Carnelian Structural Shift Fund Presentation - January 2024
Carnelian Structural Shift Fund Presentation - January 2024
JANUARY 2024
Firm Overview
• A boutique investment management firm founded by industry veterans in April 2019 with an
aspiration to create a best-in-class asset management platform known for its values, expertise and
best practices
• Specialize in Indian equity investments for HNI’s, family offices, institutions & partners’ own capital,
across different strategies and caps & sectors
• Founding team of three motivated, passionate professionals with complementary skill sets & strong
track record of building leadership businesses in the capital market domain and enduring research
platform
• Supported by an equally motivated and passionate team of 36 professionals
• 100% founder owned – reinforcing trust and value for all stakeholders; skin in the game
• Technology, risk & compliance and process driven DNA
• We believe in investing in “quality at a reasonable price” and “risk diversification through forensic
analysis”
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Founder’s Profiles
• Chartered Accountant & CFA Charter holder, having ~ 26 years of capital markets experience, most recently
as the CEO of Edelweiss Securities Ltd, where he spent 17 years incubating & building several businesses to
leadership including Institutional Equities business and Equity Research
• Has a strong business acumen & deep understanding of Capital markets; enjoys strong reputation with
Corporate India
• Associated with several industry bodies and committees:
• Member of the CII National Council on Corporate Governance & FICCI Capital Markets Committee
VIKAS KHEMANI • Serving as an invited member of Executive Council of Bombay Management Association
(CA, CFA, CS) • Member of Young Presidents Organization (YPO) a global forum for entrepreneurs and CEOs
• ~ 26 years of financial services experience, most recently as the Dy. Head - Institutional Equity research, Head
- forensic, thematic & mid cap research at Edelweiss Securities
• Known for his non-consensus research. Pioneered differentiated forensic research, popularly known as
“Analysis Beyond Consensus” (ABC research)
• ABC research has helped investors across the globe to take informed investment decisions based on true
numbers instead of reported numbers, thus “avoiding pitfalls”- one of Carnelian’s virtues
• Has represented several committees of the CFA Institute including Chairperson of India advocacy committee
MANOJ BAHETY
(CA, CFA) and member of the US based global CDPC committee
• ~21 years of experience in the financial service industry including 7 years at Edelweiss Financial Services
across Investment Banking & Institutional Equities businesses including Equity Research & Institutional Sales
• Actively covered the financial sponsor group (FSG) and enjoys a good relationship with the investor &
corporate community
• Over the last couple of years, she has found interest in angel investing and been investing & mentoring in the
start-up world
SWATI KHEMANI
(CA) 3
Board of Advisors
• Patricia Perez-Coutts, CFA has a distinguished & extensive background with over 30 years of experience
managing emerging market equities. She joined Westwood Holdings Group, Inc. in 2012 as a Senior Vice
President & Portfolio Manager and led a team of analysts focused on managing emerging market equity
strategies.
• Prior to that she worked at AGF Investments Management for over 10 years, also managing emerging market
equity strategies
• She has won numerous industry accolades throughout her career, including six consecutive Morningstar
PATRICIA PEREZ- Canadian Investment Awards as Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager of the AGF Emerging Markets
COUTTS Fund
(CFA) • Patricia is also an Impact investor, a philanthropist and is the Chair of the Board of Cuso International, a
Canadian development organization and is also Chair of Viridis Terra International
• She has travelled extensively the world over the years and speaks four languages fluently
• Vivek Chhachhi is a partner of CX Advisors LLP, and currently serves as the Chief Investment Officer also
leading investments in healthcare and technology
• Vivek is serving/has served on the boards of several portfolio companies including Thyrocare, Nueclear,
Thyrocare Gulf, Healthium Medtech, Natco, Veeda, Sekhmet Pharma and Anjan Drugs
• Prior to joining the Investment Advisor in 2010, he was a director with CVCI, where he had about 15 years of
experience identifying, managing and exiting a large number of portfolio companies across a wide spectrum
of industries
VIVEK CHHACHHI
(MBA) • Vivek holds a Master’s degree in Management Studies from the Jamnalal Bajaj Institute of Management
Studies, University of Mumbai and a B.Sc. degree in Computer Science from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi
University
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Carnelian Competitive Advantage
Unique Approach, Unique Insights
PEOPLE PROCESS
• Founders are Industry veterans with strong • Unique forensic framework – “CLEAR”
complementary skill sets • Focus on quality
• Deep understanding of Capital markets & businesses • Screen for red flags
• Strong relations with corporate India/industry • Disciplined investment process
• Team of 36 passionate/driven professionals • Differentiated approach to risk management
• 100% founder owned – skin in the game • Processes driven by core values…
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Carnelian Investment Framework
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Investment Framework
Quality
Business
Management
01
Forensic Analysis - CLEAR
Cash flow analysis
Growth Liability analysis
Magic – accelerated earnings 02 Earnings quality analysis
growth & valuation re-rating Asset quality analysis
Compounder – sustainable
03 Related party & governance issues
earnings growth
Valuation
04 Reasonable valuation relative to
growth
Quality Business
• Profitable
QUALITY • Free cash flow generation
• Incremental return on capital
• Opportunity & market size
Margin of safety not only lies
• Sustainable moat
in the price, but also in the
quality of business and • Environment & socially conscious
management
Quality Management
• Integrity
Strong focus on • Passionate & driven
sustainability & governance • Efficient capital allocator
• Skin in the game
• Strong risk management culture
• Strong governance
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Investment Framework - Growth
9
Investment Framework - Forensic Analysis – “CLEAR”
Cash flow analysis
• Earnings conversion; reported vs sustainable cash flows
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Risk Approach
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Red Flags we avoid
RED FLAGS
• Aggressive accounting practices
• High financial leverage
• Low tax incidence
"Invert, always invert”
• Management having
• no skin in the game / misaligned objective
- Carl Jacobi
• a poor governance track record
• hurry to create value
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CARNELIAN STRUCTURAL SHIFT FUND
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Structural Shift Fund (CAT III - AIF)
• Fund designed to capture structural decadal shifts presenting large opportunity in
• Manufacturing led by conducive regulatory and global environment
• Tech evolution empowered by digitalization globally
• Concentrated QARP (quality companies at a reasonable price) portfolio
• Blend of mid & small cap listed companies with an option to invest upto 30% into unlisted
companies having
• niche core competence & large opportunity size
• proven track record
• impeccable management capabilities
• Stock holding : 20-25 ; Benchmark against BSE 500
• Subjected to stringent Carnelian filters & forensic checks (CLEAR framework)
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Pandemic accelerated 2 structural shifts
MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY
Manufacturing GDP set to double over
the next 5 years 26 Global
20 SA
by A
n
0b
St
- 500 1,000 1,500
n
io
og
35
at
to
row
2029-30E 1,250 25%
So Ser
as
lis
ta
om USD 225bn
ftw vice
a
gi
mi
Cl atio
fr
ou n
gr
s
row
r
m
d
2004-05 85 17%
l atfo
g
P
4
to
00
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% es bn
ic
Manufacturing Share (%) IT serv by
2025
India
Manufacturing GDP (in USD Bn)
Source: Carnelian Research, IBEF
Proven
Entrepreneurship
India hardly used non-trade tariff barriers like China/other countries which is set to change;
• No global tenders less than INR 200 cr
• No automatic FDI approval to 200 countries sharing borders
• Special registration required for participating in contracts with neighboring countries
GOI has planned substantial changes on import policies including tariff & non-tariff barriers on imports 19
Aided by cost competitiveness
Labor Cost Comparison Logistics cost at a glance Components of logistic cost (as a % of GDP)
Metric China India Vietnam Cost China India USA Cost India Developed countries
USD / Mo wages 800 200 475 Logistics performance index 3.6 3.2 3.9 Transportation 7% 5-6%
Productivity 1 2.5 1 Logistics spent as a % of GDP 18 14 8.5 Inventory cost 6.3% 2-3%
Source: Worldbank, Industry
Equalized Mo 800 500 712 Administration 0.7% 0.5-1%
Cost comparison 0 -37% -11%
Power cost is same as China & Vietnam Inefficiency set to go –DFC & Every small reform like fastag, etc. has a
infrastructure reforms
Germany 0.33 big impact on the logistics cost by
Japan 0.22 reducing the time travel by ~15-20%.
Total inefficiency 4.0%
UK 0.22
Opportunity to bring efficiency of 3-4%
USA 0.13 Theft & damages 1.1%
Indonesia 0.10 (GST, More efficient supply chain,
Longer distances 1.1%
S. Africa 0.09 Infrastructure)
China 0.08 Higher transit inventory 0.3%
India 0.08 Lower speed 0.3%
Vietnam 0.08
Higher road share 1.2%
Argentina 0.01
0 0.2 0.4 0% 5%
Source: statista.com Source: Nuvama reports
36% World’s
70-85% World 17% Capital
chemical
solar power goods exports
production
components as % of total
(ranked no. 1)
export
China will continue to be a big player; however small SHIFTs will create BIG opportunities for India 21
Which sectors will benefit
Metric Import Substitution Export Opportunity Market Consolidation
Capital goods
Defense
Building Materials
TECHNOLUTION
Software as a service
Digitalisation
(Saas)
Tech enabled
Cloud migration platform business
IT Services
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Technology – IT Services
• Covid has prompted companies worldwide to rethink & shift; Indian IT Tech companies an important clog in
the wheel
• Demand for digital spending is “global” & supply is only “local”
• IT services exports industry to grow from USD 225bn in 2022 to USD 350bn by 2026
• 50% of the revenue getting spent as salaries/wages in the economy as first order effect which will boost
consumption. Second and third order effect yet to follow.
IT Services Exports (USD bn) IT Digital Services (USD bn) ERD Industry Size (USD bn)
2025E 60
2026E 350 2025E 150
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Risk factors
• Global meltdown of economy affecting overall demand
• World’s softening stance against China
• Geo – Political risks
• Banking system risks
• Slowing down of reforms and change in government policies
• Significant currency appreciation
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PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE &
ATTRIBUTES
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Performance as on 31 st December 2023
80.0
70.0 68.0
60.0
51.7
50.0
40.0 35.3
30.0 25.3 24.9 27.5
0.0
1M 3M 6M 12M Inception CAGR Inception Absolute
Note - Inception Date -14th April 2022. Above returns are at fund level, net of all expenses and gross of taxes.
Disclaimer: Investments are subject to market risk. Past performance figures is not verified by SEBI. Past performances are not indicative of future performance. Please refer risk
associated with investment as published on our website. Above information should not be regarded as an official opinion or recommendation of any kind. 27
Faster, Stronger, Cheaper
Faster revenue & earnings
growth vs BSE 500
Stronger return on
29.3 equity
Margin of Safety
in Valuation
20.7
18.5
16.1 Minimal
13.1 13.7 Leverage
Huge
outperformance
with less volatility
0.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.0
0.1
Revenue Growth Earnings Growth ROE (FY25E) PEG Ratio D/E Ratio Portfolio Beta
CAGR (FY23-25E) CAGR (FY23-25E)
Sector Allocation
30%
25.3%
21.4%
20% 18.3%
11.4%
10%
4.9% 4.5%
2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
0%
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Fund structure
Trustee Amicorp Trustees
Carnelian Alternative
(India) Private Limited
Investment Trust
Computer Age
Carnelian Capital Sponsor RTA Management Services
Advisors LLP
Limited (CAMS)
Carnelian
Structural Shift
Carnelian Asset Investment
Fund (CSSF) Custodian Nuvama Custodial
Management & Manager
Services Limited
Advisors Pvt Ltd
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CSSF – Fund features
FUND SIZE
Category III INR 500 crore with
close ended AIF Greenshoe of INR 500 crore
TENOR
COMMITMENT AMOUNT
5 years from final close;
Minimum INR 1 crore (100% upfront) Extendable by 2 years.
INVESTMENT
Invest in the structural themes through
listed and unlisted (upto 30%) securities
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Fund Features
Key Terms
Fund Name Carnelian Structural Shift Fund
Structure Close ended Category III Alternative Investment Fund (AIF)
Investment Manager Carnelian Asset Management & Advisors Pvt Ltd
Term 60 Months (from date of final closing)
First Closure 14th April 2022
Benchmark S&P BSE 500
Trustee Amicorp Trustees (India) Private Limited
Custody Nuvama Custodial Services Limited
Legal & Tax Advisor I.C. Universal Legal, Advocates & Solicitors
Registrar & Transfer Agent Computer Age Management Services (CAMS)
Auditor NGS & Co. LLP, Chartered Accountants
Redemption# After 14th April 2024. Quarterly Redemption Window thereafter.
No specific pass-through status accorded to a Category III AIFs. Trust taxation principles to
Taxation*
apply to the AIF and practically, taxes to be discharged at the AIF level.
Note:
1. Lock-in till14.04.2024
2. Redemption Fees -
Exit window after expiry of lock-in Fees
Within 12 month 5%
12-24 month 4%
24-36 month 3%
After 36 month 2%
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Awards & Testimonials
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Awards and recognition
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What our investors say..
Farah Malik Bhanji, MD – Metro Brands
Vikas, Swati and the Carnelian team have done an excellent job managing our money. They have been one of the top
performing funds in our portfolio for the year. Having been invested with them since inception, we have seen their
strategy play out through the Covid period with great success. Carnelian’s clarity and fidelity to their thesis and process
inspires a lot of confidence and the results speak for themselves. I wish them all the best for their future endeavours and
look forward to being a part of their journey.
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What our investors say..
Apurva Parekh, Executive Director - Pidilite Industries
I am impressed by the fund’s vision, investment philosophy, diligence process and long term approach. I have known
Vikas Khemani for many years. He has deep domain knowledge and sound understanding of Indian businesses and
economy. This has allowed Vikas to consistently identify superior businesses and trends ahead of the market.
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