50 Drivers of Change in The Public Sector - CHINA
50 Drivers of Change in The Public Sector - CHINA
China
50 drivers of
change in the
public sector
About ACCA Part of our ground-
ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is
breaking Professional
the global body for professional accountants, offering accountants – the future
business-relevant, first-choice qualifications to people of
application, ability and ambition around the world who seek series, this is one of a
a rewarding career in accountancy, finance and management.
series of country reports,
ACCA supports its 198,000 members and 486,000 students following on from our
in 180 countries, helping them to develop successful careers
in accounting and business, with the skills required by global report 50 drivers of
employers. ACCA works through a network of 101 offices change in the public sector.
and centres and more than 7,291 Approved Employers
worldwide, who provide high standards of employee learning It focuses exclusively on
and development. Through its public interest remit, ACCA
promotes appropriate regulation of accounting and conducts identifying the 50 drivers
relevant research to ensure accountancy continues to grow in of change in China that
reputation and influence.
are expected to have an
Founded in 1904, ACCA has consistently held unique core
values: opportunity, diversity, innovation, integrity and
impact on the public
accountability. It believes that accountants bring value to sector and the likely
economies in all stages of development and seek to develop
capacity in the profession and encourage the adoption of timing of these. It also
global standards. ACCA’s core values are aligned to the
needs of employers in all sectors and it ensures that through
assesses how professional
its range of qualifications, it prepares accountants for accountants will need to
business. ACCA seeks to open up the profession to people
of all backgrounds and remove artificial barriers, innovating continue to play a pivotal
its qualifications and delivery to meet the diverse needs of role in the decade ahead.
trainee professionals and their employers.
The global public sector is changing, with To help professional accountants and
The public sector is as complex the landscape being reshaped by a leaders in the public sector prepare for an
as it is diverse and it is not the combination of factors: a growing and uncertain future, ACCA undertook a global
same in any two countries; ageing population, the need for better study to explore which emerging drivers of
what is considered to be part infrastructure and increasing concerns over change could have the biggest impact and
sustainability and consumption. At the to highlight the skills that will be required
of the public sector often varies
same time demands are growing for greater over the period to 2026.
from one country to another. transparency and accountability for public
funds. These challenges are heightened by The recently launched global report is
advances in technology and by economic part of our ground-breaking Professional
and political uncertainty. As the social and accountants – the future series and is
economic environment shifts, all these the first report to focus exclusively on
factors will have serious consequences for identifying the 50 factors that will impact
public sector organisations and their the public sector, the likely timing of these
finance professionals. and how they will shape the future.
Table 1: Ranking of the top 50 drivers of change for the public sector for China
The drivers of change are categorised into eight key themes: Economy; Politics and law; Society and demographics; Business of
government; Science and technology; Environment, energy and resources; The practice of accounting and The accountancy profession.
The top three (ranked) drivers of change for The economic growth rates cited above
A global shock would have each of the eight categories identified were: were in line with market expectations and
a profound impact on were supported by an increase in
the Chinese government, ECONOMY government spending, fixed asset
investment and retail sales when industrial
affecting its ability both to output eased. The OECD expects growth
The level of economic growth
manage the effects in the 2 to be 6.5% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018
wider environment and to (Reuters 2017) as a result of structural
provide public services. Stability of the global economic
changes, and this clearly has an impact on
business confidence, consumer spending
5 infrastructure
and government planning and budgeting.
from elsewhere that are then sold abroad POLITICS AND LAW
As well as external factors, (Cui 2007). At the same time, it has a strong
stability of national raw materials sector which is at risk from Focus of global governance
revenue bases is considered global downturns or shocks. 13 institutions
a prerequisite for the
economic well-being of
Rate of democratic transition
countries, as this affects ‘Since China’s accession to the WTO
in 2001, our trade and economy
22
governments’ ability to has developed rapidly. However,
provide public services. after the financial crisis we have Level of international
witnessed some unwanted adverse 23 political volatility
factors in the global market, such
as unstable geopolitics, global trade
As regards the focus on global
frictions and retrograde steps in
governance institutions, one of the most
economic integration. We were
significant bodies for China is the World
deeply affected by these adverse
Trade Organization (WTO) (WTO n.d.).
impacts, so we think that the
China’s accession to the WTO in December
stability of the global economic
2001, after 15 years of negotiations, was
infrastructure might be
the catalyst for its remarkable story of
a medium- and long-term factor
economic growth.
that profoundly impacts on us.’
China Roundtable participant
Nonetheless, the role of institutions such
as the WTO in China remains fluid. For
instance, the subject of trade is a political
As well as external factors, stability of issue across the world (Azevêdo and Jensen
national revenue bases is considered a 2016). The reality of a changing world and,
prerequisite for the economic well-being of especially, the continuing volatility of
countries, as this affects governments’ international politics could see networks of
ability to provide public services. Chinese governance institutions such as the World
government revenues are derived from Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF),
direct taxes paid by corporations World Trade Organization and the United
(Corporate Income Tax) and households Nations (UN) facing intensifying pressure to
(mainly individual income tax); and indirect adapt their structures to be fit for purpose
taxes, social contributions and revenues in a new economic era.
from state-owned assets and enterprises
(Deloitte 2016). The ratio of tax revenue to In China itself there are questions over
GDP grew from 10.5% in 1994 to 20.1% in governance. Rapid economic growth has
2015, which the government notes provides brought challenges to China, including
‘a strong financial support to China’s high inequality, rapid urbanisation,
economic growth and prosperity’ (State imbalance in geographic development,
Administration of Taxation of the PRC 2016). and environmental concerns. China also
faces demographic pressures relating to an
One emerging economic risk is China’s ageing population and the internal
household debt, which as a proportion of migration of labour. The 12th Five Year Plan
GDP has more than doubled to 40.7% in (2011–2015) and the 13th (2016–2020) seek
less than 10 years. While more developed to address different aspects of economic
nations have higher rates of household and social transition, particularly through
debt, Chinese families are much more measures addressing environmental and
leveraged because disposable income is social problems (CPC n.d.). China is also
lower and so proportionately the costs of currently debating the country’s industrial
social welfare, from pensions to health care, development model and government
are much higher (Reuters 2016). In addition, intervention in market forces (Zhang 2016).
China’s urbanisation rate is not as high as Successfully implementing market-
developed nations’ level of 70%–80%. orientated economic reforms can be seen
as a way of maintaining a stable economy
(Prasad 2016).
Professional accountants – the future: China: drivers of change 7
50 drivers of change in the public sector
Country report: China
As big a concern for China as a stable The population is ageing faster than
‘The government economy is the level of international anywhere else in the world. In 2015, 10% of
has launched the political volatility, which significantly China’s population was over 65 (World
“second child policy” affects China’s economy. In October 2013, Bank 2017b). Estimates indicate that this
to cope with the problem Chinese president Xi Jinping launched an will reach 17.2% by 2030 and 27.6% by
infrastructure plan to support China’s role 2050; currently 48% of the population is
of an ageing population.’ in international affairs through cooperation aged between 25 and 54 (UN 2015).
China Roundtable participant with and investment in countries along the
Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime The ageing population will put pressure
Silk Road (Hancock 2017). This ‘Belt and on those of working age. This is already
Road Initiative’, which would boost China’s happening. In 2013, China introduced a law
global influence, includes US$900bn of that requires children to provide for the
infrastructure investment including ports emotional and physical needs of their
and railways across Asia. The move comes parents, although many employers limit the
at a time when uncertainty in Europe and flexibility of working arrangements for care
the US has reduced consumer confidence givers (Catalyst 2016). China’s dependency
causing, in turn, a downturn in the ratio (the measure of number of
requirement for Chinese-assembled goods. dependants, ie those aged 0–14 years and
This volatility is reflected in China’s trade over 65, compared with those aged 15–64)
surplus, which narrowed to 3.35 trillion could rise to 44% by 2050 (Rapoza 2017).
yuan (about US$486bn) in 2016, down 9.1% In 2015 it was 36.6% (Index Mundi n.d.].
from a year earlier (Xinhuanet 2017).
At the same time, global demographic
SOCIETY AND DEMOGRAPHICS changes will have a significant impact on
the workforce age structure. A younger
Spread of diversity in society population entering the workplace could
8 and the workplace generate pressures and tensions.
Economic productivity and social cohesion
depend on achieving intergenerational
Workforce age structure equity and fair outcomes across the age
9 spectrum and between the genders. Issues
include: womens’high participation in the
Scale and distribution of workforce; few women in leadership roles
17 global population growth with a gender pay gap; discrimination in
employment and promotion, often in
relation to maternity leave; the majority of
China is the most populous country in the
mothers work in China – although
world, with an estimated population in
economic reforms are reducing many child
2017 of 1.38bn, 18.5% of the global
care options; and yet more women are
population (Statista n.d.). On 1 January
college educated than before. As well as
2016 China formally ended its one-child
workplace pressure, society is also
policy, thereby allowing all couples to have
changing: women are marrying later – the
two children, previously only permitted in
mean average age for women to marry was
certain circumstances. This will affect the
25 in 2015, in 2011 it was 23 – and 50% of
scale and distribution of global
highly educated women are unmarried;
population growth. While the population
traditionally, men believed they should be
is expected to reach a peak of just over
more educated than their wives (Catalyst
1.4bn by 2035, it is expected to fall back to
2016). A survey of 128,576 people
1.35bn by 2050 (Worldometers n.d.). India
published on 6 March by zhaopin.com
will overtake China as the most populous
(Global Times 2017), one of the biggest job
country by 2025 (Wang 2010).
recruitment sites in China, found that over
80% of the female respondents believed
A number of significant demographic that gender discrimination still exists in
changes are taking place in China which recruitment. Many women complained that
will precipitate the spread of diversity in under the second-child policy, gender
society and the workplace. discrimination has increased in workplaces.
Professional accountants – the future: China: drivers of change 8
50 drivers of change in the public sector
Country report: China
China has responded to the <IR> 50% of public sector financial professionals
‘There is a need for an movement, introducing a reporting in China (compared with a figure of 33% in
on-going conversation to requirement for SOEs via its State-owned all sectors in China) indicated that the lack
describe the various aspects Assets Supervision and Administration of a transparent career path was a barrier
of the accountant’s role.’ Commission (SASAC) in 2008 (Lovells to their career progression. A lack of value
2009). China’s largest SOEs have placed on their current role (38%) and
China Roundtable participant requirements to report against corporate organisational barriers and culture (35%)
social responsibility (CSR) and economic were also cited as significant factors, as was
development, social progress and the lack of available roles (32%). Only 19%
environmental protection. The Shenzhen, of the respondents indicated that their
Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges next career move would be to remain in
have also introduced reporting CSR the public sector; 40% were looking to
guidelines for listed companies. move to a large private sector business.
China is the second largest economy in the governance and control over use of the
China now plays a central world with a population of over 1.3bn. Its data. Significant growth of China’s labour-
role in the global economy, economy continues to grow at a productivity by 2025 can be expected to
and the public sector in remarkably rapid pace with expectations come from digitalisation of the workplace,
China is essential to its for 2017 to be over 6%. It is the world’s particularly as new business models and
largest exporter and so is very dependent service delivery models evolve.
overall future success.
on the success or otherwise of the global Professional accountants in the public
economy. Behind the headlines, however, sector have opportunities for capitalising
there remain continuing challenges that on emerging technologies and better data
will affect the provision of public services; to help drive value for their organisations.
China’s market reforms will also continue to
evolve. Alongside rapid economic There are also opportunities for better
development over the last 20 years, there reporting. Since 2007, the Accounting
is a closer focus on sound governance and System for Business Enterprises and
interventions to address concerns in areas Auditing Standards has been established,
such as social inequality, rapid indicating a move towards harmonisation
urbanisation, geographic wealth with IFRS. More recently, in 2015, the
distribution and environmental issues. And Chinese Accounting Standards for Business
there are also enormous infrastructure Enterprises and the IFRS Foundation
projects shaping the future destiny of the announced the formation of a joint working
economy, such as the ‘Belt and Road’ group to advance IFRS adoption further in
initiative. All these issues, of course, the country, and there are similar
ultimately affect the country’s public sector aspirations for the application of IPSAS.
in different ways. There are also shifts towards greater
recognition of integrated reporting and
In spite of its relative economic success, corporate social responsibility (CSR)
China also faces other challenges that will reporting requirements for SOEs. In all
need to be carefully managed in the future, these developments, professional
and that will also have an impact on the accountants in China are increasingly key
public sector. Its population is ageing to policy development, providing strong
faster than anywhere else in the world and financial leadership in a challenging
in early 2016 it formally ended its ‘one environment and being integral to
child’ policy. The ageing population could continuing to ensure appropriate
put significant pressure on those of stewardship, which is attractive for inward
working age and workforce structures, as investment purposes. To contribute
well as presenting challenges more broadly effectively, however, they will need to
for the state sector. There are also develop the appropriate skills and
challenges in dealing with gender diversity capabilities, and recognise how these need
and managing the inter-generational to change as the sector develops. ACCA
workforce. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the (2016b) research has also recently
quality and availability of the talent pool suggested specific retention challenges in
was identified as the number one driver of the public sector in China, so effective
change across the public sector in China talent management in the sector will be
yet challenges also remain for education critically important in the future.
provision, partly in response to the deep
structural change that the Chinese A PLATFORM FOR ENGAGEMENT
economy has been undergoing.
The aim for this global project is to provide
Yet, amid all these challenges, there remain a platform for engagement between
significant opportunities for professional China’s public sector organisations,
accountants in the public sector in China. professional accountants and the wider
Technology developments are going to community of stakeholders. No future-
have a significant impact on the overall oriented work of this type can ever hope to
economy and the state sector, and will be definitive, but this report provides an
influence heavily the role of professional important input into the development of
accountants therein. Linked to this is the future public sector strategy. It provides
availability of good data in the public accountancy professionals, and the
sector that can be exploited effectively to organisations in which they work, with a
drive better service delivery and framework for preparing for, adapting to
information, as well as challenges for the and influencing changes.
Acknowledgements 14
ACCA would like to thank those who participated in producing Drivers of Change: China.
You Baojian, The first affiliated hospital, Xi’an Jiao Tong University
ECONOMY
1. Stability of the global economic infrastructure
The global economy, trade and financial flows are dependent on a complex underpinning infrastructure that comprises a range of key agreements,
standards, systems, checks, balances and governance frameworks.
2. The level of economic growth
Growth expectations influence business confidence, consumer spending, government planning and budgeting, and management of the micro and
macro economy.
3. Consideration of alternative economic perspectives
The financial crisis has offered a chance for nations to explore new economic perspectives and models traditionally neglected by mainstream
economic thought. A serious examination of these perspectives could help reformulate the global economic system along more environmentally
sustainable and equitable lines.
4. Total scale and distribution of global inequality and unmet needs
Higher income inequality, (as noted by OECD) within countries correlates with higher unemployment, higher crime rates, lower average health, weaker
property rights, limited access to public services, lower social mobility, more social unrest, and less trust within and across the society, leading to more
fragile democracies. This presents huge challenges for public sector and how it develops policies to meet these challenges.
5. Broadening measurement of public sector value and progress
How we assess value, progress and performance for government is expanding rapidly to take account of non-financial measures of development
encompassing everything from innovation to happiness.
6. Stability of national revenue bases
The stability of national revenue bases is considered a prerequisite for the economic well-being of countries as it affects governments’ ability to
provide public services. Generally, government revenues are derived from direct taxes paid by households (mainly personal income tax) and
corporations; and indirect taxes, social contributions and revenues from state owned assets and enterprises.
7. Manageability of national and international debt
The manageability of national and international debt is important for macroeconomic stability, business confidence and future economic development
prospects. Levels of public debt also have important ramifications for citizen well-being, unemployment levels and the provision of social welfare
services. Globally, the economic outlook is increasingly influenced by the views of policymakers, central bankers and financial institutions on the
sustainability of sovereign debt.
8. Level of investment required to maintain national physical infrastructure
Physical infrastructure forms the economic backbone of all economies. The quality and resilience of a national infrastructure has a direct influence on
the growth, competitiveness and attractiveness to inward investment of a nation’s economy. The standard of economic infrastructure, encompassing
water, waste, transport, energy and communications, affects the quality of life for citizens as well as the ability to meet objectives and commitments
regarding sustainability and reducing carbon emissions.
SOCIETY
13. Scale and distribution of global population growth
A number of key trends are shaping the world’s demographic landscape. The global population is expected to continue to grow at least until 2050,
forecast to reach 9.3 billion. At the same time, overall fertility levels are declining. These global trends mask marked differences at the national and
regional levels. There are numerous cultural, social and economic factors that both affect and are affected by global demography.
Rapidly growing populations also present economic and capacity-building challenges for governments seeking to provide public services.
14. Spread of diversity in society and the workplace
Greater mobility across the globe has a great impact on the level of diversity. Cultural diversity and Increasing levels of female participation in the
workforce is seen as both an important social goal and a vital way of maximising the use of available talent to maintain or bolster economic development.
15. Workforce age structure
A downward trend in global fertility coupled with an ageing society means that each future generation could be smaller than the previous one.
Although the global population is still growing the average age is also rising.
With the abolishment of the default retirement age and workers staying in senior positions longer, organisations have to factor in increased salary and
healthcare costs. As existing retirees re-enter the workforce owing to a combination of low pensions and removed barriers, organisations will have to
consider how to attract, retain and integrate older talent.
16. The workplace expectations of Generation Y, Z and beyond
One of the biggest challenges faced by organisations today is how to understand and respond to the expectations of generations coming into
the workplace.
17. Cost and ease of access to higher education
The economics of education is changing as public budgets shrink and institutions have to compete for funds, raise fees and cut unprofitable courses.
Rising cost of higher education has important ancillary impacts for the level of personal debt for students and their equality of opportunity.
Online channels for delivering education are also changing the nature and delivery of professional development. The uptake of online learning may
increase in emerging economies.
BUSINESS
18. Use of Public Private Partnerships (PPPs)
Governments have been and are increasingly looking to partner with private sector to help fund large scale public infrastructure programmes. This has
led to significant growth in the adoption of PPP/PFI initiatives. However the perception that any risk of failure lies with public sector and reward is with
the private sector.
19. Business leader responsiveness to change and disruption
Momentous economic and social forces are currently reshaping the world. At the same time, disruptive advancements – often enabled by technology
– are affecting everything from industry structures, through societal governance to the nature of human interaction. The ability of organisations to
adapt to new challenges and opportunities created by change and transformation is becoming a key determinant of success or failure in a turbulent
operating environment.
20. Quality and availability of the global talent pool
Access to talent at all levels is consistently identified as a critical future success factor for all organisations. The challenge of securing a suitable flow of
talent is increasingly becoming a top priority for leaders who are finding growth and development ambitions hampered by talent shortages. The
quality of education itself seems to be a critical talent issue.
21. Extent of foreign direct investment in developed and developing economies
Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are an important source of investment and economic growth for many countries. In an uncertain and highly
competitive global economy, ensuring that a destination is seen as a safe location for FDI is becoming an increasing priority for many countries and
their governments.
22. Speed and duration of business cycles
As technologies such as the internet compress time and distance, organisations are under pressure to adapt their structures, processes and systems
on an almost continuous basis. As a result, there is a growing emphasis on the need for speed, flexibility, adaptability and responsiveness. These in
turn demand rapid decision making and shortening cycles for execution of change. Public sector organisations will need to factor this in policy
development and implementation.
23. Experimentation with and adoption of new business models
In an uncertain economic climate, the pace of introduction of new business models could accelerate. These new models have the potential to disrupt and
reinvent industries. As pressure on public finances increase the need to develop new models of financing and alternative revenue and pricing models.
24. Crowd sourced funding for innovation: the consumer as investor
The internet has facilitated the emergence of new finance models that allow organisations to fund product development and service delivery in
advance via crowdsourcing using online platforms. The public sector needs to be able to respond to such rapid changes.
25. Adoption of integrated systems thinking to manage business complexity
The perceived shortening of business cycles is creating major challenges in terms of how we design, manage and change highly complex, globally
interconnected and rapidly evolving businesses. While the timescales for action are shortening, the perceived complexity of the task of making
change happen is growing.
Professional accountants – the future: Appendix: 50 Drivers of change definitions 17
50 drivers of change in the public sector
Country report: China
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