CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.0 Introduction
This chapter identifies the methods and procedures that were employed in the investigation,
collection, analysis and evaluation of climatic data used in this study.
3.1 Data Required
The data required for this research are climatic data and flight delay dataset for the Muritala
Mohammed International Airport. Climatic data include; maximum and minimum
temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hour and wind speed between 2018-2022.
3.2 Source of Data
The climatic data were sourced from the Archival records of the Nigerian Meteorological
Agency (NIMET), Kwara State. NIMET stands as the agency saddled with the responsibility
of measuring, controlling, and storage of meteorological data in Nigeria. Flight delay and
cancellation data will be sourced from Nigerian Airspace Management Agency.
3.3 Method of Data Collection
Since the data needed for this study are secondary in nature, climatic elements and flight data
were collected from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and Nigerian Airspace
Management Agency respectively.
3.4 Method of Data Analysis
The statistical methods employed in this research are both descriptive and inferential
statistics.
3.4.1 Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive statistics are brief descriptive coefficients that summarizes a given data set,
which can either be a representation of the entire population or a sample of it. Measures of
central tendency used in this study include the mean while measures of variability include the
standard deviation.
The Mean
The mean is the summation of number of observations divided by the number of variables.
This statistical technique was used in summarizing the data. This statistical technique is used
to calculate the average amount of temperature and other climatic data over a period of about
30 years.
The formula is given below;
∑x
Mean (x) = n --------------- Equation 3
f = frequency of the set of data
x = set of data
ii. Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a method used for calculating dispersion. It tells how far or near a
score is to the mean score. It is calculated as the square root of the arithmetic mean of a given
observation. This was to measure the dispersion among the climatic variables.
The formula is of the form
--------------------- Equation 4
i = class interval
= each value of data set
= the arithmetic mean of data
N = the total number of data
3.4.2 Inferential Statistics
This form of statistical tool involves drawing a generalization about the properties of the
whole population. It therefore involves induction reasoning whereby the user is interested in
determining whether the findings form a small finite group or for all potential observations
that could be made similarly, inferential statistics is also used to draw inference and arrive at
a valid conclusion. It shows the relationship between variables respectively. Inferential
statistical tools such as Time Series Analysis and Correlation Analysis were used in this
study.
I. Time Series Analysis
A series of observations assumed by a variable over successive time periods is called a time
series. The method of analyzing and interpreting data for such series is called time series
analysis. Time series analysis helps to fit an array of time bound data on a line of best fit. It
also helps to show the type of trends existing in the data graphically. Time series will be used
to show the trend of climatic variables.
The trend line equation of a time series data is shown below:
Y=A+B(X) ---------------- Equation 5
Where, A= Intercept
B= Rate of change per time
X= Coded values of years.
E= Error terms of the estimate.
Ii. Correlation Analysis
This is statistical techniques that measure the degree of linear relationship between two
variables; there is a number of coefficients of correlation that measures linear relationship.
For any of this correlation, the range of values of coefficient of correlation is between -1 and
+1 i.e -1<r<+1. Correlation analysis will be used to give the relationship between the
parameters. It will be used to analyze the relationship between selected climatic variables and
rate of urban sprawl.
n ( ∑ xy ) −(∑ x )(∑ y )
r= -------------- Equation 6
√¿ ¿ ¿
r = correlation efficient
n= total number of years.
x= dependent variable (Flight Operations).
Y= independent variable (climatic parameters).
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT
The Chapter is sub-sectioned into patterns of weather parameters in the area, major causes of
flight delay/cancellation, critical weather pattern hazardous to flight operations and the
relationship between flight delay/cancellation and weather elements.
4.1 Pattern of Weather Parameters
4.1.1 Descriptive Characteristics of Weather Elements
4.1.1.2 Yearly Description
Table 4.1 below provides a description of the weather elements for the entire year. The data
used covered a 5-year period, from 2018 to 2022. With a mean minimum temperature of
232.54°C, a standard deviation of 0.59, and a coefficient of variation of 2.61% for the study
period, it can be concluded that the minimum temperature data were uniformly distributed.
The maximum temperature recorded during the study period was heterogeneous, as indicated
by the mean temperature of 32.44°C, the standard deviation of 45.00, and the coefficient of
variation of 138.7%. Also noted throughout the study period was a mean relative humidity of
76.01%, with a standard deviation of 1.73 and a coefficient of variation of 2.28%. This
implies that the relative humidity measured during the study period is uniform. In other
words, relative humidity was uniformly distributed over the course of the study period.
Table 4.1: Yearly Description
Weather Parameters Mean Std. Deviation CV
Minimum Temperature 22.54 0.59 2.61%
Maximum Temperature 32.44 45.00 138.7%
Relative Humidity 76.01 1.73 2.28%
Rainfall 107.52 24.91 23.17%
Sunshine 6.52 0.31 4.75%
Source: Author’s Computation 2023
As indicated in Table 4.1 above, the mean rainfall recorded during the period under study
was 107.52mm with a standard deviation of 24.91 and a coefficient of variation of 23.17%;
this implies that the rainfall recorded during the period under study was heterogenous.
Further, the mean sunshine was 6.52 with a standard deviation of 0.31 and a coefficient of
variation of 4.75% which implies that sunshine recorded was homogenous.
4.1.2 Pattern of Weather Elements (Annual)
4.1.2.1 Pattern of Minimum Temperature
Figure 4.1 Presents the pattern of minimum temperature for the period under study. The
lowest temperature of 22.0°C was recorded in 2020 while the highest of 23.5°C was recorded
in 2019. The trend line equation y= 0.0292x + 23.157 is positive; this shows that there was an
increase in minimum temperature received in the area during the period under study. This
increase in temperature is an affirmation of the effect of climate change in the area.
Pattern of Minimum Temperature
2018 - 2022
24
23.5
23
22.5
22
21.5
21
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Pattern of Minimum Temperature 2018 - 2022
Figure 4.1: Pattern of minimum temperature 2018 - 2022
Source: Author’s Computation 2023
4.1.2.2 Pattern of Maximum Temperature
The pattern of maximum temperature for the period under study is presented in Figure 4.2.
The lowest maximum temperature of 31.4°C was recorded in 2020 while the highest of
33.2°C was recorded in 2019.
Pattern of Maximum temperature
2018 -2022
33.5
33
32.5
32
31.5
31
30.5
30
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Pattern of Maximum temperature 2018 -2022
Figure 4.2: Pattern of Maximum Temperature 2018-2022
Source: Author’s Computation (2023)
The trend of maximum temperature is downward sloping; this implies that there was a
decrease in maximum temperature recorded during the period under study. The trend line
equation y=-0.0118x + 31.213 shows a predictive decrease rate of 0.018%.
4.1.2.3 Pattern of Relative Humidity
Figure 4.3 shows the pattern of relative humidity in the study area. The lowest relative
humidity of 74% was recorded in 2019 while the highest of 79% was recorded in 2020. The
trend of relative humidity is upward sloping; this implies that there was an increase in relative
humidity recorded in the area during the study period. The equation y=0.0082x + 82.093
which is positive shows a predictive increase rate of 0.08%. This increase in relative humidity
could be attributed to increase in rainfall, decrease in maximum temperature and increase in
cloud cover.
Pattern of Relative Humidity 2018-
2022
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Pattern of Relative Humidity 2018-2022
Figure 4.3: Pattern of Relative Humidity (2018-2023)
Source: Author’s Computation (2023)
4.1.2.4 Pattern of Rainfall
The pattern of rainfall in the study area during the period under study is presented in Figure
4.4. The lowest rainfall of 101.7mm was recorded in 2019 while the highest of 113.4mm was
recorded in 2020. The trend line equation y= 0.8758x + 115.18 is positive; this implies that
there was increase in rainfall received in the area during the period under study. The equation
also shows a predictive increase rate of 8% per annum. Increase in rainfall could be attributed
to climate change.
Pattern of rainfall 2018-2022
115
110
105
100
95
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Pattern of rainfall 2018-2022
Figure 4.4: Pattern of Rainfall (2018-2022)
Source: Author’s Computation (2023)
4.1.2.5 Pattern of Sunshine
Figure 4.5 shows the pattern of sunshine in the study area. The lowest sunshine of 6.1 was
recorded in 2020 while the highest of 6.6 was recorded in 2018. The trend of sunshine was
upward sloping; this implies that there was an increase in sunshine recorded in the area
during the period under study. The equation y= 0.0138x + 4.8316 is positive with a predictive
increase rate of 0.13%
Pattern of Sunshine 2018-2022
7
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
5.8
5.6
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Pattern of Sunshine 2018-2022
Figure 4.5: Pattern of Sunshine Hours (2018-2022)
Source: Author’s Computation 2023
4.2 Total Number of Flight Operations From Year 2018 to 2022
During the period from 2018 to 2022, the total number of flight operations showed some
fluctuations as seen in figure 4.6. In 2019, there was a significant increase in flight
operations, reaching a peak of 4,904 flights. However, in 2020, there was a notable decline
with only 1,570 flights recorded, possibly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on
the aviation industry. The following years, 2021 and 2022, saw a gradual recovery in flight
operations, with 3,461 and 4,179 flights respectively. These figures highlight the dynamic
nature of the aviation sector and the influence of various factors on flight operations. The
implication of the fluctuating flight operations data is that the aviation industry is highly
influenced by various factors. The significant increase in flights in 2019 suggests a growing
demand for air travel. However, the sharp decline in 2020 due to the pandemic highlights the
industry's vulnerability to external events. The subsequent recovery in 2021 and 2022
indicates resilience and a positive trend towards regaining stability. It shows that the industry
can adapt and bounce back from challenges. The fluctuation in flight operations is primarily
influenced by factors such as travel demand, economic conditions, and external events like
the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, the increase in flights reflected a strong demand for air
travel. However, the pandemic caused a significant decrease in 2020 as travel restrictions and
safety concerns impacted the industry. The subsequent recovery in 2021 and 2022 suggests a
gradual return to normalcy as restrictions eased and confidence in travel increased. These
fluctuations highlight the industry's sensitivity to external factors and its ability to adapt and
recover over time.
Pattern of flight 2018-2022
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Pattern of flight 2018-2022
Figure 4.6: Pattern of Flight (2018-2022)
Source: Author’s Computation 2023
4.3 Relationship between Meteorological Variables and Flights
The relationship between flights and weather elements are presented in Table 4.2. The result
(-0.4814) Maximum temperature, (-0.721) minimum temperature and (-0.751) sunshine hours
are inversely related to flight operations. This implies that an increase of decrease in rainfall
will significantly influence bird strike causing flight delays in the study area.
Table 4.2: Relationship Between Flights and Weather Elements
Variables Max Temp Min Temp RH Sunshine Rainfall
Diversion -0.814** -0.721** 0.779** -0.751** 0.831**
Source: Author’s Computation (2023)
The result further implies that the higher the rate of thermal properties, the lesser the missed
flights while rainfall (0.449), Relative Humidity (0.608*) were proportionately related to
flight operations. Hence, the frequent the flights, the higher the moisture content (Rain,
Relative Humidity and cloud) in the air. This result has a pronounced effect on flight
operation in the study area.
4.3.1 The Critical Weather Pattern Hazardous to Flight Operations
Multiple Linear regression was carried out on Flight operations, maximum temperature,
minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine, and rainfall. The dependent variables are
Flight operations while the independent variables are minimum temperature, maximum
temperature, relative humidity, sunshine, and rainfall.
Flight operations are significantly associated with other elements asides weather parameters.
This result shows flight delays are influenced by weather.
Table 4.3: Critical Weather Pattern Hazardous to Flight Operations
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
Flights operations 0.899 0.808 0.579 2.47347
a. Predictors: (Constant), cloud cover, rainfall, min temp, max temp, rh, sunshine
Source: Author’s Computation (2022)
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
5.1 Summary of findings
The study revealed that there is a statistical relationship between weather parameters and
flight operations in the study area. The positive relationships imply an increase in the weather
parameters will lead to an increase inflight operations. Relative humidity (0.779) and rainfall
(0.831) show a positive relationship towards flight operations, this implies that the higher
these weather parameters, the greater delays and cancellations of flights that will be
experienced. The multiple regression analysis shows that 87.9% of flight diversions are as a
result of weather elements examined while 12.1% of flight diversions are as a result of other
variables. During the rainy season, visibility is poor during thunderstorms thus this can lead
to flight diversion. Also, during the dry season, fog and dust can also affect visibility. The
study revealed that during the period from 2018 to 2022, the total number of flight operations
showed some fluctuations as seen in figure 4.6. In 2019, there was a significant increase in
flight operations, reaching a peak of 4,904 flights. However, in 2020, there was a notable
decline with only 1,570 flights recorded, possibly due to the impact of the COVID-19
pandemic on the aviation industry. The following years, 2021 and 2022, saw a gradual
recovery in flight operations, with 3,461 and 4,179 flights respectively. These figures
highlight the dynamic nature of the aviation sector and the influence of various factors on
flight operations. The implication of the fluctuating flight operations data is that the aviation
industry is highly influenced by various factors. The significant increase in flights in 2019
suggests a growing demand for air travel. However, the sharp decline in 2020 due to the
pandemic highlights the industry's vulnerability to external events. The subsequent recovery
in 2021 and 2022 indicates resilience and a positive trend towards regaining stability. It
shows that the industry can adapt and bounce back from challenges.
5.2 Conclusion
The study of annual total number of Flights operations were regressed with the five weather
parameters collected to explore the degree of relationships. It was found that there were
relationships but the degree of influence of these weather parameters vary. Hence, different
weather parameters affect flights differently, therefore some of these weather variables will
not have adverse on flight efficiency. There are other causative factors such as negligence of
operators, mechanical problems, runway capacity, deliberate delays caused by airline, human
error etc are also responsible for flight delays and diversion. Delays in aviation is not
completely avoidable due to the unpredictive nature of weather, this gives room for better
management of weather-related risks. Since delay is inevitable, there should be great focus on
effective delay management and accurate weather forecasting. Hence, proper planning,
routine checks, accurate forecast, mandating new trainings and courses for pilots,
meteorologist and disaster managers will enhance the efficiency of flight operations and
minimize delays.
5.3 Recommendations
The study however recommended thus;
i. there is need for proper documentation of data climatic and flight data in order to
aid research work;
ii. the aviation body concerns with safety rules should ensure that flight reports are
accurately prepared and strict compliance to weather reports and safety
regulations to mitigate air disasters;
iii. continuous trainings and professional courses should be mandated for personnel
involved in various aspects of aviation for better disaster management and
accurate forecast of weather;
iv. maintenance culture should be imbibed by all and sundry in the aviation industry
to ensure the state of art equipment are properly;
v. weather-related risks should be properly and timely assessed so as to give room
for adequate mitigation measures;
