A project has three key elements:
Completion Date - when the benefits are realised (Throughput)
Scope or specifications - the definition of what is needed to be
achieved so that benefits will be realised.
Budget - the money invested to get the benefits
Money Benefits
Project
Managing Uncertainty
Often projects
Often projects Often scope or
have difficulty
have difficulty specifications are
staying within
finishing on time cut from a project
budget
THE WAY WE
MANAGE
UNCERTAINTY
IN PROJECTS?
PERT & CPM network schedules are extremely resource
dependent.
◦ project schedules sensitive to resource availability
◦ critical project resources must be available the right time for
the schedule to work as it is intended.
Project managers need to protect the schedule slack (float)
throughout the project.
Why task deadlines are counterproductive?
◦ Resources held accountable for meeting their estimates have
strong incentive to pad those estimates with “safety time” to
assure ~90% success probability
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You are asked when you can have a specific project task
ready. You are already busy. There may be some uncertainty
you will have to deal with in doing the task.
Probability of Task Duration Time
80 - 90 %
50 %
A B C
With no difficulties at all, time A is a very slight possibility.
With some surprises, time B is very likely.
If a major problems occur, time C is likely.
Which time are you likely to give? Probably C, maybe even C+.
Some Issues with Traditional Scheduling
• What happens once estimates have been padded?
• Student syndrome
• Where people delay doing things until right
before the deadline.
• Parkinson’s Law
• Work expands to fill available time
• Murphy’s Law
• Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.
• No time to cope with unexpected obstacles if
safety time has already been used up by starting
late or increasing scope.
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The Student Syndrome
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Another Issue: Multitasking
• Reasons for bad multitasking
•Each PM wants to see some progress, even if small
•If one has safety time on a task, one may decide to interrupt it to
work on something else that may have an earlier deadline
The multiplying effect of multi-tasking
In order to keep each project on
Task A track, a resource does half of task A,
Project 1 then half of task B, then half of task C,
One Week then finishes task A, then B, then C.
Task B
How long does each task take to
Project 2 complete?
One Week What happened to the safety time?
Task C
Project 3
One Week 1/2 A 1/2 B 1/2 C 1/2 A 1/2 B 1/2 C
How Long?
Delays are passed on — gains are not
• Merging paths don’t allow us
to benefit from tasks
completed early. Task A
• Each task needs 5 days. 5 3 Days
X
1. What’s the impact on the
total project if Task A is done
in only 3 days? Task B Task D
2. What if Task C takes 8 days? 5 Days 10 Days
3. What if Tasks A, B, and C, all
get done in 2 days? (Will
Task D be ready to start 3 Task C
days early?) X
5 8 Days
More Issues with Traditional Scheduling
• Little incentive to finish tasks early
• Early finish may lead managers to discount future estimates
• If a task does finish early, usually little benefit to project
• Resources to begin successor task may not be available
• Multitasking leads to inefficiency
• Repeated context switching overhead due to loss of focus
• Tasks not completed, so successor tasks can’t start
• Outcome in reality
• Safety time nearly always used up
• Even padded estimates often exceeded (or met with
difficulty)
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Critical Chain Project Management
(CCPM)
• Similar to the Critical Path method, identify the critical
tasks, and the timeline needed to complete a project.
• CCPM goes one step further by considering
the resources (people, equipment, physical space,
materials) needed to complete the project.
• The Critical Chain is ‘the longest path in the schedule
and considers activity interdependence and resource
constraints.’
• Includes the set of activities that, if delayed, will extend the
end date of the project.
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Solution: Critical Chain Scheduling
• Three main parts of a critical chain
• the critical path, the feeding chain, and buffers.
• Removes buffers from individual tasks
Buffers are strategic
safeguards inserted into the
critical chain to ensure a
project continues to run
smoothly, and any unforeseen
circumstances don’t disrupt
the project delivery date.
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Critical Chain Scheduling
• A project buffer or additional time added before project’s due
date.
• Feeding buffers or additional time added before tasks on the
critical path.
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Resources in Critical Chain Scheduling
• The critical chain method also focuses on task
dependencies, but it also considers the resources needed
to complete a project.
• To meet uncertainty, the critical chain method builds
resource buffers (excess resources to act as a barrier) into
the project timeline.
• Unlike the critical path method, which only focuses on
when tasks are completed, the critical chain method
dictates project success by how quickly resource buffers
are consumed.
• If your team hasn't used any resource buffers, your project is
progressing successfully.
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Summary: Three types of buffers
• Project buffers: The extra time that's placed between the final
task and the end of the project.
• Gives team members a chance to catch up on any outstanding project
tasks they couldn’t get to earlier.
• Feeding buffers: The extra time that's placed between the
feeding chain (also known as the non-critical chain) and the
critical chain.
• Prevents any delays from the feeding chain affecting the critical chain.
• Resource buffers: You set aside resources in case the critical
chain is in need of extra supplies—like extra team members to
have on hand, additional equipment, or help from a third-
party.
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Recommended Reading
• https://www.geniuserp.com/resources/blog/what-you-need-to-
know-about-critical-chain-project-management
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