WEBVTT

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Welcome to 21st Century Energy Transition.

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How do we make it work?

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My name is Brad Hayes.

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I'm an adjunct professor in earth and

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atmospheric sciences at
the University of Alberta.

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And together with a diverse team of
experts from all over the energy world,

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I'm going to introduce you to
the 21st century energy transition.

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[MUSIC]

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We've all heard about transitioning
to new energy sources,

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whether it be solar, tidal,
wind or something entirely new.

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We know that humanity has to develop and
use more diverse energy sources.

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But making the transition from
today's energy systems to those of

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the future is not going to be easy.

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In fact,
it's the global challenge of our time.

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Imagine prehistoric humans
living short harsh lives,

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relying on hunting and gathering for
food and living in primitive shelters.

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They had only the energy of their own
muscles and simple tools to survive.

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Today we use a tremendous amount of energy
in our daily lives and without access

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to that energy, we would be living the
lives of people thousands of years ago.

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We use energy and everything we do.

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Growing our food,
building places to live and work,

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powering industries that make our clothing
and all the goods we use in everyday life.

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And fueling our transportation by road,
rail, water and air.

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We produce energy from
a variety of sources, but

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more than 80% of global
energy consumed today,

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is still produced by fossil fuels,
oil, natural gas and coal.

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Can we keep producing so
much energy from fossil fuels?

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Is that sustainable?

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The short answer is no.

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[MUSIC]

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And so the primary global challenge
is how do we provide enough energy

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to meet the needs of everyone on
the planet in a sustainable manner.

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The World Commission on Environment and

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Development was thinking about
sustainability as far back as 1987.

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And to find sustainable
development as development

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that meets the needs of
current generations,

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without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs.

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That means we have to create
energy systems that will

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support the energy needs for
everyone on earth far into the future, but

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we can't ignore the energy needs
of everyone in the world today.

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Imagine, living in a town where people
want to create new alternative energy

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systems, perhaps a new solar array or
wind farm for electricity and

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biofuels plant to produce liquid fuels.

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They do their research and
economic analysis,

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decide that these are great ideas and
get to work.

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They bring in experts to
design the facilities,

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they make deals to acquire the necessary
lands and bring stakeholders onside.

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They engage in environmental and

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geotechnical studies to ensure that the
new infrastructure can be built safely.

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They line up financing, after a year or
so, everything is going well.

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Workers break ground on
the new projects and

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everyone visualizes the success
of their new energy systems.

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They found the answers to replacing
their existing energy supplies, so

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they terminate contracts for
electricity from the regional grid,

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which relies on natural gas.

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They also shut down
natural gas supplies and

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convert the gas stations to biofuels only.

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Then winter comes, electricity and
heating demand skyrockets.

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The people find that some of their new
equipment doesn't work as advertised,

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and that there are long periods of time
when there isn't sufficient sun or

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wind to provide electricity.

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People can't heat their houses or
cook their food.
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Many cars can't operate on 100% biofuel.

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The reality is that we have to
think about next winter and

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all the other winters to come, while
we're creating new energy infrastructure.

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We have to think about all the issues and

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consequences because people's lives
depend on the decisions being right.

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We have to put something better in place
before we can shut down the energy

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sources we are using now for
us to reach sustainable solutions.

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The United Nations has quantified
sustainability by defining 17

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Sustainable Development Goals,
including no poverty, zero hunger,

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quality education, clean water,
decent work, peace and justice.

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The 2020 sustainable
development goals report,

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launched the decade of action to deliver
the sustainable development goals
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around the world,
despite the covid 19 pandemic.

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sustainable development goal number
seven is access to affordable,

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reliable, sustainable and
modern energy for all.

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None of the other goals can be
attained on a global scale without

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achieving SDG number seven.

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Because modern energy is needed
to deliver the goods and

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services underpinning each and every one.

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No poverty, zero hunger, good health,
sustainable cities, peace and justice.

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The energy for growth hub, an energy think
tank based in the United States has built

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upon you and sustainable development goal
number seven, to make the case that every

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human being requires a certain minimum
amount of energy for modern living.

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That means sufficient energy to power
our homes to power our work and

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industry and to enable us to
move around in our daily lives.

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We'll hear from the energy for

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growth hub later in the course as they
explain the modern energy minimum.

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So how much energy will we
need to achieve our goals?

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There are many different scenarios
estimating how much energy the world will

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use in the future and
which sources will produce that energy.

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This graph shows global
primary energy supply and

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how it's delivered in terms
of fuel composition for 2019.

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It also projects energy supply
using three different scenarios for

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the year 2050,
it's from BP's Energy Outlook for 2022.

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The latest in a series of annual
reports tracking energy supply and

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projections for the future.

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There are many such energy
supply projections,

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this one by BP is one of the best known.

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In 2019 the world used just under
600 extra jewels of energy,

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most of it delivered by oil,
gas and coal and

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lesser amounts by nuclear hydro and
renewables.

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BP 2022 envisions three quite
different energy supply pictures for

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2050 each relying on different
assumptions about people's behaviors,

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technology, economics and
government policies.

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In all three scenarios, the total
amount of energy delivered rises,

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reflecting increasing world population.

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In the new momentum scenario
on the far right, oil and

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coal energy decreases significantly
while natural gas rises.

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The big increase in energy supply is
through the growth of modern renewables,

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including wind, solar, geothermal,
biofuels, biomethane and modern biomass.

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We'll talk more about all
these later in the course.

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In the accelerated and net zero scenarios,
BP sees a much more dramatic

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growth of modern renewables in our
energy supply as well as nuclear and

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hydro, with far less energy
coming from oil, gas and coal.

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These two scenarios also envision
considerably less energy demand

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because of better efficiency and
changes in people's behaviors.

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The potential variations in future
energy supply and demand are immense and

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depend upon many assumptions and judgments
about what people will do in the future.

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As we move ahead in the course,
will explore some of these energy demand

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scenarios, there's an elephant in
the room, greenhouse gas emissions and

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climate change studies of climate indicate
that adding greenhouse gasses, primarily

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carbon dioxide and methane to the
atmosphere warms the earth over time and

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can change long term climate and weather
patterns that we've become accustomed to.

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In other words, meeting the sustainable
development goal of energy for

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all means we must do so while addressing
the critical issue of greenhouse gas

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emissions and climate change,
humanities production of carbon dioxide.

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The primary greenhouse gas
has increased continuously

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throughout history as we burn more and
more fuels like wood, coal, oil and

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gas in all sectors of our lives to
generate electricity to produce industrial

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products, especially cement and steel,
to heat and cool our buildings and

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to transport both ourselves and
all the goods we consume.

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We're not going to debate
climate change and its causes.

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In this course,
we're going to assume that greenhouse gas

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emissions are important drivers
of changing climate and

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that it's very important to reduce
anthropogenic human made emissions

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as quickly as possible while still
meeting sustainable development goals.

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So how will we address this global
challenge in this course, we will look

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at energy production, consumption
policy and pathways to reliably and

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affordably meet the global challenge
of energy supply enough for

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all with sustainability
protection of the environment and

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reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

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Let's have a look at what
we're going to talk about.

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Humanity has been transitioning between
energy sources for thousands of years,

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for example, from horsepower
to oil powered transportation,

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history can guide us
in our future actions.

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There are many different
sources of energy, oil, gas,

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coal, nuclear wind, solar,
tidal geothermal and others.

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Each brings its own benefits and
challenges.

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So we'll look at those as well.

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We will require many new resources
to build new energy technologies,

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what economists call supply chains.

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We'll examine those as well.

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Large scale energy storage is a critical
component of alternative energy systems.

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There's lots of talk about batteries, but
batteries alone cannot meet the immense

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range of challenges for
energy storage as well.

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Find out pumped hydro as pictured
here is actually the leading

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energy storage technology today.
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What other types of energy
storage do we need?

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And can hydrogen play a role?

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There are many things we need to
understand about today's energy systems

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and what might change tomorrow will
address some of the many questions that

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need answers in order to move
forward with the energy transition.

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Today is a polarizing time.

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People have different worldviews and
politics, social and

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economic issues and
energy is no different.

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The different needs and

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opinions of different people
are called energy realities.

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The energy reality for some people
is that we must undertake gradual

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transformation of our energy systems
to ensure economic stability.

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The reality for others is that energy
transition is an urgent process required

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to forestall a climate crisis will
examine these seemingly competing

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realities as we look ahead to making
the energy transition happen.

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Many governments and
organizations have announced goals for

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future alternative energy production and
emissions reduction.

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But are we putting the right policies
into place to support those goals?

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And if the goals are to be realized,
we must create realistic pathways or

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mechanisms to achieve them.

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Part of creating realistic pathways is to
consider economics and project management.

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How do we decide which
technology to pursue,

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where to build new energy projects and
how to pay for them?

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We'll conclude the course by discussing
how to generate the right policies and

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create realistic pathways to achieving
the energy transition as soon as possible

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as you can see we have lost to talk about.

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So let's get started in Lesson two,

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we'll be talking about energy
transitions past and future.