A Guide To Sovereign Debt Data
A Guide To Sovereign Debt Data
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published
to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers
are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its
Executive Board, or IMF management.
© 2019 International Monetary Fund 2 WP/19/195
September 2019
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to
elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are
those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,
or IMF management.
Abstract
The last decade or so has seen a mushrooming of new sovereign debt databases covering
long time spans for several countries. This represents an important breakthrough for
economists who have long sought to, but been unable to tackle, first-order questions such as
why countries have differential debt tolerance, and how debt levels affect the scope for
countercyclical policy in recessions and financial crises. This paper backdrops these recent
data efforts, identifying both the key innovations, as well as caveats that users should be
aware of. A Directory of existing publicly-available sovereign debt databases, featuring
compilations by institutions and individual researchers, is also included.
Keywords: sovereign debt, public debt, government debt, debt statistics, historical database
1
The contents of this working paper are expected to be included in the forthcoming book: S. Ali Abbas, Alex
Pienkowski, and Kenneth Rogoff (eds), Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners, Oxford
University Press.
3
Background
Over the past decade, there has been a quantum leap in the development of long-dated cross-
country sovereign debt databases that has provided both important resources for researchers,
as well as a more complete frame of reference for policymakers and investors. To understand
issues surrounding the risks and opportunities from sovereign debt, it is important to know
not only current magnitudes, maturities, and currency of denomination, but also to have
extensive historical data on these same variables. Otherwise, it is extremely difficult to
meaningfully ask questions such as “At what levels of debt do emerging markets begin to
face high risks of losing investor confidence?, Does entering a deep recession or financial
crisis with very high public debt impede a country’s ability to engage in countercyclical
fiscal policy?” This appendix showcases some of the resources now available.
It should be noted that although this topic received little attention from official lenders
(including the International Monetary Fund (IMF)) until the 2008 financial crisis, the IMF
has since devoted considerable resources and moved to the forefront of this topic (as of this
writing). The IMF’s new work begins with the publication of the historical debt database of
Abbas and others, 2 (2010)—which importantly builds on the archival research of Reinhart
and Rogoff (2009in This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly—and, more
recently, the even more ambitious IMF 2018 Global Debt Database (GDD) which now
provides the most comprehensive account of private and public debt since World War II (see
Mbaye, Moreno Badia, and Chae 2018). 3
While it may seem hard to believe, prior to Reinhart and Rogoff’s This Time is Different
work (and their two earlier 2008 NBER papers), 4 modern researchers had access to only
extremely limited long-dated historical data on total public debt. While data on public debt
issued abroad was widely available, data on domestically-issued debt was extremely sparse.
Indeed, such data was not available for most advanced economies for the period before the
1980s. The problem was worse for emerging markets and low-income countries, with studies
like Abbas and Christensen (2007) forced to use banking system claims on government as a
2
“A Historical Public Debt Database,” IMF Working Paper 10/245, also published as “Historical Patterns and
Dynamics of Public Debt—Evidence From a New Database,” IMF Economic Review, Volume 59, Issue 4.
3
“The Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources,” IMF Working Paper 18/111. For the data, see
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/05/14/Global-Debt-Database-Methodology-and-Sources-
45838. The GDD aims to address several shortcomings of previous databases. First, it takes a fundamentally
new approach to compiling historical data. The GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple
debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring greater consistency across time. Second, it more than doubles
the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been
checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample.
4
“This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,” NBER Working Paper
13882; and “The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt,” NBER Working Paper No. 13946.
4
proxy. 5 This fact (which was first emphasized in Reinhart, Rogoff, and Savastano 2003) may
sound incredible to those who are not empirical researchers using macroeconomic data. 6 The
reasons why the data was not better kept are something of a mystery, but it is nevertheless
true that long-dated historical data on domestically-issued public debt and, hence, total public
debt, was not available in any standard source, even the debt time series published by the
IMF or the World Bank. 7
This lack of historical debt data was a huge omission that, as Reinhart and Rogoff (2009)
(and in several related papers) showed, led to a blind spot in research in many areas, for
example, the risks of sovereign debt crisis, and the genesis of very high inflation.
Importantly, Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) contained extensive documentation of data sources
for constructing long-dated time series on public debt, both domestically-issued and issued
abroad, offering a blueprint for replication and extensions, including the IMF’s important
research that followed. As Reinhart and Rogoff discuss, and as others have since replicated, a
critical archival source turned out to be old volumes of the League of Nations. One fact
Reinhart and Rogoff found was that, contrary to widespread belief, many emerging markets,
including in Latin America, had been able to issue in earlier decades large quantities of long-
term debt denominated in their own currencies. For many of these countries, therefore, the
problem of “original sin” actually started with the hyperinflations of the 1980s and 1990s.
Another major gap in the data concerned the currency composition of debt. Even for debt
issued abroad, data on currency of denomination had been very limited, except for the
modern period (as for example the data employed in Bevilaqua, Bulow, and Rogoff, 1992). 8
But, again, recent work by IMF economists (notably Abbas and others, 2014) has taken large
strides in remedying this situation by providing extensive data on both currency of
denomination and maturity, data that allows far more nuanced analyses of debt vulnerabilities
than was previously possible. 9
More recently, there have been many other important advances, as embodied in the data sets
listed below. Importantly, the databases listed in this appendix are all associated with careful
scholarly research. Whereas they have been integral to construction of the IMF’s GDD, they
are of particular use for researchers precisely because there are typically associated research
5
“The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-Income
Countries and Emerging Markets,” IMF Working Paper 07/127.
6
“Debt Intolerance,” NBER Working Paper No. 9908.
7
One explanation that is sometime presented is that, until the 1980s/1990s, many countries did not have modern
debt management offices that would collect all debt data; and that these functions remained segregated in
different parts of the finance ministries/central banks. However, this cannot fully explain why total public debt
coverage was relatively good in the inter-war period, the lack of incentive to institute dedicated debt
management offices till the 1980s, or why international financial institutions did not put greater priority on
catalyzing the collection of historical domestic debt data.
8
“Official Creditor Seniority and Burden Sharing in the Former Soviet Bloc,” Brookings Papers in Economic
Activity 1.
9
“Sovereign Debt Composition in Advance Economies: A Historical Perspective,” IMF Working Paper 14/162.
5
papers with detailed discussion and documentation that aid an understanding of the data, and
potentially allow a check of the decisions made in constructing it by making reference to the
original sources.
Caveat emptor: Tedious historical and archival research lies at the heart of many of these
new data sets; it is hard enough to decide how to measure contemporaneous debt (for
example, should the central bank and central government balance sheet be integrated?, how
does one account for the debt of state-owned enterprises, how does one account for
government assets?, what about unfunded pension liabilities?) but historical ones are more
difficult, particularly in the many cases where the data had effectively been lost or forgotten
until recently—a widespread problem with public debt data. And the problems just increase
when one wants to bring in other variables, for example, in forming debt/GDP ratios.
Although some researchers seem blithely unaware of the fact, Gross Domestic Product is in
fact a relatively modern construct, developed by Simon Kuznets and his collaborators in the
mid-1930s. Economic historians have done very important work trying to artificially
reconstruct historical data (most famously, the work of the late Angus Madison who curated
data from many other researchers,
https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/), but there are huge gaps and
many assumptions are required. Indeed, even many of today’s advanced economies took
many years after the Second World War to build up their statistical capabilities so that for
quite a few states data before 1955 can be unreliable, and for some this is the case going into
the 1960s.
A second important caveat relates to cross-country and time series comparability of debt
data. Because researchers have an interest in developing long time series for as many
countries as possible, they often make expedient decisions regarding inclusion/exclusion of
data that can result in statistical inconsistencies: for instance, a long debt series for an
individual country may concatenate central government debt in the early years with general
government debt in later years (an issue made transparent in Mauro and others, 2013); 10 or
public debt numbers can be reported for two sovereigns for the same year but without noting
the differences in instrument coverage, valuation basis, and netting of assets. 11
With this background, readers should be able to better appreciate both the major gaps in
sovereign debt data, as well as the important advances recently made by institutions and
researchers to address those gaps. The Directory of Sovereign Debt Databases that follows
provides a state-of-play on these advances, by providing a listing of known sovereign debt
datasets currently available for use by researchers and practitioners.
10
“A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy,” IMF Working Paper No. 13/5, International Monetary
Fund, Washington, DC.
11
To be able to analyze and balance the competing considerations of larger sample and comparability, and to
appropriately qualify their conclusions, researchers may find useful the international methodological standards
on compiling public sector debt (e.g., the IMF’s Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide for Compilers and Users,
2013 and Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014).
6
Appendix Table 1 provides a tabular summary of the databases included in the Directory.
These are listed in alphabetical order and subdivided into two broad categories: Researcher
databases, and Institutional databases. For each database, information is provided on time
and country coverage; as well on the types of variables included; these broadly fall into four
categories: debt-to-GDP levels, debt structure (currency, maturity, holder profile);
crises/restructurings; and other public finance.
A. Researcher Databases
1. “A Historical Public Debt Database,” IMF Working Paper No. 10/245, International
Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 12
Authors: S. M. Ali Abbas, Nazim Belhocine, Asmaa El-Ganainy, and Mark Horton
Website: https://www.imf.org/~/media/Websites/IMF/imported-
datasets/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/Data/_wp10245.ashx
Description: This database provides a very long time series of debt-to-GDP ratios for almost
all IMF member countries. The earliest data point starts from 1692. Most G-7 countries and a
few other advanced countries are covered since 1880 and the general coverage starts from
12
Also published as “Historical Patterns and Dynamics of Public Debt—Evidence From a New Database,” IMF
Economic Review Volume 59, Issue 4.
8
1970. The database is compiled by combing various cross-country databases such as the
IMF’s World Economic Output and Statistical Handbooks from The League of Nations and
the United Nations. Other official government publications and databases compiled by other
previous researchers are also used.
Notes for researchers: This database aims to provide general government debt-to-GDP
ratios. However, in a lot of cases (especially for the period before 1980), central government
data was reported where data for general government was not available. Also, in the
database, debt is scaled to nominal GDP. However, GNP and NNP were used when GDP was
not available. Some data smoothing was applied when transiting from one source to another,
but larger breaks were indicated in the database. This database does not disaggregate public
debt into external and domestic.
Country coverage: 178 countries
Time coverage: 1692–2018 (partial coverage)
Frequency: Annual
Notes for researchers: Each debt component (by currency, maturity, holder profile and
marketability) is scaled to central government debt, except for Australia (sum of
commonwealth and state debt) and Italy (general government debt). The construction of long
series requiring combining data from different sources which in a number of cases resulted in
significant breaks in the series (e.g., Australian data in 1950). In some other cases data is
available but was not included in the data set as further verification of their accuracy is
needed (e.g., German debt composition data for the initial post-Second World War years).
Country coverage: 13 advanced economies
Time coverage: 1900–2011
Frequency: Annual
4. “Tracking Global Demand for Sovereign Debt,” IMF Working Paper WP/14/39 (and
WP/12/284), International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC
Authors: Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda
Website: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Tracking-Global-
Demand-for-Emerging-Market-Sovereign-Debt-41399
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Tracking-Global-Demand-for-
Advanced-Economy-Sovereign-Debt-40135
Description: The data set provides estimates of investor holdings of government debt of
twenty-four emerging market economies and twenty-four major advanced economies. The
investor base is grouped into six classes: domestic central bank, domestic banks, domestic
nonbanks, foreign official sector, foreign banks, and foreign nonbanks. All data are either in
face value or adjusted for valuation changes, where appropriate, to remove price
revaluations.
Notes for researchers: This database is a consolidation of multiple debt databases (including
International Financial Statistics (IFS), Bank of International Settlement (BIS), European
Central Bank (ECB), Eurostat, Consolidated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), Currency
Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), and Quarterly External Debt
Statistics (QEDS)) with authors’ estimations. It is subject to various measurement errors.
(1) Estimates for foreign central banks’ holdings may be understated. In this paper, foreign
central banks’ holdings are the sum of government securities held by foreign central banks as
reserve assets and foreign official loans and the data is largely based on IMF’s COFFER and
CPIS. Other types of foreign assets that are not included as reserve assets are not included in
this calculation. (2) Estimates for foreign bank holdings rely on BIS locational banking
statistics. In that sense, some of those estimates may be overstated for countries where there
is a large difference between locational and consolidated BIS statistics. (3) Foreign and
domestic nonbanks are calculated as implied values in this paper which may include
measurement errors.
Country coverage: 24 Emerging markets and 24 advanced economies
Time coverage: 2004–18
Frequency: Quarterly
10
8. “Public Debt around the World: A New Dataset of Central Government Debt”
Authors: Dany Jaimovich, and Ugo Panizza
Website: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504850701719785
Description: This database presents a complete series of central government debt for eighty-
nine countries including all the major economies except the Eastern European Transition
States over the 1991–2005 period and for seven other countries for the 1993–2005 period.
Notes for researchers: In this database, public debt is defined as gross central government
debt. Although, most of the data is from official sources, due to different fiscal centralization
level, the exact reporting standard can still vary from country to country.
Country coverage: 96 countries
Time coverage: 1991–2005
Frequency: Annual (partially covered)
Website: https://www.gracielakaminsky.com/databases
Description: The authors compiled information for six data series: exports (in British
pounds), terms of trade (1900=100), international issuance relative to U.K. export trend,
world imports (in British pounds), U.K. real interest rate, and debt service relative to the
U.K. export trend.
Notes for researchers: The database captures data from 1800 to 1960, and data are
presented in British pounds. Researchers should notice that Argentina, Brazil, and Chile
started reporting export data since the early nineteenth century. But export data for
Colombia, Peru, Mexico, and Uruguay are derived by using mirrored data of their main
trading partners in the nineteenth century.
Country coverage: 7 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and
Uruguay)
Time coverage: 1800–1960 (partially covered)
Frequency: Annual
11. “A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy,” IMF Working Paper No.
13/5, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC
Authors: Paolo Mauro, Rafael Romeu, Ariel Binder and Asad Zaman
Website: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/A-Modern-History-of-
Fiscal-Prudence-and-Profligacy-40222
Description: This database provides very long time series on various fiscal variables for a
wide range of countries. It covers not only public debt stock but also the related fiscal
balance and its subcomponents. Specifically, the dataset includes fiscal revenues, primary
expenditures, government debt, interest paid on public debt and gross domestic product for
fifty-five countries and for up to two hundred years. About half of the data came from
publicly available cross-country sources such as IMF’s World Economic Outlook,
International Financial Statistics, OECD Analytical Database, the Statistical Yearbooks of
the League of Nations, Montevideo-Oxford Latin American Database, and some previous
work done by Marc Flandreau, Frèdèric Zumer and Brian Mitchell. The other half of the data
is collected from country-specific sources.
Notes for researchers: Coverage of the government sector varies from country to country
mainly due to data limitations. The site reports at general government level where data was
available. However, in most cases, general government data is difficult to collect for earlier
years. In that sense, most observations before the 1960s cover only central government and
latter switched to general government. Structural breaks are expected generally in the 1960s
and 1970s. Those breaks are recorded in dummy variables.
Country coverage: 55 countries (24 advanced economies and 31 emerging and low-income
economies)
Time coverage: 1800–2011
Frequency: Annual
13
Description: This database provides data on the stock of domestic public debt, collected
from various previous works. It covers forty-four low-income countries for the period 1970–
2010.
Notes for researchers: The exact definition of domestic debt is very burly. In most cases, it
is defined as the total public debt subtracted by public external debt. But the exact definition
can vary based on data sources.
Country coverage: 44 low-income countries
Time coverage: 1970–2010
Frequency: Annual
15. “Dates for Banking Crises, Currency Crashes, Sovereign Domestic or External
Default (or Restructuring), Inflation Crises, and Stock Market Crashes (Varieties)”
Authors: Carmen M. Reinhart
Website: http://www.carmenreinhart.com/data/browse-by-topic/topics/7/
Description: This database includes five series data for a variety of financial crises: currency
crisis, inflation crisis, stock market crisis, sovereign domestic debt crisis, sovereign external
debt crisis, and banking crisis. Stock market crashes are included for a smaller set of
countries subject to equity price data availability. Finally, the author includes two data series:
a yearly tally of crises “varieties” and a dummy variable indicating the year of independence
(if applicable). This database is an extension of Reinhart and Rogoff’s earlier work published
in 2008 “This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crisis”
https://www.nber.org/papers/w13882.
Notes for researchers: The database covers crises varieties from 1800 to 2010. Please note
that Stock Market Crashes are blank when there are no stock prices in time series. Also, the
year of independence is included in the database, if the country went independent before
1800, the whole series will be a column of 1s.
Country coverage: 70 countries
Time coverage: 1800–2010
Frequency: Annual
external) gross central government debt/GDP, total (domestic plus external) gross general
government debt/GDP, and total (public plus private) gross external debt/GDP.
Notes for Researchers: The coverage of debt data varies from country to country due to data
availability. The data source of each year has been included in the database and the
compositions of the debt data for each country are also included in the database. Please
notice that most of the data series are in percentage to GDP, but there are some series
reported in percentage to GNP. This database extends the database extensively documented
in Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff’s 2008 paper “This Time is Different: A Panoramic
View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crisis,” https://www.nber.org/papers/w13882. This
paper, and their later 2009 book This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,
both contain extensive discussion of previously unexploited resources that allowed, for the
first time, the construction of long-dated public debt series which had previously been
available only for a few countries. Reinhart and Rogoff use their debt data series in “The
Forgotten History of Domestic Debt,” https://www.nber.org/papers/w13946, (later published
with minor revisions in 2011 in the Economic Journal, 121 (552), pp. 319–50), as well as in
their 2011 paper, Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “From Financial Crash to Debt
Crisis,” American Economic Review, 101, 1676–706.
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/from_financial_crash.pdf. Importantly, that
paper also posted the debt to GDP time series
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/53_data_0.xls. The data had earlier been posted
in 2010. The data set is also used in Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart, and Kenneth
S. Rogoff, 2012. “Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800,”
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26 (3), pp. 69–86.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.69. The data, including not only
debt/GDP Data going back to 1800 but associated interest rate series, is found at
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.69. Finally, a very early nascent
version of the Reinhart–Rogoff debt database is employed in Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth
Rogoff, and Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. “Debt Intolerance,” Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity, 1: 1–74. https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/51_bpea2003.pdf.
Country coverage: 70 countries
Time coverage: 1692–2010 (partial coverage)
Frequency: Annual
17. “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” (Princeton University
Press, 2009)
Authors: Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff
Website: http://www.reinhartandrogoff.com/data/
Description: The database contains twelve datasets that authors prepared in the publication.
It includes world crises indices, crises, debt to GDP ratios, exchange rates, gold standard
dates, inflation, silver-based exchange rates, and other related datasets.
Notes for Researchers: This data source also provides all tables, figures, and raw data for
the publication. The majority of the data series are updated to 2017. Importantly, the
16
appendix to the 2009 book contains extensive discussion and documentation of sources to
facilitate replication and extension.
Country coverage: Varies by dataset
Time coverage: 1800–2017 (Varies by dataset)
Frequency: Annual
B. Institutional Databases
Description: In order to measure the sovereign debt in default, the Bank of Canada has
developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults. This database includes the total
debt in default by creditor (IMF, IBRD, Paris Club, private creditors, FC bank loans, FC
bonds, LC debts) and by debtor (advanced economies, emerging/frontier markets, HIPC
countries).
Country coverage: 145 countries
Time coverage: 1960–2017
Frequency: Annual
Description: This database contains more than 190 public debt-related series. Among the
more important variables are debt maturity, bank loans, debt issued in foreign/domestic
currency, exchange rates, external/internal legislation debt, etc.
Notes for researchers: The time coverage of the database is from 2006 to 2016, but 2006–
08 data are annual data, and semi-annual data are available from 2009 to 2016.
Country coverage: 26 Latin-American countries
Time coverage: 2H2006–2H2016
Frequency: Semi-annual
Time coverage: 1950–2017 (partially covered); updated annually with lag T+12
Frequency: Annual
Time coverage: 1980–present (Partial coverage from 1980 to 2000; most countries covered
after 2000)
Frequency: Annual
published individually by countries that subscribe to the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination
Standard (SDDS). Other than the core set of data series, countries are also encouraged to
provide data on domestic-foreign currency breakdown; forward debt service schedule, and
principal and interest payments due in one year or less. But coverage for those data series
varies by country.
Country coverage: 40 developing and low-income countries
Time coverage: 1998Q1–Present
Frequency: Quarterly