MMSS-04 Rev.
1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 1
Tropical Depression GENER
Issued at 8:00 AM, 16 September 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF AURORA HAS DEVELOPED INTO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION “GENER”
Location of Center (7:00 AM)
The center of Tropical Depression GENER was estimated
based on all available data at 315 km East Northeast of
Casiguran, Aurora (16.9°N, 125.0°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center,
gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 998 hPa
Present Movement
West northwestward at 10 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds extend outwards up to 360 km from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 17.1 124.6 280 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora 55 TD W Slowly
16 September 2024
24-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 16.4 122.4 Over the coastal waters of Casiguran, Aurora 55 TD WSW 20
17 September 2024
36-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 16.5 119.3 Over the coastal waters of Bolinao, Pangasinan 55 TD W 30
17 September 2024
48-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 16.2 117.3 325 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan 65 TS W 20
18 September 2024
60-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 16.4 115.5 520 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan 65 TS W 15
18 September 2024
72-Hour Forecast
705 km West of Baguio City
5:00 AM 16.8 114.0 65 TS WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
19 September 2024
96-Hour Forecast
855 km West of Northern Luzon
5:00 AM 18.3 112.4 55 TD NW 10
(OUTSIDE PAR)
20 September 2024
120-Hour Forecast
1,245 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon
5:00 AM 19.6 109.6 55 TD WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
21 September 2024
Page 1 of 3
Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: RPG
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 1
Tropical Depression GENER
Issued at 8:00 AM, 16 September 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao
The eastern and central portions of Mainland Cagayan (Piat, Santo Niño,
Camalaniugan, Tuao, Lal-Lo, Enrile, Gonzaga, Alcala, Amulung, Santa Teresita,
Baggao, Buguey, Solana, Rizal, Santa Ana, Tuguegarao City, Gattaran,
Peñablanca, Iguig, Lasam, Aparri, Ballesteros, Allacapan, Abulug), Isabela,
Quirino, the eastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castaneda, Kasibu,
Dupax del Norte, Quezon, Diadi, Bayombong, Ambaguio, Bagabag, Villaverde,
1 Aritao, Bambang, Dupax del Sur, Solano), the eastern and southern portions of
Apayao (Conner, Flora, Pudtol, Santa Marcela, Luna, Kabugao), Kalinga, the
- -
Wind threat: eastern and central portions of Mountain Province (Paracelis, Sadanga, Bontoc,
Strong Natonin, Sabangan, Barlig), Ifugao, Aurora, the eastern portion of Nueva Ecija
winds (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Bongabon, Gabaldon, Laur, General Tinio, Rizal,
General Mamerto Natividad, Palayan City), and the northern portion of Mainland
Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real) including Polillo Islands.
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 18 issued at 8:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to the Southwest Monsoon
and Tropical Depression GENER.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be
slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered
from the prevailing wind direction.
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by GENER and “PULASAN” will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following
areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
Today: MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and Davao Region.
Tomorrow (17 September): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and
Davao Region.
Wednesday (18 September): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and
Davao Region.
Page 2 of 3
Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: RPG
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 1
Tropical Depression GENER
Issued at 8:00 AM, 16 September 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Gale Warning is in effect over the western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, the seaboards of Visayas, and the
western, northern, and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts, including all types of
motorbancas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 AM this morning.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Moderate to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
1.5 to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Northern Luzon, the seaboards of Central Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Southern
Luzon.
Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these
conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of the country outside Gale Warning areas.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing
out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
GENER is forecast to move generally west to west southwest until Wednesday afternoon (18 September) before turning west
northwestward to northwestward for the rest of the forecast period. It is forecast to make landfall on either Isabela or Aurora
within the next 24 hours. On the track forecast, GENER may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Wednesday. Outside
PAR, GENER is forecast to make landfall over Hainan, China by Friday late evening to Saturday early morning.
GENER is likely to experience limited intensification over the next two days but is expected to reach Tropical Storm category
by Wednesday after emerging over the West Philippine Sea. It is forecast to maintain a Tropical Storm intensity before
weakening into a Tropical Depression prior to landfall in Hainan, China. Due to its proximity with Luzon landmass, changes
in intensity and track are likely while crossing Luzon.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Page 3 of 3
Prepared by: PCDM Checked by: RPG
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
