bn)
New estimates Old estimates New versus old (%)
2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2026E 2025E 2026E 2027E
Opening EV 474.6 557.2 649.2 474.6 566.9 659.6 0.0 (1.7) (1.6)
VNB 40.0 47.7 56.4 40.7 47.6 56.3 (1.7) 0.2 0.1
Expected return in force 38.9 44.6 51.9 38.9 45.4 52.8 0.0 (1.7) (1.6)
Closing EV 557 649 756 567 660 768 (1.7) (1.6) (1.5)
APE 156 182 213 159 187 218 (2.5) (2.5) (2.5)
EVOP 81 94 110 81 95 111 (0.9) (0.7) (0.7)
VNB margin (%) 25.7 26.2 26.5 25.5 25.5 25.8 20 bps 70 bps 70 bps
RoEV (%) 17.4 16.5 16.5 19.4 16.4 16.4 -205 bps 16 bps 15 bps
Operating RoEV (%) 17.0 16.9 17.0 17.1 16.7 16.8 -15 bps 17 bps 15 bps
EV/share (Rs) 259 302 352 259 305 305 0.3 (0.8) 15.6
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
We value HDFC Life at 2.5X December 2026E EV

Exhibit 20: Appraisal value of HDFC Life, March fiscal year-ends, 2023-2027E
Merged
2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Embedded value (EV, Rs bn) 395 475 557 649 756
Value of new business (VNB, Rs bn) 37 35 40 48 56
New business multiple (NBM, X) 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8
Structural value (SV= VNB X NBM, Rs bn) 763 727 830 990 1,171
Appraisal value (AV= EV + SV, Rs bn) 1,158 1,202 1,387 1,639 1,928
Appraisal value/ EV (X) 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Appraisal value/ VNB (X) 32 34 35 34 34
Value of HDFC Life (Rs/ share) 539 559 645 763 897
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
HDFC Life's valuation premium has narrowed

Exhibit 21: One-year forward P/EV for life insurers, March fiscal year-ends, January 2020-January 2025 (X)
ICICI Life HDFC Life SBI Life Max Life

6
1
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Jan-25
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Apr-24
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-24
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-23
Oct-24
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
HDFC Life Insurance

13
HDFC Life trades at 2.0X FY2026E EV

Exhibit 22: Valuation summary for life insurers, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-2027E
Market EVOP CAGR
FV Price cap. Price/EV (X) Price/VNB (X) (2024-27E) Price/EVOP (X) Operating RoEV (%)
Rating (Rs) (Rs) (Rs bn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E (%) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E
HDFC Life BUY 850 594 1,279 2.3 2.0 1.7 32 27 23 17 16 14 12 17.0 16.9 17.0
ICICI Prudential Life BUY 850 633 915 1.9 1.6 1.4 35 29 25 20 15 13 11 14.1 14.8 15.2
LIC BUY 1,250 836 5,288 0.6 0.6 0.5 52 51 51 11 7 8 7 11.1 8.4 8.4
LIC core 607 3,838 1.0 0.9 0.7 38 37 37 11 5 5 5 NA NA NA
Max FS ADD 1,350 1,035 357 1.9 1.6 1.4 22 20 17 18 13 11 9 19.6 18.0 18.0
SBI Life ADD 1,900 1,473 1,476 2.1 1.7 1.5 25 21 18 16 13 11 9 19.6 18.3 18.3
HDFC Life Insurance

RESULT
L&T Technology Services (LTTS) SELL

IT Services
CMP(₹): 4,852 Fair Value(₹): 4,750 Sector View: Neutral NIFTY-50: 23,213 January 15, 2025
Buoyant outlook Company data and valuation summary

Revenue growth was on expected lines but strong deal wins and sharp margin Stock data
improvement were surprises during the quarter. LTTS cut FY2025E organic
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 4,852/4,750/SELL
revenue growth outlook to ~8% (8-10% earlier) while organic EBIT margin
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 6,000-4,200
guidance remains unchanged at ~16% levels. Against the backdrop of a
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 514/5.9
deteriorating environment in many verticals, deal wins and performance are
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 660/7.6
creditable. We incorporate the Intelliswift acquisition, current quarter beat
and strong deal wins in our estimates. The net result is 0-3% increase in EPS Shareholding pattern (%)
over FY2025-27E. FV increases to Rs4,750 on rollover. The stock is
6.32.2
expensive. Maintain SELL. 9.1
4.3
4.3
In-line revenues; strong show on margins
LTTS reported revenue growth of 3.1% c/c qoq (KIE: 3.2%) led by tech (+11.1% 73.7
qoq) and sustainability (+4.0% qoq) verticals while mobility declined sharply ((-
Promoters FPIs MFs BFIs Retail Others
)5.2%) following a couple of quarters of outperformance. Qoq revenue growth
was robust across Europe (+5%), India (+7.7%) and RoW (+8.1%) while North Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
America was flat. In reported terms, revenues were at US$311.9 mn, up 1.7% Absolute (10) (9) (11)
1933
qoq. EBIT margin was up 80 bps to 15.9%, led by offshoring and lower SG&A Rel. to Nifty (4) (1) (16)
Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities Act of
(down 90 bps) partly offset by the impact of wage hikes and one-time M&A Rel. to MSCI India (2) 1 (19)
expenses (30 bps). Reported net profit was at Rs3.2 bn, decline of 4.1% yoy.
Forecasts/Valuations 2025E 2026E 2027E
FY2025E organic revenue growth guidance moved to lower end of the band EPS (Rs) 122.6 146.5 170.1
EPS growth (%) (0.7) 19.5 16.0
The company revised its FY2025E revenue growth guidance to ~10% including
P/E (X) 39.6 33.1 28.5
contribution from Intelliswift. Revised organic outlook of ~8% yoy is at the lower
P/B (X) 8.5 7.4 6.5
end of earlier guidance of 8-10% organic revenue growth. This implies 5.0-6.5% c/c
EV/EBITDA (X) 24.8 20.6 17.9
qoq growth in 4QFY25E. We do not expect significant seasonality in Intelliswift.
RoE (%) 22.8 23.9 24.3
Div. yield (%) 0.9 1.1 1.3
LTTS continues to expect organic business EBIT margin near 16% for FY2025E,
Sales (Rs bn) 107 128 144
implying 16.5% EBIT margin for 4QFY25E (up 30 bps qoq excluding on-time costs).
EBITDA (Rs bn) 20 23 27
The company expects operating efficiencies to aid in margin uptick in the organic
Net profits (Rs bn) 13 15 18
business.
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Strong deal wins after rangebound performance over a reasonably long period
Prices in this report are based on the market close of
LTTS reported eight large deal wins including a US$50 mn TCV multi-year deal January 15, 2025
and multiple deals above US$35 mn, US$25 mn and US$10 mn TCV. Large deal
TCV at US$200 mn+ is the highest ever. LTTS had restructured its large deals
team led by a new hire to improve the win rate. Early results hold some promise
with a robust large deal pipeline despite healthy conversions during the quarter.
Marginal tweaks to estimates; maintain SELL with FV of Rs4,750

We tweak our EPS estimates up to ~3% over FY2025-27E. We now include Related Research
Intelliswift in our estimates leading to ~6-7% increase in FY2026-27E revenue
→ L&T Technology Services: Broad-based
and cut our EBIT margin estimates by 40-70 bps over FY2026-27E due to
→ growth, but disappoints
L&T Technology onAggressive
Services: profitabilitygrowth
amortization of acquisition-related intangibles. Our FV rises on roll-forward to
aspirations
→ L&T Technology Services: Adds software
Rs4,750 (Rs4,450 earlier), valuing the company at 28X FY2027E PE. Near -term
outlook provides some optimism but we would wait for sustained improvement muscle with cushion of valuations
before reevaluating our cautious stance. Full sector coverage on KINSITE
Kawaljeet Saluja Vamshi Krishna Sathishkumar S

15
Intelliswift acquisition aids in expansion in software engineering for hi-tech clients

Software engineering is a large and fast-growing segment within ERD services, where LTTS has lagged
due to the gap in capabilities. Intelliswift’s product development capabilities are complementary to LTTS
and add muscle to software engineering offerings, enabling LTTS to provide services across hardware,
embedded and software stack. The acquisition will help LTTS expand its presence in both existing and
new clients in the hi-tech vertical. Cross-pollination of capabilities to LTTS’ non-hi-tech clients and
leverage of data engineering and AI capabilities can provide further synergy opportunities.
Intelliswift will be a part of the new sub-segment—Software & Platforms, within the Tech segment. In
addition to strengthening presence in hyperscalers, LTTS aspires to foray into service-led sectors such
as retail, fintech and healthcare leveraging Intelliswift’s capabilities. Intelliswift had annualized revenues
of US$100 mn and EBITDA margin in the 7-8% range, implying transaction EV/EBITDA multiple in ~14-
16X range.
Fixed price contract revenues spike

Revenues from fixed price projects increased by 11.7% qoq and 14.8% yoy (US$ terms). Some part of
revenues could be related to the ongoing execution of Mahacyber. The revenue mix from fixed price
projects increased by 370 bps qoq.
Sharp decline in mobility following robust performance over 1HFY25

Seasonal weakness due to furloughs in auto in trucks & off-highway sub-segments in addition to broad-
based demand challenges in the automotive industry led to sharp decline in the mobility segment. The
near-term growth outlook for the vertical is likely to be muted. Management expects challenges in
automotive to persist through 1HCY25 but also indicated toward a healthy pipeline build-up with several
large vendor consolidation deals in the pipeline. On the other hand, LTTS indicated increased
engagements with clients for testing and automation services.
Tight cost controls drive sharp margin improvement

EBIT margin (ex-one-time costs) increased by 110 bps to 16.2% driven by (1) better quality of revenues
as a result of investments made over 1HFY25, (2) lower SG&A (90 bps) and (3) operating efficiencies,
partly offset by the wage hike impact of 100 bps. LTTS expects organic EBIT margin to be near 16% for
FY2025E despite higher contribution of the low-margin SWC business in 4QFY25E, aided by optimizing
employee pyramid and increased offshoring.
Margin recovery to mid-16% range pushed back by 8-9 quarters

Overall EBIT margin in 4QFY25 is likely to be near 15% levels, including 150 bps qoq impact from
Intelliswift acquisition. Management now expects EBIT margin to return to mid-16% range by 4QFY27 or
1QFY28, due to (1) gradual recovery in Intelliswift profitability and (2) impact of amortization of
intangibles.
Sharp decline in US$20 mn+ client cohort

US$20 mn+ clients declined by 3 clients qoq and 4 clients yoy to 10 clients during the quarter. This
reflects sharply lower revenue mix from top 11-20 clients (down 190 bps qoq), also likely due to cross-
currency. Performance in the rest of the client tiers was better—(1) US$30 mn+ clients were flat qoq and
up 3 clients yoy, (2) US$10 mn+ clients were up by 1 qoq and up by 3 yoy.
Muted employee headcount trends over 9MFY25

During 3QFY25, employee headcount declined by 233 people (down 1% qoq) to 23.5K employees.
Employee headcount has declined by 1.5% over the past 3 quarters. Over the past 7 quarters, the
company’s headcount has remained in the ~23-24K range. We believe the company has pulled up
utilization to maintain growth momentum despite tighter hiring. LTTS would be onboarding 1.5K people
(~1K based in India) from Intelliswift in the March 2025 quarter. The company plans to add 2K freshers
during FY2026E.
L&T Technology Services

IT Services India Research
16
Key highlights from earnings call

Demand. Strong deal wins and elevated deal pipeline provide comfort on sustainability of healthy
growth in the near term. Management expects growth across all segments in 4QFY25E, though
mobility is likely to be relatively muted. LTTS expects better performance in FY2026E as compared to
FY2025E.
Sustainability. Increased spends in process engineering and continued recovery in industrial

products drive growth in the segment. Industrial automation and supply-chain optimization initiatives
are attracting spends in the segment.
Tech. Medtech, comms, media and ISV led growth in the tech segment during the quarter. LTTS
expects all sub-segments to grow aided by increased spending by clients with the exception of semi-
conductor, where the demand remains challenged. Within medtech, management indicated uptick in
QARA and digital manufacturing offerings. The company expects to benefit from some revenue
contribution from Mahacyber engagement in addition to usual SWC seasonality to aid growth in
4QFY25.
DSO. DSO (including unbilled) declined by 4 days to 112 days qoq. Unbilled revenues declined by 1
day qoq to 17 days during the quarter.
Cashflow. FCF/PAT at 198% in 3QFY25. FYTD25 FCF/PAT at 101%. FCF was aided by sharp increase
in other current liabilities during the quarter.
Exhibit 1: LTTS: consolidated quarterly results as per Ind-AS, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)
% change
3QFY25 3QFY25E 3QFY24 2QFY25 KIE yoy qoq FY2025E FY2024 % chg.
Revenue (US$ mn) 312 314 291 307 (0.7) 7.3 1.7 1,266 1,164 8.8
Revenues 26,530 26,570 24,218 25,729 (0.1) 9.5 3.1 107,210 96,472 11.1
Employee costs (13,951) (14,071) (12,539) (13,852) (0.9) 11.3 0.7 (56,785) (49,298) 15.2
Other operating expenses (7,632) (7,629) (6,802) (7,217) 0.0 12.2 5.8 (30,722) (27,985) 9.8
EBITDA 4,947 4,870 4,877 4,660 1.6 1.4 6.2 19,702 19,189 2.7
Depreciation (728) (753) (715) (783) (3.4) 1.8 (7.0) (3,131) (2,716) 15.3
EBIT 4,219 4,116 4,162 3,877 2.5 1.4 8.8 16,571 16,473 0.6
Other Income 447 381 465 399 17.3 (3.9) 12.0 1,588 1,571 1.1
Forex gains/(loss) (112) 125 159 251 (189.6) (170.4) (144.6) 126 502 (74.9)
Finance costs (155) (125) (131) (119) (502) (509) (1)
Profit Before Tax 4,399 4,497 4,655 4,408 (2.2) (5.5) (0.2) 17,784 18,037 (1.4)
Provision for Tax (1,204) (1,237) (1,287) (1,208) (2.6) (6.4) (0.3) (4,890) (4,975) (1.7)
Minority Interest 29 (4) (6) (4) 51 (26) (296.2)
Net profit (before EO items) 3,224 3,256 3,362 3,196 (1.0) (4.1) 0.9 12,944 13,036 (0.7)
Extraordinary items — — — — — —
Net Profit- Reported 3,224 3,256 3,362 3,196 (1.0) (4.1) 0.9 12,944 13,036 (0.7)
Diluted EPS (Rs/share) 30.4 30.7 31.7 30.1 (0.9) (4.2) 0.9 122.6 123.5 (0.7)
As % of revenues
Employee cost 52.6 53.0 51.8 53.8 53.0 51.1
EBITDA margin 18.6 18.3 20.1 18.1 18.5 20.4
EBIT margin 15.9 15.5 17.2 15.1 15.5 17.1
Net profit margin (%) 12.2 12.3 13.9 12.4 12.1 13.5
Effective tax rate (%) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.6

17
Exhibit 2: Key changes to estimates, LTTS (including SWC), March fiscal year-ends, 2025-27E (Rs mn)
New Old Change (%)
2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E
Revenues 107,210 128,346 143,726 104,664 117,095 132,308 2.4 9.6 8.6
EBITDA (before Fx gain/(loss)) 19,702 23,490 26,641 19,212 21,791 24,629 2.6 7.8 8.2
EBIT (before Fx gain/(loss)) 16,571 19,949 22,918 16,199 18,963 21,610 2.3 5.2 6.1
Net profit 12,944 15,470 17,953 13,019 15,359 17,400 (0.6) 0.7 3.2
EPS (Rs/ share) 122.6 146.5 170.1 123.3 145.5 164.8 (0.6) 0.7 3.2
Revenues (US$ mn) 1,266 1,483 1,643 1,249 1,382 1,547 1.4 7.3 6.1
US$ revenue growth (%) 8.8 17.1 10.8 7.3 10.7 12.0
Revenue growth (c/c, %) 9.8 18.1 10.8 7.2 10.7 12.0
Revenue growth (organic c/c, %) 7.8 12.2 10.8 7.2 10.7 12.0
EBITDA margin (before Fx gain/(loss)) (%) 18.4 18.3 18.5 18.4 18.6 18.6 2 bps -31 bps -8 bps
EBIT margin (before Fx gain/(loss)) (%) 15.5 15.5 15.9 15.5 16.2 16.3 -2 bps -65 bps -39 bps
Net profit margin (%) 12.1 12.1 12.5 12.4 13.1 13.2
Forex gains/(loss) 126 338 411 574 864 774 (78.0) (60.8) (46.9)
Exchange rate (Rs/US$) 84.7 86.5 87.5 83.8 84.8 85.5 1.0 2.1 2.3
Exhibit 3: Segmental revenue growth across geographies, verticals and top clients (Dec 2024)
Revenues Growth (%) Contribution to C/C growth (%)
US$mn qoq yoy revenues (%) qoq yoy
Total revenues 312 1.7 7.3 100 3.1 8.7
Geographical split of revenues
North America 161 (0.2) 1.2 51.5 (0.1)
Europe 57 0.6 17.6 18.2 5.0
India 71 5.4 13.3 22.7 7.7
ROW 24 7.3 11.7 7.6 8.1
Vertical split of revenues
Mobility 101 (7.2) 4.7 32.4 (5.2)
Sustainability 97 3.0 7.3 31.2 4.0
Hi-Tech 114 9.8 9.7 36.4 11.1
Revenues by location
Onsite 129 1.0 7.6 41.4
Offshore 183 2.2 7.1 58.6
Revenues by project type
Fixed price 129 11.7 14.8 41.2
T&M 183 (4.3) 2.6 58.8
Exhibit 4: LTTS—key assumptions, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-27E

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
INR/USD rate 71.5 74.0 74.6 81.0 82.9 84.7 86.5 87.5
Revenues (US$ mn) 786 737 880 990 1,164 1,266 1,483 1,643
% growth 8.7 (6.3) 19.5 12.4 17.6 8.8 17.1 10.8
C/c revenue growth (%) 9.3 (6.8) 18.3 15.8 17.8 9.8 18.1 10.8
C/c revenue growth (organic %) 9.3 (9.2) 18.3 15.8 5.4 7.8 12.2 10.8
EBITDA margin (%) 19.8 18.5 21.5 21.4 19.9 18.4 18.3 18.5
EBIT margin (%) 16.5 14.5 18.3 18.5 17.1 15.5 15.5 15.9
Headcount 15,667 15,335 19,534 20,878 22,392 24,360 26,428 28,825
Headcount addition 1,633 (332) 4,199 1,344 1,514 1,968 2,068 2,397
Blended pricing change (US$, %) (4.8) (1.5) 2.1 (0.1) 7.1 3.9 3.5 0.2

18
Strong deal wins with a healthy mix of US$50 mn, US$35 mn and US$25 mn+ TCV deals
Exhibit 5: Trend in number of large deal wins with TCV in excess of US$10 mn, Sep-20-Dec-24
# of US$10 mn+ deals

9
8
8
7 7 7
7
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
6
5 5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
-
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Sep-22
Sep-21
Dec-21
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-23
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-24
Note: SWC deals included in FY2024.
Exhibit 6: Revenue growth trend (c/c yoy), Jun-18-Dec-24 (%)
c/c yoy growth rate (%)

33.2
40
29.5
25.2
22.3
30
20.0
19.9
19.5
19.4
18.6
18.1
15.2
13.5
12.1
11.6
20
11.0
10.0
8.7
7.5
6.3
6.3
6.1
3.4
10
(0.6)
1.4
(5.2)
(10.6)
(10.9)
(10)
(20)
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Jun-19
Jun-24
Jun-18
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Dec-21
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24
Mar-23
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-24
Note: c/c revenue growth from 1QFY24 includes SWC in the base quarter.

IT Services
8
10
16
12
14
18
20
26
28
30
32
34
36
Mar-17 16.2 Mar-17 32.8

Jun-17 13.8 Jun-17 29.1
Sep-17 13.2 Sep-17 28.5
Dec-17 13.6 Dec-17 28.9
Note: Ex-SWC till FY2023.

Mar-18 12.1 Mar-18 28.2
Jun-18 13.6 Jun-18 30.6
Sep-18 13.0 Sep-18 31.0
Dec-18 11.3 Dec-18 29.6
Mar-19 13.2 Mar-19 31.7

Jun-19 12.7 Jun-19 32.9
Sep-19 12.1 Sep-19 32.3
Dec-19 12.7 Dec-19 32.8
Gross margin declined by 30 bps qoq at 29.0%
Mar-20 15.0 Mar-20 33.5

Jun-20 10.9 Jun-20 26.8
Exhibit 7: Gross margin trend, Mar-17-Dec-24 (%)
Sep-20 12.4 Sep-20 30.1

Dec-20 11.1 Dec-20 30.8
Mar-21 11.9 Mar-21 32.3
SG&A (as % of sales) decreased to 10.3% (down 90 bps qoq)
Jun-21 12.4 Exhibit 8: SG&A expense trend, as a % revenues, Mar-17-Dec-24 Jun-21 33.4
Sep-21 11.6 Sep-21 33.3
Gross margin (%)
Dec-21 12.0 Dec-21 33.7

SG&A as a % of revenues
Mar-22 11.3 Mar-22 33.0

Jun-22 11.6 Jun-22 33.0
Sep-22 11.0 Sep-22 32.1
Dec-22 11.5 Dec-22 33.0
Mar-23 11.0 Mar-23 32.5
Jun-23 10.4 Jun-23 30.0
Sep-23 8.1 Sep-23 28.0
Dec-23 9.1 Dec-23 29.2
Mar-24 9.1 Mar-24 28.9
Jun-24 10.8 Jun-24 29.3
Sep-24 11.2 Sep-24 29.3
Dec-24 10.3 Dec-24 29.0
India Research
19
20
Exhibit 9: Trend in CFO as a % of net profit, Jun-18-Dec-24
CFO as a % of net profit

350
290.6
300
250 205.5 206.6

185.0 191.1
200 170.3
155.4 159.2 152.9
130.4 126.0 140.5 134.2 138.6 134.8 137.1
150
104.1 92.5
89.5 80.6
100 76.3
45.1 44.0 51.7
50
(6.0) (7.1)
(20.4)
0
(50)
Jun-21
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Sep-20
Sep-24
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Dec-19
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-18
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-24
Mar-19
Mar-22
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-23
Mar-24
Note: Ex-SWC until FY2023.
Exhibit 10: Trend in FCF as a % of net profit, Jun-18-Dec-24
FCF as a % of net profit

300 271.1
250
191.1 197.8
176.4 182.8
200
150.2 148.8 153.8
150121.3 116.6 127.4 114.6 121.6 127.5
123.4 130.4
99.0
100 73.264.0
59.0
47.9
31.3 31.8 33.3
50
(13.6)
0 (34.4) (28.4)
(50)
Jun-18
Jun-22
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-23
Jun-24
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-23
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-24
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-24
Dec-18
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Mar-21
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24

21
Employee headcount declined by 1.0% qoq

Exhibit 11: Net headcount addition, Jun-19-Dec-24
Net employee addition
2,500 2,135
2,000
1,500 1,159
1,011
1,000 773 876 743
520 572 584 488 514
383
500 167 175 121
96 41
-
(2)
(500) (242) (235) (233)
(582)
(1,000) (739)
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Jun-21
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-22
Jun-23
Jun-24
Dec-21
Dec-24
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-22
Dec-23
Mar-20
Mar-23
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-24
LTM attrition increased by 10 bps on sequential basis to 14.4%

Exhibit 12: Attrition rate-LTM, Sep-15-Dec-24 (%)
Attrition rate (LTM, %)
24.1
26
23.3
23.2
22.2
24
20.4
22
18.9
20
17.5
16.7
16.5
18
15.8
15.8
15.4
14.9
14.8
14.8
14.8
14.6
14.5
14.4
15
14.3
13.9
16
13.8
13.5
13.4
13.4
13.4
14
14
13.2
13.2
12.2
12.1
14
11.9
11.4
10.8
10.7
10.7
12
10
Jun-16
Jun-21
Jun-23
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-22
Jun-24
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Mar-16
Mar-18
Mar-23
Mar-17
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-24
Dec-17
Dec-19
Dec-22
Dec-24
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-18
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-23
Exhibit 13: Segmental margin overview, Dec 2024
Change (bps)
Verticals EBITDA margin (%) QoQ YoY Revenue mix (%)
Mobility 19.2 (33) (119) 32.4
Sustainability 24.8 (64) (376) 31.2
Hi-Tech 14.7 318 (25) 36.4
Total 18.6 53 (149) 100.0

22
Exhibit 14: Key operating metrics, Dec-22-Dec-24

Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24
Revenues (US$ mn) 248 255 280 288 291 305 295 307 312
qoq growth (%) 0.4 2.9 9.8 2.9 0.9 5.0 (3.2) 3.9 1.7
Revenues (Rs mn) 20,486 20,962 23,014 23,865 24,218 25,375 24,619 25,729 26,530
Exchange rate 82.6 82.2 82.2 82.8 83.3 83.2 83.4 83.9 85.1
Revenue by verticals (%)
Mobility 35.9 34.5 32.7 33.2 33.2 32.0 35.2 35.5 32.4
Sustainability 34.5 35.3 31.5 31.3 31.2 30.0 30.0 30.8 31.2
Hi-Tech 29.5 30.2 35.8 35.5 35.6 38.1 34.8 33.7 36.4
Revenue by geographies (%) - new classification
North America 62.7 60.2 56.5 55.3 54.6 53.7 52.9 52.5 51.5
Europe 16.1 16.4 15.4 15.8 16.6 15.8 18.1 18.4 18.2
India 13.6 15.2 20.7 21.6 21.5 23.7 22.0 21.9 22.7
ROW 7.6 8.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6
Onsite-Offshore revenue mix (%)
Onsite 43.0 43.0 40.7 40.4 41.3 41.3 41.1 41.7 41.4
Offshore 57.0 57.0 59.3 59.6 58.7 58.7 58.9 58.3 58.6
Revenue by project type (%)
Fixed price 28.6 29.1 35.6 35.8 38.5 39.5 36.9 37.5 41.2
T&M 71.4 70.9 64.4 64.2 61.5 60.5 63.1 62.5 58.8
Utilization (%)
Including trainees NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Client metrics (a)
Clients billed 343 341 357 362 364 381 378 373 378
Revenue concentration (%) (a)
Top 5 clients 16.0 15.9 14.7 14.9 15.7 15.4 15.0 15.0 15.2
Top 10 clients 26.6 26.6 25.9 26.1 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.8
Top 20 clients 42.1 42.0 41.4 41.7 41.7 40.6 41.3 41.5 39.9
Client size (ttm)
> US$1 mn 158 169 181 177 175 180 177 176 183
> US$5 mn 50 52 56 55 56 58 60 60 64
> US$10 mn 25 24 32 31 31 35 31 33 34
> US$20 mn 8 9 12 12 14 12 12 13 10
> US$30 mn 2 1 3 4 4 5 6 7 7
Employee metrics
Total employees (consolidated) 21,649 22,233 23,392 23,880 23,298 23,812 23,577 23,698 23,465
Billable technical staff (excl trainees) 20,346 20,878 21,933 22,366 21,887 22,392 22,120 22,185 21,947
Sales & support 1,303 1,355 1,459 1,514 1,411 1,420 1,457 1,513 1,518
Voluntary attrition (LTM, %) 23.3 22.2 18.9 16.7 15.8 14.8 14.8 14.3 14.4
Note: Excludes SWC till Mar 2023.

23
Exhibit 15: Condensed consolidated financials for LTTS, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn), 2020-27E
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Profit model
Revenues 56,191 54,497 65,697 80,136 96,472 107,210 128,346 143,726
EBITDA 11,105 10,074 14,149 17,132 19,189 19,702 23,490 26,641
Depreciation (1,829) (2,183) (2,144) (2,314) (2,716) (3,131) (3,541) (3,723)
EBIT 9,276 7,891 12,005 14,818 16,473 16,571 19,949 22,918
Other income 1,355 1,128 618 1,353 1,571 1,588 1,263 1,638
Forex gain/(loss) 738 408 906 727 502 126 338 411
Finance cost (365) (455) (437) (460) (509) (502) (517) (532)
Pretax profits 11,004 8,972 13,092 16,438 18,037 17,784 21,034 24,435
Tax (2,778) (2,308) (3,486) (4,697) (4,975) (4,890) (5,679) (6,597)
Profit after tax 8,188 6,632 9,570 11,698 13,036 12,944 15,470 17,953
Diluted earnings per share (Rs) 77.6 62.8 90.7 110.8 123.5 122.6 146.5 170.1
Balance sheet
Total equity 27,686 34,731 41,625 49,509 53,271 60,390 68,899 78,773
Minority interest 69 101 137 180 207 156 40 (76)
Preference capital — — — — — — — —
Borrowings 303 — — — — — — —
Provisions 1,654 1,584 1,952 1,313 1,540 1,584 1,584 1,584
Other non-current liabilities 5,583 5,705 5,854 5,156 7,429 7,629 7,829 8,029
Other current liabilities 7,738 8,608 11,342 13,015 22,438 22,312 24,318 26,846
Total liabilities and equity 43,033 50,729 60,910 69,173 84,885 92,071 102,670 115,156
Cash and bank 2,440 2,327 6,742 6,899 13,905 9,554 14,893 22,685
Fixed assets 5,589 6,260 6,397 6,537 9,878 8,991 8,374 7,829
Intangible including goodwill 6,146 6,564 6,430 6,403 6,248 15,548 15,041 14,567
Capital work-in-progress 87 119 99 65 131 131 131 131
Receivables 17,317 14,761 19,569 20,498 28,731 30,841 35,163 39,377
Investments 6,420 15,149 14,779 22,840 14,927 14,927 14,927 14,927
Other assets 5,034 5,549 6,894 5,931 11,065 12,079 14,141 15,641
Total assets 43,033 50,729 60,910 69,173 84,885 92,071 102,670 115,156
Free cash flow
Operating cash flow, excl. working capital 10,668 9,027 11,514 14,239 15,484 15,015 18,149 20,454
Working capital changes (4,287) 4,245 (1,452) (1,188) (557) (3,284) (4,378) (3,185)
Capital expenditure (1,511) (756) (1,555) (1,726) (2,419) (2,304) (2,417) (2,705)
Acquisitions (436) (795) — — (7,978) (9,240) — —
Other income (671) (100) 28 591 644 1,086 746 1,106
Free cash flow 3,763 11,621 8,535 11,916 5,174 1,274 12,101 15,671
Key ratios and assumptions
Revenue growth (US$ terms) (%) 8.7 (6.3) 19.5 12.4 17.6 8.8 17.1 10.8
Re/US$ rate 71.5 74.0 74.6 81.0 82.9 84.7 86.5 87.5
EBITDA margin (%) 19.8 18.5 21.5 21.4 19.9 18.4 18.3 18.5
EBIT margin (%) 16.5 14.5 18.3 18.5 17.1 15.5 15.5 15.9
RoAE 31.1 21.2 25.0 25.6 25.3 22.7 23.9 24.3
RoACE 31.3 21.3 27.2 28.9 28.5 25.7 27.5 28.0

UPDATE
Economy
External Sector
January 15, 2025
Goods trade deficit narrows back in December Summary of key macro metrics for India
2023 2024 2025E 2026E
Goods trade deficit fell to US$21.9 bn in December as exports picked up and Real economy
imports fell from the record high in November. Services trade surplus was Real GDP growth (%) 7.0 8.2 6.1 6.4
Nominal GDP growth (%) 14.2 9.6 10.3 10.9
stable at US$15.2 bn. We retain our FY2025E-26E CAD/GDP at 1.3% and 1.5%
CPI Inflation (avg., %) 6.7 5.4 4.8 4.2
with BOP surplus of US$5.1 bn in FY2025E and BOP deficit of US$14.2 bn in Public finance
FY2026E. We revise our FY2026E average USD-INR to 87.6 (earlier: 86.5). Center's GFD/GDP (%) 6.4 5.6 4.6 4.5
Monetary policy
Repo Rate (%, eop) 6.50 6.50 6.25 5.75
Exports picked up in December from last month SDF Rate (%, eop) 6.25 6.25 6.00 5.25
Exports fell by 1% yoy in December to US$38.0 bn even as it picked up from CRR (%, eop) 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0
External sector
US$32.1 bn in November (see Exhibits 1-2). Oil exports increased to US$4.9 bn Current Account Balance (% of GDP) (2.0) (0.7) (1.3) (1.5)
(November: US$3.7 bn) with 9MFY25 oil exports lower than 9MFY24. Non-oil Brent crude oil price (avg., USD/bbl) 95.4 82.9 80.0 80.0
USD/INR (avg.) 80.3 82.8 84.6 86.7
exports were at US$33.1 bn, driven by engineering and electronic goods
(November: US$28.4 bn) (see Exhibits 3-5). Non-oil exports growth in 9MFY25
was led by electronic goods, engineering goods and textiles (see Exhibits 6-7). Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, RBI, Kotak Economics Research estimates
Imports moderate in December

Imports in December rose 4.9% yoy to US$60 bn (November revised to US$65bn
Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933
Quick Numbers
from US$70 bn), driven by gold, machinery and electronic goods (see Exhibits
1-2). Oil imports were at US$15.3 bn (November: US$16.1 bn), while non-oil
imports were at US$44.7 bn (November: US$48.8 bn) (see Exhibits 3-5). Non-oil December goods exports at US$38.0 bn (declined by
1.0% yoy); December goods imports at US$60 bn
imports growth in 8MFY25 was led by electronic goods, gold and machinery (growth of 4.9% yoy)
(see Exhibits 6-7). Trade deficit for December was at US$21.9 bn and at US$212
bn for 9MFY25 (9MFY24: US$190 bn). November goods trade deficit at US$21.9 bn
FYTD25 gold imports data revised down 8MFY25 2025 gold imports revised down by US$12 bn
Gold imports for 8MFY25 was revised down by 132 tons possibly due to data December services trade surplus at US$15.2 bn;
collation issues. This lowered gold imports by US$12 bn (revised down to November print revised down by US$3.2 bn
US$37.4 bn from US$49 bn). Of this, November gold imports were revised down
We estimate FY2025/26 CAD/GDP at 1.3% and 1.5%
by US$5 bn to US$9.8 bn (revised down by 50 tons to 117 tons). 9MFY25 gold
imports was at US$42 bn (9MFY24: US$35.9 bn) (see Exhibit 8).
We estimate USD-INR for FY2025/26 at 84.6 and 87.6,
respectively
Services trade surplus remains steady
Services trade surplus in December was at US$15.2 bn (November revised
down to US$14.8 bn from US$18 bn) (see Exhibit 9). For 9MFY25, the services
trade surplus was at US$131 bn (9MFY24: US$104.1 bn).
We retain FY2025E/26E CAD/GDP at 1.3%/1.5%; revise USD-INR estimate

We retain our FY2025/26 CAD/GDP estimate at 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively,
with BOP surplus of US$5.1 bn in FY2025E and BOP deficit of US$14.2 bn in
FY2026E (see Exhibit 10). With the RBI’s renewed tolerance for INR
depreciation, we revise our USD-INR forecasts to average 84.6 in FY2025E and Related Research
to 86.7 in FY2026E. We pencil in USD-INR in the range of 86-89 for → Comfortable external balance in 1HFY25;
CY2025/FY2026 (see Exhibit 11). The adverse risks to India’s external sector weaker in 2HFY25
→ November trade deficit widens on gold import
balance remain from policy uncertainties after the new US administration takes
→ spike
Oil and gold imports widen trade deficit
charge, and consequent potential retaliatory measures, especially by China.
Full sector coverage on KINSITE
Suvodeep Rakshit Upasna Bhardwaj Harsh Doshi Swarupjit Palit

25
Exports spiked up in December, imports normalize in December

Trend in imports and exports (US$ bn)
80
Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn)
50
70 65
45 42 4142 63
61 61 62 64 61 62 63 63
40 39 38 5857 60
38 37 38 3837 57 57
40 35 35 36 35 35 3434
60 54 5453 54 55 54 5754 5657 54
35353434 343334 34 53
35 32 32 49
50
30
25 40
20 30
15
20
10
5 10
0
0
Mar 23
Mar 24
Dec 23
Dec 22
Dec 24
Jan 24
Jan 23
May 23
Nov 22
Nov 23
May 24
Oct 22
Nov 24
Oct 23
Oct 24
Feb 23
Feb 24
Jul 24
Apr 23
Jul 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jun 24
Sep 22
Aug 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Sep 24
Mar 23
Mar 24
Dec 22
Dec 23
Dec 24
Feb 23
Feb 24
Nov 22
May 23
May 24
Oct 22
Apr 23
Oct 23
Nov 23
Apr 24
Oct 24
Nov 24
Jan 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Jul 24
Jun 23
Jun 24
Sep 24
Sep 22
Sep 23
Aug 23
Aug 24
Source: CEIC, Kotak Economics Research
Exports contract over last year, imports grew in December

Trend in export growth and import growth (%)
Exports growth (%, yoy) Imports growth (%, yoy)

40
30
20
10
(10)
(20)
Feb-23
Feb-24
Apr-23
Apr-24
Oct-23
Oct-24
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
Jun-23
Mar-23
Mar-24
Sep-23
Sep-24
Aug-23
Dec-23
Aug-24
Dec-24
Dec-22
Nov-23
Nov-24
May-23
May-24
Economy
India Research
26
Non-oil exports increased from November levels, non-oil imports fell in December
Trend in non-oil imports and non-oil exports (US$ bn)
Non-oil exports (USD bn) Non-oil imports (USD bn)

40 36
35 55 52
34 33 33 49
35 32 31 46 48
50 46 45 45
30 29 30292930 43 44 43
30 28 28 28292828292828 29 28 28 45 424142 424142 40 4042 41 4241 42
27 26 38 38
25 40 3737 35
25 35
20 30
25
15 20
10 15
10
5 5
0 0
Mar 23
Mar 24
May 23
Nov 22
Nov 23
May 24
Nov 24
Jul 23
Dec 24
Dec 22
Dec 23
Jul 24
Oct 22
Jan 23
Feb 23
Oct 23
Jan 24
Feb 24
Apr 23
Apr 24
Oct 24
Jun 23
Jun 24
Sep 22
Aug 23
Sep 23
Sep 24
Aug 24
Mar 23
Mar 24
Nov 22
May 24
Nov 24
May 23
Nov 23
Jan 24
Jan 23
Dec 22
Dec 23
Dec 24
Jul 23
Jul 24
Oct 22
Feb 23
Feb 24
Oct 24
Oct 23
Apr 23
Apr 24
Jun 24
Sep 22
Aug 23
Jun 23
Sep 23
Sep 24
Aug 24
Both non-oil exports and imports accelerated in December

Trend in non-oil export growth and non-oil import growth (%)
Non-oil export growth (%, yoy) Non-oil import growth (%, yoy)
40
30
20
10
(10)
(20)
Feb-23
Feb-24
Apr-23
Oct-23
Apr-24
Oct-24
Jul-24
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
Jun-23
Jun-24
Mar-23
Sep-23
Mar-24
Sep-24
Aug-23
Aug-24
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-24
May-23
May-24
Nov-23
Nov-24
Economy
India Research
27
Trade deficit normalized in December from November highs

Trend in exports, imports and trade balance (US$ bn)
Dec-24 / Dec-24 /
Dec-24 Nov-24 Dec-23 Dec-23 (%) Nov-24 (%)
Exports 38.0 32.1 38.4 (1.0) 18
Imports 60.0 65.0 57.2 4.9 (7.7)
Trade balance (21.9) (32.8) (18.8)
Oil exports 4.9 3.7 6.9 (29) 33
Oil imports 15.3 16.1 14.9 2.2 (5.2)
Oil trade balance (10.4) (12.4) (8.1)
Non-oil exports 33.1 28.4 31.5 5.0 17
Non-oil imports 44.7 48.8 42.2 5.9 (8.5)
Non-oil trade balance (11.6) (20.4) (10.7)
Non-oil non-electronics exports 29.5 24.9 28.9 2.3 18
Non-oil non-electronics imports 36.3 41.2 34.6 5.0 (11.8)
Non-oil non-electronics trade balance (6.8) (16.3) (5.7)
Non-oil non-gems & jewelry exports 31.0 26.3 28.6 8.2 18
Non-oil non-gems & jewelry imports 38.3 37.4 36.9 3.9 2.4
Non-oil non-gems & jewelry trade balance (7.3) (11.0) (8.3)
Electronic goods imports increase in December, engineering goods drives exports increase
Comparison of exports and imports (US$ bn)
Dec-24 / Dec-24 / Dec-24 / Dec-24 /
Dec-24 Nov-24 Dec-23 Dec-23 (%) Nov-24 (%) Dec-24 Nov-24 Dec-23 Dec-23 (%) Nov-24 (%)
Exports 38.0 32.1 38.4 (1.0) 18 Imports 60.0 65.0 57.2 4.9 (7.7)
Oil exports 4.9 3.7 6.9 (29) 33 Oil imports 15.3 16.1 14.9 2.2 (5.2)
Non-oil exports 33.1 28.4 31.5 5.0 17 Non-oil imports 44.7 48.8 42.2 5.9 (8.5)
Engineering goods 10.8 8.9 10.0 8.3 22 Electronic Goods 8.3 7.6 7.6 9.6 9.5
Electronic goods 3.6 3.5 2.6 35 3.2 Gold 4.7 9.8 3.0 55 (52)
Drugs and pharmaceuticals 2.5 2.2 2.5 0.6 15 Machinery 4.7 4.5 4.2 11.7 4.6
Organic and inorganic chemicals 2.5 2.0 2.5 (2.9) 23 Transport equipment 2.8 2.6 2.8 (1.0) 7.4
Gems and jewelry 2.1 2.1 2.9 (27) 3.1 Organic and inorganic chemicals 2.3 2.3 2.2 7.6 0.9
RMG of all textiles 1.5 1.1 1.3 12.9 30 Coal, coke, and briquettes 2.0 2.4 3.5 (43) (18)
Rice 1.4 1.1 0.9 64 25 Iron and steel 1.9 1.8 2.3 (19) 5.0
Cotton yarn, fabrics,etc. 1.1 0.9 0.9 12.0 20 Non ferrous metals 1.8 2.1 1.8 (0.5) (17)
Plastic and linoleum 0.8 0.7 0.7 6.0 11.7 Artificial resins, plastic materials, etc. 1.8 1.9 1.9 (3.8) (7.0)
Marine products 0.7 0.8 0.6 16 (4.7) Vegetable oils 1.3 1.9 1.1 19 (30)
Others 6.1 5.2 6.5 (5.1) 18 Others 13.1 11.9 11.9 10.3 10.5
Economy
India Research
28
Imports growth continues to outpace exports growth in FYTD25 due to gold and electronic goods imports
Comparison of exports and imports (US$ bn)
FYTD25/ FYTD25/
9MFY25 9MFY24 FYTD24 (%) 9MFY25 9MFY24 FYTD24 (%)
Exports 321.8 316.6 1.6 Imports 533.6 506.4 5.4
Petroleum products 49.1 61.9 (21) Petroleum crude and products 138.5 130.0 6.6
Non-oil exports 272.7 254.7 7.1 Non-oil imports 395.1 376.4 5.0
Engineering Goods 87.4 79.3 10.1 Electronic Goods 72.3 65.4 10.4
Electronic Goods 26.1 20.3 29 Gold 42.1 36.0 17
Gems and jewelry 21.4 24.3 (12.1) Machinery 39.8 36.9 7.9
Drugs and Pharmaceuticals 21.7 20.4 6.4 Coal, coke, and briquettes 24.1 29.3 (18)
Organic and Inorganic Chemicals 21.3 20.2 5.1 Organic and Inorganic Chemicals 21.8 20.7 5.3
RMG of all textiles 11.3 10.1 11.6 Transport Equipment 21.6 21.5 0.5
Cotton yarn, fabrics,etc. 8.9 8.7 2.8 Non Ferrous Metals 19.1 16.4 16
Rice 8.7 7.3 19 Artificial resins, plastic materials, etc. 17.4 17.2 1.3
Plastic and Linoleum 6.7 5.9 12.9 Iron and Steel 17.1 18.0 (5.2)
Marine Products 5.7 5.9 (3.0) Pearls, precious/semi-precious stones 13.2 17.4 (24)
Others 53.6 52.2 2.5 Others 106.6 97.6 9.2
Gold imports data revised, November sees record cuts

Revision in gold imports data (US$ bn)
Gold imports (old, US$ bn) Gold imports (revised, US$ bn)
16
14
12
10
0
Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24
Economy
India Research
29
Services surplus steady in December

Trend in services exports and imports (US$ bn)
Services trade balance Service exports Service imports

40
35
30
25
20
15
15 16 16 16 17
14 15 14 15 14 15 15
10
12
13 12
12
13 12 13
12 11 12 12 14 13 13 13 13 14
11 10 10 11 10 11
5 8 8
Feb-23
Feb-24
Feb-22
Apr-22
Apr-24
Jun-22
Apr-23
Jun-23
Jun-24
Oct-24
Oct-22
Oct-23
Aug-23
Aug-22
Aug-24
Dec-22
Dec-21
Dec-23
Dec-24
Economy
India Research
30
We expect CAD/GDP at 1.5% in FY2026E

India's balance of payments, March fiscal year-ends, 2019-26E (US$ bn)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E

Current account balance (57.3) (24.7) 23.9 (38.8) (67.1) (26.1) (48.9) (62.2)
GDP 2,705 2,835 2,674 3,167 3,352 3,567 3,831 4,093
CAB/GDP (%) (2.1) (0.9) 0.9 (1.2) (2.0) (0.7) (1.3) (1.5)
Trade balance (180) (158) (102) (189) (265) (245) (293) (317)
Trade balance/GDP (%) (6.7) (5.6) (3.8) (6.0) (7.9) (6.9) (7.6) (7.8)
- Exports 337 320 296 429 456 441 426 421
- oil exports 47 41 26 67 97 84 62 63
- non-oil exports 291 279 270 362 359 357 365 358
- Imports 518 478 398 619 721 686 720 738
- oil imports 141 131 83 162 209 179 190 195
- non-oil imports 377 347 316 457 512 508 530 543
- gold imports 33 28 35 46 35 46 55 53
Invisibles (net) 123 133 126 151 198 219 244 255
- Services 82 85 89 108 143 163 180 185
- software 78 85 90 110 131 142 157 161
- non-software 4 0.3 (1) (2) 12 21 23 24
- Transfers 70 75 73 80 101 106 112 116
- Income (net) (29) (27) (36) (37) (46) (50) (48) (46)
Capital account 54 83 64 86 59 90 54 48
Capital account/GDP (%) 2.0 2.9 2.4 2.7 1.8 2.5 1.4 1.2
Foreign investment 30 44 80 22 23 54 23 24
- FDI 31 43 44 39 28 10 8 12
- FPI (1) 1 36 (17) (5) 44 15 12
- Equities 3 (0) 39 (16) (6) 25 3 5
- Debt (4) 1 (0) 2 1 19 12 7
Banking capital 7 (5) (21) 7 21 41 14 14
- NRI deposits 10 9 7 3 9 15 16 15
Short-term credit 2 (1) (4) 20 7 (1) 6 4
ECBs 10 23 (0) 8 (4) (0) 6 4
External assistance 3 4 11 5 6 7 5 2
Other capital account items 1 18 (2) 24 7 (12) — —
E&O (0) 1 (0) — (1) 0 — —
Overall balance (3.3) 59.5 87.3 47.5 (9.1) 63.7 5.1 (14.2)
Memo items
Average USD/INR 69.9 70.9 74.2 74.5 80.3 82.8 84.6 87.6
Average Brent (US$/bbl) 70.0 60.9 44.8 80.0 95.4 82.9 80.0 80.0
Source: RBI, Kotak Economic Research estimates
Economy
India Research
31
We expect USD-INR within 86-89 through rest of CY2025E/FY2026E

Trend and estimates of average INR and major currencies against US$, March fiscal year-ends (X)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E

Average Rate
USDINR 70.9 74.2 74.5 80.4 82.8 84.6 87.6
EURUSD 1.11 1.14 1.16 1.04 1.08 1.07 1.04
GBPUSD 1.27 1.31 1.37 1.21 1.26 1.26 1.20
USDJPY 108.7 106.0 112.4 135.6 144.6 153.6 152.9
Depreciation (-)/appreciation (+) against USD (%)
INR (1.4) (4.5) (0.4) (7.3) (2.9) (2.1) (3.5)
EUR (4.1) 2.8 1.7 (10.3) 4.0 (1.7) (2.6)
GBP (3.2) 2.9 4.5 (11.7) 4.2 0.5 (5.2)
JPY 1.9 2.5 (5.6) (17.1) (6.2) (5.8) 0.5
Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Economic Research estimates
Economy
India Research
32
December 2024: Results calendar

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan
Anand Rathi Wealth HDFC AMC Authum Investment Alok Industries Aether Industries Can Fin Homes
Angel One Network 18 Media Bank of Maharashtra Axis Bank ICICI Lombard CPCL
HCL Technologies Shoppers Stop CEAT Hatsun Agro Indian Hotels DCM Shriram
Himadri Special HDFC Life Insurance Havells India Jio Financial Kotak Mahindra Bank
L&T Technology Services Infosys Rallis India RBL Bank
Maharashtra Scooters LTIMindtree Ramkrishna Forg.
Oracle Financial Mastek SBI Life Insurance
Punjab & Sind Bank Metro Brands Supreme Petrochem
Reliance Industries Tech Mahindra
Sterling & Wilson Wipro
20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan
APL Apollo Tubes Aditya Birla Real Estate BPCL Adani Green Energy Alkyl Amines ICICI Bank
Central Bank of India Cyient DLM Coforge Capri Global Atul IDFC Bank
Dixon Technolgoies Dalmia Bharat Go Digit General Cyient AU Small Finance Bank J K Cement
ICICI Securities ICICI Prudential Life Gravita India Dr Reddy's Laboratories CreditAccess Gramin SBFC
IDBI Bank Indiamart HDFC Bank HPCL Godrej Consumer Products Yes Bank
Indian Overseas Bank KEI Industries Hindustan Unilever IEX Granules India
IRFC PNB Housing HUDCO Indus Towers Intellect Design
J&K Bank Tanla Platforms Laxmi Organic KFin Technologies Jindal Saw
L&T Finance Tata Technologies Nuvoco Vistas Corp. Mankind Pharma JSW Steel
MCX India Persistent Systems Mphasis Laurus Labs
MRPL Pidilite Industries Nippon AMC LMW
Newgen Software Polycab Sona BLW Precision Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Oberoi Realty Tata Communications Syngene International Trident
One 97 Communications Vardhman Textiles Tejas Networks
Sunteck Realty Zensar Technologies Ujjivan Small Finance Bank
Supreme Industries UltraTech Cement
Zomato United Spirits
27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb
Bajaj Housing Finance Apar Industries Bajaj Finance Bajaj Finserv Cholamandalam
Coal India Bajaj Auto Blue Dart Expres Bajaj Holdings & Investment Jyothy Laboratories
Emami BHEL Blue Star Bharat Electronics Mahindra Holidays
Maharashtra Seamless Bosch CAMS Biocon Mahindra Lifespace Developers
Petronet LNG Cipla Craftsman Automation Dabur India Marico
Sumitomo Chemical Exide Industries KPIT Technologies Kalyan Jewellers Medplus Health Services
GE Shipping Co. Maruti Suzuki Navin Fluorine Nestle India
IOCL Radico Khaitan Shree Cement ONGC
JM Financial Tata Motors Poonawalla Fincorp
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial TeamLease Services
Piramal Pharma Westlife Foodworld
Shyam Metalics
Star Health and Allied Insurance
TTK Prestige
TVS Holdings
TVS Motor
UTI AMC
V-Guard Industries
3-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb 7-Feb 8-Feb
Aditya Birla Capital Asian Paints Cummins India Motherson Sumi Wiring Akzo Nobel India Amara Raja Energy & Mobility
Castrol India BASF India Kansai Nerolac Cholamandalam Financial
Max Financial Services Page Industries Latent View
Tata Power Timken
Thermax
Titan Company
Bata India Berger Paints Endurance Technologies Hindalco Industries
CRISIL HEG P&G Health United Breweries
Esab India P&G Hygiene Suven Pharma
Escorts Kubota
Gillette India
GlaxoSmithkline Pharma
Indigo Paints
ABB
Source: BSE, NSE, Kotak Institutional Equities
India Research
33
Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 15-Jan-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2025E 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Automobiles & Components
Amara Raja Energy & Mobility SELL 1,050 1,050 (0) 192 2.2 183 53 63 69 20 17 15 2.5 2.2 2.0 11 10 9 14 14 14 0.5 0.6 0.7 9 4
Apollo Tyres SELL 455 400 (12) 289 3.3 638 21 26 30 21 17 15 2.0 1.8 1.7 8 7 6 9 11 11 1.3 1.5 1.5 8 3
Ashok Leyland ADD 207 235 14 607 7.0 2,936 10 11 12 21 19 17 5.6 4.7 4.2 13 11 10 29 27 26 1.9 2.1 2.9 20 9
Bajaj Auto SELL 8,578 7,225 (16) 2,395 28 279 314 336 374 27 26 23 9.0 8.4 7.8 21 19 17 34 34 35 2.9 3.1 3.5 70 35
Balkrishna Industries SELL 2,680 2,375 (11) 518 6.0 193 82 90 102 33 30 26 5.1 4.5 4.0 20 17 15 17 16 16 0.7 0.7 0.8 6 3
Bharat Forge SELL 1,184 1,100 (7) 566 6.6 478 27 35 43 43 34 28 7.0 6.1 5.2 21 19 16 17 19 20 0.6 0.6 0.7 16 9
CEAT SELL 3,056 2,715 (11) 124 1.4 40 137 165 171 22 19 18 2.8 2.5 2.3 9 8 8 13 14 13 1.1 1.3 1.4 10 3
CIE Automotive SELL 463 450 (3) 176 2.0 378 23 25 28 21 18 17 2.6 2.4 2.2 12 11 10 13 14 14 1.2 1.4 1.5 2 1
Eicher Motors SELL 5,082 3,500 (31) 1,393 16.1 272 170 174 190 30 29 27 7.6 6.6 5.8 27 25 22 27 24 23 1.1 1.2 1.3 30 16
Endurance Technologies SELL 2,076 1,875 (10) 292 3.4 141 56 66 74 37 31 28 5.2 4.6 4.1 19 17 15 14 15 15 0.6 0.7 0.8 4 2
Escorts Kubota SELL 3,479 3,000 (14) 389 4.5 112 114 121 137 31 29 25 3.7 3.3 3.0 26 23 20 12 12 12 0.5 0.5 0.6 10 3
Exide Industries SELL 382 300 (21) 325 3.8 850 14 16 17 27 24 22 2.3 2.1 2.0 16 14 13 9 9 9 0.7 0.7 0.7 18 6
Hero Motocorp SELL 4,112 3,800 (8) 822 9.5 200 226 241 262 18 17 16 4.3 4.0 3.7 12 11 10 24 24 24 3.8 4.1 4.5 38 19
Hyundai Motor ADD 1,796 2,025 13 1,459 16.9 813 72 78 91 25 23 20 9.5 7.6 6.2 15 13 11 38 33 31 0.8 1.7 2.0 —
Mahindra & Mahindra BUY 2,960 3,400 15 3,681 42.6 1,159 103 114 126 29 26 24 5.5 4.7 4.0 21 19 17 21 19 18 0.5 0.6 0.6 114 62
Maruti Suzuki REDUCE 11,947 10,800 (10) 3,756 43.5 314 470 500 541 25 24 22 4.1 3.7 3.4 17 16 14 17 16 16 1.6 1.7 1.8 68 35
MRF SELL 114,227 102,500 (10) 484 5.6 4 4,734 5,327 5,958 24 21 19 2.6 2.3 2.1 11 9 8 11 11 12 0.2 0.2 0.3 10 4
Ola Electric REDUCE 73 70 (4) 323 3.7 4,411 (3) (3) (2) NM NM NM 5.2 6.3 7.5 NM NM NM NM NM NM 0.0 0.0 0.0 56 14
Samvardhana Motherson REDUCE 149 170 14 1,051 12.2 7,036 6 6 7 27 24 20 3.1 2.8 2.5 10 10 9 13 12 13 0.6 0.6 0.7 32 16
Schaeffler India REDUCE 3,230 3,700 15 505 5.8 156 60 69 80 54 47 40 9.5 8.5 7.6 34 30 25 19 19 20 0.1 0.0 0.0 3 2
SKF ADD 4,215 5,000 19 208 2.4 49 119 143 161 35 30 26 6.9 6.1 5.4 26 21 18 20 21 21 1.1 1.3 1.4 2 1
Sona BLW Precision ADD 573 700 22 356 4.1 618 11 14 16 53 41 35 6.2 5.6 5.0 30 24 21 15 14 15 0.4 0.6 0.7 15 9
Tata Motors ADD 764 925 21 2,811 32.5 3,677 57 69 86 13 11 9 2.7 2.2 1.9 6 5 4 22 22 23 0.9 1.3 2.0 128 52
Timken ADD 2,815 3,800 35 212 2.5 75 57 73 90 50 39 31 7.5 6.3 5.3 34 26 21 16 18 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
TVS Motor SELL 2,251 1,850 (18) 1,069 12.4 475 52 60 71 43 37 32 14.1 11.2 9.0 27 23 20 32 33 31 0.6 0.7 0.8 22 11
Uno Minda SELL 1,055 925 (12) 605 7.0 572 17 19 21 63 55 49 10.3 8.8 7.5 33 29 26 16 16 15 0.2 0.2 0.3 10 5
Varroc Engineering SELL 577 460 (20) 88 1.0 153 16 26 32 37 22 18 5.0 4.1 3.3 12 10 8 14 18 19 — — — 4 2
Automobiles & Components Cautious 24,697 285.9 26.0 23.0 20.0 4.7 4.2 3.6 14.0 12.4 10.9 18.2 18.1 18.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 707 323
Banks
AU Small Finance Bank ADD 587 675 15 437 5.1 744 30 42 59 19 14 10 2.7 2.2 1.8 — — — 15 17 20 — — — 17 8
Axis Bank BUY 1,027 1,500 46 3,178 36.8 3,087 81 90 103 13 11 10 1.9 1.6 1.5 — — — 15 15 15 1.2 1.3 1.5 109 66
Bandhan Bank BUY 148 250 69 239 2.8 1,611 25 29 33 6 5 5 1.0 0.9 0.8 — — — 17 17 17 2.7 3.1 3.5 22 9
Bank of Baroda ADD 222 270 22 1,148 13.3 5,178 31 32 34 7 7 7 1.0 0.9 0.9 — — — 14 13 12 2.9 2.9 3.1 36 15
Canara Bank REDUCE 95 110 16 859 9.9 9,071 16 17 17 6 6 6 1.0 0.9 0.8 — — — 16 15 13 3.5 3.6 3.6 28 11
City Union Bank ADD 169 170 1 125 1.4 741 15 17 19 11 10 9 1.4 1.3 1.1 — — — 12 13 13 1.4 1.6 1.8 10 4
DCB Bank BUY 114 160 41 36 0.4 313 19 22 31 6 5 4 0.7 0.7 0.6 — — — 11 12 14 1.6 2.2 3.6 2 1
Equitas Small Finance Bank BUY 71 85 20 81 0.9 1,139 3 6 10 27 11 7 1.4 1.2 1.1 — — — 5 11 16 — — — 3 2
Federal Bank BUY 194 225 16 476 5.5 2,435 16 17 20 12 12 10 1.5 1.4 1.2 — — — 12 12 13 1.2 1.3 1.6 26 12
HDFC Bank BUY 1,643 1,900 16 12,567 145.5 7,597 88 109 124 19 15 13 2.6 2.3 2.0 — — — 14 16 16 1.3 1.6 1.8 326 200
ICICI Bank BUY 1,238 1,450 17 8,742 101.2 7,023 62 65 72 20 19 17 3.2 2.9 2.5 — — — 17 16 15 1.0 1.1 1.2 185 113
IndusInd Bank BUY 962 1,650 71 750 8.7 778 91 125 140 11 8 7 1.1 1.0 0.9 — — — 11 13 13 1.4 1.9 2.1 68 35
Karur Vysya Bank BUY 212 250 18 170 2.0 804 22 23 26 10 9 8 1.5 1.4 1.2 — — — 17 16 16 2.7 2.8 3.2 6 3
Punjab National Bank ADD 98 110 12 1,129 13.1 11,011 14 13 13 7 8 8 1.0 0.9 0.8 — — — 13 11 10 2.8 2.6 2.6 44 17
SBI Cards and Payment Services BUY 735 850 16 699 8.1 951 23 35 48 31 21 15 5.0 4.1 3.3 — — — 17 22 24 0.4 0.5 0.6 10 5
State Bank of India BUY 754 975 29 6,726 77.9 8,925 66 73 92 11 10 8 1.7 1.5 1.3 — — — 15 15 16 2.0 2.1 2.2 123 53
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank BUY 34 50 48 65 0.8 1,931 4 5 7 8 6 5 1.0 0.9 0.8 — — — 14 16 17 2.9 3.6 4.4 5 2
Union Bank BUY 106 155 46 810 9.4 7,634 20 20 20 5 5 5 0.8 0.7 0.7 — — — 15 13 12 3.8 3.9 3.8 17 7
Utkarsh Small Finance Bank ADD 30 45 49 33 0.4 1,101 2 3 7 19 11 4 1.1 1.0 0.8 — — — 6 10 20 — — — 1 1
YES Bank SELL 18 18 0 563 6.5 28,768 1 1 2 24 13 9 1.2 1.1 1.0 — — — 5 8 11 — — — 22 8
Banks Attractive 38,834 449.6 13.8 12.2 10.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 1,058 571
India Research
34

Capital goods
ABB SELL 6,194 5,900 (5) 1,313 15.2 212 85 96 107 73 65 58 17.2 13.8 11.4 56 50 44 27 24 22 0.1 0.1 0.1 32 14
Bharat Electronics SELL 268 230 (14) 1,958 22.7 7,310 7 8 9 40 35 30 10.2 8.7 7.4 29 25 22 28 27 26 1.0 1.2 1.3 64 29
BHEL SELL 202 110 (46) 704 8.1 3,482 1 5 11 213 40 19 2.8 2.6 2.2 NM 24 12 1 7 13 (0.0) (0.2) (0.7) 41 13
Carborundum Universal REDUCE 1,231 1,380 12 234 2.7 190 27 33 40 46 37 30 6.6 5.8 5.0 28 23 19 15 17 18 0.4 0.5 0.7 2 1
CG Power & Industrial SELL 610 475 (22) 933 10.8 1,527 7 9 10 91 71 59 24.9 19.9 16.1 65 51 43 27 28 27 (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) 25 12
Cochin Shipyard SELL 1,396 800 (43) 367 4.3 263 28 30 41 50 46 34 6.7 6.1 5.4 38 31 24 14 14 17 0.7 0.7 0.9 10 9
Cummins India BUY 2,888 4,100 42 801 9.3 277 68 81 96 43 36 30 11.6 10.2 8.9 40 33 27 29 30 32 1.3 1.6 1.9 24 12
G R Infraprojects SELL 1,318 1,070 (19) 128 1.5 97 69 86 108 19 15 12 1.6 1.5 1.3 13 11 8 9 10 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0
IRB Infrastructure ADD 51 65 27 309 3.6 6,039 2 2 3 28 21 18 2.3 2.3 2.2 12 11 10 8 11 12 4.0 4.5 4.9 13 5
Kalpataru Projects ADD 1,178 1,400 19 201 2.3 160 51 80 102 23 15 11 3.2 2.7 2.2 11 9 7 15 20 21 0.4 0.6 0.7 5 3
KEC International REDUCE 950 900 (5) 253 2.9 257 30 48 61 32 20 16 4.3 3.6 3.0 16 12 10 16 20 21 0.3 0.5 0.7 13 5
L&T REDUCE 3,501 3,650 4 4,815 55.7 1,375 117 142 174 30 25 20 5.9 5.1 4.4 21 18 15 21 22 23 0.8 0.9 1.2 86 51
Praj Industries ADD 739 880 19 136 1.6 184 15 18 25 50 41 30 8.8 7.2 5.8 — — — 19 19 22 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 4
Siemens SELL 5,809 5,000 (14) 2,069 23.9 356 81 95 112 72 61 52 11.8 10.4 9.0 55 47 40 18 18 19 0.4 0.4 0.5 34 16
Thermax REDUCE 4,015 4,650 16 478 5.5 113 65 85 100 62 47 40 9.1 7.9 6.8 50 37 30 15 18 18 0.3 0.4 0.4 6 3
Capital goods Cautious 14,698 170.2 42.5 33.9 27.2 7.0 6.1 5.3 27.6 22.5 18.4 16.5 18.1 19.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 365 176
Capital Markets
360 One REDUCE 1,193 1,100 (8) 463 5.4 359 25 31 36 47 39 33 11.6 10.8 9.9 — — — 25 29 32 1.6 1.9 2.3 9 5
ABSL AMC ADD 770 830 8 222 2.6 288 31 35 38 25 22 20 6.3 5.7 5.1 — — — NM NM NM 2.4 2.7 2.9 6 3
Computer Age Management Services REDUCE 4,305 4,200 (2) 213 2.5 49 92 107 125 47 40 35 19.0 15.8 13.2 — — — 45 43 42 1.2 1.4 1.7 24 9
CRISIL SELL 5,778 3,900 (33) 423 4.9 73 99 113 128 59 51 45 17.3 15.5 13.8 — — — 31 32 32 1.1 1.3 1.4 6 2
HDFC AMC REDUCE 4,048 4,200 4 865 10.0 213 114 135 150 36 30 27 11.4 10.6 9.8 — — — 33 37 38 2.2 2.7 3.0 25 13
ICRA SELL 6,090 6,000 (1) 59 0.7 10 181 208 238 34 29 26 5.3 4.9 41.7 — — — 16 17 35 0.2 0.2 0.3 1 0
Kfin Technologies SELL 1,244 920 (26) 214 2.5 171 20 24 27 63 53 45 16.5 14.3 12.3 — — — 22 22 22 0.6 0.8 0.9 19 8
Nippon AMC REDUCE 660 720 9 418 4.8 630 22 25 27 30 27 25 10.1 9.7 9.4 — — — 34 37 39 3.0 3.4 3.7 10 5
UTI AMC REDUCE 1,260 1,300 3 161 1.9 127 62 56 60 20 22 21 3.5 3.4 3.3 — — — 18 16 16 3.9 3.6 3.8 5 2
Capital Markets Cautious 3,038 35.2 37.4 32.8 29.3 10.3 9.6 9.1 28 29 31 1.8 2.0 2.3 104 304
Commercial & Professional Services
SIS REDUCE 333 405 22 48 0.6 147 18 22 24 18 15 14 1.8 1.6 1.5 9 8 7 10 11 11 — — — 0 0
TeamLease Services SELL 2,681 2,800 4 45 0.5 17 89 104 133 30 26 20 4.7 4.0 3.3 25 19 15 17.1 16.9 18.0 — — — 1 1
Commercial & Professional Services Cautious 93 1.1 22.5 18.9 16.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 12.2 10.4 9.2 11.4 12.0 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1
Commodity Chemicals
Asian Paints REDUCE 2,230 2,400 8 2,139 24.8 959 45 49 55 50 45 41 10.2 9.2 8.3 34 31 28 22 21 21 1.0 1.1 1.3 43 24
Berger Paints SELL 465 490 5 542 6.3 1166 10 11 12 46 42 39 8.8 7.8 7.1 29 27 25 21 20 19 0.8 0.9 1.1 6 2
Indigo Paints REDUCE 1,227 1,300 6 58 0.7 48 31 33 38 40 37 32 5.7 5.1 4.5 23 21 18 15 14 15 0.4 0.6 0.7 3 1
Kansai Nerolac REDUCE 243 275 13 196 2.3 808 8 9 10 29 27 25 3.3 3.1 2.9 18 17 16 12 12 12 1.7 1.9 2.0 1 1
Tata Chemicals SELL 962 840 (13) 245 2.8 255 29 34 37 33 28 26 1.1 1.1 1.0 9 7 7 3 4 4 1.6 1.6 1.6 20 7
Commodity Chemicals Cautious 3,180 36.8 45.1 41.1 37.3 5.6 5.2 4.9 26.2 24.0 22.1 12.4 12.7 13.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 73 35
Construction Materials
ACC REDUCE 1,970 2,100 7 370 4.3 188 84 111 125 23 18 16 2.1 1.9 1.8 12 9 8 9 11 12 0.9 1.1 1.3 9 4
Ambuja Cements SELL 519 405 (22) 1,279 14.8 2,463 14 17 20 38 31 26 2.4 2.3 2.1 19 14 12 7 8 9 0.4 0.5 0.5 21 10
Dalmia Bharat REDUCE 1,737 1,750 1 326 3.8 187 46 61 85 37 29 20 1.9 1.8 1.7 13 11 9 5 6 9 0.4 0.5 0.7 6 3
Grasim Industries REDUCE 2,318 2,435 5 1,539 17.8 680 76 103 128 30 23 18 1.7 1.6 1.5 12 10 8 6 7 8 0.5 0.6 0.6 18 10
J K Cement SELL 4,447 2,475 (44) 344 4.0 77 84 107 127 53 42 35 5.8 5.2 4.6 21 17 15 12 13 14 0.3 0.3 0.3 6 2
Nuvoco Vistas Corp. ADD 345 355 3 123 1.4 357 (2) 5 7 NM 68 47 1.4 1.4 1.3 12 10 9 NM 2 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1
Shree Cement SELL 25,295 17,550 (31) 913 10.6 36 262 432 438 96 59 58 4.3 4.1 3.8 25 19 16 5 7 7 0.2 0.3 0.3 10 5
The Ramco Cements SELL 879 600 (32) 208 2.4 236 9 21 30 94 41 30 2.7 2.5 2.3 18 15 12 3 6 8 0.1 0.2 0.3 8 3
UltraTech Cement SELL 10,522 6,900 (34) 3,038 35.2 289 218 301 366 48 35 29 4.7 4.3 3.9 25 19 16 10 13 14 0.6 0.8 1.0 38 21
Construction Materials Cautious 8,138 94.2 42.7 31.1 25.7 2.8 2.6 2.4 16.9 13.6 11.6 6.6 8.4 9.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 117 59
India Research
35

Consumer Durables & Apparel
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail SELL 266 250 (6) 285 3.3 1,070 (6) (4) (2) NM NM NM 5.8 6.4 6.8 16 12 10 NM NM NM — — — 11 5
Campus Activewear REDUCE 277 290 5 85 1.0 304 4 5 6 69 56 46 10.9 9.4 8.1 34 28 24 17 18 19 — — 0.5 3 1
Cello World ADD 672 880 31 148 1.7 221 16 19 22 43 35 31 7.0 6.3 5.6 26 23 20 21 19 19 0.7 1.0 1.2 1 1
Crompton Greaves Consumer ADD 365 420 15 235 2.7 643 9 12 14 39 31 26 7.0 6.2 5.4 26 21 18 19 21 22 1.1 1.4 1.6 9 5
Eureka Forbes BUY 570 750 32 110 1.3 209 7 10 14 79 57 41 2.7 2.6 2.4 43 33 25 3 5 6 — — — 2 1
Havells India SELL 1,527 1,500 (2) 957 11.1 628 24 29 35 63 53 43 11.5 10.2 8.9 43 35 28 19 20 22 0.6 0.8 0.9 18 11
Page Industries SELL 45,766 37,000 (19) 510 5.9 11 644 768 904 71 60 51 26.3 21.9 18.5 48 41 35 41 40 40 0.8 1.0 1.2 18 9
Polycab SELL 6,472 4,750 (27) 973 11.3 151 125 150 185 52 43 35 10.2 8.6 7.3 35 29 23 21 22 23 0.5 0.6 0.7 27 11
Vedant Fashions REDUCE 1,206 1,010 (16) 293 3.4 243 19 21 24 64 56 49 15.5 13.1 11.0 37 32 27 26 25 24 — — — 3 2
Voltas SELL 1,625 1,150 (29) 538 6.2 331 28 33 41 58 50 40 8.3 7.4 6.6 44 38 32 15 16 17 0.5 0.6 0.7 36 19
Whirlpool SELL 1,684 1,500 (11) 214 2.5 127 29 38 48 58 44 35 5.5 5.1 4.6 33 25 20 9 12 14 0.4 0.6 0.7 4 2
Consumer Durables & Apparel Cautious 4,348 50.3 67.5 53.7 42.9 9.1 8.2 7.3 34.4 28.1 23.3 13.5 15.3 17.0 0.5 0.6 0.8 133 66
Consumer Staples
Britannia Industries ADD 4,877 5,350 10 1,175 13.6 241 89 103 117 55 47 42 27.2 25.4 23.9 38 33 29 52 56 59 1.8 2.2 2.4 23 12
Colgate-Palmolive (India) REDUCE 2,665 2,825 6 725 8.4 272 55 60 66 49 45 41 38.0 35.9 33.7 35 31 29 79 82 86 1.9 2.1 2.3 18 10
Dabur India ADD 516 590 14 914 10.6 1,772 10 12 14 49 42 37 8.6 8.0 7.4 37 32 28 18 20 21 1.2 1.4 1.6 16 9
Godrej Consumer Products ADD 1,129 1,365 21 1,155 13.4 1,023 20 25 28 57 46 40 8.5 7.8 7.1 38 33 29 16 18 19 0.9 1.2 1.4 22 14
Hindustan Unilever ADD 2,373 2,850 20 5,576 64.6 2,350 45 51 56 52 47 42 10.7 10.3 9.9 37 33 30 21 22 24 1.7 1.9 2.1 49 31
Honasa Consumer REDUCE 243 340 40 79 0.9 322 2 4 6 118 55 38 6.5 5.6 4.8 99 38 25 6 11 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 3
ITC ADD 437 540 23 5,472 63.4 12,428 17 18 20 26 24 22 7.2 6.9 6.6 20 18 16 26 28 30 3.3 3.6 3.9 74 44
Jyothy Labs SELL 389 410 5 143 1.7 367 10 11 13 37 34 31 7.2 6.5 6.0 28 25 22 20 20 20 1.4 1.5 1.8 5 2
Marico REDUCE 660 640 (3) 855 9.9 1,290 13 14 15 51 48 43 20.7 19.2 17.9 39 35 31 42 42 43 1.6 1.7 1.9 17 9
Nestle India ADD 2,200 2,475 13 2,121 24.6 964 33 37 43 68 59 52 46.6 36.4 31.0 45 39 34 79 69 65 0.9 1.1 1.5 26 16
Sula Vineyards ADD 376 450 20 32 0.4 84 9 11 13 41 34 30 5.2 4.7 4.2 21 18 16 13 14 15 0.6 0.9 1.0 2 1
Tata Consumer Products ADD 956 1,110 16 951 11.0 989 14 19 22 66 51 43 4.8 4.6 4.4 37 30 26 8 9 10 0.9 1.1 1.3 19 10
United Breweries REDUCE 1,948 1,900 (2) 515 6.0 264 21 31 39 93 64 50 11.5 10.6 9.8 55 40 32 13 17 20 0.8 1.2 1.5 5 2
United Spirits ADD 1,411 1,525 8 1,026 11.9 727 19 23 27 74 61 53 12.7 11.3 10.0 50 41 36 18 20 20 0.5 0.6 0.8 14 8
Varun Beverages ADD 561 640 14 1,895 21.9 3,248 8 10 12 70 56 46 19.7 15.1 11.8 41 34 29 32 30 29 0.2 0.2 0.3 41 23
Consumer Staples Attractive 22,631 262.0 45.0 39.7 35.5 10.7 10.0 9.3 32.1 28.1 25.0 24 25 26 1.7 1.9 2.2 335 194
Diversified Financials
Aadhar Housing Finance BUY 397 550 38 171 2.0 427 22 27 34 18 15 12 2.7 2.2 1.9 — — — 17 17 17 — — — 4 2
Aavas Financiers BUY 1,638 1,925 17 130 1.5 79 72 89 108 23 19 15 3.0 2.6 2.2 — — — 14 15 16 — — — 3 2
Aptus Value Housing Finance ADD 277 370 34 138 1.6 499 15 17 20 19 16 14 3.2 2.8 2.5 — — — 18 18 19 1.5 1.8 2.2 5 3
Bajaj Finance ADD 7,177 8,000 11 4,443 51.4 618 260 322 406 28 22 18 4.9 4.1 3.4 — — — 19 20 21 0.5 0.6 0.7 84 42
Bajaj Finserv BUY 1,672 1,930 15 2,669 30.9 1,593 66 81 101 25 21 17 5.6 4.7 3.9 — — — 24 25 26 0.1 0.1 0.1 30 15
Bajaj Housing Finance SELL 114 100 (12) 950 11.0 8,318 3 3 4 44 35 28 4.8 4.2 3.6 — — — 13 13 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 -
Cholamandalam ADD 1,254 1,500 20 1,054 12.2 840 49 61 77 26 21 16 4.5 3.5 2.9 — — — 19 19 20 0.1 0.3 0.5 28 17
Five Star Business Finance ADD 644 890 38 189 2.2 291 35 42 51 18 15 13 3.0 2.5 2.1 — — — 18 18 18 — — — 17 9
Home First Finance BUY 1,027 1,360 32 92 1.1 89 43 54 68 24 19 15 3.7 3.1 2.7 — — — 17 18 19 — 0.5 0.7 9 4
India Shelter BUY 651 850 31 70 0.8 107 36 40 48 18 16 13 2.6 2.3 1.9 — — — 15 15 15 — — — 1 1
L&T Finance ADD 140 160 14 349 4.0 2,480 11 14 16 13 10 8 1.4 1.3 1.1 — — — 11 13 14 2.4 2.9 3.5 14 6
LIC Housing Finance BUY 553 750 36 304 3.5 550 94 99 102 6 6 5 0.9 0.8 0.7 — — — 15 14 13 2.7 2.9 3.0 11 5
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial ADD 268 320 19 331 3.8 1,234 18 22 25 15 12 11 1.7 1.5 1.4 — — — 12 13 13 1.3 1.6 1.9 7 3
Muthoot Finance BUY 2,180 2,175 (0) 875 10.1 401 133 159 183 16 14 12 3.1 2.6 2.3 — — — 20 21 20 1.5 1.7 2.0 13 6
SBFC ADD 85 90 6 92 1.1 1,107 3 4 5 27 22 17 3.3 2.8 2.4 — — — 12 13 14 — — — 2 1
Shriram Finance BUY 533 730 37 1,003 11.6 1,879 54 55 67 10 10 8 1.8 1.6 1.3 — — — 16 17 18 1.5 1.5 1.9 48 25
Diversified Financials Attractive 12,861 148.9 20.4 17.3 14.2 3.4 2.9 2.5 16.6 16.7 17.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 276 140
India Research
36

Electric Utilities
CESC SELL 154 145 (6) 204 2.4 1,326 10 12 13 15 12 11 1.7 1.5 1.4 8 7 6 12 13 13 2.9 3.1 3.2 11 4
JSW Energy SELL 562 350 (38) 981 11.4 1,744 16 21 25 35 27 23 3.5 3.1 2.7 15 12 11 11 12 13 0.3 0.4 0.4 25 11
NHPC SELL 77 70 (10) 775 9.0 10,045 4 6 7 19 13 11 1.9 1.7 1.6 19 9 7 10 14 15 2.1 3.0 3.8 23 10
NTPC SELL 321 310 (4) 3,116 36.1 9,895 22 23 25 14.5 13.9 13 1.7 1.6 1.4 10 9 8 12 12 12 2.5 2.5 2.6 60 34
Power Grid SELL 299 280 (6) 2,778 32.2 9,301 18 20 21 16.8 14.7 14 3.0 2.8 2.6 9 9 8 18 20 19 4.0 4.3 4.5 49 30
Tata Power SELL 365 330 (10) 1,168 13.5 3,196 15 17 20 25 21 18 3.2 2.7 2.4 14 12 10 14 14 14 — — — 54 21
Electric Utilities Cautious 9,022 104.5 17.5 15.5 14.1 2.2 2.1 1.9 10.6 9.2 8.5 12.8 13.3 13.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 221 109
Electronic Manufacturing Services
Amber Enterprises ADD 7,034 6,000 (15) 238 2.8 34 80 123 160 87 57 44 10.1 8.6 7.1 35 27 22 12 16 18 — — — 77 18
Avalon Technologies SELL 807 520 (36) 53 0.6 65 9 14 21 89 56 39 8.7 7.5 6.3 52 36 25 10 14 18 — — — 9 3
Cyient DLM SELL 591 620 5 47 0.5 79 12 20 26 47 30 23 4.6 4.0 3.4 27 19 15 10 13 15 — — — 2 1
Dixon Technologies SELL 16,920 8,430 (50) 1,016 11.8 60 176 195 234 96.3 86.7 72 36.4 25.2 18.5 70 51 42 39 34 30 — — — 105 30
Kaynes Technology ADD 6,565 5,730 (13) 420 4.9 58 50 75 106 131.1 88.0 62 13.6 11.6 9.6 92 59 41 12 16 19 — — — 41 12
Syrma SGS Technology REDUCE 538 450 (16) 96 1.1 176 8 12 17 64 44 32 5.4 4.8 4.2 32 23 17 8 11 14 — — — 14 5
Electronic Manufacturing Services Cautious 1,871 21.7 103.2 72.3 55.9 16.5 13.5 10.9 58.9 42.5 33.3 16.0 18.6 19.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 248 68
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Bayer Cropscience ADD 5,145 5,950 16 231 2.7 45 135 204 249 38 25 21 7.9 7.5 7.1 29 19 16 21 30 35 2.2 3.4 4.2 2 1
Godrej Agrovet ADD 732 820 12 141 1.6 192 23 27 35 32 27 21 4.7 4.2 3.7 18 15 12 15 16 19 1.5 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.7
Rallis India SELL 285 230 (19) 55 0.6 195 8 10 12 34 29 24 2.9 2.7 2.5 15— 13— 11— 9 10 11 1.1 1.2 1.4 4 2
UPL SELL 547 430 (21) 435 5.0 751 4 21 34 139 26 16 1.6 1.5 1.4 9 8 6 2 6 9 0.2 0.2 0.2 15 6
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Cautious 863 10.0 52.2 26.2 18.5 2.6 2.4 2.2 12.0 9.6 8.0 5.0 9.3 12.1 1.0 1.4 1.7 23 10
Gas Utilities
GAIL (India) SELL 178 150 (16) 1,170 13.5 6,575 14 13 13 12 14 14 1.7 1.6 1.5 9 9 9 14 12 11 3.4 3.7 3.9 31 15
Indraprastha Gas SELL 402 290 (28) 282 3.3 700 21 24 24 19 17 16 3.1 3.0 2.8 16 14 13 17 18 17 2.6 2.7 2.9 28 11
Mahanagar Gas SELL 1,291 1,000 (23) 128 1.5 99 89 89 90 14 15 14 2.2 2.0 1.9 9 9 8 16 15 13 2.4 2.4 2.4 14 6
Petronet LNG SELL 326 235 (28) 489 5.7 1,500 29 27 28 11 12 12 2.4 2.1 1.8 7 8 8 23 18 17 1.5 0.8 1.5 11 6
Gas Utilities Cautious 2,267 26.3 13.2 14.3 14.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 9.3 9.7 9.3 14.9 12.7 12.1 2.7 2.6 3.0 88 40
Health Care Services
Apollo Hospitals ADD 6,728 8,100 20 967 11.2 144 101 140 188 67 48 36 11.8 9.6 7.7 32 25 20 19 22 24 0.2 0.2 0.2 29 15
Dr Lal Pathlabs ADD 2,761 3,250 18 231 2.7 84 52 59 68 53 46 40 11.2 10.1 9.0 31 27 23 22 23 24 1.0 1.1 1.3 8 4
Global Health ADD 1,024 1,175 15 275 3.2 268 19 22 28 55 46 37 8.2 7.2 6.1 30 25 20 16 17 18 0.3 0.3 0.4 4 2
KIMS ADD 618 580 (6) 247 2.9 400 8 10 14 80 64 44 11.6 9.8 8.0 34 28 21 16 17 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 2
Max Healthcare REDUCE 1,039 975 (6) 1,010 11.7 971 15 21 27 70 49 38 9.5 8.1 6.7 45 34 27 14 18 19 0.1 0.1 0.2 24 15
Metropolis Healthcare REDUCE 1,882 2,080 11 96 1.1 51 34 43 54 55 43 35 7.8 6.9 6.1 27 22 18 15 17 19 0.4 0.5 0.9 4 1
Narayana Hrudayalaya ADD 1,288 1,400 9 263 3.0 204 38 46 54 34 28 24 7.2 5.7 4.6 22 18 15 24 23 21 — — — 5 3
Rainbow Children's Medicare REDUCE 1,450 1,400 (3) 147 1.7 102 23 30 36 62 49 41 10.1 8.6 7.4 30 24 21 18 19 20 0.3 0.4 0.4 5 2
Health Care Services Neutral 3,482 40.3 61.6 46.1 36.1 9.3 7.9 6.6 33.1 26.2 21.0 15.1 17.1 18.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 92 48
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Hotels & Restaurants
Chalet Hotels ADD 842 930 10 184 2.1 218 8 29 46 108 29 18 6.1 5.1 4.1 25 18 12 7 19 25 (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) 6 2
Devyani International ADD 193 184 (5) 233 2.7 1,204 (0) 0 1 NM 391 184 22.1 21.5 20.3 29 24 20 NM 6 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 3
Indian Hotels ADD 811 800 (1) 1,155 13.4 1,423 12 16 20 66 50 41 10.3 8.8 7.4 38 29 24 17 19 20 0.3 0.3 0.4 37 19
Jubilant Foodworks REDUCE 700 690 (1) 462 5.3 660 4 6 7 189 120 95 19.4 17.4 15.2 39 31 27 11 15 17 0.2 0.2 0.3 17 7
Lemon Tree Hotels REDUCE 141 118 (17) 112 1.3 792 2 4 5 57 40 28 10.8 9.7 8.2 20 16 13 20 25 32 1.0 1.1 1.5 7 3
Restaurant Brands Asia REDUCE 77 95 23 38 0.4 495 (2) (1) (1) NM NM NM 2.2 2.2 2.3 14 11 9 NM NM NM — — — 1 1
Samhi Hotels BUY 187 265 42 41 0.5 220 6 9 13 33 22 14 3.5 3.1 2.6 13 12 10 11 15 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
Sapphire Foods ADD 331 380 15 106 1.2 318 1 2 3 491 158 96 7.7 7.4 6.9 22 17 15 2 5 7 — — — 2 1
Westlife Foodworld REDUCE 735 700 (5) 115 1.3 156 1 5 8 1,217 154 94 19.2 17.5 15.2 37 27 22 2 12 17 — — — 2 1
Hotels & Restaurants Attractive 2,447 28.3 101.2 62.4 45.8 10.4 9.1 7.8 31.2 24.3 19.6 10.3 14.7 17.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 82 39
Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance BUY 594 850 43 1,279 14.8 2,020 8 10 11 70 61 53 8.3 7.8 7.3 — — — 12 13 14 0.4 0.4 0.5 27 15
ICICI Lombard ADD 1,895 2,075 10 938 10.9 493 52 60 70 37 32 27 6.6 5.6 4.8 — — — 19 19 19 0.4 0.5 0.6 14 9
ICICI Prudential Life BUY 633 850 34 915 10.6 1,441 6 7 8 99 87 81 7.9 7.4 6.9 — — — 8 9 9 0.5 0.5 0.5 8 4
LIC BUY 836 1,250 50 5,288 61.2 6,325 67 70 72 12 12 12 4.6 3.6 2.9 — — — 43 34 28 — — — 15 6
Max Financial Services ADD 1,035 1,350 30 357 4.1 345 2 2 3 555 483 413 — — — — — — 1 1 1 — — — 12 6
PB Fintech REDUCE 1,764 1,500 (15) 810 9.4 456 6 13 21 281 139 85 — — — 4 9 12 — — — 31 16
SBI Life Insurance ADD 1,473 1,900 29 1,476 17.1 1,005 24 27 29 62 55 51 8.9 7.9 7.0 — — — 15 15 14 0.3 0.3 0.3 33 20
Star Health and Allied Insurance REDUCE 463 500 8 272 3.1 585 13 17 25 34 28 19 3.8 3.3 2.8 — — — 12 13 16 — — — 6 4
Insurance Attractive 11,335 131.2 22.2 20.8 19.6 5.9 4.8 4.1 27 23 21 0.1 0.1 0.1 146 80
Internet Software & Services
Brainbees Solutions ADD 486 630 30 252 2.9 523.4 (6) (3) 2 NM NM 242 5.3 5.2 4.9 206 68 32 NM NM 2.1 — — — 5 2
Cartrade Tech SELL 1,441 700 (51) 68 0.8 51.5 17 20 23 87 74 63 3.4 3.3 3.1 55 45 37 4.1 4.6 5.1 — — — 6 3
FSN E-commerce Ventures SELL 173 170 (2) 494 5.7 2,875.0 0 1 2 488 145 83 36.4 29.1 21.6 105 61 42 7.8 22 30 — — — 16 8
Indiamart REDUCE 2,210 2,350 6 133 1.5 59.9 88 96 109 25 23 20 6.2 5.1 4.3 18 15 13 27 24 23 1.1 1.1 1.1 11 5
Info Edge ADD 7,455 8,350 12 966 11.2 129.1 77 93 110 96 80 68 3.7 3.6 3.4 82 68 57 3.9 4.5 5.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 28 14
Just Dial BUY 893 1,330 49 76 0.9 85.0 67 66 72 13 14 12 1.7 1.5 1.3 7 5 3 13.2 11.5 11.2 — — — 4 2
Zomato BUY 244 305 25 2,354 27.3 9,131 1 2 4 241 101 66 7.3 6.7 6.0 223 94 49 3.6 6.9 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 189 86
Internet Software & Services Attractive 4,343 50.3 149 90 63 6.0 5.6 5.2 109 67 43 4.1 6.3 8.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 259 117
IT Services
Coforge ADD 8,583 9,300 8 574 6.6 67 144 200 256 60 43 34 9.4 8.5 7.7 30 22 18 20 21 24 0.9 1.1 1.7 50 24
Cyient BUY 1,728 2,050 19 192 2.2 111 66 82 92 26 21 19 3.9 3.5 3.2 15 12 11 15 17 18 2.0 2.6 3.2 7 4
HCL Technologies REDUCE 1,826 1,760 (4) 4,954 57.4 2,716 64 69 77 29 26 24 6.9 6.5 6.1 18 17 15 25 25 26 3.0 3.2 3.3 62 38
Indegene BUY 650 730 12 156 1.8 240 17 21 25 39 31 26 6.0 5.1 4.2 25 21 17 20 18 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 4
Infosys BUY 1,950 2,200 13 8,095 93.7 4,151 63 72 80 31 27 24 8.5 7.9 7.6 20 18 16 29 30 32 2.4 2.8 3.5 123 74
KPIT Technologies SELL 1,342 1,150 (14) 368 4.3 273 27 34 43 49 39 31 13.3 10.7 8.6 29 23 19 30 30 30 0.7 0.8 1.0 24 11
L&T Technology Services SELL 4,852 4,750 (2) 514 5.9 106 123 147 170 40 33 29 8.5 7.4 6.5 25 21 18 23 24 24 0.9 1.1 1.3 8 3
LTIMindtree ADD 5,838 6,750 16 1,730 20.0 296 163 203 233 36 29 25 7.7 6.7 5.9 24 20 17 23 25 25 1.4 1.5 1.9 23 11
Mphasis SELL 2,778 2,750 (1) 527 6.1 189 90 99 116 31 28 24 5.7 5.3 4.9 20 18 15 19 20 21 2.3 2.5 2.5 23 11
Persistent Systems SELL 6,111 4,600 (25) 952 11.0 155 87 107 128 70 57 48 16.2 13.7 11.5 47 38 32 25 26 26 0.5 0.6 0.7 33 15
RateGain REDUCE 667 800 20 79 0.9 119 17 22 26 38 31 26 4.7 4.1 3.5 31 24 19 13 14 15 — — — 3 2
Tata Elxsi SELL 6,116 5,400 (12) 381 4.4 62 129 145 172 47 42 36 13.7 12.5 11.2 34 29 25 31 31 33 1.4 1.6 1.9 17 7
Tata Technologies SELL 800 650 (19) 324 3.8 406 17 20 24 48 40 34 9.1 8.2 7.3 32 27 22 20 22 23 1.0 1.2 1.5 10 5
TCS ADD 4,250 4,550 7 15,375 178.0 3,619 135 147 165 31 29 26 15.4 14.1 12.9 22 20 18 51 51 52 2.7 2.9 3.2 115 69
Tech Mahindra ADD 1,676 1,850 10 1,482 17.2 890 51 66 84 33 25 20 5.5 5.2 4.8 20 15 12 17 21 25 2.3 2.4 3.1 40 22
Wipro SELL 293 250 (15) 3,064 35.5 10,472 12 13 14 24 23 21 3.5 3.2 3.0 15 14 13 16 15 15 0.2 2.1 2.6 49 22
IT Services Neutral 38,767 448.8 31.5 28.1 24.9 8.6 7.9 7.3 20.8 18.6 16.5 27.5 28.3 29.5 2.2 2.5 2.9 594 297
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Media
PVR INOX ADD 1,085 1,700 57 107 1.2 98 13 42 56 81 26 19 1.2 1.2 1.1 16 10 8 2 5 6 0.1 0.4 0.5 12 4
Sun TV Network REDUCE 653 730 12 257 3.0 394 45 50 54 14 13 12 2.2 2.0 1.9 10 9 8 16 16 16 2.9 3.3 3.7 3 1
Zee Entertainment Enterprises REDUCE 122 138 13 118 1.4 960 8 10 11 15 13 11 1.0 1.0 1.0 8 7 6 7 8 9 3.3 3.7 4.1 19 7
Media Neutral 482 5.6 17.8 14.5 12.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 10.3 8.3 7.3 8.6 10.0 10.5 2.4 2.8 3.1 34 12
Metals & Mining
Gravita India ADD 2,111 2,500 18 156 1.8 69 44 58 72 48 37 29 13.3 10.2 8.1 37.4 29.5 24.0 32 31 31 0.3 0.4 0.9 9 4
Hindalco Industries REDUCE 592 665 12 1,329 15.4 2,220 66 58 62 9 10 10 1.1 1.0 0.9 5.1 5.3 5.0 13 10 10 1.1 1.0 1.0 45 22
Hindustan Zinc SELL 442 380 (14) 1,868 21.6 4,225 25 26 26 17 17 17 13.7 13.7 13.7 10.5 10.1 9.9 74 79 79 6.6 5.8 5.8 13 7
Jindal Steel and Power BUY 910 1,160 27 929 10.8 1,020 46 71 103 20 13 9 1.9 1.7 1.4 10.2 7.5 5.4 10 14 17 0.3 0.4 0.6 21 9
JSW Steel REDUCE 904 925 2 2,211 25.6 2,445 36 65 84 25 14 11 2.6 2.2 1.9 10.5 7.8 6.4 11 17 19 0.6 1.1 1.4 24 10
National Aluminium Co. REDUCE 195 250 28 359 4.2 1,837 25 21 22 8 9 9 2.1 1.8 1.6 4.6 5.4 4.8 29 21 19 5.2 4.3 4.5 55 17
NMDC SELL 63 70 11 556 6.4 8,792 8 8 7 8 8 9 1.9 1.6 1.5 5.2 5.2 5.5 25 21 17 5.0 4.9 4.5 31 13
SAIL SELL 105 55 (48) 435 5.0 4,130 2 4 4 44 29 27 0.8 0.7 0.7 8.9 8.6 8.6 2 3 3 0.7 1.0 1.1 26 8
Tata Steel SELL 127 135 7 1,580 18.3 12,486 5 11 14 27 11 9 1.6 1.5 1.3 8.8 6.3 5.8 6 14 15 1.3 2.2 2.7 59 23
Vedanta SELL 435 430 (1) 1,702 19.7 3,913 31 40 44 14 11 10 4.5 4.0 3.5 5.5 4.7 4.4 36 38 37 8.0 6.2 6.5 52 22
Metals & Mining Cautious 11,123 128.8 15.9 12.5 10.9 2.2 2.0 1.8 7.6 6.5 5.9 13.8 15.8 16.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 334 131
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
BPCL SELL 267 265 (1) 1,158 13.4 4,273 22 29 28 12 9 9 1.4 1.3 1.2 6.6 5.5 5.7 12 15 13 2.8 3.7 3.6 32 14
Coal India SELL 375 420 12 2,309 26.7 6,163 52 53 54 7 7 7 2.3 2.0 1.7 6.5 5.5 4.8 35 30 27 6.7 6.7 6.7 39 20
HPCL SELL 363 200 (45) 773 8.9 2,128 16 35 34 22 10 11 1.8 1.6 1.4 13.4 8.9 8.9 8 16 14 1.4 2.9 2.8 29 12
IOCL SELL 127 100 (21) 1,793 20.8 14,121 8 15 14 15 9 9 1.0 0.9 0.9 7.5 5.3 5.3 7 11 10 3.0 4.9 4.7 28 12
Oil India SELL 464 360 (22) 755 8.7 1,627 45 51 50 10 9 9 1.5 1.4 1.3 7.6 6.5 6.3 16 16 14 3.1 3.9 3.8 20 9
ONGC ADD 258 285 10 3,248 37.6 12,580 40 46 46 6 6 6 0.9 0.8 0.7 4.2 3.3 3.3 14 15 13 4.9 5.0 4.9 44 21
Reliance Industries ADD 1,252 1,405 12 16,946 196.2 13,532 51 62 71 25 20 18 2.0 1.8 1.7 11.7 9.6 8.1 8 9 10 — 0.4 0.5 225 138
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Neutral 26,981 312.4 14.7 12.1 11.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 8.6 6.9 6.3 10.9 12.1 11.6 1.9 2.1 2.1 416 225
Pharmaceuticals
Alivus Life Sciences BUY 1,052 1,200 14 129 1.5 123 39 47 53 27 22 20 5.1 4.6 4.1 19 15 14 20 22 21 2.2 2.3 2.4 2 1
Aurobindo Pharma SELL 1,148 1,225 7 666 7.7 586 63 74 79 18 16 14 2.1 1.9 1.8 10 9 8 12 13 12 1.6 1.9 2.3 16 8
Biocon REDUCE 382 350 (8) 459 5.3 1,202 1 11 15 427 35 26 1.8 1.7 1.6 18 13 11 0 5 7 0.9 1.0 1.4 18 6
Blue Jet Healthcare ADD 588 550 (6) 102 1.2 173 12 16 21 49 36 29 9.9 7.9 6.3 37 25 19 22 24 24 0.2 0.2 0.3 2 1
Cipla BUY 1,447 1,725 19 1,169 13.5 806 59 64 64 25 23 23 3.8 3.4 3.0 16 14 14 16 16 14 0.9 1.0 1.0 41 23
Concord Biotech ADD 2,253 2,050 (9) 236 2.7 105 35 47 60 65 48 37 13.1 10.9 8.9 46 34 27 22 25 24 0.4 0.5 0.7 3 1
Divis Laboratories SELL 5,877 4,000 (32) 1,560 18.1 265 79 98 124 74 60 47 10.6 9.6 8.6 53 43 34 15 17 19 0.6 0.7 0.9 36 20
Dr Reddy's Laboratories REDUCE 1,337 1,295 (3) 1,116 12.9 832 68 70 62 20 19 22 3.4 2.9 2.6 13 12 12 19 16 12 0.7 0.8 0.8 32 18
Emcure Pharmaceuticals BUY 1,350 1,680 24 256 3.0 189 39 49 59 35 28 23 5.9 5.1 4.4 17 15 12 20 20 20 0.7 0.9 1.1 2
Gland Pharma REDUCE 1,674 1,625 (3) 276 3.2 164 49 63 77 34 26 22 3.0 2.8 2.6 19 15 13 9 11 13 1.4 1.5 1.7 6 3
JB Chemicals & Pharma BUY 1,770 2,325 31 275 3.2 157 44 55 63 40 32 28 8.0 6.7 5.6 25 21 18 22 23 22 0.6 0.6 0.7 4 2
Laurus Labs SELL 557 370 (34) 300 3.5 536 6 9 12 97 59 45 6.8 6.1 5.3 32 24 20 7 11 13 - - - 16 7
Lupin ADD 2,129 2,385 12 971 11.2 455 67 85 81 32 25 26 5.7 4.8 4.2 19 15 15 20 21 17 0.6 0.7 0.7 25 13
Mankind Pharma ADD 2,596 2,855 10 1,071 12.4 401 58 71 86 45 37 30 9.4 7.8 6.5 35 29 24 23 23 24 0.5 0.7 0.8 14 7
Sun Pharmaceuticals ADD 1,757 2,045 16 4,215 48.8 2,399 48 57 66 36 31 27 5.8 5.0 4.4 26 22 19 17 18 18 0.6 0.7 0.8 40 25
Torrent Pharmaceuticals REDUCE 3,227 3,300 2 1,092 12.6 338 58 74 91 56 43 35 13.2 10.7 8.7 29 25 21 26 27 27 0.5 0.5 0.6 20 11
Pharmaceuticals Neutral 13,893 160.8 35.8 29.7 26.8 5.1 4.5 4.0 22.0 18.6 16.8 14.3 15.3 14.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 276 146
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Real Estate
Brigade Enterprises BUY 1,104 1,320 20 270 3.1 244 26 34 48 42 33 23 4.7 4.2 3.6 20 14 10 14 13 17 0.2 0.2 0.2 4 2
Brookfield India Real Estate Trust ADD 288 330 15 175 2.0 480 3 7 10 85 42 28 1.3 1.4 1.5 17 15 14 1 3 4 6.5 7.0 7.5 1 1
DLF BUY 735 960 31 1,819 21.1 2,475 17 22 31 44 33 24 4.3 4.0 3.5 89 42 30 10 12 16 0.8 1.0 1.1 31 13
Embassy Office Parks REIT ADD 374 425 — 354 4.1 948 25 12 16 15 30 23 1.5 1.6 1.7 15 13 12 10 5 7 6.2 6.6 7.1 3 3
Godrej Properties SELL 2,307 2,245 (3) 695 8.0 278 65 52 95 36 45 24 5.4 4.8 4.0 425 171 55 17 12 18 — — — 26 11
Macrotech Developers ADD 1,125 1,340 19 1,122 13.0 995 26 41 43 43 27 26 5.6 4.6 3.9 29 20 18 14 19 16 — — — 23 11
Mindspace REIT ADD 379 410 8 225 2.6 593 11 14 18 35 27 21 1.6 1.6 1.7 15 14 12 4 6 8 5.7 6.2 6.6 5 4
Nexus Select Trust ADD 139 155 11 211 2.4 1,515 4 5 6 34 28 25 1.5 1.5 1.6 16 15 14 4 5 6 5.9 6.6 7.1 1 1
Oberoi Realty REDUCE 2,007 1,825 (9) 730 8.4 364 56 86 120 36 23 17 4.6 3.8 3.1 24 16 11 14 18 21 0.5 0.6 0.7 34 16
Phoenix Mills REDUCE 1,658 1,465 (12) 593 6.9 357 35 44 46 47 37 36 5.6 4.9 4.4 24 19 18 12 14 13 0.2 0.2 0.2 14 8
Prestige Estates Projects ADD 1,439 1,830 27 620 7.2 408 22 26 47 64 56 30 3.4 3.4 3.1 22 18 13 6 6 11 0.1 0.2 0.2 14 7
Signature Global BUY 1,116 1,570 41 157 1.8 141 32 74 164 35 15 7 14.6 7.4 3.5 34 11 5 53 65 71 — — — 9 2
Sobha REDUCE 1,311 1,500 14 132 1.5 107 14 38 55 93 34 24 3.0 2.8 2.5 36 16 10 4 9 11 0.3 0.3 0.4 4 1
Sunteck Realty BUY 452 670 48 66 0.8 140 16 39 52 28 12 9 1.9 1.6 1.4 21 9 6 7 15 17 0.2 0.2 0.2 2 1
Real Estate Attractive 7,167 83.0 40.0 31.6 22.9 3.7 3.4 3.1 29.8 20.8 15.7 9.2 10.8 13.5 1.1 1.2 1.3 173 81
Renewable Energy
Premier Energies SELL 1,147 770 (33) 517 6.0 451 16 27 35 71 43 33 18.0 12.6 9.1 36 23 16 42 35 33 — — — -
Waaree Energies SELL 2,610 2,550 (2) 750 8.7 288 59 111 195 44 23 13 7.7 6.0 4.1 29 16 10 24 29 37 — — — -
Renewable Energy - 7,684 14.7 53.9 28.7 17.6 10.4 7.6 5.3 31.9 18.4 12.3 19.3 27 30 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -
Retailing
Avenue Supermarts SELL 3,568 3,450 (3) 2,322 26.9 651 44 52 64 81 69 56 10.8 9.3 8.0 50 42 35 14 15 15 — — — 43 25
Metro Brands REDUCE 1,220 1,100 (10) 332 3.8 272 14 17 21 90 70 57 15.8 13.7 11.8 43 35 29 19 21 22 — 0.5 0.6 1 1
Titan Company REDUCE 3,324 3,275 (1) 2,951 34.2 888 42 52 62 79 64 54 25.7 20.2 16.0 50 42 36 36 35 33 0.4 0.5 0.6 45 24
Trent ADD 6,390 6,800 6 2,272 26.3 356 54 76 108 119 84 59 38.3 26.3 18.2 80 58 41 38 37 36 — — — 71 35
Retailing Neutral 5,605 91.2 88.7 70.7 56.0 19.2 15.6 12.5 55.9 45.4 36.7 22 22 22 0.2 0.2 0.2 161 85
Specialty Chemicals
Aarti Industries SELL 430 380 (12) 156 1.8 363 9 11 18 46 38 25 2.8 2.6 2.4 19 16 12 6 7 10 0.2 0.4 0.6 11 4
Aether Industries REDUCE 843 810 (4) 112 1.3 133 12 15 19 73 56 44 5.0 4.6 4.2 51 35 28 7 9 10 - - 0.0 1 1
Atul SELL 6,756 5,270 (22) 199 2.3 29 189 232 274 36 29 25 3.6 3.3 2.9 18 16 13 10 12 13 0.5 0.7 0.8 4 2
Castrol India SELL 183 190 4 181 2.1 989 9 11 11 20 17 16 8.0 7.4 6.7 13 12 11 42 44 44 4.4 4.7 4.9 9 3
Clean Science & Technology ADD 1,372 1,540 12 146 1.7 106 26 36 50 52 38 27 10.3 8.5 6.9 36 27 20 21 24 28 0.4 0.6 0.8 3 2
Deepak Nitrite SELL 2,361 1,990 (16) 322 3.7 136 59 69 81 40 34 29 5.8 5.0 4.4 28 26 22 15 16 16 0.3 0.3 0.3 9 3
Navin Fluorine REDUCE 3,714 3,310 (11) 184 2.1 50 50 86 119 74 43 31 7.2 6.3 5.5 44 27 21 10 16 19 0.3 0.5 0.7 10 4
Neogen Chemicals ADD 1,983 2,070 4 52 0.6 26 23 51 61 86 39 33 6.4 5.6 4.9 40 25 15 8 16 16 0.2 0.4 0.4 1 1
Pidilite Industries ADD 2,803 3,315 18 1,426 16.5 509 43 49 56 66 57 50 15.1 13.6 12.4 45 39 35 24 25 26 0.8 1.1 1.3 12 7
PI Industries REDUCE 3,459 4,000 16 525 6.1 152 120 131 147 29 26 24 5.1 4.4 3.8 21 19 17 19 18 17 0.4 0.6 0.6 14 7
S H Kelkar and Company BUY 223 370 66 31 0.4 138 10 12 17 22 18 13 2.3 2.1 1.9 11 9 7 11 12 15 1.1 1.1 1.5 1 1
SRF ADD 2,492 2,290 (8) 739 8.6 296 38 57 81 65 44 31 6.0 5.5 4.8 30 23 18 10 13 16 0.5 0.6 0.6 18 9
Vinati Organics SELL 1,653 1,200 (27) 171 2.0 104 37 46 57 45 36 29 6.1 5.4 4.6 30 24 19 15 16 17 0.3 0.4 0.5 1 1
Specialty Chemicals Neutral 4,243 49.1 47.1 38.4 31.4 6.8 6.1 5.4 29.1 24.3 20.2 14.5 15.9 17.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 95 44
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Telecommunication Services
Bharti Airtel ADD 1,607 1,720 7 9,623 111.4 5,753 40 53 68 40 30 24 10.1 8.1 7.0 12 10 8 27 30 31 0.9 1.4 1.7 103 64
Indus Towers SELL 352 340 (3) 928 10.7 2,638 32 28 21 11 13 17 2.8 2.3 2.3 5 5 6 29 20 14 0.6 5.7 2.8 34 17
Vodafone Idea SELL 9 7 (20) 611 7.1 69,645 (4) (3) (3) NM NM NM NM NM NM 16 14 13 NM NM NM — — — 47 14
Tata Communications SELL 1,675 1,645 (2) 477 5.5 285 42 63 82 40 27 20 18.2 12.2 8.7 12 10 9 54 55 49 1.0 1.5 1.9 7 3
Telecommunication Services Attractive 11,639 134.8 210.5 78.3 49.2 69 33 25 11.6 9.8 8.4 33 42 52 0.8 1.6 1.7 191 97
Transportation
Adani Ports and SEZ BUY 1,129 1,570 39 2,439 28.2 2,160 48 59 65 24 19 17 4.0 3.4 2.9 16 13 11 18 19 18 0.6 0.7 0.8 68 26
Container Corp. SELL 759 740 (3) 463 5.4 609 22 27 32 34 29 24 3.7 3.5 3.3 20 17 15 11 13 14 1.3 1.6 1.9 11 5
Delhivery BUY 325 475 46 242 2.8 747 3 5 9 107 67 36 2.5 2.4 2.2 55 29 18 2 4 6 — — — 10 5
Gateway Distriparks ADD 78 103 32 39 0.5 500 5 6 6 17 14 12 1.9 1.7 1.6 12 10 8 11 13 14 2.4 2.6 2.9 1 1
GMR Airports SELL 74 77 4 785 9.1 6,036 (2) (0) 0 NM NM 171 NM NM NM 31 20 18 855 7 NM — — — 15 7
Gujarat Pipavav Port SELL 164 180 10 79 0.9 483 8 10 11 20 17 15 3.2 2.6 2.2 11 10 8 17 17 16 — — — 3 1
InterGlobe Aviation BUY 4,066 5,100 25 1,571 18.2 383 162 242 256 25 17 16 19.0 8.9 3.8 7 5 4 122 72 44 — — — 48 29
JSW Infrastructure SELL 289 240 (17) 607 7.0 2,119 6 7 8 47 39 35 6.7 5.9 24.5 28 25 24 15 16 16 0.5 0.5 0.6 8 4
Transportation Attractive 6,224 72.1 32.5 23.7 21.2 5.9 4.8 4.0 14.9 11.8 9.8 18.2 20 19.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 163 77
KIE universe 297,811 3,448 25.2 21.4 18.7 3.7 3.3 2.9 15.5 13.1 11.5 14.6 15.5 15.8 1.3 1.5 1.7
Notes:
(a) We have used adjusted book values for banking companies.
(b) 2024 means calendar year 2023, similarly for 2025 and 2026 for these particular companies.
(c) Exchange rate (Rs/US$)= 86.4
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DISCLAIMERS, DISCLOSURES & LEGAL

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Kotak Institutional Equities Research coverage universe
Percentage of companies covered by Kotak Institutional

70%
Equities, within the specified category.
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which
50% Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
provided investment banking services within the previous
12 months.
40% 37.8%
* The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
28.7%
30% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver
5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce = We
19.6% expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next
20%
13.8% 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver less than
9.5% -5% returns over the next 12 months. Our target prices
10% are also on a 12-month horizon basis. These ratings are
3.3% 1.8% used illustratively to comply with applicable regulations. As
1.5%
of 30/09/2024 Kotak Institutional Equities Investment
0%
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL Research had investment ratings on 275 equity securities.
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities

As of September 30, 2024
Ratings and other definitions/identifiers

Definitions of ratings
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Our Fair Value estimates are also on a 12-month horizon basis.Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related
to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the
following designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable
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strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.
NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a
sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in
effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
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January 16, 2025 NIFTY50 [Jan 15]: 23,213

Private Circulation Only.

HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE) BUY

Margins surprise Company data and valuation summary

Prices in this report are based on the market close of

Exhibit 1: HDFC Life—quarterly summary, March fiscal year-ends, 3QFY25

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Underwriting profit up 46% yoy in 2QFY25

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HDFC Life Insurance

Source: LI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

HDFC Life has maintained consistent margins compared with peers

HDFC Life ICICI Prudential Life Max Life SBI Life

Source: LI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Muted growth and stable margins

HDFC Life Insurance

APE up 12% yoy

Source: LI Council, IRDA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Shift in product profile and new surrender values drag margins

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Operating RoEV remains stable at 15% in 3QFY25

Operating RoEV of 15% in 3QFY25

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

HDFC Life Insurance

Growth moderates across products

Strong growth in ULIPs and non-par

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HDFC Life Insurance

Non-par sold mostly through bancassurance

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banca supports overall growth

HDFC Life Insurance

Bancassurance supports overall growth

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Agency force down 9% qoq

108 112 115

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HDFC Life Insurance

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Persistency remains strong in most buckets

Persistency remains strong in most buckets

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Exhibit 15: AUM mix, March fiscal year-ends, 2018-2024, 9MFY25

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HDFC Life Insurance

Cost ratio up 100 bps yoy in 3QFY25

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

We model 17% VNB CAGR

HDFC Life Insurance

We model 17% operating RoEV during FY2025-27E

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Sensitivity to interest rates has inched up

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HDFC Life Insurance

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

We value HDFC Life at 2.5X December 2026E EV

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates