SIP - Just An Average Story - April 2024
SIP - Just An Average Story - April 2024
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Traditionally, most of us have been harsh on the idea of being “average”
as we keep saying “that was an average movie”, “she is just an average
student”, etc.
Our argument to that is, “average” is not just good enough, but is ‘the
thing’ one should strive to achieve as far as equity investing by
individual investors is concerned.
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Rupee Cost Averaging :
Automatically invest a particular amount in a scheme periodically i.e. daily, weekly,
monthly or quarterly irrespective of the ups and downs of the market movement. Rupee
cost averaging helps an investor to average out his / her cost by buying more units when
the market is down, and less units when the market is up.
Units Purchased
1300 19
17
1100
15
900 Recovery from the pandemic
COVID-19 led fall 13
and multiple geopolitical tensions
700 11
9
500
7
300 5
Jan/20
Feb/20
Mar/20
Apr/20
May/20
Jun/20
Jul/20
Aug/20
Sep/20
Oct/20
Nov/20
Dec/20
Jan/21
Feb/21
Mar/21
Apr/21
May/21
Jun/21
Jul/21
Aug/21
Sep/21
Oct/21
Nov/21
Dec/21
Jan/22
Feb/22
Mar/22
Apr/22
May/22
Jun/22
Jul/22
Aug/22
Sep/22
Oct/22
Nov/22
Dec/22
Jan/23
Feb/23
Mar/23
Apr/23
May/23
Jun/23
Jul/23
Aug/23
Sep/23
Oct/23
Nov/23
Dec/23
Jan/24
Feb/24
Mar/24
Source: MFI Explorer, Last Date of SIP in the chart above: March 01, 2024
Average
Line
Peak
Price
Bottom
Time
WHAT TO DO?
Buy Low and Sell High? But, this is Capture the average?
impossible to do on a consistent basis This is the smarter thing to do.
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Average
Line
Peak
Price
Bottom
Time
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Indian economy is expected to grow at a healthy rate over the next few decades
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6
HOWEVER...
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-40% -25%
-35%
-60%
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
#Volatility refers to frequent and extreme upward and downward movements in stock prices.
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Greed and Fear in Market Cycles
Human beings are guided by 2 extreme emotions "Greed" and "Fear", which prevent
them from taking sound investment decisions.
When there are excesses in the stock market, Greed sets in, which in turn results in
major correction, thereby triggering the Fear psychology. Most of the investors are
trapped in the greed and fear cycles by buying in greed and selling in fear, resulting
in a bad investment experience.
Just made handsome gains Just made large losses An SIP Investor
I am sure I can repeat my I should never have made I am ready for the long
Approach to investing success these investments journey ahead
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Events that have impacted the markets :
2013 Taper Tantrum ( Surge in US Yields), High Twindelicit in India (CAD and
Fiscal Deficit)
2014 NDA forms Central Government
2020 COVID-19
Let's assume an investor who started an SIP of ₹1,000 in HDFC Flexi Cap Fund - Growth,
and continued this till March 31, 2024
1800
1,604.76
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200 32.04
0
Jan-95
Jun-95
Nov-95
Apr-96
Sep-96
Feb-97
Jul-97
Dec-97
May-98
Oct-98
Mar-99
Aug-99
Jan-00
Jun-00
Nov-00
Apr-01
Sep-01
Feb-02
Jul-02
Dec-02
May-03
Oct-03
Mar-04
Aug-04
Jan-05
Jun-05
Nov-05
Apr-06
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12
May-13
Oct-13
Mar-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Dec-17
May-18
Oct-18
Mar-19
Aug-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Nov-20
Apr-21
Sep-21
Feb-22
Jul-22
Dec-22
May-23
Oct-23
Mar-24
HDFC Flexi Cap Fund - Growth (NAV) Average Cost per Unit (in ₹)
Can you guess what is average cost of the units accumulated via SIP?
Answer - ₹32.0
The reason for lower average cost is the disciplined approach to investing where more
units were accumulated at lower NAV during the early stage of the SIP period.
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We can broadly divide two types of people who need
SIP for investing
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87%
79%
Source: Internal
Based on tenure at the time of registration of all live SIPs during December 2023.
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No doubt laziness and forgetfulness are negative human traits,
but can prove useful in stock markets for individual investor for
“staying invested” for a long time.
Do something today that your future self will thank you for
- Sean Patrick Flanery
Success is not easy and it is certainly not for the lazy - Anonymous
Warning: These quotes may not be applicable to individual investors in the world
of Equity Investing
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The below illustration is to showcase how you need to invest larger sums as
you delay your retirement saving and how much it costs you in the long run.
S&P BSE Sensex has delivered a rate of return of 14.38% for a period of 28 years
(PRI values considered), 14.84% for a period of 20 years, and 14.97% for a period
of 10 years (TRI values considered).
…A delay in 10 years would have cut your retirement corpus by more than 50% at
every step even though you may have invested the same amount over time.
*Returns: Mean of 28-year daily rolling returns of S&P BSE Sensex between 03/04/2007 and 29/02/2024, Mean of
20-year daily rolling returns of S&P BSE Sensex TRI between 19/08/2016 and 29/02/2024, Mean of 10-year daily rolling
returns of S&P BSE Sensex TRI between 21/08/2006 and 29/02/2024. Since the values of S&P BSE Sensex TRI are
available from 19-Aug-1996, PRI values have been used for the calculation of rolling returns for the 28-year period
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SIP helps to stay disciplined in your investment journey
A small sacrifice Skip 1 cigarette per Skip 1 beer over Spend less on
day i.e., 365 weekend i.e., 52 movies / dinner
cigarettes in a year beers over a year
If you had invested the amount saved annually in S&P BSE Sensex for the
next 30 years, the accumulated amount as on February 29, 2024 is as follows:
Accumulated
amount at the end 30,06,789 71,39,408 82,37,778
of 30 years (in ₹)
Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left
after saving - Warren Buffet
*Returns: Mean of 30-year daily rolling returns of S&P BSE Sensex between 06/04/2009 and 29/02/2024.
Since the values of S&P BSE Sensex TRI are available from 19-Aug-1996, PRI values have been used for the
calculation of rolling returns
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and is not a guarantee of any future returns.
HDFC AMC / HDFC Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering / communicating any indicative yield on
investments made in the scheme(s).
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The “right time to start an SIP” still tends to elude a lot of investors. However, this is actually
counter-intuitive in SIPs as the main idea of starting an SIP is to eliminate the need to time
the market.
Example of starting regular investing early resulting in long term:
HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund (launched in 2007)
Take the event of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 where NIFTY corrected by almost 60%
in a span of 9 months (January 2008 to October 2008). There could have been investors who
would have started an SIP near the peak in January 2008 and some who would have started
one closer to the bottom in November 2008.
SIP from GFC peak (From January 2008 till March 2024)
Invested Amount* Profit Market Value of Investment* Return
SIP in
(in ₹ lakh) (in ₹ lakh)* (in ₹ lakh) (% CAGR)
HDFC Mid-Cap
Opportunities Fund 19.5 111.1 130.6 20.7
Benchmark (NIFTY
19.5 92.3 111.8 19.1
Mid Cap 150 TRI)
*As on March 31, 2024, SIP of ₹10,000 on first day of month considered
SIP from GFC bottom (From November 2008 till March 2024)
Invested Amount* Profit Market Value of Investment* Return
SIP in
(in ₹ lakh) (in ₹ lakh)* (in ₹ lakh) (% CAGR)
HDFC Mid-Cap
Opportunities Fund 18.5 95.9 114.4 21.1
Benchmark (NIFTY
18.5 82.6 101.1 19.7
Mid Cap 150 TRI)
*As on March 31, 2024, SIP of ₹10,000 on first day of month considered
Common disclaimer for both the tables: For complete performance details, refer Page 30. Past performance may or may not be
sustained in future and is not a guarantee of any future returns. HDFC AMC / HDFC Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering /
communicating any indicative yield on investments made in the scheme(s).
For complete performance of the Scheme in SEBI prescribed format, please refer page no 30
Whether investors started an SIP when NIFTY was above 6,000 in January 2008 or when NIFTY
was close to 3,000 in November 2008, it did not have a material bearing on their SIP returns
over the long term. If at all anything, the delay on account of waiting for the bottom and
starting the SIP later would have resulted in less wealth creation to the tune of ~16 lakh
(₹130.6 lakh vs ₹114.4 lakh). In contrast, invested amount would have been lower by only
₹1 lakh (₹19.5 lakh vs ₹18.5 lakh or ₹10,000*10 installments). 18
To benefit from SIP, one should invest on periodic basis and not allow emotions to
drive their investment decisions.
Below table shows example of two individuals, Mr. A and Mr. B, both started their SIP
journey in HDFC Flexi Cap Fund on 1st April 2018. During the beginning of COVID 19,
Mr. A paused his SIP for 6 months between April 2020 and October 2020 (driven by fear
of COVID 19 impact on markets) while Mr. B continued with his disciplined approach of
investing regularly. Here are the results:
A B
Difference 1,85,997
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and is not a guarantee of any future returns.
HDFC AMC / HDFC Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering / communicating any indicative yield on
investments made in the scheme(s).
For complete performance of the Scheme in SEBI prescribed format, please refer page no 30 19
Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) in mutual funds can be done at multiple frequencies – daily,
weekly, monthly and quarterly. A common dilemma in an investor’s mind tends to be the choice
of frequency when doing an SIP in a scheme. Against this backdrop, let us look into the data to
clear that dilemma.
Let’s consider 4 frequencies – daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly of an investor’s ongoing SIPs in
the Regular Plan of HDFC Flexi Cap Fund (the Scheme). The chart below shows the SIP returns
generated under different frequencies vis-à-vis NIFTY 500 TRI over a 5-year and 10-year period.
HDFC HDFC
Frequency NIFTY 500 TRI Frequency NIFTY 500 TRI
Flexi Cap Fund Flexi Cap Fund
of SIP* (SIP Returns) of SIP* (SIP Returns)
(SIP Returns) (SIP Returns)
Source: MFI Explorer, Returns as on March 31, 2024. *SIP done at the end of every day / week / month / quarter.
Returns are compounded annualized in nature.
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and is not a guarantee of any future returns.
For complete performance of the Scheme in SEBI prescribed format, please refer page no 30
As we can observe from the table above, among the frequencies chosen, the divergence
in returns for the Scheme and NIFTY 500 TRI for both time frames has been very low.
It turns out that starting an SIP, and continuing with it for a long period, is more
important than the frequency of SIP.
01 02 03
Let your SIPs keep Aim to build a Convenient way to increase SIP
pace with inflation sizeable corpus vs manually registering for new SIPs
An Illustration
Topping up / increasing a ₹3,000 SIP by just 10% every year increases the corpus at the end of 10 years by 45%
*Returns: Mean of 10-year daily rolling returns of S&P BSE Sensex TRI between 21/08/2006 and 29/02/2024.
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and is not a guarantee of any future returns.
HDFC AMC / HDFC Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering / communicating any indicative yield on investments
made in the scheme(s). 21
Assume you had taken a home loan of ₹32 lakh in 2004 at the rate of 8.25%^. The EMI
payable for 15 year period would have been ₹31,044. However, if you had extended the
loan period to 20 years, the same EMI would have reduced to ₹27,266.
So rather than taking a shorter loan period, you could have opted for a 20 year loan
period and started an SIP of the differential amount i.e. ₹3,778 in an Equity Mutual Fund
scheme of your choice.
Who is smarter at
repaying a home loan
of ₹32 Lakhs? Mr. X Mr. Y
^Source: SBI Home Loans: 8.25% is the floating rate for a home loan (greater than 10 years).
*Returns: Mean of 15-year daily rolling returns of S&P BSE Sensex TRI between 19/08/2011 and 29/02/2024.
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and is not a guarantee of any future returns. HDFC AMC / HDFC
Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering / communicating any indicative yield on investments made in the scheme(s).
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Alternatively, if you could not opt for a 20 year home loan due to
any reason, you could have chosen to set aside a marginal amount
(0.25% of loan amount of ₹32 lakh) from your savings and started
an SIP with a aim to recover the interest on your loan.
*Source: SBI Home Loans: 8.25% is the floating rate for a home loan (greater than 10 years). #Returns: Mean of 15-year daily rolling
returns of S&P BSE Sensex TRI between 19/08/2011 and 29/02/2024. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and
is not a guarantee of any future returns. HDFC AMC / HDFC Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering / communicating any
indicative yield on investments made in the scheme(s).
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Channelize your SIP into three different asset classes
SIP
HDFC Flexi Cap Fund HDFC Corporate Bond Fund HDFC Gold Fund^
HDFC Mid-Cap
HDFC Medium Term Debt Fund
Opportunities Fund
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25
How much is enough?
Inflation
The above chart is only an illustrative example to show rising cost of education and not based on actual data.
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₹
What to do? How to Do?
How much do I need to invest The amount you need to invest is a result
every month? of the rate of return and time.
30 14.57% ₹ 1,576
40 14.84% ₹ 6,752
*Returns: Mean of 30-year daily rolling returns of S&P BSE Sensex between 03/04/2007 and 29/02/2024, Mean of 20-year daily rolling
returns of S&P BSE Sensex TRI between 19/08/2016 and 29/02/2024, Mean of 10-year daily rolling returns of S&P BSE Sensex TRI
between 21/08/2006 and 29/02/2024. Since the values of S&P BSE Sensex TRI are available from 19-Aug-1996, PRI values have been
used for the calculation of rolling returns for the 30-year period
Key Takeaways
2,000 1,758.79
1,800 (₹17.59 crore)
1,600
Amount (in ₹ lakh)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
546.36
600 (₹5.46 crore)
400
200
35.1
(₹35.1 lakh)
0
1995
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Market Value of Invesment in HDFC Flexi Cap Fund (as on March 31, 2024)
Cumulative Amount Invested (as on March 31, 2024)
Market Value of Invesment in Benchmark (NIFTY 500 TRI)(as on March 31, 2024)
A SIP of ₹10,000 per month in HDFC Flexi cap Fund since Inception (January 01, 1995)
would have grown to ₹17.59 crore as on March 31, 2024.
For complete performance of the Scheme in SEBI prescribed format, please refer page no 30.
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Clarity of Purpose:
Clearly defined financial goals bring focus and alignment to
your investment decisions.
Emotions Management:
Goal-based SIPs reduce the impact of emotional biases, such as fear,
greed, or impulsive reactions to market fluctuations, on your
investment choices.
Ongoing Monitoring:
Regularly tracking your progress towards achieving your financial goals
ensures that you remain on the right path.
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SIP since inception* of ₹10,000 invested systematically on the first business day of every month (total investment ₹35.10 lakh)
in HDFC Flexi Cap Fund would have grown to ~₹1,759.58 Lacs on March 31, 2024 (refer below table).
A: SIP Performance - HDFC Flexi Cap Fund - Regular plan - Growth Option
Total Amount Invested (₹ in Lacs) 35.10 18.00 12.00 6.00 3.60 1.20
Market Value as on March 31, 2024 (₹ in Lacs) 1,759.58 70.08 30.76 11.57 5.33 1.45
Additional Benchmark Returns (%)## 14.09 13.79 14.84 18.52 16.79 27.35
CAGR returns are computed after accounting for the cash flow by using XIRR method (investment internal rate of return). The above investment simulation
is for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as a promise on minimum returns and safeguard of capital. SIP - Systematic Investment
Plan.Since Inception Date = Date of First allotment in the Scheme / Plan. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and is not a guarantee
of any future returns.
C: Other schemes managed by Ms. Roshi Jain, fund manager of HDFC Flexi Cap Fund who
manages total 3 schemes
HDFC ELSS Tax saver January 13, 2022 45.63 25.71 17.00
Common notes for tables B & C: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and is not a guarantee of any future returns. Returns greater
than 1 year period are compounded annualised (CAGR). Load is not taken into consideration for computation of above performance(s). Different plans viz.
Regular Plan and Direct Plan have different expense structures. The expenses of the Direct Plan under the scheme will be lower to the extent of the
distribution expenses/commission charged in the Regular Plan. The above returns are of Regular Plan-Growth Option. Returns as on 31st March 2024.
Benchmark and Additional Benchmark performance is computed as on 28th March, 2024, since values for 31st March 2024 are not available.
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PRODUCT LABELING:
THIS PRODUCT IS SUITABLE FOR
NAME OF SCHEME RISKOMETER
INVESTORS WHO ARE SEEKING*
Moder
oderate Highately
• To generate long-term capital to te M Hi
HDFC ELSS Tax saver w era
appreciation / income
Mo Lo
gh
d
An open ended equity linked savings
scheme with a statutory lock in of • Investment predominantly of equity &
Very
Low
High
3 years and tax benefit equity related instruments
RISKOMETER
Investors understand that their principal will be at
HDFC Top 100 Fund • To generate long-term capital very high risk
appreciation / income
An open ended equity scheme • Investment predominantly in Large-Cap
predominantly investing in large
cap stocks
companies
* Investors should consult their financial advisers, if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
For latest Riskometer, investors may refer to the Monthly Portfolios disclosed on the website of the Fund viz. www.hdfcfund.com
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THIS PRODUCT IS SUITABLE FOR
NAME OF SCHEME INVESTORS WHO ARE SEEKING* RISKOMETER
gh
d
Very
High
Low
*Investors should consult their financial advisers, if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
For latest Riskometer, investors may refer to the Monthly Portfolios disclosed on the website of the Fund viz. www.hdfcfund.com
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BENCHMARK AND SCHEME RISKOMETERS:
NAME AND RISKOMETER
NAME OF SCHEME(S) RISKOMETER OF THE SCHEME(S)
OF BENCHMARK
Views expressed above are indicative and should not be construed as investment advice or as a substitute for financial
planning. Due to the personal nature of investments, investors are advised to consult their financial advisors before investing.
$Macaulay Duration (Duration) measures the price volatility of fixed income securities. It is often used in the comparison of
interest rate risk between securities with different coupons and different maturities. It is defined as the weighted average time
to cash flows of a bond where the weights are nothing but the present value of the cash flows themselves. It is expressed in
years. The duration of a fixed income security is always shorter than its term to maturity, except in the case of zero coupon
securities where they are the same.
^Note: Investors in the Scheme shall bear the recurring expenses of the Scheme in addition to the expenses of other schemes
in which Fund of Funds scheme makes investment (subject to regulatory limits)
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THANK YOU
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